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Afghanistan-Iran cross-border tension: Who to blame

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Afghanistan and Iran troops have engaged in heavy cross-border clashes, killing and wounding troops in rapid escalation of tensions over water rights.

At least two Iranian border guards and one Taliban member have lost their lives in the battle and several other people received injuries.

There is no immediate indication of what had provoked the incident, but recently Iran’s leader threatened the Taliban amid tensions between the two countries over water rights.

The deadly clashes happened on the border of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province and southern Afghan province Nirmoz. Authorities from both sides confirmed the clashes had subsided and the two neighbors engaged in talks to ease tensions. Both sides accused each other of firing first.

Spokesman for the Taliban Interior Ministry Abdul Nafi Takor said that Iranian border forces fired toward Afghanistan first, which faced a counter-reaction by the Taliban border forces.

Takor said that the situation is now under control, and the Islamic Emirate does not want to fight with its neighbors, but prevent mentioning the name of Iran.

Iran‘s Deputy Police Chief, Qasem Rezaei blamed Taliban forces for firing first at the Sasoli checkpoint which caused a decisive response. Rezaei charged the Taliban forces for not observing intentional laws and neighborliness.

No room for aggression

A Taliban commander, Abdul Hamid Khorasani called on the Iran leadership not to play with the patience of the people of Afghanistan and the government.

“We are not slaves of the colonialists and we won’t tolerate your aggressions,” Khorasani said, referring to Iran’s border firing toward Afghanistan.

In a message sent to Harici, Khorasani said that the Taliban security forces will not tolerate any kind of “aggression” and warned Iran of a “deadly response” if a single bullet fired toward Afghanistan.

“Our leadership had shown restraint, otherwise we were ready to fight against Iran with more passion and even greater than our fight against the NATO occupiers,” he added.

In a clear word, he said that they will conquer Iran if the leadership in the Islamic Emirate allow them to wage Jihad against Tehran, and also accused Iran of being a good friend to the Western countries.

But, Taliban defense ministry spokesman, Enayatullah Khowarazmi said that Kabul considers dialogue and negotiation to be a reasonable way to address any problem.

He said that blaming games and negative actions is not in the interest of either side.

Iran decisively responses to any aggression

Iran had vowed not to let the Taliban attack stand, and said that its border forces have been alert 24 hours to respond in a harsh way to any cross-border aggression.

Iran’s Police Chief, Ahmadreza Radan said that the border forces will “decisively respond” to any border trespassing and aggression and blamed the Taliban leadership for the border skirmishes.

Iran’s deputy head of the police force, Qassem Rezaee said that the Taliban started shooting with all kinds of weapons at an Iranian police station.

Light and semi-light weapons and artillery were used in the clashes, according to the official Tasnim news agency.

The escalation comes after Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi during his visit to Sistan-Baluchistan on May 18, warned Taliban leadership to give the people of Sistan their water rights.

He also warned the Taliban to take his words “seriously” and called on Kabul to observe Iran‘s water rights under the 1973 treaty. However, the Taliban rejected Raisi’s perceived threat.

Water, the real cause of dispute

Tensions over water rights have risen between Iran and Afghanistan in recent weeks, where Iran accused Afghanistan for blocking the flow of water and called for the release of more water.

Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, Afghanistan.

The Taliban had repeatedly denied violation of the agreement, and said low water levels on the Helmand River and rejected the preclude of water flows to Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province.

Iran has been struggling with drought for some 30 years, but has worsened over the past decade, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Meteorological Organization said there is an estimated 97pc of the country that now faces some level of drought.

The Taliban seized Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were in the final weeks of their pullout from the country after 20 years of war.

While not directly accepting the Taliban government, Iran has maintained relations with Afghanistan’s new rulers. Tehran also has called on the Taliban to allow women and girls to go to school.

Diplomacy didn’t work

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had earlier spoken on a phone with his Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi and asked for the reopening of the gates of the inland Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, and let the people on both sides be hydrated.

Right after the call, Muttaqi held a meeting with Hassan Kazemi Qom, the Iranian ambassador in Kabul, where they discussed issues of bilateral relations, including water issues.

“The minister of foreign affairs also noted that issues between the two sides can be better resolved through mutual dialog and understanding,” Afghan Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman said on Twitter.

Muttaqi had earlier said that Taliban remains committed to the 1973 treaty, but said that drought in Afghanistan and the region should also not be ignored.

Afghanistan has been facing its third year of drought, and has been ranked third on a 2023 emergency watch list issued by the International Rescue Committee.

On May 22, the Taliban foreign ministry called on Iran to prevent talking about water in the media and instead engaged in talks directly with Kabul to find a local solution to the problem.

It was the first deadly clashes between the border forces of Afghanistan and Iran since Taliban took control of the country in 2021.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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