Opinion
2025 will be a year of hard choices for Iran
What we have seen in Iran in the past year is more than a European will see in his whole life. I read this sentence on an Iranian’s X (formerly Twitter) page a few months ago. Interestingly, on my last trip to Iran, a taxi driver said exactly the same thing and mentioned that he was tired of reading the news.
Indeed, Iran has experienced such extraordinary times in the past year that this year can be described as the longest for the country in several decades. Any one of the events Iranians experienced in 2024 would have been a historic milestone for any country. But in 2024, Iran experienced all these events together.
Perhaps the most important feature of 2024 is that the problems experienced will be carried over to 2025 without the slightest solution. This makes it uncertain whether Iranians will have a calmer year next year than they did in 2024.
So, what were the most important events in Iran last year?
Domestic politics:
Parliamentary elections:
The 12th Majlis elections of the Islamic Republic of Iran were held on 1 March 2024 and as expected, the conservatives managed to gain a majority in the Majlis. Only 40 per cent of eligible voters turned out for the election, the lowest turnout in the political history of the Islamic Republic. This was a major turning point in the political history of post-revolutionary Iran. Opponents saw it as a symbol of popular disenchantment with Iran’s current political system, while the pro-government camp interpreted it as a message of protest from the Iranian people to the government.
The disqualification of many reformists, and even critical conservative parliamentary candidates by the Council for the Protection of the Constitution, preventing them from taking part in the elections, was seen as the main reason for these political reactions. The poor economic situation was also seen as another reason.
Many believed that the 12th Parliament was designed to be the most harmonious and cooperative with the government of then President Ibrahim Raisi. The extremely low voter turnout in large cities and the higher turnout in smaller cities was interpreted as an indication of changes in the political sociology of Iranian society.
Election of the Assembly of Experts:
Simultaneously with the parliamentary elections, the Iranian people elected 88 mujtahids, whose nominations had been approved by the Council for the Protection of the Constitution, to the sixth term of the Assembly of Experts (Majlis-e Khobregan).
According to Article 107 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Assembly of Experts is made up of ‘qualified’ faqihs who are responsible for electing and dismissing the Leader and monitoring his conduct. Each term of this Assembly lasts 8 years and is of particular importance as it is responsible for overseeing the behavior of the Leader and, in the event of the death of the current Leader, selecting the next Leader.
Many believe that given the age of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the next leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is likely to be elected by the members of the Assembly of Experts in its sixth term. Therefore, the Assembly of Experts elections in this term are more important than in previous terms.
Perhaps because of this importance, the Council for the Protection of the Constitution, which is tasked with approving the nominations of representatives to the Assembly of Experts, has conducted a very strict vetting process this term, rejecting the nominations of those who have previously served multiple terms in the Assembly of Experts, such as former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
It is believed that this strict vetting process was carried out in order to create a more unified structure in the Assembly of Experts and to minimize controversy and disagreement in the selection of the next Leader.
Death of the President
On 19 May, when all the news agencies were analysing the end of the political stalemate between the two neighbouring countries following the inauguration of the joint Kizil Kalesi border dam in the presence of the Iranian and Azerbaijani presidents, the news suddenly broke of the ’emergency landing of the presidential helicopter’.
An hour later, it was discovered that the communication line of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and the accompanying delegation had been cut. Also, on board the helicopter was Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahiyan, Governor of East Azerbaijan Malik Rahmati, Governor-Faqih Representative of East Azerbaijan Province Seyyed Mohammad Ali Al-Hashim, Commander of the Presidential Protection Unit and three pilots.
The rescue operation was hampered by the dense forest and poor weather conditions (rain and dense fog). Various drones, search and rescue teams and trained search dogs were used, and it took 15 hours to obtain definitive information on the condition of the President and his entourage. The news of the President’s death was finally confirmed the following morning.
The president’s death came at a time when he was seen as one of the contenders for the future leadership of Iran, and many believed that the new Majlis would give full support to his government.
On the one hand, the death has led to foreign policy uncertainties at a time of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel over events in Gaza, and on the other it has raised the possibility of an assassination attempt on the president. Although the official state reports have explained that the main cause of the helicopter crash was dense fog and bad weather conditions, the public is not convinced by the following questions Why did only the helicopter carrying the President and the Foreign Minister crash, and why was the helicopter not located for 15 hours?
Early presidential elections:
Following the death of Ebrahim Raisi, presidential elections were held with 6 candidates, based on Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, which stipulates that “in cases such as the death, resignation, illness or dismissal of the President of the Republic, the interim Presidential Council is obliged to ensure the election of a new President within fifty days at the latest, and during this period it assumes the presidential powers except for the referendum”.
This election was also overshadowed by the process of eliminating candidates by the Council for the Protection of the Constitution. One reformist candidate stood against 5 conservative candidates. Many prominent figures from the reformist or moderate conservative wing were disqualified and could not take part in the elections. From the reformist wing, only Masoud Pezeshkian, former Minister of Health and a member of the cabinet of Mohammad Khatami, the leading figure of the reformist movement, managed to participate in the elections.
Pezeshkian won 53.6% of the vote, defeating his ultra-conservative rival Said Jalili, and was elected president. He campaigned on promises to abolish the morality police, economic reforms and a diplomatic opening.
