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Aleppo’s echo in Europe

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The offensive in Aleppo by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the rapid retreat of the Syrian army are likely to have many consequences. Among them is the alignment of the “rebellious” countries within the EU.

The “rebellion” emerged last summer. Eight EU countries, led by Austria and Italy, sent a letter to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calling for a new chapter in relations with Syria.

Calling on the EU to “review and assess” its approach to Syria, they proposed the creation of an EU-Syria envoy tasked with re-establishing contact with the Syrian ambassador in Brussels and liaising with both Syrian and regional actors.

Other proposals included a strategic dialogue with Arab countries, developing the EU’s approach to Syria’s reconstruction, addressing the “unintended negative effects” of EU sanctions and creating conditions for refugees to return to Syria.

“After 13 years of war, we have to admit that our Syria policy has not improved much,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg at the time.

The fact that Damascus had survived with the help of Iran and Russia and that the Syrian opposition had been dismembered or driven into exile, ‘no matter how painful’, could no longer be ignored by the European Union, the Austrian minister argued.

The new eight-nation peace initiative was based on the abandonment of the EU’s famous ‘three no’s’ and the red line of ‘no peace with the regime of Bashar al-Assad’.

Indeed, Italy decided last July to send an ambassador to Damascus, the first G7 country to do so in years.

In October, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the Italian Senate that the EU should review its strategy on Syria and work with all stakeholders to create the conditions for the voluntary, safe and sustainable return of Syrian refugees to their homes.

Later in November, the Syrian consulate in Italy, which had suspended its activities in 2012 on the basis of ‘reciprocity’, announced the resumption of its services to Syrian nationals in the country.

In October, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer cited the 200,000 people who had crossed from Lebanon into Syria during the ongoing Israeli occupation and attacks as proof that Syria was safe, saying that ‘Syria is now certified as safe in many areas’.

Things went as expected. The EU announced that it would appoint a special envoy to evaluate its Syria policy. The head of the EU delegation to Syria, Michael Ohnmacht, had recently addressed the public in a video filmed in the capital, Damascus.

A spokesperson for the EU foreign ministry told DW that the appointment of a special envoy was being considered, but that it would not mean a change in the EU’s current policy towards Syria. The envoy would report directly to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW: “It has been clear for some time that Europe does not have a meaningful Syria strategy. We have fallen into the trap of saying that any engagement means legitimizing the regime, when in many ways it could be seen as a way to help improve the desperate situation on the ground,” Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.

Barnes-Dacey argued that if the EU continues to stay out of Syria altogether, it ‘cannot do much to help Syrians struggling to survive under the regime’s boot and cannot hope to compete with countries like Russia and Iran’.

By a strange coincidence, on 26 November, the day before the jihadist assault on Aleppo began, EUObserver published an article by Beder Camus. Mr Camus, who is based in Istanbul, is a member of the ‘opposition’ Syrian National Council and chairman of the Syrian Negotiations Commission.

In a direct appeal to EU countries calling for a change in Syria policy, he argued that without progress in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and without a political solution, any step towards normalisation with Damascus would ‘undermine the prospects for peace, stability and prosperity’.

“By all estimates, it is clear that Syria is not a safe place for refugees to return to,” the “opposition” leader wrote, adding that according to his own estimates, the Damascus regime currently controls “only about 50 per cent of Syria’s territory and population”, while a significant part of the country continues to suffer from ongoing violence and dire living conditions.

“There are many significant political risks in engaging with the Assad regime, not least that any investment and reconstruction will directly benefit the Assad regime and its network of corrupt officials, businessmen and military personnel,” Camus said.

The HTS attack certainly worked in Europe. After the fall of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city and commercial heartland, one would have expected a change in attitude towards the Assad regime, which controls most of Syria and has made it a safe country.

Cecilia Piccioni, Italy’s ambassador to Moscow, met with Russian foreign ministry officials over Russia’s alleged attack on an Italian charity in Aleppo.

