Europe
Europe confronts nuclear future: French umbrella or German bomb?

Amid concerns that the US may withdraw from the continent, a debate has begun in Europe over France’s nuclear umbrella and the possibility of Germany producing its own nuclear bomb.
French President Emmanuel Macron is pursuing a proposal to bring other European countries, including Germany, under a “nuclear umbrella” based on French nuclear bombs, modeled after the US system.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced today during the signing of a France-Poland cooperation agreement that “serious talks” on this matter are already underway. Macron announced that similar discussions will be held with other countries.
Efforts to find an alternative to US nuclear weapons are also ongoing in Berlin, and these efforts have intensified since Chancellor Friedrich Merz raised the possibility of talks with Paris and London on February 21.
Leading German media outlets have also recently raised the issue of arming Germany with its own “German bomb,” which would violate the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Two Plus Four Treaty. AfD politicians support this idea.
However, the ruling parties in Berlin are currently pushing for a “European solution.” It remains unclear how Berlin’s participation in decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons would be ensured.
German media calls for ‘breaking old chains’
The debate over maintaining the current US nuclear umbrella over Europe or replacing it with a separate European nuclear umbrella first began last November during the US presidential elections, then reignited on January 20 with the inauguration of President Donald Trump.
From time to time, calls are made for Germany to act alone and acquire nuclear weapons. For example, an influential article published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) argued that there were “good reasons” why the Two Plus Four Treaty is “no longer valid,” given that it did not permit the Federal Republic of Germany to possess nuclear weapons, and that Germany should “break old chains.”
Around the same time, public opinion polls were published showing that while nuclear armament for the Federal Republic had not yet gained majority support, it was backed by a growing segment of the population.
German media, recalling that the production of nuclear bombs is also being discussed in other countries like South Korea and Poland, emphasized that Berlin possesses sufficient uranium enrichment technology to produce nuclear weapons.
AfD support for ‘German bomb’
More influential politicians have not yet joined the call for a German bomb. Karl-Heinz Kamp, former president of the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS) and currently working for the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), recently stated that the Federal Republic of Germany has “bindingly renounced” the option of “developing its own nuclear weapons,” which is being discussed in the media.
Although Kamp argues that there is currently no politically serious voice in Berlin seeking to change this, explicit calls for the German bomb are now coming from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
For example, in March, Rüdiger Lucassen, the AfD’s defense policy spokesperson in the Bundestag, said, “Germany needs its own nuclear weapons.”
The AfD member, who wants Berlin to “acquire its own nuclear deterrence capability,” stated that this should be done “within the framework of Europe’s strategic autonomy.”
This demand was echoed by Sergeant Hannes Gnauck, an AfD Member of Parliament and a member of his party’s defense working group. Gnauck said, “Germany needs its own nuclear protection shield.”
European option in practice, German bomb in emergencies
Some time ago, Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin, proposed a different approach.
Benner advised that “in emergencies, the basic scientific and technological capacities should be maintained to pursue a German nuclear bomb project,” but that in political practice, a “European option” should be sought.
Kamp is also insistent on this point. He notes that the Trinity House Treaty, signed between the UK and Germany in October 2024, provides for bilateral “dialogue on nuclear issues.”
French President Emmanuel Macron had also advocated for dialogue on the use of the Force de Frappe (deterrent force) to create a nuclear umbrella over the EU “at an early stage.”
Kamp now suggests that Germany could contribute to the “significant costs of France’s and Britain’s nuclear capabilities.” This would, of course, require establishing a “direct link between the nuclear weapon capabilities of both countries and the security of Germany and Europe,” and regulating this with “legally binding bilateral treaties.”
According to Kamp, this would also give Berlin direct influence over French and British nuclear weapons.
Joint nuclear war maneuvers
In recent days, Macron has given new impetus to the plan to bring EU countries under the protection of French or Franco-British nuclear weapons.
Macron has long supported this plan, arguing that French national interests, protected by French nuclear weapons, have now acquired a “European dimension.”