The reformist movement continues to support Pezeshkian’s presidency, viewing the conservative representatives in parliament as a minority elected with little public participation. However, according to the election results, Pezeshkian received the direct support of only 25% of the population. The success or failure of the Pezeshkian government will be discussed in another article.
Ongoing economic crisis:
In 2024, as in previous years, Iran continued to struggle with the economic crisis. The value of the national currency fell by 100% in one year, and the inflation rate continued to hover around 40%, according to the Central Bank. This situation has become a chronic disease of the Iranian economy. From 2020 to the end of 2024, the value of the Iranian national currency fell from 13,000 to 89,000 divisions to $1. In other words, Iranians have seen their currency depreciate by more than 600 per cent in the last five years, with a significant portion of this loss occurring in the last year. Most worryingly, there is no hope that this situation will improve.
The devaluation of the national currency and the resulting inflation and uncontrolled price increases have fueled public discontent, which has only deepened over time.
Energy crisis:
Another issue that has emerged as a major concern in Iran since the summer of this year and has been at the top of the agenda in recent weeks is the energy shortage and the inability of the country’s electricity and gas infrastructure to meet demand. Iran faced frequent electricity and water shortages this summer and repeated power cuts in the winter. The energy crisis has also resulted in air pollution due to the irregular operation of power plants, which has caused and continues to cause environmental crises.
Experts believe that the lack of infrastructure investment in the country’s energy sector, especially the heavy sanctions and mismanagement by government officials in recent years, are the main reasons for this situation. This problem is likely to become more complex in the coming year, with significant social and political consequences.
Improvement in civil liberties:
With a reformist president in power and given the significant protests in Iran last year over the headscarf issue, state repression of women’s dress appears to have decreased significantly in 2024. In recent weeks, some popular messaging apps that were blocked last year have been made available, signaling an improvement in civil liberties.
Foreign policy:
Throughout 2024, Iran’s foreign policy was heavily influenced by the Gaza war. The escalation of Israel’s military operations in Gaza in the early months of the year, and their escalation into an unprecedented genocide, showed that the conflict would be protracted and would have consequences for Iran.
As the war dragged on, analyses in Iran fell into two main groups: The first group argued that Iran should not fall into Israel’s war trap. According to this group, by provoking Iran, Israel was trying to turn the war in Gaza from a confrontation with the defenseless people of Gaza into a confrontation with Iran. In this way, Israel would be able to ignore its genocidal crimes in Gaza and win the support of an international coalition from the United States and Europe by portraying itself as the victim. This group argued that Iran should engage in a minimal conflict with Israel and that Israel should not be allowed to draw Iran into a wider war. They saw Iran’s current economic difficulties, popular dissatisfaction with the government, the death of the president and internal political changes, possible attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure and the cutting off of Iran’s main sources of income as the main reasons for avoiding war.
The second group argued that Israel had decided to destroy Iran’s influence in the Middle East and that Iran should inflict heavy blows on Israel. According to them, if Iran did not react seriously against Israel, it would pay a much higher price for this war in the future. This group believed that by inflicting heavy blows on Israel, Iran would be making a strategic choice between life and death, but that avoiding conflict with Israel would lead to an inevitable collapse in the future. This group argued that Iran was capable of striking hard blows against Israel, that Iran had demonstrated its technological capability in ballistic missile attacks, and that it could provide an important deterrent against Israel by shifting its nuclear strategy towards the production and testing of atomic bombs.
The events of the past year show that Iran has favored the view of the first group but has not refrained from some attacks against Israel.
The main developments in Iran’s foreign policy over the past year can be summarized as follows:
First military operation against Israel: The conflict between Iran and Israel has been going on at the security level or through proxy groups for the past few decades. However, on 14 April 2024, Iran finally carried out a direct missile operation in response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This operation was dubbed “Operation True Promise-1”. The operation has been described as the first direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, the world’s largest drone strike, and the largest missile strike in Iran’s history.
In Operation True Promise, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles into the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. Some of these missiles are said to have penetrated Israel’s defense systems and hit important military targets such as the Nevatim airbase.
The operation was carried out in response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1 April. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces made it clear that the reason for this operation was that Israel had crossed Iran’s red lines and attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Seven people were killed in this Israeli attack, including Mohammad Reza Zahidi, a senior commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Iran’s mission to the UN stated that this military operation was carried out under the right of self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Many experts have said that this operation was not intended to harm Israel, but rather to demonstrate Iran’s ability to overcome Israel’s missile defense systems and its ability to deliver a direct blow to Israel.
Assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran:
Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas and one of its leaders, was assassinated by Israel on 31 July 2024 at 01:37 in Tehran, accompanied by his bodyguard. Haniyeh was assassinated as he was returning to an accommodation centre of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian.
As well as being a major security disaster for the Iranian security services, it meant that Israel had crossed every possible red line. The assassination was seen as a serious loss of face for Iran.
Operation True Promise:
On 1 October 2024, Iran carried out a second missile attack against Israel, Operation True Promise-2. This attack came two months after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and in the wake of increased Israeli attacks on Hezbollah’s command center. In particular, it was carried out four days after an airstrike that killed Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Southern Front Commander Ali Kirki and Deputy Operations Chief of the Revolutionary Guards Abbas Nilforshan.
The operation involved the launch of 200 ballistic missiles, hypersonic Fateh and Khybershiken missiles from areas around Tehran, Kashan, Tabriz, Shiraz, and Kermanshah.
