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China tries to reassure markets as stocks and renminbi fall

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China’s regulators sought to calm markets on Monday as stocks and the renminbi experienced a shaky start to 2025, influenced by weak economic data and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index dropped by 0.2% on Monday, marking a 4.1% decline in the first three trading days of the year, making it Asia’s worst-performing major index so far in 2025. Small-cap stocks in the CSI 2000 index fell 6.6% since the year’s start. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped by 0.4% on Monday, with a year-to-date decline of 1.2%.

Amid these declines, Chinese stock market regulators convened meetings with international investors, and the central bank reaffirmed its commitment to stabilizing the currency. This occurred alongside concerns about Trump’s plans to increase tariffs on Chinese exports.

“Right now, everyone is wondering what Trump 2.0 will bring,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. “It’s reasonable for investors to take some profit,” he added.

The renminbi fell to a 15-month low of Rmb7.33 against the dollar on Monday, despite the People’s Bank of China keeping the daily trading band for the onshore renminbi unchanged. Analysts linked the currency’s downward pressure to corresponding weaknesses in Chinese stocks. Kevin Liu, a strategist at CICC, attributed the pressure to weak manufacturing data, the dollar index reaching a two-year high, and the anticipated effects of Trump’s presidency.

In an effort to reassure investors, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges emphasized the resilience and solid fundamentals of China’s economy during a weekend meeting with foreign institutions. They welcomed feedback and suggestions to address concerns about Chinese stocks, as outlined in a statement on Sunday.

On Monday, the central bank maintained its daily midpoint fixing rate for the renminbi at Rmb7.19, allowing it to trade within a 2% range. The state-owned Financial News stressed the central bank’s readiness to prevent excessive exchange rate volatility, emphasizing its “sufficient tools” to maintain currency stability.

Investor sentiment remained weak as long-term government bonds continued to attract buyers. Concerns over domestic consumption led to speculation that the central bank might further ease monetary policy. The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds fell to 1.61% on Monday, nearing an all-time low.

Despite Beijing’s promises to boost domestic consumption following a prolonged property crisis, the year began on a subdued note. The Chinese People’s Congress is set to meet in March to outline its economic policy agenda for what analysts expect will be a challenging year.

Winnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at Bank of America, highlighted the need for policies aimed at stimulating consumption, supporting the private sector, and addressing youth unemployment. “In terms of the fundamental things to look for in 2025, we think investors need to see more on consumption,” Wu said.

Despite the rough start, analysts noted that Chinese stocks rebounded strongly in 2024, with the CSI 300 gaining 14.7% over the year. “We think the worst decline is over,” Wu concluded.

ASIA

Chinese currency drops to 16-month low amid U.S. trade war concerns

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China’s currency, the renminbi, has dropped to its lowest level in 16 months, as concerns about potential tariff increases by the incoming Trump administration cast doubts on the growth prospects of the world’s second-largest economy.

On Wednesday, the onshore renminbi weakened by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar to Rmb7.34, its weakest level since September 2023. This decline occurred despite the People’s Bank of China maintaining its peg ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration later this month.

The renminbi is allowed to trade within a 2% range of the daily rate set by the central bank, and the exchange rate is now nearing the lower boundary of this trading band.

The selling pressure on the currency reflects fears that a trade war with the U.S. could harm Chinese exports. Exports have been a critical factor in supporting China’s economic growth amid weak domestic consumer demand and a prolonged property crisis.

“The market is impatient and wants a pop in the renminbi,” said Wee Khoon Chong, senior market strategist at BNY.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China set the daily fixing rate at Rmb7.1887 against the dollar, slightly adjusted from Tuesday’s Rmb7.1879. However, selling pressure on the exchange rate intensified following strong U.S. economic data, which boosted the dollar on Tuesday.

Ju Wang, Head of FX and Currency Strategy for Greater China at BNP Paribas, explained to Financial Times that the selling pressure on the renminbi is “essentially a reflection of the Trump trade.” Wang noted, “The market has been doing this since the U.S. election… A lot has been priced in, but the market doesn’t want to give up.”

Analysts observed that the central bank is attempting to maintain a stable exchange rate while awaiting clarity on Trump’s trade policies. They warned that a slight easing of the fixing could trigger a more significant sell-off in the Chinese currency.

Trump has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on China on his first day in office.

Adding to the concerns, Chinese stocks were sold off during the day. The CSI 300 index, China’s benchmark, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index both fell by 1.3%.

