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US lifts Belarus potassium sanctions after 123 political prisoners are released

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The US administration has lifted sanctions on potassium exports, one of the most comprehensive restrictions on the Belarusian economy.

The decision was announced following talks in Minsk between US President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy to Belarus, John Cole, and President Alexander Lukashenko.

Immediately after the diplomatic contacts, the Belarusian government released 123 people, including high-profile opposition figures who were Lukashenko’s rivals in the 2020 elections.

Sanctions lifted on Trump’s orders

In a statement to the Pul Pervogo channel, known for its proximity to the Belarusian presidency, US President Trump’s special envoy, John Cole, stated that the lifting of sanctions is part of Washington’s new policy.

Cole emphasized that the negotiations were “very productive” and that relations between the two countries have entered a normalization process.

In his statement, Cole said:

“On President Trump’s instructions, the US is lifting sanctions on potassium. I think this is a very good move by the US for Belarus. We are lifting the sanctions as of now. As relations between the two countries normalize, more sanctions will be lifted.”

The US delegation, which arrived in Minsk on December 12, discussed the war in Ukraine, the situation in Venezuela, and bilateral relations with Lukashenko behind closed doors.

Cole expressed hope that an agreement would be reached to lift all sanctions in the future.

John Cole

John Cole

Opposition leaders sent to Ukraine

Simultaneously with the announcement of the sanctions decision, Belarusian President Lukashenko signed a pardon for 123 prisoners.

Among those released were Viktor Babariko, the former head of Belgazprombank who was seen as Lukashenko’s strongest rival in the 2020 presidential election; his campaign manager, Maria Kolesnikova; and Nobel Peace Prize laureate and human rights defender Ales Bialiatski.

Contrary to previous practices, 114 of the released individuals were sent to Ukraine instead of Lithuania.

Speaking at a press conference at a hospital in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, Maria Kolesnikova acknowledged the actors who played a role in her release.

Mariya Kolesnikova

Mariya Kolesnikova

“I thank US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Alexander Lukashenko for my freedom,” Kolesnikova said.

Stating that her health had deteriorated during her five-year imprisonment, Kolesnikova mentioned that she plans to spend time with her family.

Viktor Babariko said he was “completely isolated from the outside world in prison, had no access to information sources, and thought everything was over when he was released, but saw that the struggle continues.”

Viktor Babariko

Viktor Babariko

Nobel laureate Bialiatski deported

Among those released, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski shared details of his release process in an interview with the Viasna Human Rights Centre.

Bialiatski stated that before being taken out of prison, the manuscripts of two books he had written, along with his letters and case notes, were confiscated. He described being taken to the Lithuanian border blindfolded.

Bialiatski recounted his experience in these words:

“Many Belarusian human rights defenders and journalists are still in prison. It is crucial to secure their release and to end the witch hunt and the search for ‘enemies of the people’ in Belarus. We must stop the repression; otherwise, the bargaining over political prisoners will go on forever. I will continue my work. This is my debt to Belarusian society.”

Ales Bialiatski

Ales Bialiatski

A thousand more prisoners could be released

Speaking to the Reuters news agency, US Special Envoy John Cole signaled that the releases would continue.

Cole noted that about 1,000 more political prisoners are planned to be released in the coming months, adding that they could be freed in “a single large group.”

“I believe this is more than possible. We are moving in the right direction; there is momentum. When this happens, the US will lift a large portion of the sanctions on Belarus. I think this is a fair exchange,” he commented.

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya criticized the releases being conducted via Ukraine, arguing that Lukashenko “changed the plan at the last minute to give the impression that he controls everything.”

Potassium exports are the lifeblood of the economy

In August 2021, the US administration imposed sanctions on the state-owned company Belaruskali, citing the crackdown on protests in Belarus.

This decision was the first sectoral sanction targeting the Belarusian economy.

Before the sanctions, Belarus accounted for approximately 20% of global potassium chloride exports, selling its products to more than 100 countries.

According to official data, potassium sales generated $2.8 billion in annual revenue for Belarus before the pandemic.

This figure corresponded to 4% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 7% of its total export revenues.

Following the sanctions, the Minsk government was forced to redirect its export routes to Asian markets and sell its products at discounted prices.

The New York Times, in a report published in February of this year, wrote that a “major deal” could be struck between Washington and Minsk, under which sanctions on the banking and potassium sectors would be eased in exchange for the release of political prisoners.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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