According to Citigroup, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause Brent crude oil prices to soar to as high as $90 per barrel. However, the company also argued that a prolonged shutdown of this critical waterway is unlikely.

Analysts, including Anthony Yuen and Eric Lee, referenced the bank’s current optimistic scenario, stating, “The closure of the strait could lead to a sharp increase in prices. However, we believe the process would be brief, not lasting several months, as all efforts would be focused on reopening it.”

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil production, including from leading OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, passes through it.

Citigroup estimates that a disruption could interrupt the flow of about 3 million barrels of oil per day for several months.

According to Citigroup, any interruption in Iran’s crude oil exports might have less of an impact on prices than anticipated. The bank noted that the country’s shipments have already decreased, with Chinese refineries purchasing less.

Brent futures are currently trading at around $77 per barrel.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has begun to reduce employment within the alliance as part of a major restructuring effort.

Rutte, who took office as NATO chief last October, plans to eliminate two divisions at the Brussels headquarters and cut dozens of positions.

“He is basically DOGE-ing NATO,” said an alliance official, referring to the radical downsizing initiative in the US federal government led by Elon Musk earlier this year.

This previously unreported restructuring comes ahead of a critical summit in The Hague, which begins on Tuesday and will be attended by US President Donald Trump, amid widespread concerns that the NATO-skeptic president might one day withdraw from the military alliance.

The reforms are taking place in a complex geopolitical and defense environment, with wars shaking Ukraine and the Middle East, and warnings from the Trump administration that the US may take a backseat in Europe’s security in the future.

When Rutte took over from Jens Stoltenberg after his ten-year tenure last year, he announced in his first speech that there was “work to be done” to improve NATO. “My task is to ensure that our alliance continues to adapt to a more complex world,” he said.

The former Dutch prime minister wasted no time in restructuring the alliance’s bureaucracy.

In recent months, he has held two internal meetings with his staff, announcing a series of changes, including reducing NATO’s international staff divisions from eight to six.

The divisions to be eliminated are the Public Diplomacy Division, which serves as NATO’s press service, and the Executive Management Division, the alliance’s human resources department.

The functions of these divisions will largely be taken over by other departments. However, the assistant secretaries general, who are division heads appointed by the secretary general after consulting with member countries, will no longer continue in their roles, a directly knowledgeable official confirmed to POLITICO.

The Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, Marie-Doha Besancenot of France, left her post in March and has not been replaced. The head of the Executive Management Division, Carlo Borghini of Italy, will also be leaving his position.

Another official told POLITICO that dozens of positions will be eliminated as part of the restructuring, but added that the cuts do not “seem very high” and that new staff will be hired.

“This is something that happens when a new secretary general comes in,” a former senior NATO official told POLITICO about Rutte’s plans to restructure the alliance.

The former senior official said Rutte’s reform is not as reckless as Musk’s infamous Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which resulted in the dismissal of American federal employees with almost no warning and the shutdown of US agencies.

“This is being done by insiders who really understand the priorities, the existing structures, and the processes. That’s why it’s a much more long-term and deliberate process than DOGE,” the official said.

NATO is headquartered in Brussels and employs approximately 4,000 people, including about 1,500 international staff for whom Rutte is responsible.

Most are temporary workers or “temporary staff”—typically younger, junior personnel on short-term, six-month contracts. Two current officials told POLITICO there has been a distinct shift toward reducing the number of temporary positions and making more roles permanent.

“It’s hard to ensure consistency if you go from temporary job to temporary job,” said the former senior NATO official, adding that discussions about high turnover and reducing reliance on short-term staff began before Rutte’s tenure.

“They are incredibly talented and dedicated people, and I hope that because of their experience and the fact that they already have security clearance, they will have the chance to apply for suitable contract positions,” the former official added.

Speaking on behalf of the alliance, a senior NATO official said regarding the staff cuts, “Secretary General Rutte is committed to an effective and efficient NATO,” and “he has initiated a restructuring process to optimize the operations of NATO headquarters.”

“The restructuring process, which has also taken into account the views of the staff and has been approved by the allies, is ongoing,” the official added.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has put his cabinet on alert for a potential US attack on Iran.

British officials describe the situation as “serious and volatile,” while the prime minister’s team has discussed whether Donald Trump will launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities from the joint US-UK airbase on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

So far, the United Kingdom has not been directly involved in the Israeli-Iranian conflict and appears determined to avoid any steps that could lead to the closure of its embassy in Tehran, a key Western diplomatic hub in the Middle East.

