Diplomacy
Berliner Zeitung: Did a Putin-Trump deal topple Assad?

The recent ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, following ten days of intense jihadist attacks, has triggered widespread speculation regarding the factors behind this rapid political collapse. Emerging analyses suggest that international political maneuvers may have played a decisive role in this unprecedented event.
Michael Maier, a journalist at the German daily Berliner Zeitung, provocatively asks: “Assad’s fall: A fiasco for Putin or collusion with Trump?” He contends that the swift jihadist takeover of Damascus represents “a clear defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin.”
Maier asserts that if Russia was caught off guard by these developments, it marks a significant failure of Russian intelligence—on par with its missteps in 2014 during the Ukraine crisis. Citing The New York Times, Maier notes that the rebel offensive was months in the making, with meticulous planning preceding Assad’s ouster.
Maier draws parallels between Russia’s withdrawal of warships from Syria’s Tartous naval base and the chaotic American exit from Afghanistan. He highlights that the implications extend far beyond Syria:
China, reliant on the military strength of Russia and Iran to project influence in the Middle East, now faces a precarious regional situation.
Turkey and Israel emerge as key beneficiaries. Maier argues that both countries have militarily facilitated Assad’s fall and may now pursue territorial gains amidst Syria’s power vacuums.
Maier further points out the shocking ease with which rebel forces advanced to Damascus, seemingly unopposed, as the Syrian army “almost disappeared.” He notes, “Assad was in Moscow for a prolonged period before his downfall. It’s unclear if he ever returned to Syria.” The swift abandonment of previously hard-fought positions by Syrian, Russian, and Iranian forces over the past 13 years underscores the speed of this geopolitical shift.
A U.S.-Russia grand bargain?
Speculation about a possible “grand bargain” between Washington and Moscow is growing. Maier references recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that America’s involvement in Syria should remain limited. However, the U.S. has simultaneously announced that 900 troops will stay in Syria to secure northeastern oil fields.
Maier posits that Russia might benefit from such a deal by redirecting its military focus to Ukraine, consolidating its territorial gains there, and achieving a more stable negotiating position. He suggests Assad’s overthrow could be part of a broader geopolitical trade-off, allowing Russia to maintain influence in Syria through military bases while opening a pathway to territorial concessions in Ukraine.
Hungary’s role
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán has reportedly contributed to discussions surrounding this “grand bargain.” One potential outcome could involve the repatriation of Syrian refugees from Europe and Turkey, a move that would align with Orbán’s domestic and EU policies.
Maier also speculates that the agreement might curb the regional ambitions of Turkey’s Erdoğan and Israel’s Netanyahu, offering a degree of balance in the Middle East.
According to Maier, these developments could be part of a larger U.S. strategy to drive a wedge between Russia and China. He references U.S. journalist Tucker Carlson’s recent interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, where similar ideas were floated.
Regardless of the underlying motivations, Maier concludes, “Putin has some explaining to do to Chinese President Xi Jinping.”
Diplomacy
Critical 48 hours for US decision on Iran as military options are weighed

