Diplomacy
Aleppo’s echo in Europe
The offensive in Aleppo by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the rapid retreat of the Syrian army are likely to have many consequences. Among them is the alignment of the “rebellious” countries within the EU.
The “rebellion” emerged last summer. Eight EU countries, led by Austria and Italy, sent a letter to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calling for a new chapter in relations with Syria.
Calling on the EU to “review and assess” its approach to Syria, they proposed the creation of an EU-Syria envoy tasked with re-establishing contact with the Syrian ambassador in Brussels and liaising with both Syrian and regional actors.
Other proposals included a strategic dialogue with Arab countries, developing the EU’s approach to Syria’s reconstruction, addressing the “unintended negative effects” of EU sanctions and creating conditions for refugees to return to Syria.
“After 13 years of war, we have to admit that our Syria policy has not improved much,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg at the time.
The fact that Damascus had survived with the help of Iran and Russia and that the Syrian opposition had been dismembered or driven into exile, ‘no matter how painful’, could no longer be ignored by the European Union, the Austrian minister argued.
The new eight-nation peace initiative was based on the abandonment of the EU’s famous ‘three no’s’ and the red line of ‘no peace with the regime of Bashar al-Assad’.
Indeed, Italy decided last July to send an ambassador to Damascus, the first G7 country to do so in years.
In October, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the Italian Senate that the EU should review its strategy on Syria and work with all stakeholders to create the conditions for the voluntary, safe and sustainable return of Syrian refugees to their homes.
Later in November, the Syrian consulate in Italy, which had suspended its activities in 2012 on the basis of ‘reciprocity’, announced the resumption of its services to Syrian nationals in the country.
In October, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer cited the 200,000 people who had crossed from Lebanon into Syria during the ongoing Israeli occupation and attacks as proof that Syria was safe, saying that ‘Syria is now certified as safe in many areas’.
Things went as expected. The EU announced that it would appoint a special envoy to evaluate its Syria policy. The head of the EU delegation to Syria, Michael Ohnmacht, had recently addressed the public in a video filmed in the capital, Damascus.
A spokesperson for the EU foreign ministry told DW that the appointment of a special envoy was being considered, but that it would not mean a change in the EU’s current policy towards Syria. The envoy would report directly to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW: “It has been clear for some time that Europe does not have a meaningful Syria strategy. We have fallen into the trap of saying that any engagement means legitimizing the regime, when in many ways it could be seen as a way to help improve the desperate situation on the ground,” Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.
Barnes-Dacey argued that if the EU continues to stay out of Syria altogether, it ‘cannot do much to help Syrians struggling to survive under the regime’s boot and cannot hope to compete with countries like Russia and Iran’.
By a strange coincidence, on 26 November, the day before the jihadist assault on Aleppo began, EUObserver published an article by Beder Camus. Mr Camus, who is based in Istanbul, is a member of the ‘opposition’ Syrian National Council and chairman of the Syrian Negotiations Commission.
In a direct appeal to EU countries calling for a change in Syria policy, he argued that without progress in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and without a political solution, any step towards normalisation with Damascus would ‘undermine the prospects for peace, stability and prosperity’.
“By all estimates, it is clear that Syria is not a safe place for refugees to return to,” the “opposition” leader wrote, adding that according to his own estimates, the Damascus regime currently controls “only about 50 per cent of Syria’s territory and population”, while a significant part of the country continues to suffer from ongoing violence and dire living conditions.
“There are many significant political risks in engaging with the Assad regime, not least that any investment and reconstruction will directly benefit the Assad regime and its network of corrupt officials, businessmen and military personnel,” Camus said.
The HTS attack certainly worked in Europe. After the fall of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city and commercial heartland, one would have expected a change in attitude towards the Assad regime, which controls most of Syria and has made it a safe country.
Cecilia Piccioni, Italy’s ambassador to Moscow, met with Russian foreign ministry officials over Russia’s alleged attack on an Italian charity in Aleppo.
For his part, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Sunday that Italy was “closely following developments in the crisis and that the Italian embassy in Damascus is in constant contact with citizens (mostly dual nationals) to facilitate their safe evacuation from the city”.
Tajani also said in X that the Russian attack had caused severe damage to the Terra Sancta College and called on all warring parties in Syria to “protect civilians”.
