America
Fear of “if Biden loses, Trump comes” in the West
Could the potential loss of US President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election bolster Russia’s negotiating stance? According to four senior US and European officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian leader Putin is strategizing his Ukrainian war plans with an eye on the 2024 elections. According to US and EU officials, Moscow believes that Biden’s departure from office could strengthen its position in Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine is intensifying in various hot spots, from Donbass in eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea and the coast of Odessa, making it challenging to forecast the immediate future of the war. Nonetheless, in the medium term, the trajectory of events can be somewhat predicted.
Currently, it appears unlikely that either side will achieve a definitive military victory.
During this stage of the war, Russia is concentrating on depleting Ukraine’s resources, while the Ukrainian government is actively seeking to enhance its inventory with advanced weapon systems, notably F-16 fighter jets.
While Russia is solidifying its position and has not shown significant vulnerability on the front line, even in the face of military rebellions like Wagner’s, the future military aid and training processes for the Ukrainian army, as well as the duration of the war for Ukraine, appear to be contingent on external developments beyond Kyiv’s control.
US and European officials have already initiated discussions regarding the implications of the 2024 presidential elections in light of the ongoing context. According to four US and EU officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian President Vladimir Putin has factored the 2024 presidential elections into his strategic considerations for the Ukrainian conflict.
“Trump will help Putin”
An anonymous US official suggests that Putin is trying to “hold out” until the 2024 election. According to the same source, Putin “knows that Trump will help him. So do the Ukrainians and our European partners.”
Former US President Donald Trump has consistently asserted in his statements on Ukraine that he could swiftly resolve the conflict in a day or two. Moreover, numerous Republicans in the US Senate and House of Representatives have been critical of and have questioned the provision of aid to Ukraine throughout the duration of the war.
According to a recent CNN International poll, a majority of Americans are opposed to providing further aid to Ukraine. Specifically, 71 percent of Republicans believe that Congress should not authorize new funding, and 59 percent of Republicans are of the opinion that the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine. On the other hand, the sentiments among Democrats differ significantly, with 62 percent expressing support for providing additional funding to Ukraine, and 61 percent believing that the US should do more to aid the country.
Donald Trump’s extremely heavy dossier, in which he is accused of interfering in the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, makes sense in this context.
2023 summer front
During this summer, two significant developments had an impact on the conflict in Ukraine. The first was the NATO Summit, and the second was Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Corridor agreement. Ukraine aimed to attend the summit with a military victory, but NATO commanders urged them to launch an offensive they were not fully prepared for. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian forces were unable to break through the multi-layered defense lines established by Russia, which had learned from past mistakes of the last year. Additionally, there was a rebellion by the Wagner Group during the offensive, but it did not lead to a favorable outcome for Ukraine.
When the offensive did not yield the desired results, the special forces attack on the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes against Moscow became prominent in Ukraine’s military actions.
In response to the situation before and after the NATO summit, Russia withdrew from the Grain Corridor. It started to strike Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea coasts again.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also visited the conflict zone in Ukraine. He inspected the command center of the Central Troop Group and received reports from the commanders of the troops on the current situation and performance.
The US administration is calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Russia, which seems to have recovered on the front line compared to a year ago.
According to the US, Russia is using food as a weapon and striking ports in Ukraine. A document condemning this has been submitted by the US to the UN Security Council. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also called on Security Council members to say “enough” to Moscow.
Moscow, for its part, says it will return to the Grain Corridor Agreement only after the compromise text includes steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products. According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian grain mainly goes to rich countries, not poor ones.
A reminder: Jubilation for Trump in Damascus in 2016
Beyond the daily and weekly developments, the 2024 elections will redefine the attitude of both Moscow and the Western bloc towards the Ukrainian war. In 2016, it is worth remembering why the Damascus regime cheered when Trump won the presidency. We do not know what would have happened in Syria, the hot conflict zone of that period, if Hilary Clinton, who laughed at the cameras during a program about Gaddafi, had won. However, trying to evaluate the possible effects of the US elections in 2024 on the Ukraine crisis by looking at the effects of the previous elections on Syria is also quite possible and perhaps the subject of a separate article.
America
US Senate panel seeks records in Trump-linked crypto investigation
Richard Blumenthal, the ranking Democrat on the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI), has requested documents from cryptocurrency exchange Binance, Tether, and crypto projects linked to President Donald Trump as part of inquiries into potential financial irregularities and conflicts of interest.
The documents were requested to be submitted by 4 January 2027.
Senators warned that they would resort to compulsory measures if the request was refused.