As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, US President Donald Trump is considering direct military action to deliver a permanent blow to Iran’s nuclear program.
President Trump, who met with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room yesterday, is said to have a critical 24 to 48 hours to decide between diplomacy and military intervention. US officials indicate that it will become clear within this timeframe whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible.
Before the meeting, Trump significantly hardened his rhetoric against Iran, claiming to know exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hiding. In a social media post, Trump stated, “He is an easy target but he is safe there. We will not take him out (kill him!), at least for now. But we do not want missiles fired at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is running out.” In another post, he claimed, “We have complete and total control of the skies over Iran right now.”
A final chance for diplomacy?
Despite this intimidating rhetoric, US negotiators believe Iran is in a weak position and can be forced back to the negotiating table. According to several officials involved in the diplomatic process who spoke to ABC News, it is thought that Iran might eventually agree to a deal requiring it to abandon all nuclear enrichment activities.
Officials noted that while Iran and Israel were exchanging attacks, Iran signaled its intention to resume talks with the US. However, the Trump administration is seeking more concrete commitments before abandoning the path to war. If Iran returns to negotiations and agrees to halt uranium enrichment, US officials believe a high-level meeting, led by Special Representative Steve Witkoff and potentially Vice President JD Vance, could take place this week.
This scenario, however, requires Iran to act quickly. President Trump has previously expressed that his patience with the situation in the Middle East is wearing thin. Sources close to the US President said that Trump is frustrated by a destabilized Iran’s inability to provide immediate responses to his administration and is not inclined to allow a situation where Tehran appears to have successfully called his military bluff.
US military buildup increases
Meanwhile, the US military has already begun deploying assets to the region. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said of the US posture in the Middle East, “We are strong, we are ready, we are on defense, and we are there.”
Although these moves are described as defensive, the repositioning of assets leaves options open should the Trump administration decide to directly assist Israel’s ongoing offensive against Iran. “It is our role to keep options on the table, but our posture is still defensive,” an American official stated.
These steps include sending additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to protect the approximately 40,000 American troops stationed in the region. Additionally, more than 30 refueling aircraft have been sent to Europe. Another American official said these planes were moved to the European theater to provide Trump with “options” if the situation escalates further and the US decides to become more involved. The refueling tankers could be used to assist in refueling Israeli jets, offering Trump a less intensive military engagement option.
‘Bunker buster’ bombs on the table
One of the biggest questions facing Trump is whether the US will drop GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. Iran hawks argue this move is necessary to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear threat. Israel does not possess this bomb, which is believed to be the only weapon capable of destroying the highly protected nuclear facility buried deep inside an Iranian mountain.
Furthermore, Israel does not have the B-2 stealth bomber capable of dropping this bomb in its inventory. This situation has led current and former Israeli officials to pressure the US to enter the conflict. The US fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is currently located at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Six of these aircraft were previously deployed to the air base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a location much closer to Iran.
Israel pressures Washington to act
Former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told CNN on Monday, “The United States is much stronger than we are. They have capabilities that we do not have. I am sure that if the US decides to act, it will do so not only for our interests but for its own.”
Another former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, told CNN that Trump has a “responsibility to ensure the region moves in a positive direction and that the world is free from a nuclear-armed Iran.”
In the fifth day of missile attacks, Israel has damaged Iran’s energy facilities, missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, command centers, and state television. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows no interest in negotiations after launching the largest-ever military operation against his regional rival last week. In the ongoing large-scale missile exchanges between the two sides, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 220 in Iran.
Trump’s agenda is changing
Among the signs that the Trump administration may be approaching military action is the possibility that the president will cancel his travel plans to a NATO summit in the Netherlands next week. At a press conference yesterday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the summit was still “on the schedule” but that the situation could change depending on the dynamic with Iran. “This is a very fast-moving situation. So I would say anything is possible,” Bruce assessed.
President Trump had returned to Washington early from the G7 summit in Canada on Monday to monitor the situation in the Middle East from the White House.
Diplomacy
Greece fears a weakened Iran could empower Türkiye amid regional conflict

Greek officials and diplomats find the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel on multiple fronts to be alarming.
According to an assessment in Kathimerini, the deepening polarization hinders Greece’s efforts to play the role of an “honest broker” in Middle East conflicts.
While Athens wants to maintain this mediator role, it also highly values the closest relationship it has ever established with Israel. Reconciling these two goals will require a delicate balance, such as sometimes aligning with the majority at the United Nations and other times voting for a ceasefire to resume humanitarian aid in Gaza without appearing to have abandoned Israel.
However, the report suggests that what worries Greece the most is the possibility that a weakened Iran could strengthen Türkiye, which Athens sees as a “nominal ally” but, in reality, the greatest threat to its sovereignty.
Despite this, according to Kathimerini, Greece is relieved that many Arab countries also wish to see Iran lose power.
A statement from the Greek government confirmed that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, June 14, at the latter’s initiative.
During the call, Mitsotakis emphasized the urgent need to de-escalate tensions in the region. While acknowledging that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons, he stressed that diplomacy is the only valid path and warned against opening new fronts of conflict in the Middle East.
The Greek leader also reiterated the necessity of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages, and the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians in need.
Furthermore, Mitsotakis discussed the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday.
According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the two leaders reviewed the latest developments in the region, focusing particularly on the effects of Israel’s military operations targeting Iran.
The SPA report noted that both leaders emphasized the need for restraint and de-escalation, highlighting the importance of resolving disputes through diplomatic means.
The phone call took place amid heightened tensions following a series of retaliatory strikes between the two countries.
The recent tension has raised concerns about a wider regional conflict, prompting international leaders to urge all parties to avoid further escalation.
Diplomacy
G7 declares support for Israel, labels Iran the source of instability

In a statement released late Monday, the G7 countries expressed their support for Israel and described Iran as the “source of instability in the Middle East.”
G7 leaders called for a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.
“We affirm Israel’s right to self-defense. We reiterate our support for Israel’s security,” the G7 statement declared.
Asserting that Iran is the “main source of regional instability and terrorism,” the G7 nations stated they were “clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”
“We strongly recommend that resolving the Iran crisis will lead to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza,” the G7 communiqué said, adding that the countries are also prepared to coordinate on maintaining stability in energy markets.
Iran maintains that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and, as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), has the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment.
Israel, which is not a party to the NPT, is widely believed to be the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, a status it neither confirms nor denies.
President Donald Trump decided to leave the G7 summit in Canada early and return to Washington due to the situation in the Middle East.
The US maintains that it has not been involved in the attacks on Iran so far, despite Trump stating on Friday that he had prior knowledge of Israel’s strikes and described them as “perfect.”
Washington is warning Tehran not to attack US interests or personnel in the region.
Following Monday’s strike, in which Israel hit Iranian state television, Trump said on social media that “everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.”
Additionally, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the Israel-Iran conflict in phone calls with his British, French, and EU counterparts on Monday.
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