Opinion
U.S. policy in the Middle East and aggression toward Iran
The United States continues to menace Iran. It is deploying naval armadas and additional military forces to the region to intimidate Tehran. Simultaneously, it aims to debilitate the country through economic sanctions and by lending support to domestic anti-government activities. However, it must not be forgotten that Iran—no matter how weakened it may become—possesses a state tradition, a profound institutional memory, an experienced military, and military technology that are incomparably stronger than those of Iraq or Syria.
There are, of course, significant reasons for the United States’ aggressive posture. In recent years, its influence—both globally and in the Middle East—has been waning; its hegemonic capacity is eroding, and its control over the strategic environment is weakening. The U.S. explicitly admitted as much in its defense strategy document released at the end of 2025. It no longer possesses the power to project force into every corner of the globe. It lacks the capacity to maintain occupying forces in two countries simultaneously. Yet, at the turn of the century, it did exactly that: occupying Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. It was capable of effecting regime change in three countries through “Color Revolutions”—as seen in Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004), and Kyrgyzstan (2005).
The U.S. no longer commands such power. This decline is one of the drivers behind its fury and its emphasis on hard power. The U.S. failed to impede China’s rise or prevent Russia from rapidly recovering and expanding its influence. Beyond the growing footprint of these two powers in the Middle East, Washington was also unable to prevent the strengthening of their relations with Iran. The U.S. could not replicate in Iran what it accomplished in Iraq and Syria. Indeed, doing so would be exceptionally difficult.
For a considerable time, the U.S. has prioritized the containment of China, aligning its political, military, and diplomatic assets accordingly. Consequently, rather than intervening directly in Middle Eastern crises, it pushes its regional allies to the forefront. It demands that these allies seize the initiative. It prefers proxy wars, increasingly activating terrorist organizations and non-state actors. It resorts more frequently to social engineering, perception management, psychological warfare, hybrid warfare, and asymmetric warfare tactics. Its actions in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iran, Yemen, and Sudan serve as proof of this shift.
Iran was the regional actor that benefited most from the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Iranian influence in Syria was already deeply rooted historically. Furthermore, Iran distinguished itself through its anti-Israel stance and its tensions with Saudi Arabia. As a result, Iran steadily increased its influence in the Middle East for years, up until a few years ago.
U.S. priorities in the Middle East
The United States is an imperialist state. Therefore, its priorities regarding the Middle East are numerous and diverse, encompassing geopolitical, strategic, and economic dimensions, as well as aspects related to the region’s rich energy resources and transit routes.
If one were to rank these priorities from the U.S. perspective, the security of Israel would always occupy the first position. Subsequent items would include the control of energy resources and routes, the encirclement of Iran, the reduction of Iranian influence, regime change in Tehran, the establishment of a Kurdish state, the rollback of China’s increasing influence, the halting of Russia’s growing weight, and the support of Saudi Arabia and the Arab nations it leads.
U.S. interest in Middle Eastern energy resources dates back more than a century. For instance, on May 31, 1919, the U.S. Department of State sent the following directive to all its diplomatic missions worldwide: “Wherever petroleum is found or is likely to be found, report on the status of control over those oil resources, prospects for development, and opportunities for U.S. participation in oil production there.” In other words, even then, the U.S. had set its sights on the Middle East, on Mesopotamia, and on the territories of the dismantling Ottoman Empire. On May 3, 1920, Bedford, an executive at Standard Oil of New Jersey, obtained the text of an agreement made on April 27 between France and Britain in San Remo to partition the oil in the aforementioned territories. He obtained this via French delegates in San Remo and transmitted the document to Washington through the U.S. embassy. Washington was furious. France was to receive a 25% share of Mesopotamian oil in exchange for its docility regarding British control. If the oil were to be operated by private companies, this share would remain 25%. Oil operated by private companies in this region would remain under permanent British control. It became clear that the U.S. had to act immediately to protect its rights in the Middle East. (Lawrence Evans, United States Policy and the Partition of Türkiye, 1914-1924, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1965).
When analyzing U.S. global and Middle East policies, the country’s imperialist character must always be taken into account. As an imperialist state, it seeks to access new markets and seize energy resources and precious minerals. Its priorities, threat definitions, objectives, and alliances are shaped accordingly. Looking at the post-World War II era, when the U.S. significantly increased its global weight, one observes the following: The bipolar order and the Cold War years had begun. Most colonies had gained their independence. Among these newly independent nations were countries exploited by Europeans since the 15th century, as well as those that had fallen under the sway of imperialism in the 19th century. These countries were not industrialized enough to be capitalist, nor did they possess a working class or class consciousness sufficient to adopt the socialist model. The majority of these countries were located in the Middle East and Africa.
