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Fear of “if Biden loses, Trump comes” in the West

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Could the potential loss of US President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election bolster Russia’s negotiating stance? According to four senior US and European officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian leader Putin is strategizing his Ukrainian war plans with an eye on the 2024 elections. According to US and EU officials, Moscow believes that Biden’s departure from office could strengthen its position in Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine is intensifying in various hot spots, from Donbass in eastern Ukraine to the Black Sea and the coast of Odessa, making it challenging to forecast the immediate future of the war. Nonetheless, in the medium term, the trajectory of events can be somewhat predicted.

Currently, it appears unlikely that either side will achieve a definitive military victory.

During this stage of the war, Russia is concentrating on depleting Ukraine’s resources, while the Ukrainian government is actively seeking to enhance its inventory with advanced weapon systems, notably F-16 fighter jets.

While Russia is solidifying its position and has not shown significant vulnerability on the front line, even in the face of military rebellions like Wagner’s, the future military aid and training processes for the Ukrainian army, as well as the duration of the war for Ukraine, appear to be contingent on external developments beyond Kyiv’s control.

US and European officials have already initiated discussions regarding the implications of the 2024 presidential elections in light of the ongoing context. According to four US and EU officials who spoke to CNN International, Russian President Vladimir Putin has factored the 2024 presidential elections into his strategic considerations for the Ukrainian conflict.

“Trump will help Putin”

An anonymous US official suggests that Putin is trying to “hold out” until the 2024 election. According to the same source, Putin “knows that Trump will help him. So do the Ukrainians and our European partners.”

Former US President Donald Trump has consistently asserted in his statements on Ukraine that he could swiftly resolve the conflict in a day or two. Moreover, numerous Republicans in the US Senate and House of Representatives have been critical of and have questioned the provision of aid to Ukraine throughout the duration of the war.

According to a recent CNN International poll, a majority of Americans are opposed to providing further aid to Ukraine. Specifically, 71 percent of Republicans believe that Congress should not authorize new funding, and 59 percent of Republicans are of the opinion that the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine. On the other hand, the sentiments among Democrats differ significantly, with 62 percent expressing support for providing additional funding to Ukraine, and 61 percent believing that the US should do more to aid the country.

Donald Trump’s extremely heavy dossier, in which he is accused of interfering in the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, makes sense in this context.

2023 summer front

During this summer, two significant developments had an impact on the conflict in Ukraine. The first was the NATO Summit, and the second was Russia’s withdrawal from the Grain Corridor agreement. Ukraine aimed to attend the summit with a military victory, but NATO commanders urged them to launch an offensive they were not fully prepared for. Despite their efforts, the Ukrainian forces were unable to break through the multi-layered defense lines established by Russia, which had learned from past mistakes of the last year. Additionally, there was a rebellion by the Wagner Group during the offensive, but it did not lead to a favorable outcome for Ukraine.

When the offensive did not yield the desired results, the special forces attack on the Crimean Bridge and drone strikes against Moscow became prominent in Ukraine’s military actions.

In response to the situation before and after the NATO summit, Russia withdrew from the Grain Corridor. It started to strike Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea coasts again.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also visited the conflict zone in Ukraine. He inspected the command center of the Central Troop Group and received reports from the commanders of the troops on the current situation and performance.

The US administration is calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Russia, which seems to have recovered on the front line compared to a year ago.

According to the US, Russia is using food as a weapon and striking ports in Ukraine. A document condemning this has been submitted by the US to the UN Security Council. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also called on Security Council members to say “enough” to Moscow.

Moscow, for its part, says it will return to the Grain Corridor Agreement only after the compromise text includes steps to remove obstacles to the export of Russian agricultural products. According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian grain mainly goes to rich countries, not poor ones.

