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‘Arab world’ without Syria on horizontal course

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There are major leading shares in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Such as Turkish Airlines and Ereğli Demir Çelik. If these stocks gain value and move upwards, all shares will be affected positively. In market terms, it becomes “green”. It may be useful to use this analogy while watching the course of the Middle East. The positive or negative movements of certain countries determine whether the field will be “blood red” or “spring green”.

Syria’s inability to attend the Arab League summit in Algeria on 1-2 November under the pump of USA, the Gulf and Israel, shows that balances are difficult to change from red to green. If the intense effort of Algeria towards the return of Damascus to the Arab League had not been fruitless, we could have easily interpreted that the green light was given for lasting peace in the Middle East. Resistance to Syria’s return to the Arab League also proves the stubbornness of conflict dynamics in the region.

Is the Middle East diplomacy over?

Syrian expansion was a complementary and follow-up chain of Turkiye’s efforts over the last two years to re-establish relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Damascus responded to the close messages from Turkiye coming from superior rank by highlighting the condition of “withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria”. Early negotiations by intelligence to establish diplomatic relations have also failed. According to a source from the Baas Party in Syria, Damascus’s view is as follows: “The war has been going on for over ten years. Syria is in no hurry, Damascus does not want to give credit to the Erdogan administration during the election process. Turkiye needs to take confidence-building steps to re-establish relations. ”

Turkiye’s adopting a different from Davutoglu’s towards the Middle East was of course welcomed in Arab capitals. However, all parties agree that the restoration will take time according to the new situation, as relations do not stay where they are broken down. For example, it seems that the process initiated with Egypt decelerated as Cairo slowed down.  Egyptian diplomats have “perseverance of a camel” as a friend of mine who was orient to the region says, and Cairo is waiting for the right time to sit at the table at its best.

In summary, Ankara’s attempt to reconcile alone is not enough to repair the bonds from where they were torn. The most concrete parameter of the “process” that needs to pass for building trust is the elections. The capitals in which Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh and Ankara had problems in the days of “precious loneliness” want to see the results”.

Is the United States leaving the region?

It is reported that the main arm wrestling will be in Asia-Pacific and that the United States will keep its hands off the Middle East and focus more on besieging China since the Obama era. However, this does not mean that the United States, which has reduced its military power in the region, has totally disappeared from the Middle East. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the environmental agenda spread over time, and views that trivialized fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas were put aside.

Controlling and managing the world’s oil supply remains important for the continuation of the global leadership claim for Washington. The Middle East will continue to dominate Washington as a field of competition with oil and gas producer Russia and largest energy importer China. It is also possible to read the oil supply quarrel between Saudi Arabia abd United States, Riyadh’s slow-pace approach to Beijing and its including BRICS membership to its agenda.

Although the US’s capacity to set up games and determine the outcome has decreased in the Middle East, its ability to prevent and create chaos remains as it is. With a small number of forces, it continues to occupy one-third of Syrian territory. “Land power” is the Pentagon’s defined goal of legalizing the YPG and making it a voice in the future of Syria. This account has been blocked for the time being with the actual intervention of the TAF and the active struggle of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces. The United States’ continued suppression of Syria’s return to the Arab League is also behind its failure to get the YPG to accept Damascus.

Israeli radar also shows Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s renewed embrace with Hamas. Damascus is not compromising its “axis of resistance” policy. He is aware that the cost of his stance has delayed his official return to the Arab world. The new page with Hamas proves its effectiveness in the field, even though Damascus could not return to the Arab League at the risk of the US and Israel’s reaction.

At the end of January, the patrol of Russian planes and Syrian planes over the Golan was a serious warning to Israel. Tel Aviv, which received the message, did not give its sophisticated air defense weapons to Kiev despite all the pressure. The international environment for the normalization of Syria has not yet become stable.

Wait and see period

When we think of Turkiye by leaving it out, it can be said that there is a “wait and see” situation among the Arab states about Syria. The reason why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates have still not approved the return of Syria to the Arab League is mostly the uncertainty and concerns in global security situation.

The Arab world has difficult tasks such as predicting the next president of the United States, making an accurate analysis of what might happen in that process, and identifying the side that will win in the Russia-Ukraine war without error. A miscalculation in these matters may cause the gremlins that are merely held in the bottle to escape into the streets.

Covid-19, the risk of economic recession, the potential of terrorist cells, forces Arab states to think a lot before taking actions. It is also unrealistic to expect Egypt, whose economy is fragile and difficult to solve the bread problem, to behave without taking care of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which has lagged behind while taking steps in diplomacy. The art of the period is to walk in balance. Cairo also has to make a new page with Damascus, at least in front of the cameras, without excluding Riyadh and the Gulf. Although the Saudi Intelligence Chief came to Damascus last May to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it is not so easy to repair a broken vase.

