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MIDDLE EAST

‘Arab world’ without Syria on horizontal course

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There are major leading shares in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Such as Turkish Airlines and Ereğli Demir Çelik. If these stocks gain value and move upwards, all shares will be affected positively. In market terms, it becomes “green”. It may be useful to use this analogy while watching the course of the Middle East. The positive or negative movements of certain countries determine whether the field will be “blood red” or “spring green”.

Syria’s inability to attend the Arab League summit in Algeria on 1-2 November under the pump of USA, the Gulf and Israel, shows that balances are difficult to change from red to green. If the intense effort of Algeria towards the return of Damascus to the Arab League had not been fruitless, we could have easily interpreted that the green light was given for lasting peace in the Middle East. Resistance to Syria’s return to the Arab League also proves the stubbornness of conflict dynamics in the region.

Is the Middle East diplomacy over?

Syrian expansion was a complementary and follow-up chain of Turkiye’s efforts over the last two years to re-establish relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Damascus responded to the close messages from Turkiye coming from superior rank by highlighting the condition of “withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria”. Early negotiations by intelligence to establish diplomatic relations have also failed. According to a source from the Baas Party in Syria, Damascus’s view is as follows: “The war has been going on for over ten years. Syria is in no hurry, Damascus does not want to give credit to the Erdogan administration during the election process. Turkiye needs to take confidence-building steps to re-establish relations. ”

Turkiye’s adopting a different from Davutoglu’s towards the Middle East was of course welcomed in Arab capitals. However, all parties agree that the restoration will take time according to the new situation, as relations do not stay where they are broken down. For example, it seems that the process initiated with Egypt decelerated as Cairo slowed down.  Egyptian diplomats have “perseverance of a camel” as a friend of mine who was orient to the region says, and Cairo is waiting for the right time to sit at the table at its best.

In summary, Ankara’s attempt to reconcile alone is not enough to repair the bonds from where they were torn. The most concrete parameter of the “process” that needs to pass for building trust is the elections. The capitals in which Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh and Ankara had problems in the days of “precious loneliness” want to see the results”.

Is the United States leaving the region?

It is reported that the main arm wrestling will be in Asia-Pacific and that the United States will keep its hands off the Middle East and focus more on besieging China since the Obama era. However, this does not mean that the United States, which has reduced its military power in the region, has totally disappeared from the Middle East. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the environmental agenda spread over time, and views that trivialized fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas were put aside.

Controlling and managing the world’s oil supply remains important for the continuation of the global leadership claim for Washington. The Middle East will continue to dominate Washington as a field of competition with oil and gas producer Russia and largest energy importer China. It is also possible to read the oil supply quarrel between Saudi Arabia abd United States, Riyadh’s slow-pace approach to Beijing and its including BRICS membership to its agenda.

Although the US’s capacity to set up games and determine the outcome has decreased in the Middle East, its ability to prevent and create chaos remains as it is. With a small number of forces, it continues to occupy one-third of Syrian territory. “Land power” is the Pentagon’s defined goal of legalizing the YPG and making it a voice in the future of Syria. This account has been blocked for the time being with the actual intervention of the TAF and the active struggle of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces. The United States’ continued suppression of Syria’s return to the Arab League is also behind its failure to get the YPG to accept Damascus.

Israeli radar also shows Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s renewed embrace with Hamas. Damascus is not compromising its “axis of resistance” policy. He is aware that the cost of his stance has delayed his official return to the Arab world. The new page with Hamas proves its effectiveness in the field, even though Damascus could not return to the Arab League at the risk of the US and Israel’s reaction.

At the end of January, the patrol of Russian planes and Syrian planes over the Golan was a serious warning to Israel. Tel Aviv, which received the message, did not give its sophisticated air defense weapons to Kiev despite all the pressure. The international environment for the normalization of Syria has not yet become stable.

Wait and see period

When we think of Turkiye by leaving it out, it can be said that there is a “wait and see” situation among the Arab states about Syria. The reason why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates have still not approved the return of Syria to the Arab League is mostly the uncertainty and concerns in global security situation.

The Arab world has difficult tasks such as predicting the next president of the United States, making an accurate analysis of what might happen in that process, and identifying the side that will win in the Russia-Ukraine war without error. A miscalculation in these matters may cause the gremlins that are merely held in the bottle to escape into the streets.

Covid-19, the risk of economic recession, the potential of terrorist cells, forces Arab states to think a lot before taking actions. It is also unrealistic to expect Egypt, whose economy is fragile and difficult to solve the bread problem, to behave without taking care of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which has lagged behind while taking steps in diplomacy. The art of the period is to walk in balance. Cairo also has to make a new page with Damascus, at least in front of the cameras, without excluding Riyadh and the Gulf. Although the Saudi Intelligence Chief came to Damascus last May to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it is not so easy to repair a broken vase.