Entities sent document requests include World Liberty Financial and Fight Fight Fight LLC, both linked to President Trump’s family.
Blumenthal began examining the activities of these entities in May 2025 following reports that they may have engaged in transactions with foreigners under federal criminal investigation, attracted investments from foreign governments, and violated public ethics rules.
Notably, in 2026, it emerged that individuals close to the Abu Dhabi royal family had signed an agreement with the Trump family to purchase 49% of the shares in World Liberty Financial for $500 million.
The company, founded in September 2024 by the US President and his sons, launched a token called WLFI.
According to official disclosures, Trump made $800 million from this token alone.
Conversely, crypto analytics firm Nansen calculated, by tracking 1.48 million crypto wallets, that approximately two-thirds of those who invested in the token after its launch in January 2025 incurred losses.
While many retail investors spent several thousand dollars on purchases, the largest investors poured in millions of dollars.
Trump also launched his own memecoin, TRUMP, on 17 January 2025, prior to his inauguration.
Rising 10.6-fold in value within three days, the cryptocurrency’s market capitalisation reached $15 billion at its peak.
However, after those three days, the price entered a downturn, plunging by 97%.
Trump reported in his financial disclosure that he earned $635 million in income from sales of these memecoins.
In July 2026, Blumenthal held public hearings on the family crypto projects from which the President made $1.4 billion.
The losses suffered by TRUMP memecoin investors were also addressed during these hearings.
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance and Tether, which issues the largest stablecoin, USDT, are under scrutiny over their dealings with the Trump administration.
Lawmakers suspected conflicts of interest stemming from the exchange’s collaboration with World Liberty Financial.
Previously, a group of senators had demanded an inquiry into the terms of the presidential pardon granted to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao.
Separately, The New York Times reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) gaining access to American artificial intelligence chips coincided with a $2 billion investment by a UAE entity into Binance using USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial.
While this deal rapidly expanded the volume of tokens in circulation, it enabled Trump’s company to generate revenue from interest on government bonds where USD1 reserves were held.
Trump, for his part, described the report as slander.
America
US credit card debt hits record $1.29 trillion, New York Fed reports
Americans’ credit card debt reached a record $1.29 trillion in the third quarter, according to a new report published by the New York Fed.
Falling behind on credit card payments can trap struggling households in a cycle of fees, credit score downgrades, and increasingly expensive borrowing.
Although delinquency rates across the country have shown improvement, the latest figures indicate that financial distress is concentrated in lower-income communities.
Consumer credit card balances rose by $22 billion in the third quarter, representing an increase of 1.7%. This figure is $52 billion higher than it was a year earlier.
The figures are not adjusted for inflation, which may mean that part of the increase reflects rising prices rather than more borrowing in real terms.
Total household debt, which includes mortgages, student loans, and auto loans, rose by $334 billion in the third quarter to reach a record $19.1 trillion.
This total represents an increase of $5 trillion compared to 2019, just before the pandemic.
The volume of credit card balances falling into serious delinquency is declining, indicating some improvement in Americans’ ability to make their payments on time.
The rate of credit card debt transitioning into serious delinquency fell to 6.9% in the third quarter. However, this rate remains distinctly higher than the 5.2% recorded prior to the pandemic.
Americans living in lower-income neighbourhoods are facing greater difficulty in keeping up with their credit card payments compared to more affluent groups, according to a separate report published by the New York Fed on Tuesday.
Delinquency rates across all neighbourhood income tiers remain above pre-pandemic levels, while the gap between the wealthiest and poorest areas has widened since 2022.
In the lowest-income neighbourhoods, 10.3% of credit card balances transitioned into serious delinquency over the past year.
This is more than double the 4.4% rate observed in the wealthiest neighbourhoods.
The average credit card balance per borrower now stands at $6,678, according to TransUnion’s third-quarter analysis report.
Among borrowers under the age of 30, the rate of credit card debt falling at least 90 days delinquent reached the highest level, according to the Fed’s report.
Democrats won the midterm elections promising to bring down prices, but delivering relief that voters can genuinely feel in their household budgets will be a difficult target to achieve.
America
Mamdani quietly asks Trump to release detained immigrants
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is using his rapport with US President Donald Trump to secure the release of selected detained immigrants.
According to reporting by Politico, Mamdani persuaded Trump during their second White House meeting in February to free a university student who had been detained that day by ICE.
The outcome served as validation for Mamdani, who pointed to the release of the Columbia University senior as proof that his surprisingly cordial relationship with Trump could produce tangible results for New Yorkers.