During the Cold War, the U.S. viewed the USSR and communism as threats. It sought to prevent the development of anti-imperialist leftist currents and anti-imperialist nationalist movements within the Third World and among countries joining the Non-Aligned Movement. In the Middle East, the U.S. perceived Arab socialism—distinguished by its nationalist, anti-imperialist, pro-independence, and leftist character—as a threat. These movements in Arab countries were influenced by the tradition of the Committee of Union and Progress [CUP] in Türkiye, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and the Kemalist Revolution. The movement led by Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt in the 1950s (his name derives from Djemal Pasha, one of the leaders of the CUP) and the Ba’ath movement [meaning “Resurrection”] which rose with similar claims in Syria and Iraq (though there are differences between the Syrian and Iraqi Ba’ath movements), unsettled the U.S. during those years.
The establishment of close relations between these Arab movements and the USSR also alarmed the U.S. In response, Washington supported Islamist movements in these countries to counter them. The “Green Belt Project,” aimed at encircling the USSR with Islamist regimes in Muslim countries, was activated during this period. Through this project, brought to the agenda in 1977 by Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Islamist currents were supported in Türkiye, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Saudi-U.S. relations developed further, and the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) in Egypt received significant support from the U.S.
Dimensions of U.S.-Iran tension
With the overthrow of the pro-American Shah of Iran in 1979 as a result of the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the rise of Khomeini to power, the importance the U.S. attached to the Green Belt Project increased further. The U.S., which desired full alignment from the four countries within the scope of the Green Belt Project (Türkiye, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan), lost its influence in Iran when the Islamic Revolution took place in 1979. Immediately thereafter, it incited Iraq against Iran. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the Arab world (excluding Syria) and the West supported Iraq. The total loss of life for Iran and Iraq exceeded one million. The economies and industries of both countries suffered massive blows. Throughout the war, Western arms manufacturers sold vast quantities of weapons to both belligerents, as well as to countries with close U.S. ties, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain.
Iran is one of the pivotal countries of the region. Encircling Iran and changing its regime are among the United States’ priorities. To this end, it has been applying economic sanctions for years. It isolates Iran politically and diplomatically. It threatens and pressures the country militarily. It attempts to obstruct Iran’s nuclear activities. The U.S. views Iran as one of the greatest obstacles to a Kurdish state, which is intended to be established through the partitioning of four regional countries (Iraq, Syria, Iran, Türkiye). Israel, one of the U.S.’s two strategic partners (the other being the UK), is also in a state of constant tension with Iran; in 2025, the two countries launched air attacks against one another for 12 days. The two states view each other as existential threats. In recent years, Israel has dealt heavy blows to Iranian-backed Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The regime change in Syria and the increasing influence of the U.S. and Israel over Damascus constitute a major defeat for Iran.
The U.S. is also attempting to block Iran’s oil exports. It imposes sanctions—or threatens to impose them—on countries that trade with Iran. It has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization and pressured the European Union to adopt a similar decision. The U.S. also pressures Egypt and Saudi Arabia to keep their distance from Iran, forcing the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia to take a stance against Tehran.
Will U.S. sanctions against Iran achieve their objective?
Iran has lost significant influence following the overthrow of Assad in Syria—a country where it had invested and provided massive support for years—and the successive blows dealt by Israel to Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Iranian-backed “Shiite Crescent,” the “Axis of Resistance,” and Iran’s proxy forces beyond its borders have suffered heavy losses. Currently, only the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen continue their struggle.
The sanctions and economic embargoes the U.S. has applied since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its efforts to incite the public to rebellion against the regime, and its attempts to render PJAK (the Iranian extension of the PKK terrorist organization) more effective, have not yet yielded the hoped-for results. While attempting to encircle Iran, the U.S. has also sought to weaken it through proxy wars. Yet, following the U.S. occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran actually increased its influence in the region.
U.S. economic sanctions have been effective; they have hindered Iran’s technological development and dragged down its oil and natural gas exports. However, they have thus far failed to bring Iran to its knees. Poverty, unemployment, the high cost of living, corruption, and repression within the country have fueled anger toward the regime. Nevertheless, it has been observed that when faced with foreign intervention, the Iranian people set aside their grievances and ideological differences to defend their country against external threats. Furthermore, possessing nuclear deterrence is a goal upon which different political views in the country converge and agree.
In conclusion, Iran is a country with a strong state tradition and deep historical accumulation. It utilizes Persian nationalism, the Islamic Revolution, Shi’ism, anti-Americanism, anti-imperialist rhetoric, and enmity toward Zionism and Israel in its foreign policy—deploying each at the right place, at the right time, in the right dose, and according to the interlocutor. Even if Iran has taken heavy blows in recent years, the influence it has achieved as a regional actor, its alliance relations, military power, state structure, and national culture remain significant. One must not forget that despite anti-regime opposition and significant problems on the domestic front, Iran will resist the U.S., and even in the worst-case scenario, it remains a state incomparably stronger than Syria or Iraq.
Opinion
A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order
The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.
The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”
One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.
The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.
Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.
Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.
On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.
Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.
When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.
The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.
The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.
The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.
Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).
X: @umur_tugay
Opinion
NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism
Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.
As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.
In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.
Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.
Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion
NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.
And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.
The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.
The collapse of the Atlantic system
Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.
In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.
Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.
For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.
Opinion
Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing
Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.
For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.
Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.
It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.
The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.
Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.
This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.
For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.
China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.
All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.
The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.
Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.
Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.
Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).
X: @umur_tugay
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