Russia’s efforts to turn Syria into the Arab League have also failed as the Ukrainian war remains uncertain. Russia increased its weight in the Middle East with its involvement in Syria in 2015. This weight is now being measured again in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s success or failure on the Ukrainian front is carefully monitored in the region’s capitals. Recently, my Russian interlocutor, who has been in the Middle East for many years, asked the question “What is Russia’s post-Ukraine Syria strategy?” and said: “There is nothing new. Ukraine is a priority, not Syria. Right now, everything is about Ukraine, and the Syrian strategy is about Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine will directly affect the Middle East. ”

The main difference between the central states that want to stay in balance between Russia and the West without choosing in the Arab League and the states that prefer strategic cooperation with Russia and the West, such as Sudan and Syria, is one of the most important reasons of fractions. Relations with Israel, the outlook on Abraham’s agreements, and relations with Iran can be listed as major issues of disagreement. The Arab League, which has not been an effective sanction force since its inception, does not expect a summit to melt the separated state interests in one general Arab pot and stand out as an effective organization. It is an idea that pushes the boundaries of real politics to gather the generations of states stretching from Morocco and Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to the Persian Gulf around a single ideal and to establish an “Arab Turan”. Arab states will stand side by side but direct their actions with different geopolitical and political pressures.

From where we started, the Arab world, which is unable to heartily embrace Syria, is “on a horizontal course” in market terms. Efforts are being made to prevent the pointer from turning red again, as in the Arab Spring period.

MIDDLE EAST

Some Afghan journalists contemplating suicide; but why?

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In the past three years, the Taliban have severely limited access to information in Afghanistan and in some cases made it almost impossible. Many journalists who operate from the country say that the space for their activities is getting narrower every day.

These reporters state that in addition to self-censorship, they have experienced a kind of unwanted imprisonment and spend days and nights in their homes. They cannot move freely in the community for fear of interrogation and revenge from the Taliban.

In this report, two journalists have confirmed that they thought of suicide due to pressure from the Taliban. They say that life in Afghanistan has become difficult and that the Taliban have appeared as “death angle” and that if they did not have children, they would commit suicide.

These journalists are disappointed with the institutions that support the media and say that they have no way out of the existing problems. This is despite the fact that the Taliban have imposed more restrictions during the past month and have banned the publication of photos and images in five provinces.

One of the journalists who works under the Taliban regime says that the space for journalists to breathe and live is getting narrower and more limited every day. According to him, the Taliban have created an atmosphere where reporters and media spend day and night in worry and fear, and because of this, they cannot cover many events.

Taliban severely restricted the media landscape in Afghanistan, making it nearly impossible for journalist to operate

She emphasized that in some cases, due to the fear of the Taliban, she has covered news events a few days after they happened to prevent the Taliban from drawing attention and focusing on herself.

This reporter, who does not want to be named in the report, emphasizes that the difficult living conditions, the strict restrictions of the Taliban and the fear of being arrested and interrogated by this group made her think of suicide.

Samera, one of the Afghan female journalists, using her pin name for security reason, said that the painful experience of working under the Taliban rule has made her think about suicide many times. She says that she was once arrested by the Taliban for filming for news coverage.

“My arrest by the Taliban was the most bitter and painful experience, which made forced me to think of committing suicide,” She lamented.

This journalist says: “When the Taliban arrested me, I was thinking what my family, my colleagues and the community would say if I stayed in the prison at night?”

She furthered, “Because the arrest of a woman by the Taliban willfully or unwittingly has negative and harmful consequences that one cannot think of anything other than suicide.”

When the Taliban took some journalists, including females to the court, one of them said “why did you bring them, you should have shot them.”

“There I saw an old man who was the same age as my father. He threw himself at Talib’s feet and apologized, but Talib did not pay any attention to him,” she added.

An Afghan journalist said that he will commit suicide this time if Taliban arrest him

Omid, another journalist who used his pin name to avoid arrest, has thought of suicide many times, and he was also arrested several times. He says that despite his efforts, he did not succeed in leaving Afghanistan. “I’ll commit suicide if the Taliban arrest me once again,” he warned.

He furthered that he has heard a lot about torture and ill-treatment in the Taliban prison and has a horrible image of the prison scenes in his mind.

“Before the Taliban torture and insult me ​​in a terrible way, or take a video commitment from me… I prefer to put an end to this life,” he warned, adding that “I think that suicide is the only way to end all this suffering and misery.”

Another journalist who is currently in Pakistan also confirms that he thought of suicide due to mental and psychological problems. She says: “God is a witness to the hardships I experienced in Pakistan, it had ruined my soul and spirit so much that I thought if I committed suicide, I might get rid of these ordeals.”

