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IMF urges Germany to overhaul pension system and raise taxes to fix budget

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The IMF is advising the German government to follow a completely new course. To close the deficits in the budget, the monetary fund is also calling for the implementation of higher taxes in specific areas.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is pressuring the German government to increase wealth taxes. In its new analysis of the German economy, the IMF writes that possible options for consolidating the federal budget include “closing loopholes in the inheritance tax” and “increasing property and alcohol taxes, which are relatively low in Germany.”

Another demand is likely to resonate within political circles in Berlin. The IMF is proposing a pension reform that moves in a completely different direction from the federal government’s proposal: future pension payments would be linked to inflation, not wage increases. This would limit the growth of pensions.

Furthermore, the IMF is calling for increased deductions for early retirement to “achieve savings and at the same time stimulate growth by increasing incentives for a longer working life.”

The IMF prepares an annual analysis of the state of the German economy. This year, however, the report is likely to be read with particular interest in the country.

Germany is facing economic challenges of a magnitude not seen since the beginning of the millennium, and its economy is being tested by recession for the third consecutive year. This is an unprecedented situation in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

The IMF is therefore urging the federal government to support the debt program initiated in the spring with a reform program.

“Without deeper reforms both domestically and at the EU level, Germany will continue to face challenging growth prospects in the medium term,” the report states.

According to the IMF, the German economy is going through a difficult period not only at present but also in the medium term. Germany’s medium-term growth prospects continue to be overshadowed by a “slowdown in productivity growth and the rapid aging of the population.”

Among the G7 countries, no nation is expected to experience a greater contraction of its labor force than Germany over the next five years. This situation will further exacerbate the existing shortage of skilled labor.

In addition, there are geopolitical risks that pose special challenges for Germany as an exporting nation. According to the analysis, these include “intensifying geopolitical tensions, escalating trade conflicts, and fluctuations in raw material prices.” These factors could “negatively affect the German economy’s supply of essential intermediate goods, thereby weakening confidence, investment, and trade.”

In the face of ongoing growth weakness, the new federal government has announced it will reform the social state and administration. It also needs to close huge budget deficits that will total 140 billion euros by 2029.

By the end of the year, at least part of this reform agenda will be ready. So far, the government has not disclosed which specific reforms it plans.

In the spring, the federal government implemented a comprehensive debt package prepared by the CDU/CSU and SPD to modernize the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and infrastructure. In its report, the IMF explicitly praises the investment program and corporate tax cuts.

“After several years of severe economic crises and negative growth, Germany’s pioneering fiscal reform at the beginning of this year paved the way for an economic recovery, supported by a gradual acceleration in domestic investment and consumption,” the IMF says.

According to Handelsblatt, this praise is hardly surprising, as the Fund has been pushing Germany to implement just such an investment program for years.

However, the IMF warns that Germany must use its debt program “prudently” so that it can genuinely increase the economy’s productivity.

Many German economists accuse the federal government of misusing the special infrastructure fund to finance election promises or cover budget deficits. The federal government denies these accusations.

Nevertheless, the IMF also offers a thinly veiled criticism in its analysis. The additional resources from the debt brake reform should be used for “public investments, aid for low- and middle-income groups, and higher defense spending.”

“Costly and distorting measures, such as reduced VAT rates for specific sectors, should be avoided,” the IMF states. This can be read as a criticism of the federal government’s attempt to lower VAT for the gastronomy sector.

The IMF notes that instead of pleasing individual sectors with additional tax advantages, the federal government should implement structural reforms.

The IMF’s specific demands are as follows:

In addition to a pension reform that will reduce the costs of the pension system, the federal government should eliminate environmentally harmful subsidies, tax breaks, and VAT exemptions. Since income tax and social security contributions are “already relatively high,” additional increases should be “kept as low as possible.”

To address the shortage of skilled labor, the state needs to facilitate full-time work for women and parents by offering more reliable child and elderly care services. Furthermore, abolishing the practice of separate income assessment for spouses and increasing the amount of child benefit could incentivize second-income earners to work more.

The unfortunate intertwining of tax and social systems makes it unattractive for low-income individuals to work more, as almost nothing is left from a higher salary. Consolidating multiple social benefits and creating more uniform payment rates could increase the incentive to enter the workforce and save the state budget money.

According to the IMF, further simplifying the integration of immigrants into the German labor market remains crucial in combating the skilled labor shortage.

The IMF also points out that excessive bureaucracy is a major competitive disadvantage for Germany. “The excessive bureaucratic burden continues to hinder productivity,” the monetary fund writes. The state needs to minimize redundancies in reporting obligations and conduct risk-based compliance checks instead of imposing overly costly reporting requirements. Additionally, there is still great potential for accelerating permit and approval procedures.

According to the IMF, one of the “most effective measures” that could boost Germany’s growth is the deepening of the EU single market. Reforms for better integration of capital markets and financial market supervision could expand financing opportunities for startups and strengthen the entire ecosystem for young, innovative companies. The digital euro could increase the efficiency and integration of payment systems across Europe.

However, Germany is struggling with the deepening of the capital market union because politicians do not want to disrupt the three-pillar system consisting of savings banks and cooperative banks.

In contrast, the federal government may soon have to reform the inheritance tax. The Federal Constitutional Court will shortly decide whether the current inheritance tax is unconstitutional.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil could also use the IMF as a key witness for the necessary cuts in the federal budget. The SPD politician has announced his intention to cut subsidies to close budget deficits.

However, such a rapid change of course on pensions seems unlikely. The coalition leaders want to stick to their reforms to fix pension levels until 2031. The government aims to pass the pension package through parliament within this year.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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