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European leaders form “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine without US

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s fiasco-ending US visit prompted European countries to gather in London to continue support for Kyiv.

The summit, hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, focused on forming a “coalition of the willing” without US involvement. EU’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas stated that “the free world needs a new leader” and Europeans must take up this challenge.

Sunday’s London summit, bringing together leaders from 18 countries including France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Canada, and Turkey, appears to have made progress for the first time in weeks.

Starmer announced that several countries expressed willingness to join a “coalition of the willing” to provide security guarantees to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

Britain and France will lead efforts with Ukraine to prepare a peace plan to present to US President Donald Trump.

Britain willing to deploy troops; Meloni wants to bridge US-Europe divide

In his post-talks statement to journalists, Starmer signaled potential troop deployment to Ukraine, saying, “The United Kingdom is ready to support this with others on land with boots and in the air with planes.”

Following the summit, Starmer announced that Europe would step in as a “mediator” for Volodymyr Zelenskyy after his argument with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, and would “try to stop the conflicts.”

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also expressed readiness to use her good relationship with Trump as a “bridge builder.”

In her statement, Meloni called for an urgent meeting “to speak frankly about how we will tackle today’s great challenges, starting with Ukraine, which we have defended together in recent years.”

Germany, Spain and Poland hesitant about sending troops

Although Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was among the first to support Zelenskyy, Warsaw has yet to signal any significant initiative regarding Ukraine.

Germany, Spain, and Poland are among European countries showing hesitation about sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.

European Council President António Costa described Sunday’s consultations as “useful and important” ahead of the March 6 EU summit, where he said leaders must be “ready to make decisions.”

It remains debatable whether all 27 EU member states can bridge potential internal divisions with Hungary and Slovakia.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced Sunday that she would present a “comprehensive plan” on defense at the March 6 summit, though criticism has mounted over why preparation has taken so long, especially given the urgency.

Starmer and Rutte asked Zelenskyy to repair relations with Trump

Despite promises of support for Ukraine, some European leaders signaled to Kyiv that they would prefer to see relationships with Washington repaired rather than proceeding entirely without the US.

An EU official stated after the talks, “There was broad consensus on the importance of continuing to work closely with the US in the NATO context and strong agreement that future European contributions toward additional security guarantees should be developed hand in hand with the US.”

Indeed, both Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had previously tried to convince Zelenskyy to find a way to repair relations with the US administration, despite Trump clearly stating he didn’t want Kyiv to continue fighting.

However, repairing ties between Trump and Zelenskyy won’t be easy. While European allies lined up to express support for the leader of the war-damaged country, the US clearly stated it wants a public apology.

Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Fox News, “For President Trump to be willing to re-engage on this issue, there will need to be a rebuilding of interest in good faith negotiations.”

Starmer told journalists he had spoken with Trump before the London summit to coordinate proposals. Starmer also hasn’t abandoned plans to convince Washington to support European troops deploying to secure a ceasefire.

Starmer said Europe needs to “lift the heavy burden” but “this effort needs to have strong US support.”

Details of the British-French plan

New details of the European peace plan emerged after French President Emmanuel Macron told Le Figaro that he and Starmer were proposing a month-long ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine “in the air, at sea, and on energy infrastructure.”

Macron added that this approach would have the advantage of verifying Russia’s intentions and would be easier than monitoring a ceasefire across the entire front line, saying, “In a ceasefire situation, it will be very difficult to verify compliance at the front.”

The British prime minister’s office declined to comment, but Starmer said Britain could deploy troops if a ceasefire were accepted. A month-long ceasefire covering air, sea, and infrastructure areas is suggested to “help build trust on both sides.”

The second key piece of the European plan involves Zelenskyy giving Washington an economic stake in the peace agreement by signing a deal that would give the US a share of revenue from some of Ukraine’s mineral reserves.

Trump wanted Zelenskyy to sign this agreement during his visit to Washington last Friday.

The UK’s Ambassador to Washington, Lord Peter Mandelson, called on Zelenskyy to sign the agreement and urged Ukraine and all European leaders to give “unequivocal support to President Trump’s initiative” to mediate peace.

In his statement to ABC, Mandelson gave another indication of British thinking, saying, “Ukraine should be the first country to commit to a ceasefire and challenge the Russians to follow suit.”

Starmer said, “I feel very strongly that unless progress is made, we will remain in the position we are in. This is not the time for more talk. It’s time to act, take steps, and lead.”

Desperate calls for US “firepower”

Starmer and the British still believe that US military power is essential for a “ceasefire” in Ukraine, despite everything.

The British leader said UK and US teams had discussed how Trump could help secure any peace agreement, but the President had always made it clear that he saw this as a responsibility for European countries.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, leaving the summit, said the discussion was “ongoing” about whether the US would contribute to security guarantees.

France may act as nuclear umbrella

After Trump cut military support to Ukraine, discussions about increasing Europe’s defense capacity intensified.

In his interview with Le Figaro after the meeting, Macron said the EU should provide €200 billion to increase its defense capacity.

Macron also said they should set a target equivalent to 3% to 3.5% of economic output for expenditures.

Macron said, “We will give a mandate to the European Commission to determine our capacity needs for common defense. This major financing will likely reach hundreds of billions of euros.”

The French President also stated he wanted to begin discussions about sharing France’s nuclear umbrella with European neighbors. Macron added, “We have a shield but they don’t. And they can no longer rely on America’s nuclear deterrence. We need a strategic discussion with those who don’t have it; and this will make France stronger.”

In the interview, Macron said truly strengthening European defense “will take five years, ten years” and added, “But that doesn’t matter, because I believe today is a moment of strategic awakening.”

Cotton hands in pockets for Europe’s defense

The broader European Council will meet Thursday to discuss a €20 billion military package for Ukraine and steps to increase defense spending, including relaxing financial rules.

Starmer, Macron, and Meloni all clearly expressed that Europe needs to do more to defend itself, but the path to peace in Ukraine must go through the White House.

In this context, Starmer announced a £1.6 billion British export guarantee for the supply of more than 5,000 air defense missiles to Ukraine, to be produced in Belfast.

According to Bloomberg, the refocus on Europe’s defense strengthened regional currencies against the dollar, along with investors’ expectations that higher spending would boost growth.

The euro rose 0.4% against the dollar, outperforming most major peers, while the Polish zloty, Romanian leu, and Scandinavian currencies also gained.

European defense stocks showed increases in early trading on Tradegate Monday compared to Friday’s main stock exchange closings: BAE Systems up 23%, Rheinmetall 19%, Thales 17%, Saab 17%, Dassault Aviation 16%, Rolls-Royce 13%, and Leonardo 12%.

Europe

Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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