In a later statement, the foreign minister warned of a new migration crisis with the resumption of hostilities in Syria.
“Lebanon is already hosting one million Syrian refugees. There is a risk that a protracted civil war could lead to a new migration crisis,” Tajani said.
Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of an international humanitarian conference on Gaza in Cairo on Monday, Antonio Tajani warned that the conflict could drag on.
Tajani also argued that the conflict, which directly affects Lebanon, could also affect Europe.
It seems that the Aleppo offensive by the jihadists and their foreign backers will also succeed – at least for a while – in silencing the fractured voices in Europe.
As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, US President Donald Trump is considering direct military action to deliver a permanent blow to Iran’s nuclear program.
President Trump, who met with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room yesterday, is said to have a critical 24 to 48 hours to decide between diplomacy and military intervention. US officials indicate that it will become clear within this timeframe whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible.
Before the meeting, Trump significantly hardened his rhetoric against Iran, claiming to know exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hiding. In a social media post, Trump stated, “He is an easy target but he is safe there. We will not take him out (kill him!), at least for now. But we do not want missiles fired at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is running out.” In another post, he claimed, “We have complete and total control of the skies over Iran right now.”
A final chance for diplomacy?
Despite this intimidating rhetoric, US negotiators believe Iran is in a weak position and can be forced back to the negotiating table. According to several officials involved in the diplomatic process who spoke to ABC News, it is thought that Iran might eventually agree to a deal requiring it to abandon all nuclear enrichment activities.
Officials noted that while Iran and Israel were exchanging attacks, Iran signaled its intention to resume talks with the US. However, the Trump administration is seeking more concrete commitments before abandoning the path to war. If Iran returns to negotiations and agrees to halt uranium enrichment, US officials believe a high-level meeting, led by Special Representative Steve Witkoff and potentially Vice President JD Vance, could take place this week.
This scenario, however, requires Iran to act quickly. President Trump has previously expressed that his patience with the situation in the Middle East is wearing thin. Sources close to the US President said that Trump is frustrated by a destabilized Iran’s inability to provide immediate responses to his administration and is not inclined to allow a situation where Tehran appears to have successfully called his military bluff.
US military buildup increases
Meanwhile, the US military has already begun deploying assets to the region. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said of the US posture in the Middle East, “We are strong, we are ready, we are on defense, and we are there.”
Although these moves are described as defensive, the repositioning of assets leaves options open should the Trump administration decide to directly assist Israel’s ongoing offensive against Iran. “It is our role to keep options on the table, but our posture is still defensive,” an American official stated.
These steps include sending additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to protect the approximately 40,000 American troops stationed in the region. Additionally, more than 30 refueling aircraft have been sent to Europe. Another American official said these planes were moved to the European theater to provide Trump with “options” if the situation escalates further and the US decides to become more involved. The refueling tankers could be used to assist in refueling Israeli jets, offering Trump a less intensive military engagement option.
‘Bunker buster’ bombs on the table
One of the biggest questions facing Trump is whether the US will drop GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. Iran hawks argue this move is necessary to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear threat. Israel does not possess this bomb, which is believed to be the only weapon capable of destroying the highly protected nuclear facility buried deep inside an Iranian mountain.
Furthermore, Israel does not have the B-2 stealth bomber capable of dropping this bomb in its inventory. This situation has led current and former Israeli officials to pressure the US to enter the conflict. The US fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is currently located at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Six of these aircraft were previously deployed to the air base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a location much closer to Iran.
Israel pressures Washington to act
Former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told CNN on Monday, “The United States is much stronger than we are. They have capabilities that we do not have. I am sure that if the US decides to act, it will do so not only for our interests but for its own.”
Another former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, told CNN that Trump has a “responsibility to ensure the region moves in a positive direction and that the world is free from a nuclear-armed Iran.”
In the fifth day of missile attacks, Israel has damaged Iran’s energy facilities, missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, command centers, and state television. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows no interest in negotiations after launching the largest-ever military operation against his regional rival last week. In the ongoing large-scale missile exchanges between the two sides, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 220 in Iran.
