Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced on Thursday, 2 December, that the coalition government would discuss retaliatory measures against Ukraine for halting the flow of Russian gas through its territory to Slovakia.

In a video message posted on Facebook, Fico stated that the Smer party would consider cutting off electricity supplies to Ukraine, reducing aid to Ukrainian refugees, and demanding the restoration of gas transits or compensation for losses Slovakia claims to have suffered due to the cessation of Russian gas flows.

Russian gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine ceased on New Year’s Day when the transit contract between Russia and Ukraine expired, marking the end of Moscow’s decades-long dominance of European energy markets.

Slovakia has alternative sources of gas, but Fico emphasized that the country would lose its transit revenues and incur additional transit fees to import non-Russian gas. He also warned that gas and electricity prices in Europe would rise as a result of Ukraine’s actions.

Fico announced that a Slovak delegation would discuss the situation in Brussels next Tuesday, after which his ruling coalition would consider retaliating against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s actions, which he labeled as ‘sabotage’.

‘I declare that (my Smer-SSD party) is ready to discuss and agree in the coalition on the issues of stopping the supply of electricity and significantly reducing support for Ukrainian citizens in Slovakia,’ Fico stated.

The Slovak leader argued that the only alternative for a ‘sovereign Slovakia’ was to demand the restoration of transit or mechanisms to compensate for the loss of around 500 million euros in public finances.

Last week, Zelensky accused Fico of opening ‘a second energy front against Ukraine at Russia’s behest’.

Slovakia’s majority state-owned gas transit network operator, Eustream, reported revenues of €158 million and an after-tax profit of €25 million in the six months to 31 January, the latest period reported on its website.

State-owned Slovak gas importer SPP, which supplies about two-thirds of Slovak demand, stated on Wednesday that replacing all Russian gas this year would result in additional costs of about 90 million euros, mainly due to transit fees.

Slovakia, which borders Ukraine to the east, exported 2.4 million megawatt hours of electricity in the first 11 months of 2024 to Ukraine, which has been suffering from electricity shortages due to Russian bombardment, according to data from the Slovak grid operator.

Fico, who visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 22 December, said last week that Slovakia would consider reciprocal measures against Ukraine, such as halting back-up electricity supplies, if Kyiv stops gas transit from 1 January.

A submarine power cable connecting Finland and Estonia was damaged on Wednesday, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced. This marks the latest in a series of incidents involving submarine cables and energy pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

Arto Pahkin, operations manager for Finland’s electricity grid, informed public broadcaster Yle that the possibility of sabotage could not be excluded. However, Orpo assured that Finland’s electricity supply was unaffected by the blackout. “The authorities remain vigilant even at Christmas and are investigating the situation,” he wrote.

The energy operator Fingrid reported that the flow of electricity through the EstLink 2 cable, which transmits power to Estonia, was disrupted at 12:26 local time (13:26 TSI). This event follows a similar pattern of recent disruptions in the Baltic Sea.

Last month, two telecommunications cables linking Sweden and Denmark in the Baltic Sea were severed. Suspicion quickly fell on the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3, which monitoring websites indicated was near the cables at the time of the damage. Despite these suspicions, Sweden announced last Monday that Chinese authorities declined a request by Swedish prosecutors to investigate the vessel, which has since left the area.

Earlier incidents include the damage to the Arelion cable, running from the Swedish island of Gotland to Lithuania, on November 17, and the severing of the C-Lion 1 cable, which connects Helsinki to the German port of Rostock, on November 18 south of the Swedish island of Öland.

European authorities have suggested that these incidents may be acts of sabotage connected to the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin has dismissed these allegations, labeling them as “absurd” and “ridiculous.”

German companies, which form the backbone of the German economy and dominate 95% of the global export market in their respective niches, have outlined their expectations for 2025.

The so-called Mittelstand companies, often referred to as “family enterprises” rather than traditional SMEs, have voiced concerns about the anticipated rise in protectionism by 2025. They urged policymakers to adopt a pragmatic approach when negotiating free trade agreements.

A survey conducted exclusively for WirtschaftsWoche by the business associations Die Familienunternehmer and Die Jungen Unternehmer reveals that few expect a resurgence of free trade. Instead, over 75% of respondents fear the continued expansion of global protectionism by 2025.

In this context, approximately 820 business leaders surveyed in October called for greater pragmatism in European trade policies. A majority advised that the signing of new European free trade agreements should not be conditional on compliance with stringent environmental or social standards in partner countries. Only 31% of respondents supported such conditions.

“Increasing protectionism poses a significant threat to Germany’s position as an export powerhouse,” cautioned Marie-Christine Ostermann, President of the Association of Family Businesses. She added, “Eliminating non-tariff trade barriers simplifies bureaucracy, delivering a cost-free boost to growth. The German government must actively support this.” Ostermann emphasized that free trade agreements not only reduce tariffs but also create new jobs, thereby promoting widespread economic growth.

Open markets, she explained, are essential for ensuring economic stability, not just in Germany or Europe, but globally.

On a cautionary note, Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization (WTO), warned of a “new narrative of globalisation.” He observed that many citizens and policymakers increasingly view trade as a contributor to inequality and environmental degradation rather than a solution. Consequently, Ossa does not foresee improvements in globalisation in the near future, as the global economy remains at a crossroads where key trade policy decisions will have profound impacts.

A recent study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that global trade will reach a record level of nearly $33 trillion USD by 2024, driven primarily by a 7% growth in the services sector. However, UNCTAD’s outlook for 2025 is less optimistic, warning of potential trade wars and escalating geopolitical tensions.