For his part, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Sunday that Italy was “closely following developments in the crisis and that the Italian embassy in Damascus is in constant contact with citizens (mostly dual nationals) to facilitate their safe evacuation from the city”.

Tajani also said in X that the Russian attack had caused severe damage to the Terra Sancta College and called on all warring parties in Syria to “protect civilians”.

In a later statement, the foreign minister warned of a new migration crisis with the resumption of hostilities in Syria.

“Lebanon is already hosting one million Syrian refugees. There is a risk that a protracted civil war could lead to a new migration crisis,” Tajani said.

Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of an international humanitarian conference on Gaza in Cairo on Monday, Antonio Tajani warned that the conflict could drag on.

Tajani also argued that the conflict, which directly affects Lebanon, could also affect Europe.

It seems that the Aleppo offensive by the jihadists and their foreign backers will also succeed – at least for a while – in silencing the fractured voices in Europe.

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Athens postpones Mitsotakis-Erdoğan meeting after Imamoglu arrest

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The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has shaken diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Greece, leading Athens to announce the postponement of a planned meeting between the leaders of the two countries.

Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis stated, “Given these developments, it is becoming difficult to organize the High-Level Cooperation Council between Greece and Türkiye immediately.”

The High-Level Council consists of a series of meetings aimed at improving relations through “soft politics,” as progress on contentious issues such as territorial disputes has stalled.

As Kathimerini recently reported, the meeting planned between Greek leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 8 was not yet finalized due to the political crisis in Türkiye, even though negotiations between Athens and Ankara had reached their final stage.

The spokesperson added, “We are monitoring the developments in Türkiye. The situation remains fluid and concerning. Our stance on Imamoglu has not changed. Concessions on the rule of law and political freedoms are unacceptable, and convincing answers are needed for any concessions made.”

Marinakis mentioned that the issue could be discussed by the foreign ministers of both countries at the NATO foreign ministers’ summit in Brussels in early April.

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Trump’s proposed fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry

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Industry executives stated on Monday at a US Trade Representative (USTR) hearing that President Donald Trump’s plan to revitalize the US shipbuilding industry is likely to backfire, as it relies on proposed fees for China-linked vessels that would harm domestic ship operators, ports, exporters, and employment.

The discussion centers on the stacking of fees on Chinese-built ships, which could exceed $3 million per visit to US ports. The Trump administration claims these fees will deter China’s increasing commercial and military dominance in open seas and encourage domestic shipbuilding. US steelworkers’ unions, US steel manufacturers, and Democratic lawmakers support this effort, saying it will revitalize the domestic industry.

However, this idea has created a shockwave in the local maritime industry, as it threatens the survival of the same shipping companies and customers that would increase the demand for orders from the US shipyards Trump wants to rebuild.

“The effort to strengthen American shipbuilding would not serve the national interest if it inadvertently destroyed American-owned carriers,” said Edward Gonzalez, CEO of Seaboard Marine, the largest US international ocean cargo carrier, based in Florida, on Monday.

Like many US operators, Seaboard relies on Chinese-made ships. According to maritime data provider Alphaliner, its fleet of 24 ships includes 16 Chinese-built vessels.

US ship operators said that fees on China-linked ships would push more US cargo to foreign-capitalized ocean transport companies, which have the resources to better handle the change.

According to the USTR, China’s share of the shipbuilding market rose from under 5% in 1999 to over 50% in 2023.

Speakers said that US shipyards produce fewer than 10 ships a year, while China produces 1,000.

Meanwhile, industry executives noted that shipbuilders in Japan and Korea would struggle to meet demand in the years it would take for US shipyards to build capacity.

Kathy Metcalf, CEO of the Chamber of Shipping of America, said that replacing existing Chinese-built ships is not like flipping a light switch. “Punishing China and the US maritime transport system is not an acceptable outcome,” she said.