Russia’s efforts to turn Syria into the Arab League have also failed as the Ukrainian war remains uncertain. Russia increased its weight in the Middle East with its involvement in Syria in 2015. This weight is now being measured again in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s success or failure on the Ukrainian front is carefully monitored in the region’s capitals. Recently, my Russian interlocutor, who has been in the Middle East for many years, asked the question “What is Russia’s post-Ukraine Syria strategy?” and said: “There is nothing new. Ukraine is a priority, not Syria. Right now, everything is about Ukraine, and the Syrian strategy is about Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine will directly affect the Middle East. ”

The main difference between the central states that want to stay in balance between Russia and the West without choosing in the Arab League and the states that prefer strategic cooperation with Russia and the West, such as Sudan and Syria, is one of the most important reasons of fractions. Relations with Israel, the outlook on Abraham’s agreements, and relations with Iran can be listed as major issues of disagreement. The Arab League, which has not been an effective sanction force since its inception, does not expect a summit to melt the separated state interests in one general Arab pot and stand out as an effective organization. It is an idea that pushes the boundaries of real politics to gather the generations of states stretching from Morocco and Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to the Persian Gulf around a single ideal and to establish an “Arab Turan”. Arab states will stand side by side but direct their actions with different geopolitical and political pressures.

From where we started, the Arab world, which is unable to heartily embrace Syria, is “on a horizontal course” in market terms. Efforts are being made to prevent the pointer from turning red again, as in the Arab Spring period.

Middle East

US to launch major bombing campaign against Iran this weekend, Hersh reports

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Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, citing Israeli sources and American officials he has trusted for decades, has claimed that the United States will launch a heavy bombing campaign against Iran this weekend.

Hersh stated that the plan aims to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and overthrow the Ayatollah-led government in Tehran.

“This is a heads-up on what is likely to happen in Iran, possibly as early as this weekend,” Hersh wrote.

The journalist confirmed the information with a long-serving US official in Washington, who reportedly said that everything would be “under control” if Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were to “step down.”

“It is not known how this could happen short of an assassination,” Hersh commented.

The goal is to overthrow Khamenei

According to Hersh, the Trump administration fully supports Israel’s plan to rid Iran of any trace of its nuclear weapons program. The report noted that American and Israeli planners never considered bringing back the Shah’s son, who is currently living in exile near Washington.

However, Hersh wrote that there were discussions within the White House planning group about installing a moderate religious leader to govern the country if Khamenei were overthrown.

“The Israelis were vehemently opposed to this idea,” Hersh noted, quoting the US official he spoke with:

“They don’t care about the religious issue, but they demand a political puppet they can control. We are divided with the Izzies (Israelis) on this. The result would be permanent hostility and a conflict that would last forever. Bibi (Netanyahu) is desperately trying to draw the US in as his ally against all Muslims, using the plight of his citizens as propaganda fodder.”

New targets: Revolutionary Guards and police stations

Hersh indicated that the planned bombing would have new targets, including bases of the Revolutionary Guards, who have countered those campaigning against the revolutionary leadership since the Shah’s overthrow in early 1979.

“The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hopes the bombing will provide ‘a means to create an uprising’ against Iran’s current regime,” Hersh said.

According to the report, Iranian police stations and government buildings containing files on suspected dissidents in Iran will also be attacked.

The ultimate target: The Fordo nuclear facility

Seymour Hersh stated that the White House has approved an all-out bombing campaign in Iran, but the ultimate target—the centrifuges located at least 80 meters underground at the Fordo facility—will not be hit this weekend.

Hersh wrote that this delay was at Trump’s insistence, as the president wanted the shock of the bombing to be minimized as much as possible by the time the Wall Street stock market opened on Monday.

Hersh also added that Trump had objected on social media this morning to a Wall Street Journal report claiming he had decided to attack Iran, writing that he had not yet decided on a path forward.

Hersh noted that the Fordo facility houses the majority of Iran’s most advanced centrifuges. According to recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, these centrifuges have produced 900 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% purity, just a short step away from weapons-grade levels.

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Asia

Iran-Israel war: Why US discusses regional conflict with Pakistan

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US President Donald Trump and Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir held a special and important meeting during a time when tensions are rising in the Asian region. The meeting was held on Trump’s invitation and was not open to the media. However, both sides have released official statements afterward, which states that the main topics were discussed

The meeting focused on the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Pakistan–India relations, especially the Kashmir issue, the situation in Afghanistan and future US–Pakistan cooperation.

Pakistan has recently improved its strategic position in the region. It has shown strong ties with China and is the only South Asian country openly supporting Iran in its conflict with Israel. Meanwhile, Pakistan remains an important player in Afghanistan.

Why the Pakistani Army Chief was invited to the US?

Although Pakistan has an elected civilian government, important decisions—especially related to foreign affairs and security—are often handled by the military. That’s why General Asim Munir was invited to meet Trump instead of the Prime Minister, General Munir’s influence has grown recently. After tensions with India, he was given the title of Field Marshal. His meeting with Trump is seen as a sign of his importance in both Pakistani and international politics.

According to the Pakistan Army’s media wing (ISPR): General Munir thanked President Trump for helping to ease recent tensions between Pakistan and India. Trump praised Pakistan’s role in fighting terrorism. Both agreed to work together in the future, especially in: Trade, Technology Minerals and energy Artificial intelligence Crypto currency and regional peace efforts as well.

