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Muslim American votes matter; Who do they vote for?

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After all, less than a week before the American elections, the efforts of the Democratic and Republican campaigns have been more focused on the key states or the main battlegrounds.  American strategists believe that the competition in the 2024 elections will be historic and very tight. In the highly competitive atmosphere of the US elections, the issue of the Muslim vote in the United States has become important and its influence on the fate of the outcome of this process has become unprecedentedly more prominent for both candidates.

According to the latest US census that was conducted in 2018, the American Muslim population is reported to be more than four million and 953 thousand people.

This population is mostly settled in the states of the east and west coasts of America. California, New York, Virginia, Michigan, Maryland, Illinois, Georgia and Pennsylvania are among the states that have the largest Muslim population.

Although Muslims make up only about one percent of the US population, they are an important voting block due to their concentration in key states such as Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, where they often win elections by narrow margins.

Muslim support was crucial to Biden’s victory in 2020

And in the 2020 election, Biden was able to win the election from Trump by getting 65pc of the Muslim votes in these states. Muslim support was crucial to Biden’s victory, as he won key states by narrow margins.

In the previous election, Joe Biden was able to win the state of Georgia by only 12,000 votes, a state where more than 61,000 Muslim voters live. Biden also won the 2020 Pennsylvania election with a difference of 81 thousand votes. The number of Muslim voters in this state reaches 125 thousand people.

On the other hand, according to the findings of the Pew Research Center, 62pc of the Muslim population has a traditional party preference for the Democrats, 17pc have a party affiliation with the Republicans, and the rest 21pc are independent. But apparently in this period the equations have changed and the figures have been messed up.

Why has Muslim support for Democrats diminished?

The Institute for the Study of Social Policy and Convergence, which is located in the state of Michigan, in its latest report stated that in this election, the Muslim community seems more united than ever on a political issue; And that is the US government’s stance on the Gaza war.

According to this institute, any candidate who hopes to win the support of large sections of Muslim voters must respond to the demands of Muslim voters to end the war in Gaza.

The broad political and military support of the Biden administration to Israel in the Gaza war has caused some Muslim communities to distance themselves from the Democrats.

But the war in Gaza is not the only issue for Muslim voters, the fight against Islamophobia, the policy of supporting traditional families and health insurance programs are among the things that Muslim Americans will consider in their choice.

Who is leading in the polls among Muslim voters?

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in a survey of 40,000 Muslim voters in six key states found that despite the dissatisfaction of the American Muslim community with the Democrats, among its voters, Harris leads Trump with 29.4 percent of votes while Trump stands on 11.2 percent.

What is important in this survey is the amount of Muslim support for Jill Stein, the candidate of the Green Party, at 29.1 percent. Most Muslim voters have called this support a form of protest against the Democrats’ policy towards the Gaza war.

Arab-American showed support to Trump

Amir Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, who is from Yemen, supported Donald Trump as the first Arab American and the first Muslim to manage the city, describing him as a “man of peace”.

This big turn in the position of Muslims and Trump shows significant changes. By getting the support of Amir Ghalib, Trump is trying to connect with the Muslim and Arab American community in this state and it seems that he intends to attract a significant number of Muslim voters in other states with this support.

Trump’s presence with a number of Muslim leaders in the state of Michigan was an unusual scene and indicates a change in his policies and the views of Muslims in this year’s presidential election compared to the previous one.

Anti-Muslim immigration law still on the table

One of the most important concerns among American Muslims is that with Trump’s victory, the “law prohibiting Muslim immigration” may be reinstated.

This is the reason Kamala Harris seeks to turn Muslims away from Trump. Former US President Barack Obama asked Muslims not to vote for Trump during Harris’ campaign in Pennsylvania.

During the campaign, Obama reminded Muslims that Trump had strict policies against them in the past and said “If you are an American Muslim and you are upset about what is happening in the Middle East, why would you vote for someone who approved the Muslim ban. Does it mean that you are not part of our American society?”.

The result of the US presidential election is not yet clear, but one thing is clear: The role of Muslims in this election can be decisive.

For years, Muslims in America have focused on improving and building institutional capacity to change the way Muslims engage in politics. It seems that significant progress has been made in this direction and the Muslim community is gradually trying to have more influence in the political arena.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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AMERICA

Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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AMERICA

Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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