This operation was seen as a real show of Iranian strength against Israel and created an important national unity in Iranian society. Iranians, regardless of their political and ideological affiliations, saw this operation as an act of defending their national honor.
Israel’s attack on Iran:
On 26 October 2024, Israel launched three waves of air strikes on Iran under the name of “Operation Days of Penance”. These strikes continued throughout the night and into the morning in several Iranian provinces, causing limited damage according to Iranian officials. Israel said the strikes were in response to ‘months of continuous attacks’ by Iran and its proxies, as well as Iran’s rocket attack on Israel in October 2024. In this operation, 4 members of the Iranian air defense forces were killed.
Although this attack caused no visible destruction in Iran, it was seen as a new page in the history of the Iran-Israel conflict, as it was the first time that Israel had launched a direct military attack on Iranian territory.
The nuclear impasse continues:
Although the confrontation between Iran and Israel has overshadowed attention to the Iranian nuclear issue, Iran faces a dangerous reality: According to the 10-year agreement adopted by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in 2015, if Iran is found to be in violation of the nuclear deal, previous UN sanctions can be automatically reimposed within 60 days at the request of any permanent member if the 5+1 Commission notifies the UN Security Council.
As the 10-year term of the nuclear deal nears its end, European countries and the United States are seeking to accuse Iran of violating its nuclear commitments, thereby portraying Iran as a threat to global security and seeking to reinstate UN sanctions. A few weeks ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi described this situation as a potential crisis for Iran and warned that it could have serious consequences for Iran. (It is not a far-fetched prediction that we will hear much more in the coming months about the automatic sanctions mechanism known as the ‘trigger mechanism’ or ‘snapback’).
This situation will be further complicated by the re-election of Donald Trump as US President.
Weakening regional position:
Although Israel failed to make noteworthy progress on the ground in Lebanon and was forced to retreat, it managed to deal a major strategic blow to the Lebanese resistance and thus to Iran by assassinating the Hezbollah leadership. The subsequent departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from the political scene and the rise to power of anti-Iranian groups in Syria meant that Iran severed its land link with Hezbollah and weakened its logistical support line to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other resistance groups. These developments weaken Iran’s regional position and power and will continue to force Iran to seriously reconsider its regional policies.
…
Throughout 2024, Iran managed to end the year without a major crisis, although it had an eventful year in domestic politics. However, Iran faced serious crises in its foreign policy, which will lead to a future change in Iran’s regional and international policies. This political change will also mean a change in the actions of some groups associated with Iran, leading to new developments in regional dynamics.
2025 will undoubtedly be a challenging and volatile year for Iran and a year of difficult choices.
Opinion
The Mecca Defence Agreement, the Ottoman Empire, and the facts
Some who are thoroughly excited by the Mecca Defence Agreement, and certain people who believe Türkiye should take sides in the clashes between the Iranian-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia, are once again dreaming dreams of conquest with reference to our Ottoman past. Whenever history is discussed, especially Turkish and Ottoman history, they invoke this widely repeated saying: “After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Middle East and the Balkans never knew peace again.”
We know that there are always those who, proceeding from this premise, seek to re-establish the Ottoman Empire. And we do not forget that eminent historians immediately respond to these ignorant figures: “Whoever does not grieve over the collapse of the Ottoman Empire has no heart, and whoever wishes to re-establish it has no mind.”
For the world we live in is neither the world in which the Ottoman Empire rose, nor the world in which it fell. Both times and conditions have changed. More than 40 states now exist across the lands once ruled by the Sublime Porte; when taking into account the countries it temporarily ruled, seized, or held sway over, that number exceeds 50 according to some historians, and 60 or even 70 according to others.
It must be asked dispassionately:
Which of these states, and how many of their citizens, actually want the Ottoman Empire to rise again, or wish for the Turks who would lead this revived, re-established Ottoman Empire to come and govern them as well? For this purpose, how many of these states have come together and said to Türkiye, “Take the lead, revive the Ottoman Empire”?
Is it objectively possible in today’s world to establish such a multilingual, multireligious, multiconfessional, multinational, and multi-identity empire? As the former prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu once suggested, is it objectively plausible for Türkiye to establish and lead an Ottoman Commonwealth of Nations, just as the British established and led the Commonwealth of Nations? Does Türkiye possess such political and economic power, state capacity, and scale?
Do the states that emerged from the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire have any such goal, desire, or expectation? Are regional and global conditions, or the balance of power, conducive to such an initiative? Long after the age of empires has drawn to a close, is it a realistic objective to bring the countries born of the Ottoman Empire’s collapse together under the umbrella of a federation or confederation?
How do those who claim such a desire exists in the Islamic world, the Arab world, and the Turkic world explain the rapprochement between the Central Asian Turkic states and the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus; the Sunni-Shia and Arab-Persian tensions across the Islamic world; the Abraham Accords; the indifference of Arab states to the Palestinian issue; and the fact that the TRNC is not recognized by a single Muslim country or a single Turkic state other than Türkiye?
Were Türkiye to put forward such an ambition, let alone Greece, Bulgaria, or Serbia, how would Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran react?
These questions could certainly be multiplied.
Yet history books contain ample evidence of how dreams conceived, and commentary made, in ignorance of history, geography, and economics ultimately turn out.