Paris noted with interest Merz’s statement on February 21 that “Europe may need to become more independent from the US in nuclear terms.” Merz had said he wanted to negotiate this issue with Paris and London.
Visiting Portugal at the end of February, Macron reaffirmed the “European dimension” of France’s core interests, which are central to the expansion of the nuclear umbrella.
Experts quickly advanced the public debate. For example, in early March, it was said that it would take years to produce enough new nuclear warheads to deploy nuclear weapons in other European countries according to the US nuclear sharing model.
However, it is pointed out that joint nuclear war maneuvers, for example, could be carried out in the short term.
French nuclear deterrence could be extended to Poland
The plan already appears to be gaining traction. France and Poland have signed a friendship and cooperation agreement (Traité de Nancy) that provides for closer arms and military cooperation and includes a mutual assistance clause.
This agreement is considered the counterpart to the Traités de Londres signed with the United Kingdom in 2010, the Traité d’Aix-la-Chapelle signed with Germany in 2019, the Traité du Quirinal signed with Italy in 2021, and the Traité de Barcelone signed with Spain in 2023.
The mutual assistance clause allows for discussion of extending France’s nuclear deterrence to Poland. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed on Friday, his government is currently conducting “serious talks” with Paris on this matter.
In an interview on Tuesday, Macron reiterated that he wants to discuss participation in France’s nuclear deterrence with “all partners who wish to do so,” and said he would intensify talks in the coming weeks and months.
Macron added that there are three conditions for his country: France will not pay for the security of others; it will not deploy nuclear weapons it needs for itself; and the decision to use the French nuclear bomb will belong solely to the President of France.
Currently, it seems unlikely that Berlin would agree to extend France’s nuclear umbrella to Germany under the condition that it has no say in any decision regarding its use.
On the other hand, the joint financing voiced by Kamp could provide a certain degree of joint decision-making.
Europe
France bans Israeli arms manufacturers from Paris Air Show

France has banned four Israeli arms manufacturers from the Paris Air Show, escalating diplomatic tensions over the Gaza conflict and leading to accusations of discrimination.
This decision marks the latest sign of escalating tensions between the two countries over Israel’s occupation and blockade of Gaza.
The booths of Elbit Systems, Rafael, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), and Uvision were blocked off with black barriers on Monday after they refused to comply with the French government’s directive not to display offensive weapons.
In a statement, the Israeli Ministry of Defense declared, “This outrageous and unprecedented decision is the product of political and commercial concerns,” accusing France of trying to remove “weapons that are competitors to French industry” from the show.
“This decision was made at a time when Israel is fighting a necessary and just war to eliminate the nuclear and ballistic threat that endangers the Middle East, Europe, and the entire world,” the statement continued.
Diplomatic relations between Israel and France have deteriorated in recent months as French President Emmanuel Macron has intensified his criticism of the ongoing war in Gaza.
Macron is also spearheading an international initiative for the recognition of a Palestinian state, a move that Israel’s right-wing government is determined to block. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has condemned this initiative.
On the other hand, Macron has supported Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran’s nuclear threat, endorsing its actions against Iran.
According to French officials, the French government repeatedly communicated the ground rules to Israel over the past few weeks. Four of the nine Israeli companies participating in the Paris Air Show complied with the order not to display offensive weapons, and their booths remained open. The Israeli Ministry of Defense’s booths were also open on Monday.
A French official stated that the Israeli companies, which design and manufacture everything from unmanned aerial vehicles and air defense systems to missiles and aircraft, would be allowed to reopen their exhibits if they made the required changes.
IAI’s CEO, Boaz Levy, said the company tried to negotiate with the organizers but found its booth “closed off by black walls built overnight” on Monday morning.
“This kind of behavior is unacceptable and discriminates against us as Israelis and Jews, as all other participants in this air show were not subjected to these restrictions,” Levy added.
This is not the first time France and Israel have clashed over aviation and defense exhibitions since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023. After the French government decided that Israeli companies should not exhibit offensive weapons, dozens of Israeli firms were excluded from the Eurosatory exhibition in June 2024 and the Euronaval exhibition in November 2024.
