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AUKUS deal under scrutiny as US reconsiders its commitment

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The Pentagon has initiated a review of the AUKUS submarine agreement, which was signed with the United Kingdom and Australia in 2021.

According to six sources familiar with the matter who spoke to the Financial Times, the review process, which will determine whether the US should cancel the project, is being led by Elbridge Colby, a senior defense official who has previously expressed skepticism about AUKUS.

The review has sparked concern in London and Canberra.

Some critics and experts have argued that the AUKUS deal could undermine US national security, as the navy is already struggling to produce enough American submarines to counter China’s growing naval power.

Australia and the UK plan to jointly produce a new class of attack submarines, named SSN-Aukus, which are scheduled to enter service in the early 2040s. However, the US has committed to selling Australia up to five Virginia-class submarines starting in 2032 to bridge the gap as its current fleet is retired. This commitment would almost certainly be voided if the US were to withdraw from AUKUS.

Last year, Colby wrote on X that he was skeptical of AUKUS, stating it would be “insane” for the US to reduce its number of nuclear-powered attack submarines, known as SSNs, in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

In March, Colby said it would be “great” for Australia to have SSNs but warned of a “very real threat of conflict in the coming years” and that US SSNs would be “absolutely essential” for defending Taiwan.

Skeptics of the nuclear technology-sharing agreement have also questioned whether the US should help Australia acquire submarines without a firm commitment to use them in a potential war with China.

Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s deputy secretary of state and an American architect of AUKUS, emphasized last year the importance of Australia having SSNs that could work closely with the US in a conflict over Taiwan. Canberra, however, has not linked its need for these vessels to a potential conflict over Taiwan.

This review comes at a time of growing anxiety among US allies about the potential policies of a new Trump administration. Colby has told the UK and other European allies to focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region and reduce their activities in the Indo-Pacific.

A source close to the AUKUS discussions said Canberra and London were “incredibly worried” about the review of the agreement.

“AUKUS is the most significant military and strategic initiative between the US, Australia, and the UK in generations,” Campbell told the Financial Times.

“Efforts to enhance coordination, defense spending, and common objectives should be welcomed. Any bureaucratic attempt to undermine AUKUS would create a crisis of confidence among our closest security and political partners,” he added.

Pressure to increase defense spending

The Pentagon has been pressuring Australia to increase its defense spending. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called on Canberra this month to raise its spending from 2% to 3.5% of its GDP. In response, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated, “We will determine our own defense policy.”

Charles Edel, an Australia expert at the CSIS think tank in Washington, noted, “Australia’s defense spending is increasing gradually, but not as quickly as that of other democratic states, and it is not at a level sufficient to cover the costs of either AUKUS or its current conventional forces.”

John Lee, an Australian defense expert at the Hudson Institute, said the pressure on Canberra is mounting as the US focuses on deterring China from attacking Taiwan within this decade. Lee added that if Australia does not increase its defense spending to 3% of its GDP, its navy will rapidly weaken.

“This would be unacceptable for a Trump administration,” Lee stated. “If Australia continues on this path, it is likely that a Trump administration would freeze or cancel Pillar 1 of AUKUS [the part related to submarines] to compel Australia to increase its military spending within the next five years.”

America First

A source close to the review said it was unclear whether Colby was acting alone or as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration. “The general consensus is that the former is true, but the uncertainty has confused Congress, other government departments, and Australia,” the source said.

A Pentagon spokesperson stated that the department is reviewing AUKUS “to ensure this initiative from the previous administration is aligned with the president’s ‘America First’ agenda.” The spokesperson added that Hegseth has “made it clear he intends for the department of [defense] to focus primarily on the Indo-Pacific region.”

Several people familiar with the matter said the review would last 30 days, though the spokesperson declined to comment on the timeline. “Any changes to the administration’s approach to AUKUS will be announced through official channels when appropriate,” they said.

A British government official said the UK was aware of the review. “This is sensible for a new administration,” the official noted, adding that the Labour government is also reviewing AUKUS.

“We have reiterated the strategic importance of the UK-US relationship, announced additional defense spending, and confirmed our commitment to AUKUS,” the official added.

The Australian embassy in Washington declined to comment.

The AUKUS agreement and China’s reaction

The AUKUS agreement, aimed at helping Australia build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines through technology transfer from the US and the UK, was signed on September 16, 2021.

Under the security pact, named from an acronym of the three countries’ names, at least eight nuclear-powered submarines will be built at shipyards in Adelaide, the capital of South Australia.

The agreement is widely seen as a pact to counterbalance China’s military power in the region.

China has reacted strongly to the deal, emphasizing that the alliance will undermine regional peace and stability, as well as international efforts toward nuclear non-proliferation.