What matters in foreign policy is not indulging in fantasies, but remaining realistic.
Opinion
Seize, delete, deny: Israel’s war on its own record, from the Mavi Marmara to Gaza – 2
Thomas Karat, behavioral analyst
The Mavi Marmara had sailed from Istanbul’s Sarayburnu port on 22 May 2010, bound for Gaza with aid. On 31 May, after Israeli commandos had taken the ship in international waters and nine of the people aboard lay dead, a Turkish reporter named Kürşat Bayhan tried to save his work by hiding his camera’s memory card under his tongue. It was found during a medical examination and taken from him. Around sixty journalists came off the flotilla at Ashdod that week, and all of their recorded media was confiscated, never to be returned. In the days that followed, the Israeli military released short, edited clips drawn in part from the material it had seized, and its account of the raid dominated coverage while the survivors were held without contact. For about forty-eight hours, while survivors were held incommunicado, the clips released by Israel, edited from the ship’s security cameras and from equipment taken off journalists, were most of what the world saw. On 3 June the Committee to Protect Journalists accused Israel of confiscating journalistic material and then manipulating it to serve its own interests. A United Nations fact-finding mission later recorded that a large quantity of video and photographs from the vessels, including much of the assault on the Mavi Marmara itself, had been taken by the Israeli authorities and not returned. The seized material stayed useful to its holders long after the raid. Months later, while the Israeli chief of staff was giving testimony about the operation, army radio released a further short clip from the confiscated videos, a timing one Israeli outlet read as a domestic political move. The Turkish photojournalist Cevdet Kılıçlar was among those killed on the ship, and a Canadian aid worker, Kevin Neish, who hid the memory card from his own camera and later smuggled it out, published photographs of the dead that the official clips had left out. What survived reached the public because individuals beat the search, among them two Turkish journalists, Adem Özköse and Şefik Dinç, who smuggled their work home or recovered it from damaged cards.
Readers in Türkiye know that method from their own history. The state seizes the cameras, holds the witnesses until the story has set and then releases whatever selection supports the official version. It is the maritime equivalent of the colonial bonfires described in the first part of this series, where Britain burned or sank the files that might embarrass it and later locked away the rest. Both methods rest on one condition. The state has to hold the only copies. In Gaza since October 2023 that condition has failed, because a large part of the evidence was recorded by Israeli soldiers on their own phones and published by them, under their own names, before anyone in authority could decide what the public would be allowed to see.
The most common scene in that material is a demolition. Engineers thread explosives through the houses of an entire street, a countdown runs, and a block of homes drops at once into a single rolling cloud, while the men who set the charges cheer and the man holding the phone keeps it steady on the collapse. The same footage recurs across Gaza in thousands of clips filmed by unit after unit, some dedicating a detonation to a fallen comrade or to a holiday at home. One soldier captioned the levelling of houses in Rafah “renovations in Gaza.” The Fourth Geneva Convention bars an occupying power from destroying civilian property unless military operations make it absolutely necessary, and it lists extensive destruction of property, carried out unlawfully and wantonly and without military necessity, among the grave breaches that constitute war crimes. Footage of soldiers celebrating the collapse of a residential block is poor evidence of necessity. Demolition compelled by an operational requirement gives no occasion for a victory song, and the soundtrack records the attitude in which the decision was carried out.
The second recurring scene shows detainees. Across the Strip soldiers filmed men they had rounded up, who had been stripped to their underwear and blindfolded before being made to kneel in long rows, and they filmed themselves standing over them. In December 2023 a soldier named Yossi Gamzoo posted footage of a Palestinian stripped and bound, bleeding, under interrogation at Gaza College and then marched barefoot through the street, along with a second clip from Yarmouk stadium in which hundreds of men kneel in rows, many in their underwear and some blindfolded, with three women on their knees behind a goal. Another soldier, later identified as Ilya Blank, set a montage of blindfolded detainees packed into a pickup truck, with a comrade grinning and raising his thumb beside them, to an Israeli rap track. The Geneva Conventions require that people in custody be treated humanely and protected against insults and public curiosity. Legal scholars who examined this footage for the BBC concluded that it breached those protections. Two named soldiers stand here for a practice that was widespread and openly displayed, posted by men who expected their audience to approve.
The same practice reached the occupied West Bank. In December 2023, during a three-day military operation in the Jenin refugee camp, reservists filmed themselves inside a mosque reciting the Shema Yisrael and singing Hanukkah songs over the loudspeaker normally used for the call to prayer, one of them standing on the minbar. Graffiti left in the building read, among other things, greetings from the Gaza envelope. The army said the conduct contradicted its values and removed the soldiers from operational duty. Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, meanwhile posted the video on his own Telegram channel, presenting it as a prayer performed by heroic soldiers. Türkiye’s Foreign Ministry condemned the incident as a provocation. The episode compressed the whole problem into a single week. The military moved to discipline the men who had filmed the act, while a cabinet minister circulated the same footage to his followers as something to admire, which left the state disowning and promoting one recording at the same moment.