The air show’s organizers announced that discussions are ongoing with various parties to “find a suitable solution to the situation.”
SIAE, a subsidiary of the French Aerospace Industries Association which organizes the event, stated that it had complied with “the instruction of the relevant French authorities to remove certain equipment exhibited at the Israeli stands” before the event.
SIAE added that the companies in question “still received permission to exhibit at the show.”
Europe
European gas prices rise amid fears of an escalating Middle East conflict

European natural gas prices have risen as traders prepare for the possibility of an escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the associated risks to global energy supply.
According to a report from Bloomberg, benchmark futures, which followed a volatile course in the previous session, increased by as much as 1.8%. US President Donald Trump demanded the evacuation of Tehran and later said that his early departure from the G7 summit in Canada had “nothing to do” with ceasefire efforts between Israel and Iran.
Although Europe appears to be in a good position regarding supply for now, its heavy dependence on the global flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) makes prices susceptible to sharp movements if geopolitical developments pose a risk to international energy trade. The continent will need more fuel in the coming months to replenish its natural gas storage, which fell to a three-year low this winter.
The most significant threat comes from the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz if the war escalates, thereby blocking shipments from Qatar, the largest LNG exporter. As the strait is also a vital route for oil shipments from the region, traders are closely monitoring tanker movements.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Frederik Witzemann, the impact of the conflict on international gas markets has been limited so far. Modest imports by China have made more fuel available for other buyers, such as Egypt, which rushed to find alternative suppliers after Israel cut off its flows.
Additionally, traders are following the European Union’s plans to phase out its dependence on Russian pipeline gas and LNG supplies by the end of 2027. This supply currently accounts for about 13% of the region’s imports. On Tuesday, the European Commission will announce its detailed proposals regarding the ban on these flows.
The Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s benchmark natural gas price, rose by 0.6% to €38.12 per megawatt-hour at 8:52 AM in Amsterdam.
Europe
Germany holds first national veterans’ day since World War II

On Sunday, June 15, Germany held its first celebration for military veterans since the Second World War.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius joined current and former soldiers and members of the public for events across the country, including a “veterans’ village” constructed in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin.
This marks a historic shift in a country where anything that could be seen as a “display of militarism” has been considered taboo for decades.
The new commemoration, established by a parliamentary resolution passed last year, is designed to “express gratitude, appreciation, and respect” for the Bundeswehr, Germany’s federal army.
The German Bundestag emphasized that the day also aims to deepen the bond between the military and the German people. At the ceremony in Berlin, Bundestag President Julia Klöckner of the CDU described the Bundeswehr as a “parliamentary army,” stating that this places a special responsibility on lawmakers.
She also acknowledged the demanding and often stressful nature of military service, stressing the need to provide soldiers with appropriate support.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz also stated on the social media platform X, “The Bundeswehr is an integral part of our society,” adding that those who serve or have served in the military deserve widespread appreciation, respect, and recognition.
“There won’t be tanks and fighter jets. We’re not there yet. But we are taking a really good first step,” Lieutenant Colonel Michael Krause, head of the newly established national veterans’ office, told the Financial Times (FT), comparing it to major military events in other countries.
Germany is channeling money and resources into its armed forces in response to NATO’s concerns about “Russian aggression.” The new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has pledged to make Germany’s military the “strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Sarah Brockmeier-Large from the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt said that the fact politicians finally agreed to hold a veterans’ day is “a symbol of a growing appreciation in German society that we need functioning armed forces and that soldiers provide a vital public service.”
Berlin’s role in two world wars created a deep-seated skepticism toward military power after 1945, particularly in West Germany, leading to the emergence of a strong pacifist movement.
For decades, the term “veteran” was mostly associated with those who fought in Adolf Hitler’s Wehrmacht, not with those who served in the Bundeswehr, which was founded in 1955 and placed under strict parliamentary control.
“We couldn’t be proud of our old wars. That’s why in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, there was no veteran culture in the German Bundeswehr,” said Patrick Sensburg, president of the German reservists’ association.
