Connect with us

AMERICA

Fear of “if Biden loses, Trump comes” in the West

Published

on

Could the potential loss of US President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election bolster Russia’s negotiating stance? According to four senior US and European officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian leader Putin is strategizing his Ukrainian war plans with an eye on the 2024 elections. According to US and EU officials, Moscow believes that Biden’s departure from office could strengthen its position in Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine is intensifying in various hot spots, from Donbass in eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea and the coast of Odessa, making it challenging to forecast the immediate future of the war. Nonetheless, in the medium term, the trajectory of events can be somewhat predicted.

Currently, it appears unlikely that either side will achieve a definitive military victory.

During this stage of the war, Russia is concentrating on depleting Ukraine’s resources, while the Ukrainian government is actively seeking to enhance its inventory with advanced weapon systems, notably F-16 fighter jets.

While Russia is solidifying its position and has not shown significant vulnerability on the front line, even in the face of military rebellions like Wagner’s, the future military aid and training processes for the Ukrainian army, as well as the duration of the war for Ukraine, appear to be contingent on external developments beyond Kyiv’s control.

US and European officials have already initiated discussions regarding the implications of the 2024 presidential elections in light of the ongoing context. According to four US and EU officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian President Vladimir Putin has factored the 2024 presidential elections into his strategic considerations for the Ukrainian conflict.

“Trump will help Putin”

An anonymous US official suggests that Putin is trying to “hold out” until the 2024 election. According to the same source, Putin “knows that Trump will help him. So do the Ukrainians and our European partners.”

Former US President Donald Trump has consistently asserted in his statements on Ukraine that he could swiftly resolve the conflict in a day or two. Moreover, numerous Republicans in the US Senate and House of Representatives have been critical of and have questioned the provision of aid to Ukraine throughout the duration of the war.

According to a recent CNN International poll, a majority of Americans are opposed to providing further aid to Ukraine. Specifically, 71 percent of Republicans believe that Congress should not authorize new funding, and 59 percent of Republicans are of the opinion that the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine. On the other hand, the sentiments among Democrats differ significantly, with 62 percent expressing support for providing additional funding to Ukraine, and 61 percent believing that the US should do more to aid the country.

Donald Trump’s extremely heavy dossier, in which he is accused of interfering in the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, makes sense in this context.

2023 summer front

During this summer, two significant developments had an impact on the conflict in Ukraine. The first was the NATO Summit, and the second was Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Corridor agreement. Ukraine aimed to attend the summit with a military victory, but NATO commanders urged them to launch an offensive they were not fully prepared for. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian forces were unable to break through the multi-layered defense lines established by Russia, which had learned from past mistakes of the last year. Additionally, there was a rebellion by the Wagner Group during the offensive, but it did not lead to a favorable outcome for Ukraine.

When the offensive did not yield the desired results, the special forces attack on the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes against Moscow became prominent in Ukraine’s military actions.

In response to the situation before and after the NATO summit, Russia withdrew from the Grain Corridor. It started to strike Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea coasts again.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also visited the conflict zone in Ukraine. He inspected the command center of the Central Troop Group and received reports from the commanders of the troops on the current situation and performance.

The US administration is calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Russia, which seems to have recovered on the front line compared to a year ago.

According to the US, Russia is using food as a weapon and striking ports in Ukraine. A document condemning this has been submitted by the US to the UN Security Council. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also called on Security Council members to say “enough” to Moscow.

Moscow, for its part, says it will return to the Grain Corridor Agreement only after the compromise text includes steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products. According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian grain mainly goes to rich countries, not poor ones.

A reminder: Jubilation for Trump in Damascus in 2016

Beyond the daily and weekly developments, the 2024 elections will redefine the attitude of both Moscow and the Western bloc towards the Ukrainian war. In 2016, it is worth remembering why the Damascus regime cheered when Trump won the presidency. We do not know what would have happened in Syria, the hot conflict zone of that period, if Hilary Clinton, who laughed at the cameras during a program about Gaddafi, had won. However, trying to evaluate the possible effects of the US elections in 2024 on the Ukraine crisis by looking at the effects of the previous elections on Syria is also quite possible and perhaps the subject of a separate article.