Trump’s agenda is changing
Among the signs that the Trump administration may be approaching military action is the possibility that the president will cancel his travel plans to a NATO summit in the Netherlands next week. At a press conference yesterday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the summit was still “on the schedule” but that the situation could change depending on the dynamic with Iran. “This is a very fast-moving situation. So I would say anything is possible,” Bruce assessed.
President Trump had returned to Washington early from the G7 summit in Canada on Monday to monitor the situation in the Middle East from the White House.
Greek officials and diplomats find the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel on multiple fronts to be alarming.
According to an assessment in Kathimerini, the deepening polarization hinders Greece’s efforts to play the role of an “honest broker” in Middle East conflicts.
While Athens wants to maintain this mediator role, it also highly values the closest relationship it has ever established with Israel. Reconciling these two goals will require a delicate balance, such as sometimes aligning with the majority at the United Nations and other times voting for a ceasefire to resume humanitarian aid in Gaza without appearing to have abandoned Israel.
However, the report suggests that what worries Greece the most is the possibility that a weakened Iran could strengthen Türkiye, which Athens sees as a “nominal ally” but, in reality, the greatest threat to its sovereignty.
Despite this, according to Kathimerini, Greece is relieved that many Arab countries also wish to see Iran lose power.
A statement from the Greek government confirmed that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, June 14, at the latter’s initiative.
During the call, Mitsotakis emphasized the urgent need to de-escalate tensions in the region. While acknowledging that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons, he stressed that diplomacy is the only valid path and warned against opening new fronts of conflict in the Middle East.
The Greek leader also reiterated the necessity of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages, and the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians in need.
Furthermore, Mitsotakis discussed the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday.
According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the two leaders reviewed the latest developments in the region, focusing particularly on the effects of Israel’s military operations targeting Iran.
The SPA report noted that both leaders emphasized the need for restraint and de-escalation, highlighting the importance of resolving disputes through diplomatic means.
The phone call took place amid heightened tensions following a series of retaliatory strikes between the two countries.
The recent tension has raised concerns about a wider regional conflict, prompting international leaders to urge all parties to avoid further escalation.
In a statement released late Monday, the G7 countries expressed their support for Israel and described Iran as the “source of instability in the Middle East.”
G7 leaders called for a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.
“We affirm Israel’s right to self-defense. We reiterate our support for Israel’s security,” the G7 statement declared.
Asserting that Iran is the “main source of regional instability and terrorism,” the G7 nations stated they were “clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”
“We strongly recommend that resolving the Iran crisis will lead to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza,” the G7 communiqué said, adding that the countries are also prepared to coordinate on maintaining stability in energy markets.
Iran maintains that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and, as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), has the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment.
Israel, which is not a party to the NPT, is widely believed to be the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, a status it neither confirms nor denies.
President Donald Trump decided to leave the G7 summit in Canada early and return to Washington due to the situation in the Middle East.
The US maintains that it has not been involved in the attacks on Iran so far, despite Trump stating on Friday that he had prior knowledge of Israel’s strikes and described them as “perfect.”
Washington is warning Tehran not to attack US interests or personnel in the region.
Following Monday’s strike, in which Israel hit Iranian state television, Trump said on social media that “everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.”
Additionally, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the Israel-Iran conflict in phone calls with his British, French, and EU counterparts on Monday.
Is Israel done with ‘the devil it knows’?
Iran warns of harsh response if US enters war
China pledges aid and signs friendship treaty at Central Asia summit
Big Tech lobbies for a 10-year ban on state-level AI regulations
France bans Israeli arms manufacturers from Paris Air Show
-
Opinion2 weeks agoEuropean defense autonomy and Germany’s military role enter a turning point
-
Asia2 weeks agoOECD forecasts slower Chinese economic growth due to trade war
-
Diplomacy5 days agoFormer diplomat warns forcing Iran out of the NPT is the greatest danger
-
Asia2 weeks agoLee Jae-myung inaugurated as South Korea’s new president, vows unity and economic revival
-
Asia1 week agoJapan, US showcase B-52 bombers in nuclear deterrence dialogue
-
Middle East7 days agoNetanyahu’s government survives no-confidence vote as Haredi crisis is delayed
-
Europe2 weeks agoVatican under Pope Leo XIV warns against AI ‘playing God,’ urges ethical development
-
Europe2 weeks agoMerz government plans €46 billion corporate tax cut for Germany
