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The collapse of a 30-year ruling coalition in Tokyo

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October 11th marked a historic day in Japanese politics.

In a press conference, Komeito’s current leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced that his party would no longer be part of the ruling coalition, ending its stable and loyal 26-year partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Saito also declared that Komeito would henceforth terminate its electoral cooperation with the LDP. This signifies a major shift in Japan’s political landscape, given the interconnectedness of Komeito and the LDP. However, he emphasized that cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis in parliament would still be possible and that his party did not aim to become an outright opponent of the LDP. In short, the LDP-Komeito coalition, which governed Japan from 1999-2009 and again from 2012, has officially come to an end.

This coalition was arguably the structure that has shaped Japanese politics for the last thirty years.

After the LDP lost power in the early 1990s, turning to Komeito to ensure stability in a challenging political environment was a natural move. Since then, it evolved into a political fortress as a stable and enduring alliance. In essence, those familiar with Japanese politics could conclude that the LDP and Komeito were governing the country together. They secured a majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament]. This was also how things worked during the Shinzo Abe era in the 2010s. Despite being a conservative, Shinzo Abe maintained the coalition through his personal relationships and carefully crafted policy compromises that always required Komeito’s approval, or at least its acquiescence. Komeito, in turn, set its own conditions, and the LDP-Komeito partnership thrived. It was an almost flawless political machine.

For the last thirty years, the LDP and Komeito have consistently held over 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives, the more powerful of the two houses of the Japanese Diet. However, this dominance does not reflect their actual strength in terms of votes; Japan’s electoral system, with its LDP-dominated single-member districts, rewards such coalitions.

How did the coalition work?

The coalition essentially operated as a two-way system: First, the LDP’s strength traditionally lay in Japan’s single-member districts. Komeito was active on the ground, supporting LDP candidates through Buddhist organizations like Soka Gakkai, delivering an estimated 20,000 votes per district.

Second, Komeito focused on a limited number of single-member districts where an LDP candidate did not run, traditionally in urban areas like Tokyo or the Kansai region (mostly Osaka and Hyogo). The party concentrated its full power on the proportional representation vote, where its true base lies. It was a mechanism that worked on the ground for the LDP.

However, it is a known fact in Japanese politics that there has always been a degree of skepticism towards Komeito within LDP conservative circles. This stems partly from the party’s links to the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, and partly from criticism of Komeito’s socially moderate stances on issues like same-sex marriage, the policy on separate surnames [for married couples], or defense spending. Furthermore, Komeito’s traditionally close relationship with China also fuels this skepticism.

All of this has now come to the surface and finally fractured.

In the nineties and 2000s, these policy differences were not very significant, or at least they were set aside by the LDP and its leaders, who saw Komeito as a reliable partner with whom they could govern Japan. Together, they governed by consensus. They were successful. But last week, the coalition reached its breaking point.

It appears there were two fundamental points of disagreement that led the party to part ways with the LDP:

The first major reason is that Sanae Takaichi’s right-wing policy stances, and perhaps more importantly, her style and tone, were not well-received by Komeito. Komeito worked with Abe, and they had many disagreements, but it’s important to remember the significant nuances between Abe and Takaichi. Abe learned his lessons after his failed first term in 2007 and, in his second term, pivoted to economic policies, reassuring Komeito that the government would not shift too far to the right.

The second point of contention is the “seiji to kane” (politics and money) scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years. Komeito may have felt it could no longer justify remaining in a coalition with a party that it believed was not taking real steps toward reform and was continuing the same political behavior that Japanese voters have punished in every election for the past five years.

And then there is the role of personal ties. The Japanese press reports that Sanae Takaichi has almost no relationship with Komeito and has formed a leadership team within the LDP dominated by conservatives who feel little affinity for Komeito. One of them is former Prime Minister Aso Taro, who has become the “cloistered emperor” [a term referencing a powerful figure ruling from behind the scenes] guiding Takaichi through the treacherous waters of Japanese politics.

So, what is expected to happen next?

The Japanese Diet must vote for a new prime minister in the coming days. The initial date was already postponed, as Sanae Takaichi may not currently have enough votes to secure the position.

But today, the Japanese government decided to convene an extraordinary session of the Diet on October 21st. Parliamentary sources said the session is expected to hold a vote to elect the next prime minister.

To become prime minister, a candidate needs to win a majority in both houses of the Diet. The problem is that the LDP does not have an absolute majority on its own, not even in the first round—and that was with Komeito. Now that the coalition has dissolved, this gap has widened even further, threatening to lead the LDP to failure.

If no candidate secures a majority, the vote goes to a second round between the two leading candidates, and this time the LDP will enter the run-off alone.

The LDP remains the largest party in the House of Representatives, and Sanae Takaichi could become Japan’s first female prime minister! We shall see.

However, the opposition is still in disarray. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Japan’s largest opposition party, is trying to persuade two right-leaning opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Ishin no Kai, to agree on a common candidate. On the other hand, the CDPJ is also trying to coordinate with smaller left-wing parties like the Communists, Social Democrats, and Reiwa.

What will Komeito do?

Leader Saito Tetsuo stated that the party would vote for him (their own leader) in the first round but did not disclose what they would do in a potential second round, leaving the balance of power in the Diet completely uncertain.

Komeito’s closing message was as follows:

“To revive politics for the people and to restore public trust, Komeito will take the lead and move forward. We express our gratitude for our past partnership with the LDP, and we part with a handshake.”

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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03/08/2026

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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6 days ago

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28/07/2026

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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7 days ago

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27/07/2026

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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