Asia

Japan diverges from G7, urging restraint in Israel-Iran conflict

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has affirmed Tokyo’s position of calling for “maximum restraint” from both Israel and Iran, despite a G7 statement earlier this week that supported Israel’s “right to self-defense.”

During a meeting of ruling and opposition party leaders on Thursday, Ishiba stated, “What the foreign minister said is the stance of the Japanese government. The G7 is the G7,” as reported by Tomoko Tamura, head of the Japanese Communist Party.

Japan, a close US ally in Asia, has long maintained friendly relations with Iran and has historically adopted a neutral approach to Middle East diplomacy, distinguishing itself from the pro-Israel stance of US administrations. Tokyo relies on the Middle East for the overwhelming majority of its crude oil imports.

G7 leaders convened in Kananaskis, Canada, and issued a statement backing Israel’s attacks on Iran. The statement affirmed Israel’s right to self-defense and condemned Iran as the “main source of regional instability and terrorism.” On June 13, when Israel’s attacks on Iran began, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya declared: “The use of military force while diplomatic efforts are ongoing… is completely unacceptable and a source of deep regret. The Japanese government strongly condemns these actions.”

Iwaya added, “Japan is gravely concerned about the continuation of retaliatory attacks and strongly condemns any actions that could further escalate the situation.”

He continued, “Japan urges all parties to exercise maximum restraint and strongly calls for a de-escalation of tensions.”

During the meeting of party leaders, Tomoko Tamura, head of the Japanese Communist Party, highlighted the apparent contradiction between Iwaya’s statements and the joint G7 communiqué, suggesting the government was applying a “double standard.”

Prime Minister Ishiba responded, “What the foreign minister said is the stance of the Japanese government. The G7 is the G7.”

Meanwhile, the foreign minister announced at a press conference on Friday that a total of 87 Japanese nationals and their family members had been evacuated by land from Iran and Israel. Sixty-six individuals were evacuated from Iran to neighboring Azerbaijan, and 21 were evacuated from Israel to Jordan.

Following additional requests from Japanese citizens, a second land evacuation from Iran is scheduled for Saturday. Currently, there are approximately 220 Japanese nationals in Iran and about 1,000 in Israel.

In preparation for potential air evacuations, the government plans to dispatch two Air Self-Defense Force military transport aircraft to Djibouti in East Africa to have them on standby. With airports in Iran and Israel closed, Iwaya noted that the aircraft could be used if, for example, the airports reopen and conditions permit an airlift.

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Iran-Israel war: Why US discusses regional conflict with Pakistan

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US President Donald Trump and Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir held a special and important meeting during a time when tensions are rising in the Asian region. The meeting was held on Trump’s invitation and was not open to the media. However, both sides have released official statements afterward, which states that the main topics were discussed

The meeting focused on the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Pakistan–India relations, especially the Kashmir issue, the situation in Afghanistan and future US–Pakistan cooperation.

Pakistan has recently improved its strategic position in the region. It has shown strong ties with China and is the only South Asian country openly supporting Iran in its conflict with Israel. Meanwhile, Pakistan remains an important player in Afghanistan.

Why the Pakistani Army Chief was invited to the US?

Although Pakistan has an elected civilian government, important decisions—especially related to foreign affairs and security—are often handled by the military. That’s why General Asim Munir was invited to meet Trump instead of the Prime Minister, General Munir’s influence has grown recently. After tensions with India, he was given the title of Field Marshal. His meeting with Trump is seen as a sign of his importance in both Pakistani and international politics.

According to the Pakistan Army’s media wing (ISPR): General Munir thanked President Trump for helping to ease recent tensions between Pakistan and India. Trump praised Pakistan’s role in fighting terrorism. Both agreed to work together in the future, especially in: Trade, Technology Minerals and energy Artificial intelligence Crypto currency and regional peace efforts as well.

President Trump also appreciated General Munir’s leadership during difficult times. Munir invited Trump to visit Pakistan, and Trump reportedly accepted the offer in principle.

Why US former peace envoy to Afghanistan, Khalilzad is not trusting Pakistan’s army chief

Former U.S. diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad criticized the meeting. He said General Munir cannot be trusted and reminded the U.S. that Pakistan has supported groups that harmed American soldiers in the past. According to Khalilzad, General Munir may be trying to get U.S. support for his interests in Afghanistan, which he believes could be risky for America.

Though no official list of US demands was made public, reports suggest a meeting was held in Saudi Arabia earlier, where American officials spoke with top Pakistani leaders. During that meeting, the U.S. reportedly made four key requests:  Pakistan should help the U.S. in counterterrorism operations when needed. Pakistan should slowly reduce its relations with China. Pakistan should recognize Israel after Saudi Arabia does. If the U.S. attacks Iran, Pakistan should support the U.S. instead of staying neutral.

