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State elections in Germany: CDU wins in Saxony, AfD in Thuringia

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Elections in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia have once again confirmed the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD).

According to exit polls, the AfD won the state elections in the eastern German state of Thuringia on Sunday 1 September with 30.5 per cent of the vote, the party’s first victory in a state election.

Around five million people in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia were eligible to vote for new state parliaments.

In the smaller state of Thuringia, the AfD made German history with 30.5 per cent of the vote, while the main opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came second with 24.5 per cent.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new left-wing party founded by defectors from Die Linke, made a significant showing, coming in third with 16 per cent of the vote.

Incumbent state premier Bodo Ramelow’s Left Party, which has so far formed a minority government with the Social Democrats and the Greens, lost more than half its share of the vote compared to the previous election in 2019, reaching only 12.5 per cent of the vote this time.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD won 7 per cent of the vote, while the national coalition partners, the Greens and the liberal FDP, did not receive enough votes to be represented in the next state parliament.

In Thuringia, the turnout was over 70 per cent.

Right-wing consolidates in Saxony with AfD and CDU

Compared to previous state elections since the annexation of the GDR, voter turnout in Saxony reached record levels.

With 74.4 per cent of voters in the state, the turnout surpassed the record set in 1990, when 72.8 per cent of voters went to the polls.

According to public broadcaster ARD, the CDU of incumbent state premier Michael Kretschmer won a narrow victory in Saxony with 31.5 per cent of the vote, just ahead of the AfD with 30 per cent.

The BSW also came third in Saxony, with 12 per cent of the vote.

Kretschmer has so far governed in coalition with the Greens and the SPD, which won 5.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent of the vote respectively, and both will be represented in the next state parliament.

AfD leader Weidel: Voters want AfD-CDU coalition

Speaking to ZDF after the election results were announced, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel argued that voters had voted for an AfD-CDU coalition.

Pointing out that without the AfD there would be no stable government in the state governments, Weidel said that the parties forming the traffic light coalition in the federal government had been punished.

Tino Chrupalla, the party’s other co-leader, told ZDF that in Thuringia, as in Saxony, the will of the voters had been formed, that there should be a political change and that there was a clear mandate to govern in Thuringia.

“The AfD is ready to talk to all parties, and others should consider whether the so-called firewall against the AfD is still valid,” Chrupalla said.

AfD’s Höcke wants talks with other parties

“We are the number one people’s party,” Björn Höcke, leader of the AfD in Thuringia, told ARD television. Speaking of a historic result, Höcke added that he would start talks with other parties about joining the government.

We are ready to take on the responsibility of government,” Höcke said, adding that it was a good parliamentary tradition for the strongest party to invite people to talks after the election.

Höcke failed to win his own constituency in Thuringia. According to the state election officer in the Greiz II constituency, Höcke was defeated by CDU candidate Christian Tischner in the direct election to the state parliament. Höcke received 38.9 per cent of the vote, compared to 43 per cent for Tischner.

Höcke had long been looking for a promising constituency after losing the state election to the CDU in the predominantly Catholic Eichsfeld district of Thuringia five years ago.

CDU refused to cooperate with AfD, Greens and Left Party in Thuringia

CDU candidate Mario Voigt, who came second in Thuringia with 23.7 per cent of the vote, presented himself as a clear alternative to the minority coalition of left-wing state premier Bodo Ramelow, but found it difficult to capitalise on the discontent in the state.

Voigt organised his campaign as a “duel” between himself and Höcke, presenting himself as a Thuringia politician as opposed to a West German politician like Höcke or Ramelow.

Voigt categorically rejected cooperation with the AfD, as well as with the Left Party and the Greens.

Voigt told his supporters earlier in the evening that the CDU had returned as ‘the strongest force in the political centre’.

Voigt also believes that his party has the mandate to govern. “We in the CDU also see this as an opportunity for political change in the CDU leadership,” he said in Erfurt.

Left-wing premier wants CDU to form government

“I am fighting against the normalisation of fascism,” Thuringia’s Prime Minister Ramelow told ARD television about the AfD.

In the election campaign, Ramelow had not fought against the CDU or the BSW, but against the AfD. Now he believes that Voigt, the CDU’s top candidate, has taken on the task of governing.

“Whoever gets the most votes from across the democratic spectrum should initiate talks and invite them,” Ramelow said.

“I have no problem with a political office being given for a limited period of time,” the Left Party politician said of the prospect of losing his position as prime minister.

Green light from Wagenknecht for CDU and SPD

Alongside the AfD, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was one of the big winners of the election.

With Katja Wolf, a former left-wing politician, as its top candidate in Thuringia, the BSW won 15.6 per cent of the vote and entered the state parliament in Erfurt.

During the election campaign, the BSW scored points on national issues, such as criticising arms supplies to Ukraine and calling for negotiations with Russia.

But its positions on limiting immigration and social security also attracted the attention of many voters.

“We hope to form a good government [in Saxony] together with the CDU, possibly also with the SPD,” party leader Sahra Wagenknecht told ARD television. “I hope it will work,” she said.

“A similar coalition could also be considered in Thuringia,” the BSW leader said.

Wagenknecht, on the other hand, explicitly ruled out a coalition with the AfD in Thuringia, stressing that they ‘cannot work together’ with AfD state leader Björn Höcke.

However, a statement on the BSW’s official X account said: “In addition to concrete improvements for the people, a commitment to diplomacy in the Ukraine war and a rejection of the deployment of US medium-range missiles are essential for possible coalitions. We do not exist only as a majority supplier. That remains the case,” the statement said.

The CDU is open to establishing contact with the BSW

CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann regards his party’s election results in Thuringia and Saxony as a success. Speaking to ARD, Linnemann said that the CDU is a ‘real people’s party’ and argued that the traffic light parties had been punished and that the AfD result was deceptive.

Linnemann emphasised that the CDU would not form a coalition with the AfD. As for possible alliances between the CDU and the BSW, he said that this would be decided in the federal states by the two CDU leadership candidates Kretschmer and Voigt.

Jens Spahn, deputy chairman of the CDU parliamentary group, believes that it is possible for the CDU to work together with the BSW at the state level. Spahn is convinced that the BSW in Thuringia primarily wants to focus on state politics.

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China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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