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South Korean court extends arrest warrant for ousted President Yoon

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South Korean investigators are preparing for a second attempt to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol. A court in South Korea has extended an arrest warrant against the ousted president, investigators announced on Tuesday, paving the way for a renewed effort to detain him after his security service thwarted the first attempt last week.

The Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) and the National Police Agency, which are jointly investigating sedition charges against Yoon, will determine when to reissue the arrest warrant. Yoon’s legal team contends that the warrant is illegal and is expected to continue resisting arrest.

Prosecutors must prove that Yoon’s declaration of martial law and deployment of troops to the National Assembly in December constituted sedition. Under South Korea’s penal code, sedition is defined as “resorting to violence for the purpose of usurping national territory or overthrowing the constitution.”

Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun has also been charged with sedition. According to the Yonhap News Agency, prosecutors concluded that the mobilization of the army and police to block the National Assembly, along with attempts to arrest lawmakers and seize documents from the National Election Commission without a warrant, were aimed at subverting the constitution. Testimony suggests that these orders were issued directly by Yoon.

In a speech last month, Yoon claimed that he declared martial law as a warning against “anti-state forces” within the opposition Democratic Party, arguing that the move fell within the scope of “state powers.”

The CIO, established to investigate offenses by senior officials, does not typically handle treason cases. It also lacks experience dealing with suspects who physically resist arrest. On Monday, the office requested the police to execute an arrest warrant for Yoon, but the National Police Agency cited legal issues with the request.

The police are preparing for a potential confrontation with the president’s security service and have indicated that they may arrest any personnel who attempt to physically obstruct the execution of the arrest warrant. The head of the security service was summoned for questioning for the third time on Tuesday after ignoring two previous summonses.

The issue has also become a focal point in the impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court, which is tasked with making the final decision following the National Assembly’s successful impeachment motion last month.

The impeachment motion centered on two points: the alleged unconstitutionality of Yoon’s declaration of martial law and accusations that it constituted sedition.

On Friday, the National Assembly’s impeachment investigation committee, composed solely of opposition lawmakers, asked the court to remove the sedition charge from the impeachment grounds to expedite the trial. The committee argued that the sedition issue should be resolved in criminal court.

Yoon’s People Power Party, which largely opposed the impeachment motion, argued that the retroactive amendment should invalidate the motion.

A legal representative from the impeachment committee stated, “There is no change in making all acts of sedition subject to prosecution.”

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ASIA

South Korea extends arrest warrant for ousted President Yoon

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South Korean authorities have granted a request to extend an arrest warrant issued to detain suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol for questioning in connection with his surprise declaration of martial law last month.

The warrant, which expired at midnight (10:00 p.m. local time) on Monday, was reissued Tuesday afternoon (local time) by the Seoul Western District Court at the request of the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO).

The deadline for the warrant was not announced. These warrants are usually valid for seven days but can be extended for a longer period if the judge deems it necessary.

The CIO, which is working with the police and the defense ministry to investigate Yoon, also requested the police to execute Yoon’s detention warrant. The police have a larger force and more equipment than the anti-corruption agency to carry out Yoon’s arrest.

Yoon, who was stripped of his presidential powers last month after a brief martial law declaration shook the country, is wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including charges of leading an uprising—a crime punishable by life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

The approval of the arrest warrant, first issued on December 31, marks the first time such a step has been taken against a sitting president.

Investigators attempted to detain Yoon on Friday but were forced to withdraw after an hours-long standoff at the presidential compound.

On Monday, protesters both for and against Yoon gathered near the presidential compound, accompanied by a heavy police presence. Yoon’s supporters vowed to thwart any attempts to arrest him.

According to a video shared by CNN affiliate JTBC, barbed wire was erected on the walls around the compound, and entrances were blocked with vehicles.

Yoon resists the decision

According to the CIO, Yoon, a former prosecutor, has so far refused to respond to investigators’ calls for cooperation.

Once the warrant goes into effect, a 48-hour countdown will begin for investigators to hold and interrogate Yoon. The CIO will need to issue another search warrant during that time to keep Yoon in custody longer.

Yoon’s declaration of martial law in December was widely criticized by the public. After he refused to resign, lawmakers, including members of his own party, voted to impeach him.

However, the suspended president’s lawyers have insisted that the measures taken against him violate South Korean law, and Yoon continues to face investigations and an impeachment trial in one of the country’s highest courts.

Yoon’s defense team has filed an injunction against the arrest warrant with the Constitutional Court and a separate appeal against the decision with a lower court.

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