In the past one month, the Taliban have continuously and systematically prevented the video activities of the media in a number of provinces across the country. After banning photography and filming, this group has now banned five provinces from these activities and announced that this restriction will be gradually applied in all provinces.

The Taliban authorities have informed the local media of the ban on taking pictures and publishing them, as well as banning the video interviews of their officials in Nangarhar province.

Azizullah Mustafa, the deputy governor of the Taliban in Nangarhar has ordered all the local employees that according to the order of the Taliban supreme leader it is forbidden to take pictures of living creatures and publish them, and the media is only allowed to communicate with Taliban officials.

Taliban already banned taking pictures of living creatures in five provinces in Afghanistan

Kandahar, Takhar, Badghis, Helmand and Nangarhar are among the provinces, where taking pictures of living creatures and publishing them, as well as video interviews, are completely prohibited.

The Taliban have closed three radio stations in Khost province during the past month under extensive pressure. “Gharghasht”, “Zheman” and “Long” radios have been blocked by the Taliban and they have resumed their activities after providing a written commitment to comply with the Taliban’s orders.

The Center of Afghan Journalists has already announced that the Taliban have imposed 17 restrictive directives against the media. These restrictions include preventing women from appearing on national radio and television, banning media coverage of demonstrations and civil protests, imposing restrictions on access to information and publishing news and reports, requiring journalists and media to introduce the Taliban regime as the “government of Afghanistan”.

Also, the Taliban have imposed restrictions on interviews with their opponents and critics. They have banned the broadcast of international television programs in Afghanistan and have imposed restrictions on publishing commercials with political, security and social content. In addition, the media have been prohibited from criticizing the work of Taliban officials, and filming, video interviews, and the publication of women’s voices have been prohibited from the media.

Also, it is forbidden to work with the media that have been declared “forbidden” by the Taliban, and in Helmand province, the publication of women’s voices in the local media is completely prohibited. Orders have also been issued to the media to refrain from using “foreign terms”, which refers to the use of “
“Persian words” for university and college. Prohibiting photography and filming in official and informal meetings of local Taliban officials in Kandahar, and banning girls from making phone calls to radios and televisions in Khost province are among the other restrictions imposed by the Taliban on domestic media in Afghanistan.

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MIDDLE EAST

ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant on war Crimes charges

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, citing war crimes in Gaza.

Despite sanctions and threats from Israel and the United States, the ICC’s decision was based on overwhelming evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians. Among the charges, Netanyahu and Gallant were accused of using starvation as a weapon, with the court stating these allegations are founded on “reasonable grounds.”

Israel reportedly employed its intelligence agency, the Mossad, to spy on, hack, pressure, defame, and allegedly threaten senior ICC officials in an effort to obstruct investigations. Although these efforts were partially exposed through the international press and statements from ICC staff, they failed to deter the Court’s proceedings.

The ICC also clarified that it is undeterred by Israel’s non-recognition of the Court’s authority or its rulings.

Additionally, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masr on related charges.

While this ruling may not immediately halt Israeli military actions in Gaza or reduce U.S. support for Israel, it is likely to deepen divisions among European nations over their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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MIDDLE EAST

Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends

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Khalil al-Hayya, a senior member of the Hamas Political Bureau, announced on Al-Aqsa TV that Hamas had accepted a proposal to form a committee to administer Gaza, with the condition that its operations be entirely local.

In his statement regarding the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, al-Hayya said: “An idea has been proposed to establish a committee for the administration of Gaza. This suggestion was made by our Egyptian brothers. We have responded responsibly and positively. We accept this proposal on the condition that the committee will operate in a fully localized manner, overseeing all aspects of daily life in Gaza.”

Earlier this month, representatives from both the Hamas and Fatah movements convened in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss a potential ceasefire and the establishment of this administrative committee.

Commenting on the indirect ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel, al-Hayya stated: “There will be no prisoner exchange until the Israeli genocide stops. This is an interconnected equation. We are very clear on this: we want this aggression to end. These attacks must cease before any prisoner exchange can take place.”

Al-Hayya added that Hamas remains ready for a ceasefire agreement but emphasized that Israel must demonstrate genuine willingness to proceed. “We are engaging with mediating countries to advance ceasefire negotiations. However, Netanyahu is hindering progress in these talks for political reasons,” he said.

Since the escalation of violence on October 7, 2023, indirect negotiations between the parties have continued, with countries like Qatar mediating ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreements. Both the United States and Egypt have played supporting roles in these efforts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism domestically and from the international community for failing to secure a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas. Analysts highlight those additional conditions introduced by Israel, particularly its insistence on maintaining control over the Egypt-Gaza border and the Philadelphi Corridor, have further complicated the negotiations.

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