Some of the gravest material emerged by a different route, through a leak rather than a boast. On 6 August 2024 Israel’s Channel 12 broadcast surveillance footage from Sde Teiman, a military detention camp in southern Israel holding Palestinians taken from Gaza. It showed soldiers leading a detainee aside and surrounding him with riot shields, so that what was done to him took place just outside the camera’s view. The military’s own indictment later described what the shields concealed. Soldiers had attacked the man with severe violence and inserted a sharp object that penetrated near his rectum and tore the rectal wall, leaving him with fractured ribs and a punctured lung. The broadcast characterised the attack as a rape, while the charges filed stopped at aggravated assault. What followed belongs at the centre of this account. Israel arrested a senior military lawyer on suspicion of having leaked the video, and the military advocate general’s office later withdrew the indictments against the reservists. The legal jeopardy moved from the men in the footage to the official accused of letting the public see it.
Once the soldiers’ own posts were public, others began to organise them into evidence. The Palestinian journalist Younis Tirawi spent months identifying soldiers and units from what they had published, including a sniper team he traced after one of its members uploaded a video recounting the unit’s operations in Gaza City that showed unarmed people being shot. He collected post after post of soldiers posing with the lingerie and the mannequins of women whose homes they had occupied, and Al Jazeera’s investigative unit compiled a database of more than two and a half thousand accounts belonging to serving soldiers. A Belgian organisation, the Hind Rajab Foundation, began converting that material into criminal complaints, identifying individual soldiers from their own publications and filing cases in the countries they visited. Within a year it had lodged around fifty complaints and submitted the names of a thousand soldiers to the International Criminal Court, supported by thousands of items of footage and posts. A judge in Brazil issued an arrest warrant against one soldier, who avoided it by crossing into Argentina. A complaint in Portugal relied on a sniper’s own online boast of four bullets fired without a miss. In Belgium the foundation filed a further complaint against a dual national from the same sniper team, built around the siege of a Gaza hospital. The Israeli military responded by warning its personnel to stop publishing details of their service and by advising some of them to leave the countries they were visiting before they could be detained.
The footage reached the highest court available to states. When South Africa brought its case under the Genocide Convention to the International Court of Justice, its counsel played the soldiers’ videos in the courtroom and read out statements soldiers had made on camera as evidence of intent. The court found that the Palestinians’ claimed right to protection from genocide was plausible and issued binding provisional measures, among them an order that Israel prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to the allegations. A later order required Israel to admit United Nations investigators to Gaza. Türkiye, a party to the Genocide Convention, submitted its own declaration of intervention in the case on 7 August 2024 under Article 63 of the Court’s Statute, and the Court invited South Africa and Israel to submit written observations on the request, months after Ankara had suspended trade with Israel over the war. In November 2025 the Istanbul chief prosecutor’s office announced arrest warrants on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity against 37 Israeli officials, among them the prime minister, the defence minister and the chief of the general staff. Israel’s foreign minister rejected the warrants with contempt and called them a PR stunt, arguing that the Turkish judiciary had become a political instrument and citing the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor earlier that year. The warrants have no force outside Türkiye, and their weight lies in the record they help assemble. The International Criminal Court had already issued warrants for the prime minister and his former defence minister a year earlier. Across these proceedings the soldiers’ own recordings form part of the evidentiary base, which means the state now faces courts in The Hague and prosecutors abroad with material its own personnel produced and published.
From that point the work of erasure ran in reverse. A government that in 2010 had held the cameras now had to recover material already copied onto other people’s devices. In February 2024 the chief of the general staff, Herzi Halevi, wrote to commanders instructing soldiers not to loot and not to film revenge videos, and soldiers who had posted demolition footage were told to remove it. The concern, as described by the military’s own people, was that the clips could feed the cases building at the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice. By mid-2025 the chief military censor had issued an order restricting what could be posted about strikes altogether, an order Haaretz described as legally invalid. By 2026 the army’s chief of staff had asked military lawyers to examine legal action against the makers of a prize-winning documentary in which soldiers described the deliberate killing of civilians in Gaza. The effort that had begun with deleting a conscript’s post extended, within two years, to pursuing those who assembled such material into a public account.
The removal of evidence also operated on the platforms, and it fell unevenly. In October and November 2023 Human Rights Watch documented more than a thousand takedowns and suppressions of Palestinian content on Instagram and Facebook. Of the 1,050 cases it reviewed, 1,049 involved peaceful content in support of Palestinians, and a single case involved content supporting Israel. The organisation identified six recurring patterns of suppression, ranging from removal and account suspension to shadow-banning and restrictions on live video, affecting posts of evident news value, including footage of Palestinian dead. It attributed the pattern to automated moderation and to government pressure over what the company removed, including referrals from Israel’s state cyber unit. Users responded by misspelling the word Gaza or substituting a watermelon for the Palestinian flag to evade the filters. A human-rights review commissioned by Meta itself had already found, before the war, that its moderation harmed Palestinian rights. The two bodies of material differ in kind. The soldiers’ footage documents alleged crimes, while most of the suppressed Palestinian content documented what was being done to civilians. In both cases the record most damaging to the stronger party proved the harder one to keep in view.