Mamdani subsequently continued to seek similar immigration-related interventions from the Republican president.
Since that February meeting, Mamdani and his aides have quietly forwarded the names of approximately two dozen immigrant New Yorkers held in ICE custody to Trump’s team, asking the president to order their release.
Two sources familiar with the matter said Mamdani most recently shared names of detained immigrants during a September meeting with Trump at Gracie Mansion.
The sources said the individuals in question had no serious criminal records, though they declined to disclose their identities, citing safety concerns.
According to Politico, these ongoing efforts regarding detained immigrants indicate Mamdani’s belief that he can leverage his rapport with Trump to advance causes the mercurial president might not ordinarily support.
Mamdani’s decision not to disclose these continued appeals publicly suggests an inclination to keep his interventions private to improve their chances of success.
Yet it remains unclear whether any immigrant besides Columbia University student Elmina Aghayeva has actually been released as a result of these efforts, and concern is mounting within City Hall that the window for securing such releases may be closing.
Mamdani’s aides working on the releases, including his Chief of Staff Elle Bisgaard-Church, communicated primarily with Trump’s White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, according to people familiar with the matter.
Last week, Trump replaced Wiles with Stephen Miller, the architect of the administration’s most hardline immigration proposals and one of the loudest internal voices urging the president to pursue a mass deportation agenda in his second term.
A person familiar with the Mamdani administration’s thinking said the mayor’s team views it as unlikely that Miller will continue cooperating in the manner Wiles did, given his stance on immigration.
Mamdani spokesperson Dora Pekec declined to comment on internal concerns regarding Miller and did not provide details about the immigrants whose release the mayor had requested.
Pekec noted, however, that Mamdani has “consistently advocated directly on behalf of New Yorkers in his calls and meetings with the president.”
Murad Awawdeh, a close Mamdani ally and president and CEO of the New York Immigration Coalition, said the mayor’s team should not halt engagement with the Trump administration on immigration matters because of Miller’s promotion:
“Stephen Miller is a cruel individual who has spent his career attacking immigrants, but he is not the president; Donald Trump is, and this is his deportation agenda. New York expects the president to work with the mayor to serve this city and end the terror in our communities. Miller’s promotion changes none of that.”
Mamdani’s warm dynamic with Trump has confounded both allies and critics.
During last year’s New York mayoral election, Trump referred to Mamdani as a “communist lunatic” and threatened to have him arrested.
In turn, the 35-year-old democratic socialist branded the president a “fascist” and pledged to fight him relentlessly if elected mayor.
Yet that animosity fell away late last year during their first White House meeting, where an amicable tone prevailed.
The thaw culminated in September at Gracie Mansion, where Trump said Mamdani had “great potential” to be a “terrific mayor.”
Mamdani returned the compliment by noting that the president had “built quite a bit of housing in our city.”
Despite the polite exchange, questions remain over how much substantive progress Mamdani can genuinely secure through Trump, including on immigration.
To date, Aghayeva’s release stands as one of the few concrete concessions Mamdani has obtained from Trump.
Aides on both sides are also discussing a multi-billion-dollar federally backed housing initiative in Queens, and last month Mamdani used his channel to Trump to help secure a temporary visa for a Ghanaian woman whose son was shot and killed in the Bronx.
Beyond those instances, few tangible results have emerged, though Trump’s decision not to enact punitive measures against New York is viewed by Mamdani’s allies as a win for the city.
Trump’s political standing is widely seen as weakened following the Republican Party’s loss of both houses of Congress in elections last Tuesday.
How this political shift will affect Trump’s willingness to engage with ideological adversaries such as Mamdani remains uncertain.
Miller’s appointment as chief of staff appears to signal little presidential interest in moderation, particularly on immigration policy.
Even so, the mayor said last week that he does not intend to stop seeking Trump’s assistance, despite “fierce” policy disagreements.
“We have found an area of common interest in the well-being of New York City, and as long as that can deliver for our city, I’m going to keep that door open,” Mamdani told Politico on Friday in Puerto Rico.
Mamdani and other elected officials from New York had gathered in Puerto Rico for the annual Somos political conference.
Two days later, in an interview on Fox News, a network Trump is known to watch regularly, Mamdani described a “productive relationship” with the president, saying the two text and speak by phone frequently:
“Through those conversations, we were able to get a New Yorker out of ICE detention. We were able to secure a visa for a grieving mother who would have otherwise had to watch her son’s funeral from thousands of miles away. What that tells me is: My job is to deliver for New Yorkers, and I have to work with whoever has the power to do that, wherever they may be.”
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