President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon met with the Director General of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Service (ISI) Muhammad Asim Malik, where both sides discussed regional and bilateral issues.
Both sides discussed the current state and prospects of political relations between Tajikistan and Pakistan, according to the press service of the head of the Republic of Tajikistan.
They also emphasized taking practical action in the direction of ensuring regional peace, stability and security, as well as ways to resolve other pressing issues of bilateral cooperation.
Emomali Rahmon, expressing satisfaction with the fruitful process of political relations between the parties, highly praised the level of mutual trust between the two states.
They stressed the need to further strengthen cooperation in the areas of combating terrorism, extremism, radicalism, drug trafficking, transnational crime and other issues of mutual interest.
The meeting between Rahmon and Malik in Dushanbe takes place while tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Islamabad have intensified over the issue of Pakistani Taliban (TTP).
From another point of view, this meeting is highly diplomatic and important because Tajikistan is the only neighboring country of Afghanistan that does not have very warm and favorable relations with the Taliban, and on the contrary, it hosts members of the National Resistance Front, one of the opposing groups of the Taliban.
Therefore, the meeting of the head of ISI with the highest official of Tajikistan can be a warning for the Taliban – a new military-political front may be forming with the support of two neighboring countries of Afghanistan against the Taliban rule based in Kabul.
Is there any other military front on the wing to deal with the Taliban government in Kabul.
This military-political front, unlike the Taliban, which is a mono-ethnic movement, is formed from all the ethnic groups in Afghanistan and has the full support of Pakistan and Tajikistan, it can pose a very serious challenge to the Taliban. But are all the conditions and facilities ready for the formation of such a front? We will try to answer this question below.
The political opponents of the Taliban are in a very chaotic and scattered situation, and after more than three years have passed since this group came to power, they have not yet been able to overcome their differences and create a large and coherent military-political front against the Kabul-based government.
However, at the local and limited level, efforts have been made in both military and political directions, and in some places, these efforts have caused trouble for the Taliban. Among them, scattered and limited military attacks of the National Resistance Front and the Freedom Front have to some extent challenged the Taliban’s claim of providing security throughout the country.
This group has repeatedly denied the existence of any resistance against itself and has even claimed that ISIS does not have a physical presence in Afghanistan. But ISIS has shown how false and baseless the Taliban’s claim is every time by carrying out deadly suicide attacks. Azadi Front and National Resistance Front also assassinate Taliban members every now and then in cities, which again exposes the lie of maintaining security by the Taliban.
Major global and regional players are preferring to interact with the Taliban rather than standing opposite
Of course, these attacks are not convincing for anyone, even the leaders of the two fronts, and the Taliban mostly do not take them seriously, because they have not been able to target large and decisive targets.
At the global and regional level, the situation is not as good as the Taliban opponents want. Major countries, as well as the majority of Afghanistan’s neighbors, prefer to interact with the Taliban rather than stand by those who, most of them, once took their test in Afghanistan’s political field and got a failing grade.
However, the primitive performance and political stubbornness that the Taliban have displayed in the past three years have caused the world to act cautiously in dealing with them. No country in the world has yet come forward to recognize the regime based in Kabul. Even regional allies of the Taliban see the expediency in informal interaction with this group rather than accepting the high risk of recognizing it and this is a source of encouragement for Taliban opponents.
In such a situation, if Pakistan and Tajikistan agree on opening a new front against the Taliban, it can increase the political weight of scattered movements against the Taliban. If the opposition has a significant brilliance in the military field, it is not even unlikely that more countries will join the military-political front desired by the Taliban opposition.
We must admit that Pakistan plays a very important and decisive role in the chronic and wide-ranging crisis in Afghanistan. Historical experience tells us that when governments based in Kabul fail to establish good relations with Pakistan, sooner or later they are doomed to collapse.
The Pakistani army manages the terror industry – one of the deadliest industries – and this country has an exceptional and unique position in the country’s politics due to having the longest border – which is very vulnerable and uncontrollable – with Afghanistan. The higher the level of conflict and tension with Islamabad, the greater the vulnerability of Afghanistan, which is never in the country’s favor.
Tajik president’s meeting with the head of Pakistan’s spy agency could be taken as the first step to form a large militarily-political front.
On the other hand, although Tajikistan is a weak country in regional political games and the resistance front and the rest of the armed opposition of the Taliban have not yet achieved significant military achievements in the battlefield with the Taliban after more than three years, Imam Ali Rahman’s meeting with the head of the ISI can be the first step to form a large military-political front.
With this description, the conditions for planning such a front are both favorable and unfavorable. This is because the regime based in Kabul has not yet been recognized and the Taliban’s ultra-reactionary dealings with citizens, especially women, will cause the world to distance itself from them or maintain its relationship at the current level.
But because the actors opposing the Taliban suffer from many weaknesses and confusion and have not succeeded in creating a big challenge for this group, there is a possibility that the opportunities that have arisen will be wasted, and finally countries like Tajikistan and Pakistan will also depend on their security and political interests. Like other countries, take the path of compromise with the Taliban. This means, favorable conditions for the formation of a large military-political front against the Taliban can soon turn into its opposite.