A report titled The Future of the World Order, presented at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), emphasized that the world is undergoing a deep and prolonged crisis, fundamentally altering the existing order.

Experts noted that while risks like climate change were previously at the forefront, the agenda for the past two years has been dominated by wars, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts, which have reached a new dimension due to the actions of the US.

Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist at VEB, stated during a session titled “The Future of the World Order: Between Conflict and Cooperation,” “It is a well-known fact that the world is in a crisis. The real question is how long this crisis has been going on and how much longer it will last.”

Boris Titov, the Presidential Special Representative for Relations with International Organizations to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals, described the current situation not as a tactical crisis like the one in 2014–2015, but as a global one. “In our view, we are witnessing a change of an era, a global transformation of the development model,” he remarked.

The new face of crisis: War and geopolitical risks

Chief Economist Klepach highlighted that 2024 has seen the most intense military conflicts of the last 60 years, adding that 2025 is likely to be similar. He also pointed out that alongside global issues, problems directly affecting human health, such as clean water scarcity and air and food pollution, have become prominent.

“What is happening in the world, particularly in African and Asian countries, is a truly massive challenge. These are issues of social paralysis, poverty, migration, food security, and demographics,” Klepach added.

He noted that the number of people suffering from hunger worldwide began to rise again after 2020, and the coronavirus pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of healthcare systems.

Klepach stressed that the report’s purpose is not merely to list problems but also to identify “windows of opportunity and the need for solutions.” The report seeks ways to establish a new system of international security and trust, new international economic relations, and technological partnerships.

‘The business world has adapted to sanctions’

Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), mentioned that over 200 company representatives were interviewed during the report’s preparation, and most of them look to the future with confidence.

According to Shokhin, the business community has grown accustomed to the pressure of sanctions and tight monetary policy. He said that entrepreneurs have weathered many crises, and every crisis presents an opportunity for growth.

The report identifies the instability of the global financial system as the most significant challenge for companies. Shokhin recalled that the Russian business community faced restrictions on cross-border payments in 2022 and noted that various tools have been developed to overcome this problem.

He argued that the failure to create the “BRICS Pay” platform during Russia’s BRICS presidency was not a defeat.

Shokhin asserted that globalization continues to exist, albeit in an “imperialist” rather than a liberal form. “Leading countries decide for themselves how to control markets and spheres of influence,” he said.

The struggle for hierarchy in a multipolar order

Dmitry Belousov from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TsMAKP) stated that Russia is facing fundamental restrictions. He noted that while the country successfully navigated the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions amounting to an economic war, it now confronts the challenge of a stagnant workforce.

Belousov highlighted Russia’s effectiveness in collaboration, citing “the African” Pushkin and “the Dane” Dal as examples.

Fyodor Voytolovsky, Director of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, argued that the emerging multipolar world order is, in many ways, suitable for Russia as a global player.

“However, we must understand that this is not a flat structure. A struggle for the hierarchy of this multipolar world order is currently underway at both global and regional levels,” Voytolovsky said.

According to Voytolovsky, there are trends toward establishing new models of mutual dependence on one hand, while on the other, established actors, particularly the US and its allies, are making a concerted effort to maintain and strengthen their positions. He also added that countries like China and India are competing for status in this new model.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has alleged that Ukraine, with support from the United Kingdom, is preparing to stage a series of provocations in the Baltic Sea, intending to frame them as sabotage by Russian intelligence agencies.

A statement from the SVR indicated that the ultimate goal of this plan is to disrupt potential peace negotiations between Russia and the United States regarding a settlement in Ukraine.

False flag attack scenario with a ‘Russian torpedo’

According to the SVR’s statement, the initial scenario planned by the UK and Ukraine involves an attack on a US Navy vessel using “so-called Russian torpedoes.” It is claimed that these torpedoes have already been delivered by the British to Kyiv.

The SVR shared the following details about the plan: “The plan involves detonating some of the torpedoes at a ‘safe distance’ from the American ship, while one is intentionally left unexploded to be presented to the public as evidence of Russia’s ‘malicious activities’.”

Naval mines also in play

The SVR also stated that Ukraine, “in collaboration with accomplices in northern European countries,” plans to “discover” supposedly Russian-made anchored mines in the Baltic Sea.

According to the SVR, under the Anglo-Ukrainian scenario, these mines will be portrayed as having been laid by Russia to sabotage an international shipping lane.

Aiming to escalate the conflict

The statement released by the SVR asserted that the purpose of these provocations is to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and encourage Washington to continue providing military aid to Kyiv.

The intelligence agency argued that this situation is driven by the weakening positions of the Ukrainian army on the front lines and the “moral fatigue” of Ukrainian society.

In February, the SVR made a similar claim, reporting that Ukrainian military intelligence was preparing terrorist attacks against Russian opposition figures and businesspeople living abroad.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved the final version of a strategy that will shape the development of the Russian Federation’s Navy until 2050.

In an interview with the newspaper Argumenty i Fakty, Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia and Chairman of the Russian Maritime Board, stated, “The decision to prepare the strategy was made at a meeting in the Kremlin last July. On the president’s instructions, the Ministry of Defense prepared a draft, which was later developed by the Russian Maritime Board, taking into account the proposals of federal agencies and organizations. The final version of the strategy was submitted to the president for review and was approved on May 30.”

Patrushev noted that this development once again highlights that building a powerful and modern navy is among the priority tasks for the Russian state.

‘A first in modern history’

Highlighting the significance of the strategy, Patrushev remarked, “Without going into details, let me say that this is the first time such a strategic planning document has been adopted in modern history. Russia’s position as one of the world’s greatest naval powers is gradually being restored. It is impossible to carry out such work without a long-term vision of the development scenarios in the World Ocean, the evolution of challenges and threats, and, of course, without defining the goals and tasks facing the Russian Navy.”

‘Special military operation’ experience considered

Patrushev explained that the strategy analyzes the development of the global military-political situation, the likelihood and nature of potential armed conflicts, and the capabilities of leading naval powers. He also noted that the current state and capabilities of the Navy were assessed, including the experience gained from the “special military operation.”

Patrushev concluded, “The fundamental requirements for the future combat structure of the Navy, its main tasks in peacetime and wartime, and the mechanisms for shaping the future outlook of the Naval Forces have been formulated. In short, a significant long-term document has been adopted that answers the question of what Russia’s naval power should be to effectively defend our country’s interests in the World Ocean.”