President Trump also appreciated General Munir’s leadership during difficult times. Munir invited Trump to visit Pakistan, and Trump reportedly accepted the offer in principle.

Why US former peace envoy to Afghanistan, Khalilzad is not trusting Pakistan’s army chief

Former U.S. diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad criticized the meeting. He said General Munir cannot be trusted and reminded the U.S. that Pakistan has supported groups that harmed American soldiers in the past. According to Khalilzad, General Munir may be trying to get U.S. support for his interests in Afghanistan, which he believes could be risky for America.

Though no official list of US demands was made public, reports suggest a meeting was held in Saudi Arabia earlier, where American officials spoke with top Pakistani leaders. During that meeting, the U.S. reportedly made four key requests:  Pakistan should help the U.S. in counterterrorism operations when needed. Pakistan should slowly reduce its relations with China. Pakistan should recognize Israel after Saudi Arabia does. If the U.S. attacks Iran, Pakistan should support the U.S. instead of staying neutral.

These demands are similar to earlier U.S.–Pakistan arrangements during the Cold War and the War on Terror.

What could be expected in the future?

This meeting could mark the beginning of a new phase in US–Pakistan relations. In the past, Pakistan helped the U.S. during the Soviet-Afghan War and after 9/11. Now, with tensions involving Iran, India, and Afghanistan—and China expanding its role—the U.S. may again be looking to Pakistan as a key partner in the region.

Time will tell whether this leads to a long-term partnership or just another temporary agreement based on short-term goals.

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Middle East

Iran retaliates with missile barrage after Israel strikes Arak nuclear facility

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Israel’s overnight attacks targeted the Arak nuclear facility, prompting a severe retaliatory response from Iran. Missiles fired at Tel Aviv and Beersheba were aimed at the Israeli army’s command and intelligence headquarters. Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered an escalation of attacks against Iran.

The week-long escalating tension between Israel and Iran reached a new level on Thursday morning with mutual attacks. The Israeli army announced it had conducted airstrikes on several targets in Iran, including the Arak nuclear facility. In retaliation, Iran launched nearly 30 missiles at various regions, primarily targeting Tel Aviv and the southern city of Beersheba.

The Israeli army confirmed it had attacked Iran’s Arak Heavy Water Nuclear Facility (Shahid Khandab Research Reactor) last night. Military officials claimed the facility housed equipment that could accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

However, a written statement from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran’s Information Center stated, “There were no casualties or injuries in the attack. Thanks to pre-emptive security measures, there is no risk or harm to the public in the area surrounding the facility.” Iranian state television also reported that there was no nuclear leakage at the site.

Retaliation at first light

Iran’s retaliation for these attacks came in the morning. More than 20 missiles fired from Iran directly hit several locations around the capital, Tel Aviv, and in the southern Negev region.

Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that air defense systems were attempting to intercept the missiles launched from Iran. The report noted that over 20 missiles were fired, striking at least four locations in the country’s central and southern regions.

In the central region, missiles reportedly struck buildings directly in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, and Holon. In the south, a missile aimed at Beersheba was alleged to have hit Soroka Hospital.

Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency service stated that they received reports of direct hits during the attacks around 7:10 AM and had dispatched teams to the areas. A written statement from Magen David Adom reported that 65 people were injured in Iran’s morning retaliatory missile strike, with three in serious condition. The statement added that two others were moderately injured, while the rest sustained injuries from shrapnel, the blast’s impact, or while running to shelters.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army estimated that Iran had fired around 30 missiles in its morning retaliation.

A statement from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleged that Iranian missiles had struck Soroka Hospital in the southern city of Beersheba. It is known that Israeli soldiers wounded in Gaza are treated at Soroka Hospital.

According to a report by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency, which is close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s retaliatory attack this morning targeted the Israeli army’s command and intelligence headquarters. The report claimed that Israeli media was attempting to portray the location as a “hospital,” but the actual targets were the Israel Defense Forces’ command and intelligence (IDF C4I) headquarters next to the hospital and an army intelligence camp in the Gav-Yam Technology Park. The report also stated that the targeted structures housed thousands of military personnel, digital command systems, and cyber operations systems belonging to the Israeli army.

Furthermore, according to Lebanon-based Al Mayadeen, Soroka Hospital, located between two military bases, was evacuated following the attack due to a suspected hazardous material leak.

Netanyahu orders an ‘increase in attacks’

Following Iran’s morning retaliation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli army to intensify its attacks on Iran. In a written statement, Netanyahu threatened that Iranian officials would “pay a price.”

Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also asserted on his social media account that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would “pay the price” for the morning’s retaliation.

In his first televised address since Friday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defied President Trump’s call for Iran’s surrender. “Any US military intervention will cause absolutely irreversible damage,” he said, adding, “The Iranian people will not surrender.”

While Iran’s retaliation was underway, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, visited a missile base belonging to the IRGC Aerospace Force. “We will continue our attacks relentlessly against all types of targets belonging to the Zionist occupying regime. We see no obstacles before us,” Mousavi declared.

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