There are major leading shares in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Such as Turkish Airlines and Ereğli Demir Çelik. If these stocks gain value and move upwards, all shares will be affected positively. In market terms, it becomes “green”. It may be useful to use this analogy while watching the course of the Middle East. The positive or negative movements of certain countries determine whether the field will be “blood red” or “spring green”.

Syria’s inability to attend the Arab League summit in Algeria on 1-2 November under the pump of USA, the Gulf and Israel, shows that balances are difficult to change from red to green. If the intense effort of Algeria towards the return of Damascus to the Arab League had not been fruitless, we could have easily interpreted that the green light was given for lasting peace in the Middle East. Resistance to Syria’s return to the Arab League also proves the stubbornness of conflict dynamics in the region.

Is the Middle East diplomacy over?

Syrian expansion was a complementary and follow-up chain of Turkiye’s efforts over the last two years to re-establish relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Damascus responded to the close messages from Turkiye coming from superior rank by highlighting the condition of “withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria”. Early negotiations by intelligence to establish diplomatic relations have also failed. According to a source from the Baas Party in Syria, Damascus’s view is as follows: “The war has been going on for over ten years. Syria is in no hurry, Damascus does not want to give credit to the Erdogan administration during the election process. Turkiye needs to take confidence-building steps to re-establish relations. ”

Turkiye’s adopting a different from Davutoglu’s towards the Middle East was of course welcomed in Arab capitals. However, all parties agree that the restoration will take time according to the new situation, as relations do not stay where they are broken down. For example, it seems that the process initiated with Egypt decelerated as Cairo slowed down.  Egyptian diplomats have “perseverance of a camel” as a friend of mine who was orient to the region says, and Cairo is waiting for the right time to sit at the table at its best.

In summary, Ankara’s attempt to reconcile alone is not enough to repair the bonds from where they were torn. The most concrete parameter of the “process” that needs to pass for building trust is the elections. The capitals in which Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh and Ankara had problems in the days of “precious loneliness” want to see the results”.

Is the United States leaving the region?

It is reported that the main arm wrestling will be in Asia-Pacific and that the United States will keep its hands off the Middle East and focus more on besieging China since the Obama era. However, this does not mean that the United States, which has reduced its military power in the region, has totally disappeared from the Middle East. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the environmental agenda spread over time, and views that trivialized fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas were put aside.

Controlling and managing the world’s oil supply remains important for the continuation of the global leadership claim for Washington. The Middle East will continue to dominate Washington as a field of competition with oil and gas producer Russia and largest energy importer China. It is also possible to read the oil supply quarrel between Saudi Arabia abd United States, Riyadh’s slow-pace approach to Beijing and its including BRICS membership to its agenda.

Although the US’s capacity to set up games and determine the outcome has decreased in the Middle East, its ability to prevent and create chaos remains as it is. With a small number of forces, it continues to occupy one-third of Syrian territory. “Land power” is the Pentagon’s defined goal of legalizing the YPG and making it a voice in the future of Syria. This account has been blocked for the time being with the actual intervention of the TAF and the active struggle of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces. The United States’ continued suppression of Syria’s return to the Arab League is also behind its failure to get the YPG to accept Damascus.

Israeli radar also shows Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s renewed embrace with Hamas. Damascus is not compromising its “axis of resistance” policy. He is aware that the cost of his stance has delayed his official return to the Arab world. The new page with Hamas proves its effectiveness in the field, even though Damascus could not return to the Arab League at the risk of the US and Israel’s reaction.

At the end of January, the patrol of Russian planes and Syrian planes over the Golan was a serious warning to Israel. Tel Aviv, which received the message, did not give its sophisticated air defense weapons to Kiev despite all the pressure. The international environment for the normalization of Syria has not yet become stable.

Wait and see period

When we think of Turkiye by leaving it out, it can be said that there is a “wait and see” situation among the Arab states about Syria. The reason why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates have still not approved the return of Syria to the Arab League is mostly the uncertainty and concerns in global security situation.

The Arab world has difficult tasks such as predicting the next president of the United States, making an accurate analysis of what might happen in that process, and identifying the side that will win in the Russia-Ukraine war without error. A miscalculation in these matters may cause the gremlins that are merely held in the bottle to escape into the streets.

Covid-19, the risk of economic recession, the potential of terrorist cells, forces Arab states to think a lot before taking actions. It is also unrealistic to expect Egypt, whose economy is fragile and difficult to solve the bread problem, to behave without taking care of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which has lagged behind while taking steps in diplomacy. The art of the period is to walk in balance. Cairo also has to make a new page with Damascus, at least in front of the cameras, without excluding Riyadh and the Gulf. Although the Saudi Intelligence Chief came to Damascus last May to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it is not so easy to repair a broken vase.

Russia’s efforts to turn Syria into the Arab League have also failed as the Ukrainian war remains uncertain. Russia increased its weight in the Middle East with its involvement in Syria in 2015. This weight is now being measured again in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s success or failure on the Ukrainian front is carefully monitored in the region’s capitals. Recently, my Russian interlocutor, who has been in the Middle East for many years, asked the question “What is Russia’s post-Ukraine Syria strategy?” and said: “There is nothing new. Ukraine is a priority, not Syria. Right now, everything is about Ukraine, and the Syrian strategy is about Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine will directly affect the Middle East. ”

The main difference between the central states that want to stay in balance between Russia and the West without choosing in the Arab League and the states that prefer strategic cooperation with Russia and the West, such as Sudan and Syria, is one of the most important reasons of fractions. Relations with Israel, the outlook on Abraham’s agreements, and relations with Iran can be listed as major issues of disagreement. The Arab League, which has not been an effective sanction force since its inception, does not expect a summit to melt the separated state interests in one general Arab pot and stand out as an effective organization. It is an idea that pushes the boundaries of real politics to gather the generations of states stretching from Morocco and Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to the Persian Gulf around a single ideal and to establish an “Arab Turan”. Arab states will stand side by side but direct their actions with different geopolitical and political pressures.

From where we started, the Arab world, which is unable to heartily embrace Syria, is “on a horizontal course” in market terms. Efforts are being made to prevent the pointer from turning red again, as in the Arab Spring period.