According to officials familiar with the discussions who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), Starmer discussed the possibility of a US attack on Iran during a meeting of the Whitehall emergency committee on Wednesday.

The meeting was attended by senior cabinet ministers, military officials, intelligence chiefs, and the US Ambassador, Lord Peter Mandelson.

The prime minister has maintained his call for “de-escalation,” which is the official reason for the UK not offering any support to Israel in defending itself against Iranian air attacks.

On Wednesday evening, Starmer held a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, who has close ties with Iran, to discuss the conflict.

Downing Street stated that Starmer and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani emphasized “the need for de-escalation and diplomacy.”

At the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday, Starmer noted that Trump had said “nothing to indicate he would get involved in this conflict.”

However, British officials later acknowledged that it was unlikely Trump would share his true intentions over dinner with Western leaders and that the White House’s approach to the crisis was an “iterative process.”

The US’s use of the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean for air strikes with B-2 stealth bombers could draw the United Kingdom further into the conflict.

A British official said there was no clear “yes or no” answer as to whether Washington would need London’s approval to use the base for an attack.

However, according to The Times, the US does require the UK’s permission to use the base.

A US military source told the newspaper, “Diego Garcia is under United Kingdom sovereignty. We request permission for any activity related to Diego Garcia.”

The US could also use the UK’s base in Cyprus, where it might be asked to deploy American refueling aircraft.

Last month, the United Kingdom signed a £3.4 billion deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining a 99-year lease on the airbase on Diego Garcia, the largest of the islands.

Israel’s ambassador to London said on Tuesday that London’s defensive support had not been discussed or requested.

This contrasts with last April, when Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter jets shot down Iranian drones fired at Israel. RAF aircraft also provided assistance during Tehran’s missile attack on Israel last October.

The United Kingdom also assisted with US military strikes in Yemen last year.

Britain’s involvement in the current crisis could raise questions about the continued presence of British diplomats in Tehran, where the US does not have an embassy.

A Downing Street spokesperson said after the Whitehall committee meeting, “Ministers were briefed on ongoing diplomatic efforts and efforts to support British nationals in the region and ensure regional security.”

Starmer has repeatedly emphasized “Israel’s right to defend itself” and said Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, but he has avoided stating whether he would support US intervention in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.

Attorney General Lord Hermer has raised concerns about the legality of London’s intervention in the conflict. According to his legal opinion, Britain should limit its involvement to “defensive” support.

However, another government source expressed concern that the UK refusing a US request to conduct bombing raids against Iran would have significant implications for the “special relationship.”

According to The Times, ministers at the meeting discussed various scenarios, including completely withholding support, allowing the use of Diego Garcia, providing logistical support, and a full-scale military intervention. A limited offer of support is seen as the most likely outcome.

No decision has been reached yet, and the government hopes that Trump can be persuaded not to intervene during a brief “window of opportunity” before US military forces are deployed.

The British military is on high alert over fears that troops deployed in the region could be targeted. There are currently 14 Typhoon jets in Cyprus to protect British personnel, and there are concerns that the 100 British soldiers stationed in Baghdad and Erbil could be attacked if the UK is seen to be participating in the conflict.

Theoretically, the Typhoons, flying over Iraq and Syria as part of “Operation Shader” against ISIS, could be used to protect British soldiers from drone attacks or to drop precision-guided Paveway IV bombs on proxy forces.

It is rumored that any US attack on Iran might initially focus on the heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility, which Israel lacks sufficient bombs to destroy.

The US bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating Fordow must be launched from American B-2 stealth bombers. In March, Washington deployed at least six B-2As to Diego Garcia as it increased pressure on Tehran to accept a nuclear deal.

Experts noted that the US could launch B-2 attacks from its main base in Missouri, but the additional distance and need for refueling would make any mission more challenging.

A British government spokesperson said they would “not comment on hypothetical operations.”

Meanwhile, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced that family members of British embassy and consulate staff in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem have been “temporarily withdrawn as a precautionary measure.”

This decision contradicts the FCDO’s current advice, which instructs British citizens in Israel to register with the British embassy or consulate but does not tell them to leave the country.

British officials stated that the number of people who have registered for advice and other consular assistance is in the “thousands,” most of whom are dual British-Israeli citizens.

The FCDO has reported that it is still possible to leave the country using commercial land routes through Egypt or Jordan, but it has advised British citizens not to attempt to exit Israel.

A Number 10 spokesperson said, “Our key message to British nationals is to follow the advice of local authorities, stay near shelters, and register their presence with the FCDO.”