Older forms of erasure continued alongside the new. Early in the war an airstrike destroyed the Central Archives of Gaza City, which held some 150 years of the territory’s history in roughly 110,000 documents and photographs. The library of the Islamic University of Gaza had been levelled in the second week of fighting, and the Gaza City public library, holding about ten thousand volumes, followed. United Nations experts used the term scholasticide for the systematic destruction of the territory’s education system, reporting that more than eighty per cent of Gaza’s schools had been damaged or destroyed. One count put the dead at 5,479 students, 261 teachers and 95 university professors. The last functioning university was demolished in January 2024, after the army had used it for seventy days as a base and detention site. The Committee to Protect Journalists recorded 2024 as the deadliest year for the press since it began keeping records in 1992, with 124 journalists killed worldwide and around sixty per cent of the toll attributed to Israel. The dead included the journalist Hamza Dahdouh, son of the Al Jazeera correspondent Wael Dahdouh, killed in a strike on his car, and Ismail al-Ghoul with his cameraman Rami al-Rifi, killed in a vehicle with press markings while both wore press vests. Many of those killed were freelancers working after their newsrooms had been destroyed, filling a gap left by Israel’s refusal to admit foreign reporters except on escorted military visits, a restriction that more than fifty foreign correspondents protested in an open letter.
The oldest layer of the practice reaches back to the state’s founding. For two decades a security department of the Israeli defence ministry known by its Hebrew acronym, Malmab, has removed documents from Israeli archives, often without legal authority and in some cases resealing papers the military censor had already cleared, including material on the expulsions of 1948 that historians had published and cited. The largest archive in the country, that of the military itself, remains almost entirely sealed. One historian discovered that files he had quoted fifteen years earlier were no longer available to him. Among the documents withdrawn was an internal report on how Palestinian villages were emptied in the first months of the 1948 war, a record that complicates the official account of a population that left of its own accord. That is the British method in its Israeli form, the quiet withdrawal of evidence that had once been open.
The motive is consistent across both parts of this series. A state that claims to conduct its wars within the law draws standing from that claim both at home and in the international forums where it seeks support. Documented abuse, examined by courts it does not control, undermines the claim and attaches it to named individuals. Britain protected that standing with fire, with retention orders and with closed courts, and the effort succeeded for half a century because the state held the only copies of the evidence. Israel controlled the record of the Mavi Marmara in 2010 by the same means, through possession of the cameras. In Gaza it has held neither the cameras nor the copies. The decisive evidence was produced by its own soldiers, distributed before any censor intervened, archived by investigators within hours and entered into proceedings at The Hague before any deletion order took effect. The first part of this series ended at Akrotiri, where Britain still withholds its surveillance footage of Gaza on grounds of national security. The contrast with the footage Israel’s own soldiers chose to publish defines the present moment. A state can seal what it alone possesses. It has far fewer means to recall a confession its personnel have already made to the world, and the scale of the effort it devotes to trying remains the clearest indication of what that confession contains.
Settle, deny, seal: Britain’s formula for colonial torture, from Kenya to Cyprus — 1
Opinion
Settle, deny, seal: Britain’s formula for colonial torture, from Kenya to Cyprus — 1
Thomas Karat, behavioral analyst
In January 2019 the British government announced that it would pay one million pounds to thirty-three Cypriots who said they had been tortured in British custody during the uprising of 1955 to 1959. The statement that accompanied the money contained a sentence that readers in Nairobi would have recognised. The settlement, London said, did not constitute any admission of liability and set no precedent for any future claim against the government. Five and a half years earlier, announcing compensation for Kenyans tortured during the Mau Mau Emergency, the same government had kept its denial of liability intact and declared that the payment set no precedent for any other former colony. Two territories, two populations of torture survivors, and one formula, carried from one continent to another with its wording barely altered. A sentence that travels like that belongs to a method. The method has a history that runs from colonial bonfires in the 1950s through statutes still in force today, and it ends, for the moment, at a British air base on Cyprus that is still in operation.
The Cyprus Emergency began in 1955, when EOKA, a Greek Cypriot organisation seeking union with Greece, opened an armed campaign against British rule, a campaign London classified as terrorism. The violence ran in more than one direction. According to figures published by a Turkish Cypriot outlet, EOKA killed 371 British servicemen between 1955 and 1959, and its victims included Turkish Cypriots, the first of them a police sergeant, Abdullah Alparslan, killed in Paphos in 1956. None of this alters the legal position of a prisoner. The prohibition on torturing people in custody protects every detainee regardless of the cause he served, and it was the treatment of detainees that the British administration worked hardest to keep from view. Allegations of abuse circulated widely at the time, and the colonial authorities dismissed them as EOKA propaganda. No British soldier or policeman was prosecuted for torture during the uprising, although two officers of the Gordon Highlanders were court-martialled and convicted of causing actual bodily harm. The EOKA veterans’ association says that fourteen Greek Cypriots died under British interrogation, two of them aged seventeen. In 2022 new evidence on those deaths was published, drawing on testimony from British veterans and Cypriot fighters, post-mortem and morgue records, and photographs from the Cyprus State Archives that appear to show mutilation of the genitals; it was the first time British forces, intelligence services included, had been accused of a campaign of extrajudicial killing during the uprising. Among the thirty-three claimants who settled in 2019 was a woman who said that, at sixteen, she had been repeatedly raped by soldiers.
