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Le Pen wins first round of French elections

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The first round of the snap National Assembly elections, called by French President Emmanuel Macron following his heavy defeat in the European Parliament elections, took place on 30 June.

According to preliminary results, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party came first with around 33% of the vote, while the New Popular Front (NFP) came second with 28%. Macron’s alliance, All Together for the Republic (Ensemble), received 21% of the vote, while the conservative Les Républicains received 10%.

If no candidate in a constituency wins an absolute majority (more than 50% of the votes cast) in the first round, a run-off election is held.

This is the case in most constituencies. According to preliminary results, only 39 candidates from the RN, which has 297 MPs, have won an absolute majority in their constituencies.

The second round will take place on 7 July and will be between the top two candidates from the first round. However, any candidate who received the votes of at least 12.5 per cent of registered voters in the first round can also participate in the second round. The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins the seat, even if there is no absolute majority.

Therefore, even if the RN were to win the first round, it is currently uncertain whether they would have an absolute majority (289 seats) in parliament.

Le Pen wants ‘absolute majority’

Le Pen declared that her party had “practically wiped out” Emmanuel Macron after winning the first round of the election.

Speaking after the results were announced, Le Pen said she would seek an “absolute majority” in the second round of voting next Sunday.

Addressing her supporters after the polls closed, Le Pen said: “Democracy has spoken and the French have almost wiped out the Macron camp and put the RN and its allies in the lead. We need an absolute majority so that [RN leader] Jordan Bardella can be appointed prime minister within a week,” she said.

Le Pen was re-elected as MP for Hénin-Beaumont in the first round after winning more than 50% of the vote.

‘No vote for the RN’ statement by Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Without a Front (LFI), the main party of the New Popular Front (NFP), said on Sunday that Macron’s alliance had suffered a “heavy and undeniable” defeat in the snap elections and called on the French people to vote against the far right.

The LFI leader said he would withdraw his candidates in constituencies where his party came third and the RN was leading ahead of the run-off.

“Our instructions are simple, direct and clear. Not one more vote, not one more seat for the RN,” Mélenchon said.

The LFI leader also called on voters to give “an absolute majority to the New Popular Front”.

“The country will have to make a choice,” Mélenchon said in a statement from his party’s campaign headquarters. He argued that the options for Sunday’s second round were “either the New Popular Front or national unity”.

Macron calls for a ‘broad alliance against the right’

For his part, Macron called for a “broad alliance” to prevent the victory of the “extreme right”.

“The time has come for a great, openly democratic and republican rally against the National Rally for a second round,” he said.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal argued that “not a single vote should go to the National Rally”.

Warning that “the far right is on the verge of power”, Attal said his party would abandon its candidacy in 60 constituencies to support “republican” candidates against the RN.

Demonstration against the RN in Paris

Meanwhile, thousands of people took to the streets of Paris to protest against the RN’s victory.

“I’m really worried about the far right coming to power,” Alban, a 23-year-old student who requested anonymity, told POLITICO. Alban said they still had a week to go and would “keep fighting”.

Reuters later broadcast video of protesters setting off fireworks as they marched through Paris. BFMTV reported that 200 police had been deployed in Lyon to deal with the protests.

The ‘security cordon’ has collapsed and will collapse again

A week of political bargaining will now begin as centre and left parties decide whether to withdraw from individual seats to prevent the RN, long excluded from mainstream French politics, from winning a majority.

In the past, when the RN has made a strong showing in the first round of voting, centre and left parties have joined forces to prevent it from taking office under a principle previously known as ‘cordon sanitaire’.

After Jean-Marie Le Pen, Le Pen’s father and the decades-long leader of the RN’s predecessor, the National Front, unexpectedly defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the Socialists threw their weight behind centre-right candidate Jacques Chirac, giving him a landslide victory in the second round.

Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, seen as the more “moderate” part of the NFP, made a personal plea to Macron to withdraw from some seats to prevent the RN from winning a majority.

“We are counting on you: withdraw if you come third in a three-way race, and if you don’t make it to the second round, ask your supporters to vote for a candidate who supports republican values,” Tondelier said.

Bardella hits Popular Front, not Macron

In his speech last night, RN leader Jordan Bardella, who wants to become prime minister if his party wins on 7 July, did not criticise Macron’s camp, but instead attacked the National Front.

