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Polls show Japan’s ruling bloc could lose its majority

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With polls suggesting that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition could lose its majority in Sunday’s general election, speculation is mounting over what will happen next and whether a third party may need to step in to form a government.

A majority requires 233 seats in the 465-seat parliament. When the assembly was dissolved on October 9, the LDP held a total of 288 seats—256 for the LDP and 32 for Komeito. However, public outrage over an LDP-centered slush fund scandal has put the ruling bloc’s 55-seat majority at risk.

A poll by the Asahi Shimbun earlier this week suggested that the final seat count for both parties could fall below 233, raising the question of what would happen next in such a scenario.

Depending on the outcome, one option for the LDP and Komeito could be to invite the smaller Democratic Party for the People (DPP) into a coalition.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki told reporters on Tuesday that his party has no intention of joining an LDP-led coalition. However, Tamaki did not rule out the possibility of the DPP cooperating with the LDP on policy areas where they align, such as the need for nuclear power.

Even if the LDP and Komeito retain power with a slim majority, there are questions about how effectively they can govern if they fail to meet two other key thresholds.

Under parliamentary rules, an absolute stable majority requires at least 261 seats, which allows the ruling coalition to chair committees and hold a majority of committee members. To have equal representation with opposition parties in committees, the ruling bloc needs at least 244 seats.

Asked about the possibility of adding a third coalition partner on BS Fuji Prime’s television program on Friday, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama said it was possible. Moriyama emphasized the importance of parties working together when they share common policies.

Another potential partner for the ruling coalition is Nippon Ishin no Kai, which holds 43 seats in the lower house and shares some of the LDP’s policy goals, including constitutional revision.

However, speaking at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan on Tuesday, Tomoaki Iwai, a political expert and professor emeritus at Nihon University, noted that both the DPP and Nippon Ishin face internal resistance to joining an LDP-led coalition.

“As far as the DPP is concerned, except for Tamaki and a few others, everyone in the party wants to return to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP),” he said, referring to Japan’s largest opposition party.

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda hinted that the CDP, which had 98 seats when the Diet was dissolved, would be open to forming a coalition with the DPP if necessary. Japan’s largest trade union, Rengo, which supports both the CDP and the DPP, has been urging them to work together.

Nippon Ishin’s participation in an LDP coalition is also complicated by Komeito’s presence. Komeito and Nippon Ishin are running against each other for the first time in the ward elections, making a post-election partnership difficult. Additionally, Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba has faced challenges after local election losses in Osaka, the party’s main stronghold, earlier this year.

“There are voices within Nippon Ishin, particularly among younger members, who want to remove Baba,” said Iwai.

He also noted that Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura might be open to working with the CDP.

Last month, Yoshimura expressed interest in running joint candidates with the CDP against LDP members implicated in the slush fund scandal. Although he stated that the decision ultimately rested with Baba, Nippon Ishin and the CDP had little time to coordinate candidates before the Diet was dissolved on October 9.

If the total number of seats held by the LDP-Komeito coalition falls below 233, an intense struggle could unfold as all parties maneuver to secure enough seats for either an LDP-led ruling coalition or a CDP-led bloc.

However, a resolution will need to be reached quickly. A special session of parliament is scheduled for next month to formally elect the new prime minister.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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ASIA

Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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