For half a century the documents that could have tested those accounts were officially said not to exist. They surfaced because of a lawsuit on another continent. In the course of the Kenyan litigation the Foreign Office conceded that it held thousands of files from former colonial administrations, around 9,000 from thirty-seven of them by one early count, long thought to have been destroyed. Among them were Cyprus papers in which British police and military officers themselves described the brutal treatment of suspected EOKA fighters and of civilians. Foreign Office documents released in July 2012 set out claims of torture and abuse from the Emergency years, and in July 2015 thirty-five Cypriots filed suit. Reporting on the newly available material, the Cyprus Mail found that the top-secret files showed suspected EOKA fighters and ordinary civilians alike had been brutally tortured in the course of the Emergency. Their lawyer had to persuade the government to let him see classified material, which meant repeated visits to Hanslope Park, the secretive Foreign Office site in Buckinghamshire where the colonial archive had been held. A Labour member of parliament of Cypriot descent observed that, in a matter where torture was certainly involved, the government would rather the case never saw the light of day. When the settlement came, the minister for Europe described the period before independence as a matter of regret, and pointed to the passage of time as a reason the claims could no longer be fairly tried. The passage of time in question included the fifty years during which the government had kept the relevant files out of reach. Even the settlement did not close the archive. During a later visit by the claimants’ lawyer to Cyprus it was announced that thousands of further classified documents bearing on torture allegations from the Emergency were due for release, which meant that, years after London had paid to end the case, part of the record it concerned had still not been opened. The pace at which that material reaches the public is still set by the department that withheld it in the first place.
The disappearance of those files had been planned with the same care as any other branch of colonial administration. From 1961 the colonial secretary, Iain Macleod, directed officers across the remaining territories to identify and remove any document that might embarrass the British government or its officials, together with anything open to reading as evidence of racial prejudice or religious bias. The criterion applied was reputational: a paper went to the fire according to the harm it could do to Britain’s name, whatever its military value. Files fit to pass to an incoming government were marked legacy. Files destined for destruction or for secret shipment to London were marked watch, and the instructions required that successor governments never learn such files had existed, so that where one was withdrawn from a series a dummy file took its place. The work was reserved for officers who were British subjects of European descent. Paper was burned and the ash broken up, or packed into weighted crates and sunk in deep water far from the coast. In Belize the files went up with help from the Royal Navy and several gallons of petrol. In British Guiana two secretaries fed papers into an oil drum on the grounds of Government House until the army lent a hand. In Aden a committee of three began burning in 1966, a full year before the British withdrew. In Malaya five lorry loads were driven to the naval base in a single purge, a destruction so conspicuous that officers in Kenya were later warned against repeating it. Each completed destruction produced a signed certificate for London. The programme was called Operation Legacy.
Kenya was where the concealment finally broke. Three elderly survivors of the detention camps of the Mau Mau Emergency, who had been beaten and sexually mutilated in British custody, sued the Foreign Office. One of them described in his witness statement a period before independence in which men were castrated and women raped. The department fought the claim for three years, arguing first that liability for colonial conduct had passed to the independent Kenyan state in 1963, a position the High Court rejected. It was during that litigation, more than a decade after the case began, that the hidden archive came to light. Historians who had argued for years that the records had been removed and concealed were vindicated, after a long period in which the government had been content to let them appear mistaken rather than acknowledge what it held. The files became catalogue series FCO 141 at the National Archives, some twenty thousand files from around forty former territories. On 6 June 2013 the foreign secretary told the House of Commons that the government would pay £19.9 million) to 5,228 claimants and that it sincerely regretted the abuses, in a statement that preserved the denial of liability and the refusal of precedent that Cyprus would hear in 2019.
The formula performs a precise legal function. A payment made without admission of liability produces no finding against the state, and no court ever pronounces on what the files show. A payment declared to set no precedent obliges every other group of victims, in every other former territory, to begin from nothing, against a defendant that holds the documents and controls the pace at which they emerge. The Cypriot claimants learned from the Kenyan case that settlement was possible, and their lawyer said publicly that the government’s resistance in Cyprus had been ill advised because the Mau Mau case had already shown where such litigation led. The government nonetheless repeated the full sequence, resisting the claims, contesting access to the files and finally settling without admission. Kenya also received a memorial in Nairobi, unveiled as a symbol of reconciliation, while no comparable memorial has been offered to Cyprus. Each case is handled as an exception, which is the outcome the formula is designed to secure.
An incomplete record does not leave a neutral space behind it. It leaves room for partisan shorthand, and the shorthand settles on whichever community has the least access to the documents. When the BBC reported the 2019 settlement, its story described Turkish Cypriots as thugs, wording the broadcaster later apologised for and removed. The Emergency years shaped relations between the island’s communities, and a full account of them, drawn from the files rather than from competing memories, serves Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots alike. The party that has kept that account incomplete is the former colonial power, whose officers wrote the reports and whose ministries still decide which of them may be read.
The fire was the crude instrument. The durable one is statutory and still operates. The Public Records Act provides that records selected for permanent preservation pass into public view within twenty years, a period reduced from thirty in 2010. The same section allows a department to keep records back if they are required for administrative purposes or ought to be retained for any other special reason, and in its broadest application it permits a blanket retention covering an entire class of files, reviewed once every ten years. In 2013 the Foreign Office was found to be holding a further body of material it called its special collections, estimated at the time at 1.2 million files and occupying roughly fifteen miles of shelving, held for years in breach of the Act. The justice secretary responded by signing a blanket authorisation that converted the breach into lawful retention, and a group of historians considered a legal challenge under both the Public Records Act and the Freedom of Information Act. The colonial files of Hong Kong remain closed under an order set to run until 2047. In 2015 the power to approve retention moved from the Lord Chancellor to a Secretary of State, and the authorising document was renamed from a Lord Chancellor’s Instrument to a plain Retention Instrument. The Lord Chancellor’s role had carried a measure of independent oversight of the public records system, and the change moved the decision closer to the departments that hold the records and have reasons of their own to keep them closed. Between 2017 and 2019 the British army’s headquarters in Kenya destroyed most of its physical files created before 2015, years after ministers had expressed regret in Parliament for precisely this kind of loss.