Bardella said the New Popular Front was “an existential threat to the French nation” and accused the NFP of wanting to disarm the police and open France’s borders to migrants, and of having “no moral limits”.

“It is time to give power to leaders who understand you, who care about you,” the RN leader told voters.

AfD wants RN to win

The RN also received support from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), from which it had recently distanced itself.

AfD leader Alice Weidel said she hoped for a decisive victory for the RN in the French parliamentary elections, although she acknowledged that there was a rift between the parties that would be difficult to heal.

Weidel told the Financial Times that she was “hopeful” for the RN and optimistic that its leader, Jordan Bardella, would become France’s youngest ever prime minister.

Weidel said he had “full confidence in Bardella and the RN’s ability to shake up their country”, while Bernd Baumann, leader of the AfD in the Bundestag, said the RN’s popularity showed that the entire European right “has the wind in its sails”.

“Giorgia Meloni, Marine Le Pen, the FPÖ in Austria, all this is a confirmation for us and shows that we are on the right side of history,” Baumann said.

But Weidel conceded that the AfD and RN had little chance of overcoming the dispute that led to their expulsion from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament in May, following a series of scandals involving the German party.

Weidel said the AfD was looking for new partners and was trying to form its own group.

Weidel also insisted that he had “no grudge” against Marine Le Pen, the RN’s parliamentary leader.

EUROPE

EU demands HTS to expel Russian and Iranian influence

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The European Union (EU) has called on Syria’s interim leadership, headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to ensure the country’s future is inclusive, free of extremism, and independent of Russian and Iranian interference, according to senior European diplomats on Monday.

The Associated Press (AP) reported that following the fall of Damascus on 8 December, incidents of reprisals, revenge killings, or sectarian violence have been minimal. Looting and destruction were largely brought under control shortly thereafter.

The interim government, formed by opposition forces led by HTS, is deemed a terrorist organization by both the EU and the United States. Critics note that the new leadership has yet to articulate a comprehensive vision for governing Syria.

The EU plans to dispatch an envoy to Damascus for discussions with the new authorities, aiming to assess the direction of Syria’s political transition. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized the bloc’s demand for a stable, peaceful, and inclusive government, acknowledging that clarity on Syria’s new trajectory could take weeks or months.

“Syria is facing an optimistic yet uncertain future. We need assurances that progress is moving in the right direction. This is not just about words—we need tangible actions,” Kallas stated during an EU foreign ministers’ meeting.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot outlined specific conditions for lifting sanctions or providing EU development aid. These include that a political transition ensuring representation for all Syrian minority groups, adherence to human rights and women’s rights, and a firm rejection of terrorism and extremism.

Similarly, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares underscored the importance of respecting EU “red lines.” These include safeguarding Syria’s territorial integrity and eliminating foreign interference.

“If these issues are adequately addressed, we can open discussions about lifting sanctions,” Albares said.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp reinforced the EU’s demand for the removal of Russian military bases from Syria. “We want the Russians out,” he declared.

In a pointed statement, Kallas warned Syria’s new leaders against relying on Russia and Iran. “Russia and Iran are not your friends. They abandoned the Assad regime and are now weakened, preoccupied with their own challenges,” she asserted.

The EU remains cautious but hopeful as it navigates relations with Syria’s interim government, advocating for a peaceful political future rooted in democracy, human rights, and freedom from external manipulation.

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EUROPE

Germany’s new strategy: ‘Restructuring the country with a focus on defense’

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In parallel with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s call for NATO countries in Europe to develop a ‘war mentality’, the German government has drawn up a comprehensive plan for ‘defense cooperation’.

At an event last week organized by NATO’s public relations department, which aims to use intermediaries, including journalists, to spread the military alliance’s ‘message’, Rutte declared that even today we are no longer ‘living in peace’.

Claiming that the European defense industry had been ‘gutted’ by ‘decades of underinvestment’ and petty national interests, Rutte called for a ‘transition to a war mentality’.

‘National Security and Defence Industry Strategy’ in Berlin

The German government has long pursued the large-scale arms build-up called for by Rutte, and earlier this month adopted a National Security and Defence Industry Strategy document to underpin it.