A reminder: Jubilation for Trump in Damascus in 2016

Beyond the daily and weekly developments, the 2024 elections will redefine the attitude of both Moscow and the Western bloc towards the Ukrainian war. In 2016, it is worth remembering why the Damascus regime cheered when Trump won the presidency. We do not know what would have happened in Syria, the hot conflict zone of that period, if Hilary Clinton, who laughed at the cameras during a program about Gaddafi, had won. However, trying to evaluate the possible effects of the US elections in 2024 on the Ukraine crisis by looking at the effects of the previous elections on Syria is also quite possible and perhaps the subject of a separate article.

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US wealthy demolish multimillion-dollar mansions for land

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Wealthy buyers in the US are tearing down multimillion-dollar homes shortly after purchasing them for hundreds of millions of dollars.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the trend is driven by a shortage of land in prestigious locations, particularly along coastlines.

For ultra-wealthy buyers, the prime factor has become the land’s location rather than the structure standing on it. After the acquired properties are flattened, newer, more modern homes are built on the cleared lots.

Drawing attention to the shift in the luxury real estate market, the report noted:

“The home itself, formerly the primary driver of an expensive real estate purchase, is now almost beside the point. Buyers are competing first and foremost for well-located land, situated on the ocean or a mountaintop.”

The newspaper cited moves by US billionaire William Lauder as an example. Lauder purchased the oceanfront estate of radio host Rush Limbaugh, who died in March 2023, for $155 million and had it completely demolished in July.

Lauder had previously torn down two homes situated on roughly 1.2 hectares of land along the Palm Beach coast. Having initially planned to construct his own residence on the parcel, Lauder subsequently sold the cleared plot for approximately $200 million.

Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser, stated that such transactions are becoming increasingly common as land prices rise.

Amid this momentum, estate agents have also begun marketing luxury homes directly as teardown lots.

Listings use artificial intelligence-generated imagery to showcase how the land would look without the structures on it.

Marketers avoid using the word “demolition” directly, resorting instead to terms such as “adaptive reuse”.

Teardown listings rise across luxury housing market

The trend is not confined to the coast and is spreading to other regions across the US.

Data from property brokerage Redfin reveals that references to demolishing buildings are becoming more frequent in sales listings.

The share of such listings exceeds 15% in the Bunker Hill Village area of Houston, while standing at 6.67% in Pimmit Hills, Virginia.

Dina Goldenteyer, a real estate agent working in Miami, remarked that serial demolitions have become more frequent because buyers no longer appreciate homes older than a decade.

Former retail executives Jamie Dooley and Christine Scott spent $3.7 million in 2020 to demolish a seaside home near Destin, Florida.

Although the couple spent five years building a modern home on the cleared site, they listed the resulting new structure with a demolition condition, citing the fact that no one wanted to buy the property as it stood.

William Paddock, an employee at the environmental consultancy WAP Sustainability, pointed to the environmental damage caused by this construction cycle.

Paddock emphasized that tearing down a home of roughly 1,000 square metres and replacing it with a new building of approximately 2,700 square metres generates a carbon footprint equivalent to the annual emissions of an average 250 American households.

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US inflation reaches 3.7% as midterm election campaign intensifies

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An uptick in September inflation as the US midterm elections approach has pushed the cost-of-living debate back to the centre of the agenda for Democrats seeking to regain control of Congress from Republicans.

Annual inflation stood at 3.7% in September, according to the Consumer Price Index published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, with energy, petrol, and electricity costs rising on a monthly basis.

Food prices remained flat from August to September, recording a 2.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

Democrats are anchoring their election campaigns to pledges of easing the cost of living, blaming the price increases on President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran.

Trump and Republicans, pointing to the numerous left-wing candidates who won primary elections this year, contend that the opposition has become captive to “communists” within the party.

When annual inflation stood at 2.4% in February, the US and Israel launched the Iran war on the final day of that month, and prices continued to climb throughout the conflict.

The recent acceleration has not entirely reversed the retreat from the 40-year peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022; however, the rate has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for over five years.

Fed policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month, citing the battle against stubborn inflation. Officials will convene again next week to consider whether to raise rates or hold them within the 3.75% to 4% target range.