During the Cold War, when Germany was divided, the Bundeswehr only participated in operations outside NATO territory to assist with natural disasters.
After “reunification” in 1990, the National People’s Army of the German Democratic Republic was disbanded, and a small number of its soldiers joined the Bundeswehr.
The newly unified army soon began participating in combat operations abroad. German warplanes helped bomb the former Yugoslavia during the NATO-led Kosovo mission in 1999.
But the most significant event for the veterans’ movement was the participation of 93,000 German soldiers in the US-led war in Afghanistan over nearly 20 years. Initially declared a German peacekeeping mission, it evolved into a combat operation as Bundeswehr troops fought the Taliban.
A total of 59 German soldiers were killed in the conflict, which also claimed the lives of about 3,000 American and allied soldiers and more than 100,000 Afghan civilians.
Those who served in Afghanistan, including many who returned home with physical and psychological wounds, initiated a grassroots movement to establish a veterans’ day, inspired by events like Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, Armed Forces Day in Great Britain, or Veterans Day in the US.
In 2012, an attempt by then-defense minister Thomas de Maizière to introduce the idea failed due to widespread political opposition.
“I think it was too early,” said military historian Sönke Neitzel, noting that at the time, Germany’s combat operations in Afghanistan were still seen as something that “should never have happened.”
But the pressure from former soldiers and the associations established to care for them continued.
Last year, German lawmakers approved a new plan to celebrate veterans “publicly and visibly” every year on June 15. Defense Minister Pistorius called it a “strong, important, and, yes, overdue sign of appreciation and gratitude.”
There is still opposition to the idea. Die Linke (The Left Party), which received 9% of the vote in the February parliamentary elections, organized an event in Berlin on Sunday titled, “We will not celebrate your wars.”
The party argued that the new veterans’ day was designed to “make war acceptable” and create “cannon fodder” for the German armed forces, at a time when military leaders are warning they need to recruit tens of thousands of additional soldiers in the coming years.
In the eastern states, formerly part of the German Democratic Republic, there is widespread opposition to Germany being one of Ukraine’s largest arms suppliers, partly due to the region’s historical ties with Russia.
But Katja Hoyer, a historian and author of the book Beyond the Wall: East Germany 1949-1990, argued that East Germans, who are disproportionately represented in the lower ranks of the Bundeswehr, still show broad support for the military and those who have served in it.
“The idea of rearming and strengthening the Bundeswehr is not a problem for many East Germans. There is a difference between the attitude towards the military in general and the attitude towards this conflict [in Ukraine],” she said.
The establishment of an annual event has been welcomed by veterans, although some remain cautious.
Thorsten Gärtner, a senior sergeant in the Bundeswehr who served five tours in Afghanistan and suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder, said he still does not always feel comfortable wearing his uniform on public transport in Berlin.
“I hope that one day it will be like in other countries, like the US, with an ID card for veterans and a 10% discount everywhere. I doubt that will happen. It’s not yet accepted. It will take a very long time,” Gärtner said.
Meanwhile, Prince Harry of the United Kingdom also released a video message in German to commemorate Germany’s first Veterans’ Day.
In his message, the Duke of Sussex wore various ceremonial medals, including the Afghanistan Campaign Medal, the Golden Jubilee Medal, the Diamond Jubilee Medal, and the Platinum Jubilee Medal.
Beginning his message in fluent German, the prince greeted viewers with “Guten Tag Deutschland” (Good Day Germany) before switching to English.
Prince Harry claimed it was a “great honor” to be tasked with delivering a message to the Germans on their inaugural Veterans’ Day. He said, “The warmth, enthusiasm, and unwavering support shown by the German people to our global community of wounded soldiers was truly impressive. You have certainly delivered on your promise to create a home of respect.”
Prince Harry praised the strength and resilience of veterans, describing them as “living testaments to resilience and moral courage.”
“Today, let us together renew our commitment to serve one another, to protect the freedoms that define who we are, for the enduring promise of peace, dignity, and democracy,” he added.
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