Destruction and retention govern what reaches the record. A third instrument governs what reaches the courtroom. English law has held since Lord Hewart’s judgment of 1924 that justice must manifestly be seen to be done, and the principle has long been treated as part of the rule of law itself. The Justice and Security Act of 2013 introduced closed material procedures into ordinary civil litigation for the first time. Where the government is sued over the conduct of its own agencies, it may now rely on evidence that the claimant and the claimant’s own lawyer never see. A security-cleared special advocate reads the material in their place and is then barred from discussing it with the person whose interests he represents. Special advocates themselves told Parliament the procedures were inherently unfair and contrary to the common-law tradition. The Law Society warned that the Act damaged the equality of arms on which a fair trial depends. A recently retired Law Lord described the legislation as so radical a departure from open justice that every available safeguard should be built in against its use, and the government’s own equality and human-rights watchdog judged the Bill incompatible with European human-rights requirements. Parliament passed the Act regardless of these objections. In 2014 prosecutors applied to hold an entire terrorism trial in secret, with the defendants kept anonymous. The Court of Appeal refused a complete blackout, holding that criminal trials must be public and defendants named, and recorded its grave concern at what had been attempted. The core of the trial still proceeded in private, with a small group of journalists admitted on terms that kept almost everything they heard out of print and their notebooks in the court’s custody.
The two efforts were assembled side by side. The Justice and Security Act received royal assent on 25 April 2013. Six weeks later, on 6 June, the same government expressed in the Commons its regret for colonial torture whose evidence it had withheld for fifty years and surrendered only under compulsion of a court. An apology for an old concealment and the legal machinery for future concealment came from one administration within a single parliamentary season. Six years after that, the Cyprus settlement repeated the words of the apology while the machinery remained in place.
The motive is legible in the record itself. A state that presents itself abroad as a custodian of the rule of law, and that sits as one of the guarantors of an independent Cyprus, draws much of its standing from the claim that its own conduct can withstand scrutiny. Documented torture, examined in open court, falsifies that claim and attaches names to it. The instruments differ in where they intervene, and they protect the same asset. Destruction prevents evidence from ever reaching a court. Retention keeps surviving files from historians for decades at a time, and closed procedures keep evidence from the public even after it reaches a judge. The Court of Appeal named the stakes in its 2014 judgment, describing open justice as a hallmark of the rule of law, a guarantee that the conduct of the state in its own courts can be watched by the people in whose name it acts. Each instrument described here is a way of declining that watch. Sustained over half a century, the expense involved gives some measure of the value placed on that asset. A government does not maintain a secret archive for fifty years, legalise its retention when exposed and redesign its own civil procedure in order to protect material it regards as harmless.
On Cyprus the British state retains more than archives. Under the 1960 Treaty of Establishment the island became independent with the exception of two areas at Akrotiri and at Dhekelia, which remained under British sovereignty, and under the accompanying Treaty of Guarantee, Türkiye and Greece, together with the United Kingdom, undertook to guarantee the independence of the Republic together with its territorial integrity and its security. From Akrotiri, beginning in December 2023, Royal Air Force Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft flew hundreds of missions over and around Gaza, at least 518 according to an investigation by Action on Armed Violence for Declassified UK, a figure the charity later put at 606. The Ministry of Defence has said the flights served only to help locate hostages, and has refused to say whether it shared live surveillance footage with Israel. It has confirmed, in answer to a freedom-of-information request, that it holds video of Gaza from a flight on 1 April 2024, the day Israeli strikes killed seven international aid workers, three of them British military veterans, and it has declined to release that footage on national-security grounds.
The island on which British officers once kept colonial files out of reach now hosts a British base whose record of a present war is withheld on familiar grounds. The reflex traced here through Kenya and Cyprus belongs to no single state. The second part of this series follows it to Israel, whose conduct in Gaza and the West Bank has been recorded on a scale no archive was built to contain, much of it by Israeli soldiers themselves, and whose authorities have since worked to remove that record from the platforms where it first appeared. Britain’s method assumed that evidence could be held in one place and managed over decades. What becomes of that method when the evidence exists everywhere at once is the question the second part examines.
-
Diplomacy1 week agoSecular dress code dispute exposes deeper Türkiye-Azerbaijan strains
-
Russia2 weeks agoUS and Russia weigh energy deals and corporate return in peace talks
-
Europe6 days agoEU urges citizens to prepare 72-hour survival kits for crises
-
Middle East2 weeks agoUS warns Gulf allies of possible Iran strikes after midterms
-
America2 weeks agoBolsonaro reportedly leaves Brazil on jet linked to scandal-hit firm
-
Asia1 week agoChina expands Africa arms sales, displacing France and Western rivals
-
Europe2 weeks agoEU prepares Ukraine peace mission to Abu Dhabi led by Björn Seibert
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoSteinmeier seeks to de-escalate German-Chinese tensions on visit