Energy and fuel record sharpest increase since first month of war

In September, energy prices posted their largest monthly jump since March, the first full month of the war with Iran, climbing 20.4% year-on-year. Energy costs had risen 2.1% from July to August, after falling 1.5% from June to July and 5.7% from May to June.

Recent escalations in Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside more frequent strikes by Ukrainian forces against Russian refineries, have strained global crude oil and refined product markets, driving up US petrol and diesel prices.

Petrol prices also recorded their sharpest monthly increase since the first month of the war, climbing 9.1% from August to September, bringing the annual increase to 35.3%.

American Automobile Association (AAA) data shows the average price of regular petrol across the US stands at $4.26 per gallon; while below the level of roughly $4.48 recorded a month ago, it remains more than $1.20 higher than a year earlier. Average gallon prices exceed $6 in California and $5 in both Washington state and Nevada.

Electricity prices rose 0.2% from August to September, offsetting the 0.2% decline between July and August, and were up 4.4% year-on-year.

Heavy power demand from new data centres is feeding through into local household electricity bills. Trump argued that companies must cover the cost of the electricity required by their data centres themselves.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that he was requiring large data centres to generate their own power and feed the surplus back into the local grid, suggesting this could bring about “a major drop” in electricity prices.

Used vehicle market posts monthly rise as food costs stabilise

The cost of food at home fell 0.1% month-on-month in September, while dining out increased 0.2%.

Egg prices dropped to $2.27 a dozen, falling roughly 35% compared with September 2025 and remaining well below the 20-year peak of $6.23 recorded in March 2025.

Ground beef prices rose roughly 2.4% compared with September 2025, but at $6.48 a pound, they remained below the 20-year high of $6.98 reached in June.

Chicken held steady at its year-earlier level of $2.06 per pound last month, having fluctuated between $2.01 and $2.09 since November 2024.

Used car and truck prices fell 1.5% compared with September 2025, but rose 0.7% month-on-month in September following 0.4% increases in both July and August.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that the sector faces severe pressure stemming from a combination of expensive replacement parts and a shortage of skilled labour.

Speaking to The Hill, Long emphasised that every cost pressure across the market is being felt directly at local auto repair shops.

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Anthropic posts $80.7bn loss ahead of IPO as computing costs soar

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Anthropic, developer of the artificial intelligence model Claude, reported a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first six months of 2026 ending 30 June.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing the company’s draft initial public offering prospectus, this recorded loss nearly doubled the $42 billion loss incurred across the entirety of 2025.

The vast majority of that enormous figure, accounting for $72 billion, stemmed from accounting-driven book-value write-downs.

In contrast, the company saw a sharp surge in revenue, with turnover in the first half of the year climbing to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion in the same period of the prior year.

During this period, Anthropic spent approximately $9 billion on computing power and infrastructure needs, surpassing in just six months the $7.3 billion spent across the whole of 2025.

The company has commitments to pay roughly $450 billion over the next seven to 10 years under cloud service contracts.

Under these obligations, contracts are planned for $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with Amazon Web Services, and $31 billion with Microsoft.

Anthropic will also spend up to $86 billion by 2033 and 2034, respectively, to lease Nvidia chips through smaller AI-focused cloud providers Nscale and Lambda.

The company could spend an additional $750 billion in the coming years to expand its computing capacity.

Roughly a third of the draft IPO prospectus was dedicated directly to risk factors.

The document highlighted the possibility that models could cause tangible real-world harm, noting that artificial intelligence could exhibit a “self-preservation” tendency and produce responses resembling “blackmail”.

Anthropic warned that the scale of damage caused by an AI-driven “catastrophic event” could render insuring against such risks impossible.

According to market expectations, Anthropic’s IPO could rank among the largest transactions in history, potentially surpassing SpaceX’s record.

Following the market debut, the company’s market valuation is projected to reach up to $2 trillion.

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