AMERICA

US announces new tariffs on China

Published

on

US President Joe Biden has slapped new tariffs on cheap electric vehicles, batteries, solar equipment and other products imported from China.

“President Biden’s economic plan supports investment and creates good jobs in key sectors vital to America’s economic future and national security,” the White House said in a statement.

Claiming that China’s “unfair trade practices” in technology transfer, intellectual property and innovation threaten American companies and workers, Washington said Beijing was also flooding global markets with “artificially low-priced exports”.

In this context, the White House announced that Joe Biden had directed the US Trade Representative to increase tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act in order to “protect American workers and businesses” in “response to China’s unfair trade practices” and to “remedy the resulting injury”.

Arguing that American workers and businesses can outperform anyone else “as long as there is fair competition”, the White House claimed that the Chinese government has long resorted to “unfair, non-market practices”.

“China’s forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft have created unacceptable risks to America’s supply chains and economic security by allowing it to control 70, 80 and even 90 per cent of global production of critical inputs needed for our technologies, infrastructure, energy and health care,” the statement said.

It also noted that these “non-market policies and practices” have contributed to China’s growing overcapacity and export surges that “threaten to significantly harm” American workers, businesses and communities.

“The actions taken today against China’s unfair trade practices are carefully targeted at strategic sectors where the United States, under President Biden, has made historic investments to create and sustain good-paying jobs, unlike recent Republican proposals in Congress that would threaten jobs and raise costs across all sectors,” the Biden administration said, also criticising Republican proposals.

The new tariffs announced by the White House are as follows:

– From 25 per cent to 100 per cent in 2024 for electric vehicles;

– Tariffs on lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles from 7.5 per cent to 25 per cent in 2024;

– For semiconductors, from 25 per cent to 50 per cent by 2025;

– For solar cells from 25% to 50% in 2024;

– 0% to 50% in 2024 for certain medical products such as syringes and needles;

– Tariffs on certain steel and aluminium products from 0-7.5% to 25% in 2024.

National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard told reporters that they were designed to ensure that US green technology and manufacturing industries “are not undermined by a flood of unfairly low-priced exports from China in areas such as electric vehicle batteries, critical medical devices, steel and aluminium semiconductors, and solar energy”.

According to Axios, Biden administration officials said they do not know how or if Beijing will retaliate, but they expect Beijing to speak publicly and raise its voice.

“I hope we don’t see a significant response from China, but that’s always a possibility,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Bloomberg.

White House officials argue that the tariffs will not increase US inflation because the amount of goods they target is too small.

Continue Reading

AMERICA

Pro-Trump think tank outlines ‘America First’ foreign policy

Published

on

A think tank working to lay the groundwork for a second Trump administration if former US President Donald Trump wins again in November has published a new book, An America First Approach to U.S. National Security, which aims to detail the so-called “America First” national security policy.

The book was written by former Trump advisers, including Robert Lighthizer, who served as US Trade Representative, Michael Waltz, a Florida Republican and former Green Beret, and Fred Fleitz, who served as Trump’s chief of staff on the National Security Council.

All of these names are rumoured to be in the running for senior positions if Trump wins the presidential election in November.

Think tanks working to ‘help Trump avoid the mistakes of 2016’

The book was produced by the think tank America First Policy Institute (AFPI). According to the Associated Press, the group, like “Project 2025” by another pro-Trump think tank, the Heritage Foundation, is trying to help Trump avoid the mistakes of 2016, when he entered the White House largely unprepared.

It includes proposals such as tying future military aid to Ukraine to its participation in peace talks with Russia, banning Chinese citizens from buying property within 50 miles of US government buildings, and staffing the national security sector with Donald Trump’s aides.

The institute is also working on dozens of draft executive orders and developing a training programme for future political appointees. The Heritage Foundation, on the other hand, is compiling a comprehensive personnel database and preparing its own policy guidelines.

The book’s authors are in contact with Trump

Both groups stress their independence from the Trump campaign and insist that the only policies Trump supports are those expressed by the candidate himself.

But Fred Fleitz, the book’s editor, said he and retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who served for a time as Trump’s deputy national security adviser and wrote parts of the book, are in frequent contact with the former president, asking for feedback and discussing issues such as Ukraine at length.”We hope these are things he’s thinking about. We don’t speak for him, but I think he would approve,” said Fleitz, who previously served as chief of staff to the National Security Council.