These demands are similar to earlier U.S.–Pakistan arrangements during the Cold War and the War on Terror.

What could be expected in the future?

This meeting could mark the beginning of a new phase in US–Pakistan relations. In the past, Pakistan helped the U.S. during the Soviet-Afghan War and after 9/11. Now, with tensions involving Iran, India, and Afghanistan—and China expanding its role—the U.S. may again be looking to Pakistan as a key partner in the region.

Time will tell whether this leads to a long-term partnership or just another temporary agreement based on short-term goals.

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China pledges aid and signs friendship treaty at Central Asia summit

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China concluded its latest engagement efforts in Central Asia on Tuesday by pledging 1.5 billion yuan (US$209 million) for livelihood and development projects in the region.

The six nations participating in the second China-Central Asia Summit also signed a historic permanent friendship treaty.

“China is ready to provide 1.5 billion yuan in grant assistance to Central Asian countries this year to support livelihood and development projects of common interest to each country,” Chinese President Xi Jinping stated in his opening address at the summit in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.

“Additionally, China will offer 3,000 training opportunities to Central Asian countries over the next two years.”

Xi described the signing of the Permanent Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Agreement as a milestone in relations between the six countries, calling it “an innovative initiative in China’s neighborhood diplomacy and a contribution that will benefit future generations.”

China has signed similar agreements with Russia and Pakistan.

Xi also emphasized the need for cooperation in a world that has entered “a new period of turbulence and transformation.”

State news agency Xinhua quoted Xi as saying, “There will be no winner in a tariff and trade war. Protectionists and hegemonists will harm both others and themselves.”

“The world should not be divided, but united; humanity should not revert to the law of the jungle, but work to build a common future for mankind,” he added.

Xi also announced the establishment of three cooperation centers focusing on poverty reduction, educational exchange, and desertification control, as well as a trade facilitation platform under the China-Central Asia cooperation framework.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China and the Central Asian countries are eager to improve road and rail connectivity and plan to open more direct flights to and from China to increase mutual exchange.

China will consider simplifying visa procedures with the five Central Asian countries, while all parties will study the feasibility of opening consulates.

Together with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, China will accelerate the modernization of existing port facilities and assess the need for new ones.

The summit was the second of its kind, following the inaugural one held two years ago in Xian, China.

These efforts reflect a deepening of China’s relations with Central Asia, which have historically focused on areas such as transportation infrastructure.

The region is a key part of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s global development strategy, and China has invested heavily in energy pipelines, infrastructure, and mining projects in Central Asia.

However, China also wants to expand cooperation into sustainable development and renewable energy.

These investments were a major focus of Xi’s meetings with the leaders of the five Central Asian states.

During the meetings, Xi stressed the need to uphold multilateralism and the global trade order. This is part of Beijing’s effort to position itself as a more reliable partner following the US tariff war.

Meeting with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Xi called for expanding gas cooperation and exploring opportunities in non-resource sectors.

Security was also on the agenda.

“The two countries should further strengthen law enforcement, security, and defense cooperation, jointly combat the ‘three forces,’ and enhance cooperation in cybersecurity,” Xi said, referring to “terrorism, separatism, and extremism.”

Beijing views these forces as threats to national and regional security, and Xi has repeatedly emphasized this stance in his meetings with Central Asian leaders.

While China’s presence in Central Asia has historically focused on economic investments, its influence in the security sphere is growing through joint counter-terrorism drills, training programs, and aid.

This is particularly true in Tajikistan, which shares a long border with Afghanistan, where China is concerned about terrorists returning to carry out operations in its western Xinjiang region.

In his meeting with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Xi called for deeper cooperation in law enforcement and security to combat the three forces.

He also called for increasing bilateral trade and investment and improving transportation infrastructure.

Rahmon said Dushanbe would expand cooperation in new areas such as new energy, green industries, and artificial intelligence, and would “strengthen coordination with Beijing for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to play a greater role.”

The SCO is the main forum for relations between China and the landlocked region. This political, economic, and security bloc was founded in 2001 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan, reflecting its commitment to “permanent neutrality,” is the only Central Asian country outside the organization.

On Tuesday, Xi also held talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, describing relations between the two countries as being in “the best period in history.”

Xi said the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is a top priority, but new growth drivers such as clean energy, green mining, and artificial intelligence should also be developed.

The talks followed the signing of cooperation documents between China and the summit’s host country, Kazakhstan, covering trade, investment, technology, tourism, and customs.

Xi asked his Kazakh counterpart, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, to accelerate cross-border railway projects and the improvement of port infrastructure.

Xi also stated, “Beijing and Astana should be strong supporters of each other in turbulent times.”

According to the Kazakh presidential office, Tokayev described relations between the two countries as stable and “not negatively affected by geopolitical challenges and turmoil or the international situation.”

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