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Copper market rocked by Chilean mine strike

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Unionised workers at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine in northern Chile, went on strike on Tuesday 13 August. If the strike continues, the copper market could lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

Workers from Union No.1 at the Escondida mine, which means ‘hidden’, in northern Chile went on strike on Tuesday 13 August. The Escondida mine is a major source of copper, accounting for 5 per cent of the world’s total mined copper. The mine takes its name from the rich ore deposits ‘hidden’ beneath the Atamaca desert. While it is known that 90 per cent of the workers at Australia-based BHP, the world’s largest copper mining company, are members of the union, BHP, which owns 60 per cent of the shares in the Escondida mine, was shaken by the strike. The workers’ demands include a reduction in working days, an increase in bonuses and compensation payments, and the distribution of 1% of the mine’s shares to the workers. The distribution of shares to the workers, which is one of the main points of contention, amounts to $35,000 per worker. During the dispute, BHP offered the workers a bonus of $28,900, but the workers did not take up the offer, which was well below their expectations of $35,000.

BHP declares state of emergency

The process of reaching an agreement between BHP and the union continues. The company, in disagreement with the union over the demands, has declared a state of emergency and is continuing to mine with non-union labour. The union responded by accusing BHP of breaking strike rules by using reserve labour and demanding ‘an immediate end to this anti-union practice’.

In a statement, BHP said it had invited the union to resume talks on Tuesday, but that the invitation had gone unanswered, and that it had implemented its contingency plan and continued mining operations with non-union workers on minimum hours. On 14 August, the company offered the union to suspend the strike until 8pm on 15 August if negotiations continued. However, the union is not in favour of suspending the strike, even temporarily. According to the union, BHP has placed too many conditions on the resumption of negotiations, while at the same time replacing workers and engaging in anti-union activities. The union described the company’s demands and conditions as “making it impossible to resume talks” and complained that the company had given it too little time to assess the conditions and make a decision.

‘BHP could lose $795m if strike drags on’

Following the start of the strike, the French news agency AFP reported today that BHP shares had fallen by almost 1 per cent. US investment bank Goldman Sachs highlighted that the company would lose at least $250 million if the strike lasted 10 days, while Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual highlighted the union’s strike in 2017. According to BTG Pactual, if the current strike lasts as long as the one in 2017, BHP’s daily loss could be between $25m and $30m. The Brazilian investment bank noted in its report that the current situation is also damaging Chile’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Goldman Sachs estimated that if the strike lasted 44 days, the damage would reach USD 795 million.

Copper stock markets are shaky

In addition to the damage to the company, it is also interesting to see how the copper market will be affected by this strike. The copper market was shaken by the closure of the Panamanian copper company Cobre Panama in the final months of last year. If the current strike at the Escondida mine, which is very important to the market, has a similar result to the copper price spike caused by the strike in 2017, it could be very damaging to the market. According to the Australian Mining news agency, the Copper Exchange is struggling to hold on to its gains from the Covid-19 period. Despite the risk of disruption, copper prices are currently holding steady at the London Metal Exchange’s announced price of USD 8,968.50 per tonne, in line with weak demand from China. However, this could change if the strike continues.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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