Fleitz said he hoped the book would be an “easy-to-use” guide that “provides an intellectual foundation for an America First approach” to national security.

Kellogg said: “This is grand strategy. You don’t start with policies. You start with strategies. And that’s what we’ve done,” he added.

Criticism of ‘globalist’ strategies

The book characterises the current trajectory of US national security as a failure, with the foreign policy establishment accused of adopting an interventionist and ‘globalist’ approach at the expense of America’s ‘national interest’.

The book offers some premises for how a future Trump administration might approach foreign policy issues such as the war in Ukraine.

Trump has said that, if elected, he would resolve the issue before Inauguration Day in January.

The book’s chapter on the war discusses how the conflict developed rather than how to end it. But it does say that the US should make future military aid conditional on Ukraine’s participation in peace talks with Russia.

Continue arming Ukraine after ‘peace’ is established

Predicting that the Ukrainian military will lose ground over time, the report recommends that the US “should not continue to send weapons into a stalemate that Ukraine will ultimately find difficult to win”.

In the event of a peace agreement, however, the US would continue to arm Ukraine as a deterrent against Russia.

The authors propose a framework in which Ukraine “would not be asked to give up its goal of regaining all of its territory” but would accept diplomacy “with the understanding that this would require a diplomatic breakthrough in the future and would probably not happen before (Russian President Vladimir) Putin leaves office”.

The book also acknowledges that Ukrainians “will find it difficult to accept a negotiated peace that does not return all of their territory or, at least for the time being, does not hold Russia accountable for the carnage it has caused in Ukraine”.

Nevertheless, the authors declare their agreement with Donald Trump’s words on CNN in 2023: “I want everybody to stop dying” and that “this is a good first step”.

An architecture for Ukraine ‘focused on bilateral security defence’

The book blames President Joe Biden for the war and repeats Trump’s claim that “Putin would never have invaded Ukraine” if he had been in office.

The book’s main argument in defence of this claim is that Putin “sees Trump as strong and decisive”.

Looking to the future, the book suggests that Putin could be persuaded to join peace talks if Biden and other NATO leaders offered to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for an extended period.

Instead, it suggests that the US should establish “a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defence, focusing on bilateral security defence”.

It also calls for a tax on Russian energy sales to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.

According to the book, the prolongation of the war in Ukraine risks deepening the alliance between Russia, China, Iran and the Democratic Republic of Korea, which the think tank calls a new “anti-American axis”.

China ‘most urgent national security threat2

“As serious as the war in Ukraine is, it is not the greatest national security threat to our country. That threat is China,” the authors write.

The book describes China as the country’s “most pressing national security threat”, eager to replace the United States as the world’s leading power. The authors propose a “hawkish policy”, building on the approaches of both the Trump years and the Biden administration, to make Beijing’s policies “largely irrelevant to American life”.

By elevating economic concerns about China above national security concerns, the book proposes a reciprocal approach that would deny Beijing access to US markets in the same way that American companies are blocked in China.

It also recommends more rigorous vetting of US adversaries, particularly Chinese-owned cyber and technology companies, to ensure they are not collecting sensitive information.

It also recommends that Chinese citizens be prohibited from buying property within a 50-mile (80 km) radius of any US government property.

AFPI is working with US states to introduce legislation to ban foreign ownership of farmland. So far, such legislation has been passed in Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, Montana, North and South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Utah.

He is also calling for visa restrictions on Chinese students wishing to study in the US and a ban on TikTok and other Chinese apps over privacy concerns.

However, Trump has said he opposes legislation that would force the sale of TikTok or block its access to the US. Last week, Trump stepped up his criticism of Biden over his proposal to ban the social media app TikTok, claiming that the current president supported the ban to “help his friends on Facebook get richer and more dominant”.

US investment strengthens People’s Liberation Army

“Under America First, the United States must focus its military power on deterring China’s peer threat, using the full spectrum of political, economic and military power,” Waltz writes in a chapter of the book.

The book argues that decades of US efforts to transform China into a responsible partner on the global stage have been a “self-defeating policy”.

The authors argue that American investment in China has provided liquidity for Beijing’s high-tech projects, which have strengthened the People’s Liberation Army by reinforcing military-civilian fusion.

