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EU-Mercosur free trade agreement signed

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took a significant step last Friday by signing a landmark trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur.

“Today is truly a historic milestone,” von der Leyen stated after summit talks with the leaders of Mercosur in Montevideo, Uruguay.

The agreement focuses on reducing trade barriers. Tariffs on 91% of products traded between the EU and Mercosur will be gradually eliminated. According to European Commission calculations, this will result in annual savings of approximately €4 billion for European exporters.

South America has a competitive edge in agricultural raw materials and resources critical for climate transformation, while Europe specializes in supplying cars, machinery, and chemical products.

The EU is Mercosur’s second-largest trading partner after China, accounting for 15% of the bloc’s trade volume, compared to China’s 24% share.

Recently, trade volume for goods between the EU and Mercosur reached approximately €110 billion, representing about 2% of the EU’s total foreign trade.

The agreement, negotiated over 25 years, would establish a free trade zone encompassing more than 750 million people. However, it faces strong opposition from France, which fears cheap poultry and beef imports could harm its farmers.

Mercosur imposes some of the world’s highest external tariffs 35% on cars, 14-18% on car parts, 14-20% on machinery, and 18% on chemicals.

Under the agreement, 91% of these tariffs will be abolished, while the EU will eliminate 92% of its own import duties.

The EU also anticipates significant benefits from enhanced access to state infrastructure tenders and expanded market access in sectors like postal and logistics services, telecommunications, and finance.

In contrast to France, Germany has welcomed the deal. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) President Siegfried Russwurm hailed the agreement as a much-needed boost for German and European economies.

As of 2023, German exports to Mercosur totaled approximately $16 billion, leading EU countries. Germany’s exports are followed by those of Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France. Customs reductions could save German companies €400-500 million annually. According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), 12,500 German companies export to Mercosur, with 72% being small and medium-sized enterprises. These exports support 244,000 jobs in Germany.

This agreement, which von der Leyen failed to secure during her first term, represents a major geopolitical victory as she embarks on her second term.

The deal aims to deepen ties between the EU and Mercosur members Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia, amid rising global trade tensions.

At a joint press conference, von der Leyen emphasized: “We are sending a clear and strong message. We are showing that democracies can trust each other in an increasingly confrontational world. This agreement is not only an economic opportunity; it is also a political necessity.”

The visit of von der Leyen and EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič to Uruguay to finalize the deal sparked unrest in France, where the government had fallen just hours earlier.

France is expected to intensify its opposition but will need to expand its coalition, which already includes Poland, Austria, and Ireland, to block the deal’s ratification.

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas stated: “France’s voice remains strong in Europe. We are not alone in opposing Mercosur in its current form. We can achieve a blocking minority.”

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña plans to visit France to convince President Emmanuel Macron to support the agreement. Meanwhile, Italy’s stance remains undecided, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signaling conditional approval based on guarantees and compensation for the agricultural sector in the event of market imbalances.

As a major EU member, Italy’s decision could significantly impact the agreement’s fate.

The conclusion of political negotiations marks an important milestone for the EU-Mercosur agreement. However, the process is far from complete.

The finalized text will be published next week, allowing EU member states to express their views. It must undergo legal scrutiny and translation, which could take months.

To expedite the process, Brussels may separate the trade chapter from the political and cooperation pillar. This approach, if adopted, would require approval only from the EU Council and Parliament, bypassing the need for unanimity among member states.

Alternatively, full ratification of the agreement would require a qualified majority in the Council of Ministers (at least 15 countries representing 65% of the EU population). The political and cooperation pillar would require ratification by all national parliaments, potentially delaying implementation for years.

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France considers big tech regulation in response to US tariffs

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French Economy and Finance Minister Eric Lombard suggested countering US President Donald Trump’s tariffs by more strictly regulating the data usage of US Big Tech companies.

Lombard stated in an interview with Le Journal Du Dimanche, “We could strengthen certain administrative requirements or regulate the use of data.”

Lombard added that another option, without being more specific, could be to “tax certain activities.”

A French government spokesperson said last week that the EU’s retaliation against US tariffs could include “digital services that are not currently taxed.”

This proposal has been strongly rejected by Ireland, which hosts the European headquarters of many major US tech firms.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has vowed to retaliate against Trump’s trade war.

Technology is seen as a likely area for Europe to retaliate. The European Union has a 157 billion euro surplus in goods trade, meaning it exports more than it imports, but a 109 billion euro deficit in services, including digital services.

Major tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta dominate many parts of the market in Europe.

Lombard said on Friday that a trade war with Washington could prevent France from reducing its bloated budget deficit. “Tax revenues will probably fall, and then GDP will fall according to forecasts, which will worsen the deficit even more,” Lombard said in an interview with BFMTV/RMC.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou said on Sunday that Trump’s tariff offensive would reduce France’s GDP by more than 0.5%.