US ship operators support key American industries such as manufacturing, mining, and agriculture by transporting goods on inland waterways, along the Great Lakes, and up and down the country’s coasts.

Agricultural exporters are struggling to book ships after May due to uncertainty in the USTR plan, while coal industry representatives also state that the fees make it difficult to offer their goods to the global market.

“I urge you to ensure that your efforts to increase domestic shipbuilding do not come at the expense of farmers’ access to the market,” said Mike Koehne, a board member of the American Soybean Association, who grows soybeans and corn in Indiana.

Nate Herman, senior vice president of policy for the American Apparel & Footwear Association, which is dependent on imports, said port fees would lead to job losses for American workers, higher costs for American exports and imports, and scarcity and rising prices for American consumers.

He cited a new study by various trade groups showing that high costs from port fees would cause US exports to fall by almost 12% and GDP to fall by 0.25%.

“Hardworking American families cannot afford more price increases and product shortages, and American manufacturers and farmers cannot afford to lose more export markets,” Herman said.

Representative Rosa DeLauro and 62 other Democrats in Congress supported the proposed fees and other “swift and decisive” actions in a letter sent to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Monday, saying that China’s dominance in the sector poses “unacceptable costs and risks” in terms of job losses and critical manufacturing capacity.

They requested the USTR to provide a facility that would allow firms to avoid fees by routing their cargo through Mexico or Canada.

The USTR, which will hear more comments at a hearing on Wednesday before finalizing the proposal under the Unfair Trade Practices Act, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In the current proposal, to completely avoid fees, ship operators must be based outside of China, have less than 25% of the ships in their fleet built in China, and not plan to order or take delivery from Chinese shipyards in the next two years.

A draft executive order seen by Reuters earlier this month would further narrow this limit by imposing port fees on all fleets with Chinese-built ships.

Shipowners could try to minimize the blow by using larger ships and limiting calls to major US ports, but this could put those ports in a difficult situation and lead to supply chain-related stress.

According to ship and port operators, ship operators could also shift cargo bound for the US to ports in Canada and Mexico and rely on trucks and trains to complete the journey, but this measure could also clog border crossings and cause more infrastructure wear and tear.

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US expresses optimism after Riyadh talks with Russia

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According to a CBS News report citing informed sources, the technical team from the US that participated in talks with a Russian delegation in Riyadh submitted an “optimistic” assessment to the administration of President Donald Trump.

Reuters reported that discussions between Russia and the US included steps to support Trump’s efforts to end the conflict, including a potential ceasefire in the Black Sea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Black Sea initiative was on the agenda in Riyadh.

Peskov stated that maritime security was a primary focus. Bloomberg added that technical details regarding a 30-day halt in attacks on energy facilities were also discussed.

On March 24, Trump addressed the topics discussed in Riyadh, saying, “Right now, we’re talking about territories. We’re talking about border lines, power, and ownership of power plants.”

The US president also expressed general satisfaction with the progress of the talks and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for his participation.

A White House source told Reuters that progress had been made in the Riyadh meetings and that a “positive announcement” was expected soon. Peskov added that Putin would be briefed immediately on the outcomes of the Russian and American delegations’ discussions.

Additionally, RIA Novosti reported, citing a source, that the Russian delegation was in good spirits following the talks with US representatives in Saudi Arabia.

The meeting between the two delegations lasted over 12 hours on March 24 at The Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, with three breaks. The discussions were closed to the press.

The Russian side was represented by Sergey Beseda, advisor to the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Grigory Karasin, head of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Federation Council. Russian Deputy President Yury Ushakov noted that these individuals were experienced diplomats well-versed in international affairs.

According to foreign media reports, the US delegation included Andrew Peek, senior director for Europe at the National Security Council, and Michael Anton, director of policy planning at the State Department, among others.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova emphasized that while major breakthroughs should not be expected from the Riyadh talks, it was important to recognize that work had been done across multiple areas.

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