Continuation of tariffs against China

The book called for the continuation of all tariffs imposed on China during the Trump administration, while urging the US to develop supply chains “based solely on American workers, our allies, or our friendly neighbours in the Americas”.

They thanked the Biden administration for restricting US investment in sensitive Chinese sectors such as artificial intelligence, and called for further measures to sever American investment ties with organisations associated with the Chinese Communist Party.

Taiwan’s ‘defence’ prioritised, partnership with Japan critical

While the US is debating how to respond to a possible Chinese intervention in Taiwan, the authors of the book also address this issue.

The book clearly states that “the island must be defended”. The authors argue that protecting Taiwan’s security is in both the economic and national security interests of the United States.

But the authors insist that the US should demand more from its allies.

“If allied countries were allowed to contribute in their own way, they could significantly reduce the strategic burden on the United States,” the book says.

The US-Japan alliance “sets the standard” for a successful “America First” foreign policy, the authors write, praising Tokyo’s decision to increase defence spending and acquire stand-off missiles.

As for the Quad, an informal four-way partnership between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, the authors encourage “closer military integration” to counter the rise of China.

Call for more military support for Israel

Ellie Cohanim, Trump’s former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for ‘Monitoring and Combating Anti-Semitism’, explained what the ‘America First’ strategy means for the Israeli military.

Cohanim wrote that the US should send Israel a fleet of 25 Lockheed Martin F-35s, a Boeing F-15 EX and an Apache E attack helicopter.

Cohanim wrote that the US should give Israel some of the billions of dollars in military funding in Israeli currency so that Israel can spend it at home, and that Washington should force Arab states to accept Israel’s suspension of political negotiations with the Palestinians and subject the Palestinian people to “indefinite forced de-radicalisation”.

According to Cohanim, “peace in the Middle East will only be achieved through the reassertion of American power”.

Continue Reading

AMERICA

Biden preparing tariffs on Chinese EVs and strategic sectors

Published

on

According to Bloomberg, the administration of US President Joe Biden is preparing to announce a sweeping decision on tariffs against China next week that is expected to target key strategic sectors and reject the across-the-board increases sought by Donald Trump, citing people familiar with the matter.

The decision is the result of a review of the Section 301 tariffs, which were first introduced under Trump in 2018. The new tariffs will focus on sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar cells, while existing taxes will largely remain in place.

While the yuan weakened on the news, the CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks rebounded after falling 0.6% in early trading.

Biden had also called for tariff increases on steel and aluminium

An announcement is expected on Tuesday, sources said.

Although the decision is likely to be delayed, it will still be one of the biggest moves in the US economic competition with China.

The new tariffs follow Biden’s call last month to increase tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium, and the formal launch of a new investigation into China’s shipbuilding sector.

The move comes after Biden last month proposed new 25% tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium as part of a series of steps to shore up the American steel industry and wink at workers in an election year.

The promise is seen as largely symbolic as China currently exports very little of either metal to the US.

Chinese foreign ministry responds and calls for tariffs to be lifted

China’s Foreign Ministry said the tariffs imposed by the previous US administration had “seriously disrupted” economic and trade exchanges between the two countries.

The ministry called on Washington to lift the restrictions, adding that China would take necessary measures to defend its rights and interests.

“The US has continued to politicise economic and trade issues instead of correcting its mistakes,” ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a regular briefing on Friday. Raising tariffs further is adding insult to injury,” Lin Jian said.

New tariffs will not take effect immediately

According to Bloomberg, the tariffs will not have an immediate impact on Chinese companies because the world’s leading EV manufacturers are staying away from the US market because of the tariffs.

Solar companies, on the other hand, mostly export to the US from third countries to avoid restrictions, and US companies also want higher tariffs on this trade.

China factor in the US election

Biden and Trump are vying to appear tough on China as they head into a November election rematch, Bloomberg reported.

Last month, Biden signed a bill that started the countdown for video-sharing platform TikTok to spin off from its Chinese parent ByteDance or leave the US market.

If re-elected, Trump has promised to raise tariffs on China across the board, imposing a 60 per cent tax on all goods imported from China.

Many Democrats oppose this approach, saying it would raise prices for US consumers already struggling with inflation.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey