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The US Army and Texan Bandidos in Ukraine

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Confirming the presence of the US troops in Ukraine, the Pentagon has drawn up a three-stage action plan on blocking the illegal arms trafficking in Eastern Europe. The US inspection network does not only include Ukraine, but also other countries neighboring Ukraine or its neighbors across the sea. While the names of the countries included in this network to be established not mentioned, the reality that an illegal arms market similar to that in the Middle East and the Balkans, are being implicitly admitted.

According to an official statement by the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) regarding the activities of the deployed US troops in Ukraine, military advisors from the US military will conduct arms inspections in Ukraine. And the main subject of the inspection is summarized as; the final destination of the US/Western arms supplies. It will be inspected whether these high-tech conventional weapons are properly used at the front. And the most important part would be to ensure that these arms would not fall into the hands of the Russians, and to “prevent” the rise of an illegal arms market.

The Pentagon held a press conference with journalists on the issue on October 31st but refrained to share any information on the number of specialists deployed in Ukraine or the locations they will serve. These inspectors “are not to be deployed in close combat zones” the officials said.

Thus, this statement officially confirmed the presence and the activities of the US military in Ukraine, apart from the military personnel protecting the US diplomats in Kiev. The Pentagon had evacuated all US troops from the country on February 14th, exactly 10 days before the conflict began.

Pentagon: There is suspicion, but no evidence

The Pentagon officials also said they did not see “any solid evidence” of illicit diversion of the US arms supplies sent to Ukraine, while adding, “Nevertheless, we are aware of the possibility of an illicit arms diversion. We are actively taking all available actions to prevent such a thing from happening.”

And the Republican criticisms on the destination of arms sent to Ukraine, also had a major impact, while the case was upon an investigation process. The Minority (Republican) leader in the House of Representatives Kevin McCarty, said in a speech he made in October that Republicans would not hand a “blank check” to Ukraine.

The Tweet McCarty has pinned on his Twitter account on October 8th, is about the Biden family’s relationship with the Ukrainian government:

“Fact: Joe Biden’s family members profited in foreign regions where he had influence as vice president. Hunter Biden sat on the board of a Ukrainian company in an industry in which he had no experience. His only qualification was that his father ran point on US-Ukraine policy.”

Admitting the existence of an arms black market

It is very possible to say that the arms sent to Ukraine could be sold on the black market, and that more “black markets” could emerge where terror groups can acquire advanced weapons, based on some similar experiences in the Middle East. Some of these risks are clearly explained in the “US Plan to Counter Illicit Diversion of Certain Advanced Conventional Weapons in Eastern Europe” issued by the US Department of Defense on October 27th:

“Wars can provide opportunities for weapons to fall into private hands via theft or illicit sales, sometimes creating black markets for arms that endure for decades.  A variety of criminal and non-state actors may attempt to acquire weapons from sources in Ukraine during or following the conflict, as occurred after the Balkans Wars in the 1990s.”

According to the Pentagon plan, some special precautions must be taken especially on small arms, MANPADs and anti-tank missiles. It is quite possible that such weapons could be used in terrorist attacks targeting civilian aircrafts.

 The Pentagon’s preventive “capacity building” plan for Eastern Europe

Reading the Biden administration’s deployment of military advisors and inspectors to Ukraine only as a response to the criticisms from the Republicans and from Russia, is not sufficient enough to fully explain the overall approach of the US government. The Pentagon considers that if the arms thatare described in the plan document fall into the hands of the Russian military, Moscow may use it to “develop countermeasures, spread propaganda or conduct false flag operations.”

The plan to prevent arms diversion is not only limited to Ukraine, according to the Pentagon’s program.  The “action plan” covers three phases: short, medium and long-term, and the construction of a wide network of inspection all across Eastern Europe:

  • “Bolstering the ability of security forces in Ukraine and its neighboring states to account for and safeguard their arms and ammunition during transfer, in storage, and when deployed;
  • Strengthening border management and security in Ukraine and its neighboring states; and
  • Building the capacity of security forces, law enforcement officials, and border control agencies in Ukraine and its neighboring states to deter, detect, and interdict illicit trafficking of certain advanced conventional weapons.”

According to the plan put up in the document, the coordination mechanisms are defined as “Building the capacity of law enforcement officials and analysts in Ukraine and neighboring states to process and share information regarding interdicted or captured weapons”.

“Azov battalions could get out of control”

The Europol agency also warned last summer about the illegal diversion of arms in Ukraine across Europe. On October 27th the EU Commission tasked on the issue, also drafted a new law on the increasing allegations of arms trafficking over the Ukrainian war. The commission noted that the Ukrainian war constitutes a new source for illicit arms trafficking in Europe.

The figures also show the extent of this threat. Since last February, the Pentagon has sent around 10 thousand weapons including missile launchers, and around 64 million ammunitions for small arms to Ukraine.

According to a 2020 Pentagon report, the US has increased its military aid to Kiev to 400 million USD in 2019, from 30 million USD back in 2013. And the total amount of the military supply the Pentagon has sent to Kiev in the last eight months alone has reached 18 billion USD.

Experts consider a military aid of this magnitude to fall into the black market and into the hands of dangerous organizations, as within possibilities.

The US think-tank Responsible Statcraft, points out to the possibility of the course of the war in Ukraine to turn towards strengthening the radical groups, which can form independent paramilitaries with the help of these weapons. According to Jordan Cohen from the Cato Institute, it may get much more difficult for Volodymyr Zelensky to control organizations such as the Azov battalions in the future. Cohen describes the danger by saying, “If he loses control of those groups, then I think you are going to start seeing those groups kind of creating their own military units, and that is dangerous”.

The arms market of Bandidos in Ukraine

Founded in 1966 in Saint Leon TX, the Bandidos Motorcycle Club has a wide network of organizations around the world. This criminal organization is among the leading actors in the transportation of commodities of the arms black market into European heartland. At the end of October, Finnish National Bureau of Investigation announced that weapons of Western origin sent to Ukraine, may have reached the black markets in Finland, through criminal organizations such as the Bandidos. Speaking to Finnish publication Yle, Chief Inspector Christer Ahlgren stated: “Weapons delivered to Ukraine from various countries have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands”. According to Inspector Ahlgren, there are strong indications that these weapons are on their way to Finland.

Inspector Ahlgren says this black market is run by bike gangs:

“The three largest bike gangs in the world, which are all part of a wider international network, are all active in Finland. One of them is the Bandidos Motorcycle Club, which has cells in all major cities of Ukraine”.

Here, a huge gap is opening between Russia and the European Union, as Texan Bandidos and similar criminal organizations and US military inspectors play cat and mouse over Ukrainian soil.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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