The document states that Germany must ‘become defense-oriented as quickly as possible’. To this end, the ‘rapidly growing demand for military goods, services and innovations’ must be met as quickly as possible.

To this end, the German government has presented a new strategy drawn up in cooperation with the German defense industry, and Berlin is relying on close defense industry cooperation in Europe. In this context, it is stated that ‘only in cooperation with our European partners’ can the desired capacities be built.

‘National defence interests’ as a condition for German-European cooperation

It is emphasized, however, that this cooperation can only take place ‘in appropriate cases’ and with ‘equal participation’ of German companies.

This is because ‘in order to maintain and strengthen the strategic sovereignty and mobility of the Federal Republic of Germany’, ‘certain core capabilities and capacities of the security and defense industry … must be maintained at national level’.

It also aims to secure Germany’s leading position in the EU defense industry.

Farewell to civil R&D

In concrete terms, the German government proposes a number of measures.

For example, a “closer […] dovetailing of civilian and security- and defense-related research and development” is to be examined”.

This will also require an ‘open discussion on civil regulations’, which has been taking place at some universities for some time.

In addition, the current requirements for the construction and operation of arsenals are to be reduced, while the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and the European Investment Bank are to be used more for arms financing.

Berlin is also seeking measures to ‘diversify and make more flexible supply chains’ in order to become virtually independent of ‘hostile states’, especially China.

This is likely to further increase the price of defense products. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently reported that efforts by some new entrants in the U.S. defense industry to eliminate Chinese raw materials and components have shown that it is possible, but expensive: Expenditures were said to have increased ‘in some cases by six to 10 times’.

A global role for the Bundeswehr

The fact that the National Security and Defence Industrial Strategy explicitly states that ‘military capabilities, equipment and hardware’ for the Bundeswehr must be ‘deployable and operational in all situations, sizes, geo-strategic areas and climatic conditions’ refutes the claim that rearmament is only about national defense.

The document also confirms the German government’s intention to consolidate an increasing number of Bundeswehr operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

In fact, German troops are deployed in a wide range of ‘climatic conditions’ and ‘geo-strategic areas’ in the Asia-Pacific region and in the territorial waters and land masses leading to it.

The fact that the Bundeswehr is also ‘deployable’ everywhere shows that Berlin is clearly keeping the door open for German participation in wars anywhere in the world, including the Asia-Pacific region.

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Macron appoints François Bayrou as France’s new PM

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A week after the fall of the French government, President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as the country’s new prime minister. This appointment comes at a critical juncture as France faces political instability and mounting economic challenges.

Bayrou, 73, is the leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (Democratic Movement – MoDem) party, a centrist political group allied with Macron’s camp. He is also the mayor of Pau, a city in southern France, and is highly regarded by conservative factions. Known for his close ties with Macron, Bayrou is considered a trusted confidant of the president.

The announcement of Bayrou’s appointment followed a brief meeting with Macron at the Élysée Palace, which lasted less than two hours. The day before, the two had discussed the political situation over the phone. Macron’s entourage had earlier hinted that the new prime minister would be named on Friday morning.

Bayrou takes office amidst sharp political divisions in the National Assembly, where no party holds a majority. The assembly is currently split into three opposing blocs: The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), Macron’s Centrist Coalition, and the right-wing National Rally (RN) and its allies.

The previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, was dismissed after failing to secure a quorum for the 2025 budget. Barnier’s tenure lasted only three months, highlighting the fragility of Macron’s government. The new head of government must now form an administration that can withstand potential votes of no confidence.

Bayrou’s appointment was met with mixed reactions. Conservatives expressed respect for Bayrou’s leadership and a willingness to cooperate. The Greens and Socialists criticized the decision, arguing that it signaled a continuation of existing policies rather than a fresh start.

Reports suggest that some conservatives and sections of the left have promised to tolerate the new government. However, if a broad coalition is not formed, a minority government would remain vulnerable to collapse.

Macron’s quick decision to appoint Bayrou is seen as a calculated risk. The president aims to stabilize the government and avert further political turmoil. Yet, opposition parties have escalated their criticism, with some even calling for Macron’s resignation.

France also faces mounting economic pressures, driven by excessive national debt. Observers suggest that fiscal discipline and strategic policymaking will be critical in navigating the ongoing challenges.

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