“The risk of job losses, such as economic slowdown and the cessation of investments, is also definitely very high. The consequences of this will be significant: Trump’s policies could cost us more than 0.5% of GDP,” Bayrou said in an interview with Le Parisien.

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Italians protest EU rearmament plan led by Five Star Movement

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Tens of thousands of people participated in a protest march in Rome on Saturday, led by the Five Star Movement (M5S), against the European Union’s proposed rearmament plan. Recent polls indicate that Italians are among the least enthusiastic populations in the EU regarding increasing defense spending.

Organizers claimed that participation exceeded 80,000, with some estimates approaching 100,000.

The rally followed a similar demonstration last month in Strasbourg, where M5S members of the European Parliament (EP) staged a protest in front of the EP building.

M5S leader and former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte strongly criticized both the EU initiative and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s support for it. Conte described the defense package as “madness” and accused Meloni of supporting the plan without a democratic mandate.

M5S was not alone in the streets. Delegations from other opposition parties, including the center-left Democratic Party and the Green-Left Alliance, also participated in the demonstrations.

Their message appears to reflect broader public sentiment. According to a recent poll by Euractiv, Italians are among the least supportive in the EU when it comes to increasing defense spending.

The poll, conducted in March, indicated that Italy (49%) was the least supportive country in increasing spending, compared to other major European economies such as Germany (79%), France (76%), and Spain (76%).

Among Italians who opposed the increase, 14% said that EU member states should reduce their defense investments, while 37% remained against any increase.

When asked whether they would agree to send soldiers to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping operation after the war ends, 45% of participants supported such a move, while 35% opposed it.

Here too, Italians were the least supportive (35%) of deploying European troops to Ukraine, compared to Germany (41%), France (45%), and Spain (64%). Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had distanced herself from the Franco-British initiative earlier this month.

Nevertheless, the demonstration drew criticism. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani questioned the Five Star Movement’s credibility on the issue, pointing out that defense spending increased during Conte’s time in office.

Tajani said, “I don’t understand what M5S wants. They talk about peace, but when Conte was in government, he allocated more money to the military.”

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EU fears influx of Chinese goods amid Trump tariffs

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According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), analysts warn that discounted imports from China will increase the economic dangers to Europe from Donald Trump’s tariffs, prompting Brussels to prepare measures to protect itself from a wave of cheap goods from Asia.

The direct impact of the US President’s 20% tax on EU products has triggered fears about the outlook for bloc manufacturers, who are already struggling due to US taxes on automobiles and steel.

However, the severity of the tariffs Trump has imposed on economies such as China and Vietnam means that Brussels is on alert against the possibility of Asian-origin products such as electrical goods and machine tools being directed to its own markets.

Officials said the European Commission is preparing new emergency tariffs to respond to this and is increasing surveillance of import flows.

“The sudden trade shock to Asia will likely spill over to Europe as well,” said Robin Winkler, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist for Germany.

Chinese manufacturers will try to sell more of their products in Europe and elsewhere because they face “a tough tariff wall in the US.”

A senior EU diplomat said, “We will have to take protection measures for more of our sectors. We are very concerned that this will be another point of tension with China. I don’t think they will change their models of exporting excess capacity.”

The diplomat added that the EU already applies tariffs of up to 35% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and Brussels may have to apply “much higher” tariffs on other products.

The EU is among the economies subject to a higher tax than the 10% basic tariff that the White House applies to all partners except Canada and Mexico, but China has been hit even harder.

While some commentators have noted that the tariffs could bring the EU and China closer together, Brussels has been on edge for months over the risk that Chinese manufacturers will try to increase their market share through discounts in the face of US obstacles.

Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that high taxes on Asian countries could lead these countries to direct their extra capacity to Europe, which could have “major consequences” for continental industries.

The EU had to struggle with similar pressures during Trump’s first term. Following Trump’s implementation of similar measures, Brussels imposed a 25% “safeguard” tariff on steel imports above a quota in 2018. The aim was to prevent exporters such as China from directing their products to the single market due to US barriers.

Officials say they are ready to take action again. A senior Commission official said, “We can close our markets due to an unexpected sudden influx of imports. We have been applying this to steel for some time and we will see if we need it for other sectors as well.”

However, previous experiences show how difficult it is to combat China’s subsidized production. According to the OECD, EU steel production shrank in 2024, while other countries continued to increase their production.

According to the OECD’s latest figures, global excess steel capacity, estimated at 602 million tons in 2024, is expected to reach 721 million tons in 2027, which is more than five times the EU’s steel production.

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