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State elections in Germany: CDU wins in Saxony, AfD in Thuringia

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Elections in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia have once again confirmed the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD).

According to exit polls, the AfD won the state elections in the eastern German state of Thuringia on Sunday 1 September with 30.5 per cent of the vote, the party’s first victory in a state election.

Around five million people in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia were eligible to vote for new state parliaments.

In the smaller state of Thuringia, the AfD made German history with 30.5 per cent of the vote, while the main opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came second with 24.5 per cent.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new left-wing party founded by defectors from Die Linke, made a significant showing, coming in third with 16 per cent of the vote.

Incumbent state premier Bodo Ramelow’s Left Party, which has so far formed a minority government with the Social Democrats and the Greens, lost more than half its share of the vote compared to the previous election in 2019, reaching only 12.5 per cent of the vote this time.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD won 7 per cent of the vote, while the national coalition partners, the Greens and the liberal FDP, did not receive enough votes to be represented in the next state parliament.

In Thuringia, the turnout was over 70 per cent.

Right-wing consolidates in Saxony with AfD and CDU

Compared to previous state elections since the annexation of the GDR, voter turnout in Saxony reached record levels.

With 74.4 per cent of voters in the state, the turnout surpassed the record set in 1990, when 72.8 per cent of voters went to the polls.

According to public broadcaster ARD, the CDU of incumbent state premier Michael Kretschmer won a narrow victory in Saxony with 31.5 per cent of the vote, just ahead of the AfD with 30 per cent.

The BSW also came third in Saxony, with 12 per cent of the vote.

Kretschmer has so far governed in coalition with the Greens and the SPD, which won 5.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent of the vote respectively, and both will be represented in the next state parliament.

AfD leader Weidel: Voters want AfD-CDU coalition

Speaking to ZDF after the election results were announced, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel argued that voters had voted for an AfD-CDU coalition.

Pointing out that without the AfD there would be no stable government in the state governments, Weidel said that the parties forming the traffic light coalition in the federal government had been punished.

Tino Chrupalla, the party’s other co-leader, told ZDF that in Thuringia, as in Saxony, the will of the voters had been formed, that there should be a political change and that there was a clear mandate to govern in Thuringia.

“The AfD is ready to talk to all parties, and others should consider whether the so-called firewall against the AfD is still valid,” Chrupalla said.

AfD’s Höcke wants talks with other parties

“We are the number one people’s party,” Björn Höcke, leader of the AfD in Thuringia, told ARD television. Speaking of a historic result, Höcke added that he would start talks with other parties about joining the government.

We are ready to take on the responsibility of government,” Höcke said, adding that it was a good parliamentary tradition for the strongest party to invite people to talks after the election.

Höcke failed to win his own constituency in Thuringia. According to the state election officer in the Greiz II constituency, Höcke was defeated by CDU candidate Christian Tischner in the direct election to the state parliament. Höcke received 38.9 per cent of the vote, compared to 43 per cent for Tischner.

Höcke had long been looking for a promising constituency after losing the state election to the CDU in the predominantly Catholic Eichsfeld district of Thuringia five years ago.

CDU refused to cooperate with AfD, Greens and Left Party in Thuringia

CDU candidate Mario Voigt, who came second in Thuringia with 23.7 per cent of the vote, presented himself as a clear alternative to the minority coalition of left-wing state premier Bodo Ramelow, but found it difficult to capitalise on the discontent in the state.

Voigt organised his campaign as a “duel” between himself and Höcke, presenting himself as a Thuringia politician as opposed to a West German politician like Höcke or Ramelow.

Voigt categorically rejected cooperation with the AfD, as well as with the Left Party and the Greens.

Voigt told his supporters earlier in the evening that the CDU had returned as ‘the strongest force in the political centre’.

Voigt also believes that his party has the mandate to govern. “We in the CDU also see this as an opportunity for political change in the CDU leadership,” he said in Erfurt.

Left-wing premier wants CDU to form government

“I am fighting against the normalisation of fascism,” Thuringia’s Prime Minister Ramelow told ARD television about the AfD.

In the election campaign, Ramelow had not fought against the CDU or the BSW, but against the AfD. Now he believes that Voigt, the CDU’s top candidate, has taken on the task of governing.

“Whoever gets the most votes from across the democratic spectrum should initiate talks and invite them,” Ramelow said.

“I have no problem with a political office being given for a limited period of time,” the Left Party politician said of the prospect of losing his position as prime minister.

Green light from Wagenknecht for CDU and SPD

Alongside the AfD, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was one of the big winners of the election.

With Katja Wolf, a former left-wing politician, as its top candidate in Thuringia, the BSW won 15.6 per cent of the vote and entered the state parliament in Erfurt.

During the election campaign, the BSW scored points on national issues, such as criticising arms supplies to Ukraine and calling for negotiations with Russia.

But its positions on limiting immigration and social security also attracted the attention of many voters.

“We hope to form a good government [in Saxony] together with the CDU, possibly also with the SPD,” party leader Sahra Wagenknecht told ARD television. “I hope it will work,” she said.

“A similar coalition could also be considered in Thuringia,” the BSW leader said.

Wagenknecht, on the other hand, explicitly ruled out a coalition with the AfD in Thuringia, stressing that they ‘cannot work together’ with AfD state leader Björn Höcke.

However, a statement on the BSW’s official X account said: “In addition to concrete improvements for the people, a commitment to diplomacy in the Ukraine war and a rejection of the deployment of US medium-range missiles are essential for possible coalitions. We do not exist only as a majority supplier. That remains the case,” the statement said.

The CDU is open to establishing contact with the BSW

CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann regards his party’s election results in Thuringia and Saxony as a success. Speaking to ARD, Linnemann said that the CDU is a ‘real people’s party’ and argued that the traffic light parties had been punished and that the AfD result was deceptive.

Linnemann emphasised that the CDU would not form a coalition with the AfD. As for possible alliances between the CDU and the BSW, he said that this would be decided in the federal states by the two CDU leadership candidates Kretschmer and Voigt.

Jens Spahn, deputy chairman of the CDU parliamentary group, believes that it is possible for the CDU to work together with the BSW at the state level. Spahn is convinced that the BSW in Thuringia primarily wants to focus on state politics.

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Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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