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Polls show Japan’s ruling bloc could lose its majority

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With polls suggesting that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition could lose its majority in Sunday’s general election, speculation is mounting over what will happen next and whether a third party may need to step in to form a government.

A majority requires 233 seats in the 465-seat parliament. When the assembly was dissolved on October 9, the LDP held a total of 288 seats—256 for the LDP and 32 for Komeito. However, public outrage over an LDP-centered slush fund scandal has put the ruling bloc’s 55-seat majority at risk.

A poll by the Asahi Shimbun earlier this week suggested that the final seat count for both parties could fall below 233, raising the question of what would happen next in such a scenario.

Depending on the outcome, one option for the LDP and Komeito could be to invite the smaller Democratic Party for the People (DPP) into a coalition.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki told reporters on Tuesday that his party has no intention of joining an LDP-led coalition. However, Tamaki did not rule out the possibility of the DPP cooperating with the LDP on policy areas where they align, such as the need for nuclear power.

Even if the LDP and Komeito retain power with a slim majority, there are questions about how effectively they can govern if they fail to meet two other key thresholds.

Under parliamentary rules, an absolute stable majority requires at least 261 seats, which allows the ruling coalition to chair committees and hold a majority of committee members. To have equal representation with opposition parties in committees, the ruling bloc needs at least 244 seats.

Asked about the possibility of adding a third coalition partner on BS Fuji Prime’s television program on Friday, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama said it was possible. Moriyama emphasized the importance of parties working together when they share common policies.

Another potential partner for the ruling coalition is Nippon Ishin no Kai, which holds 43 seats in the lower house and shares some of the LDP’s policy goals, including constitutional revision.

However, speaking at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan on Tuesday, Tomoaki Iwai, a political expert and professor emeritus at Nihon University, noted that both the DPP and Nippon Ishin face internal resistance to joining an LDP-led coalition.

“As far as the DPP is concerned, except for Tamaki and a few others, everyone in the party wants to return to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP),” he said, referring to Japan’s largest opposition party.

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda hinted that the CDP, which had 98 seats when the Diet was dissolved, would be open to forming a coalition with the DPP if necessary. Japan’s largest trade union, Rengo, which supports both the CDP and the DPP, has been urging them to work together.

Nippon Ishin’s participation in an LDP coalition is also complicated by Komeito’s presence. Komeito and Nippon Ishin are running against each other for the first time in the ward elections, making a post-election partnership difficult. Additionally, Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba has faced challenges after local election losses in Osaka, the party’s main stronghold, earlier this year.

“There are voices within Nippon Ishin, particularly among younger members, who want to remove Baba,” said Iwai.

He also noted that Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura might be open to working with the CDP.

Last month, Yoshimura expressed interest in running joint candidates with the CDP against LDP members implicated in the slush fund scandal. Although he stated that the decision ultimately rested with Baba, Nippon Ishin and the CDP had little time to coordinate candidates before the Diet was dissolved on October 9.

If the total number of seats held by the LDP-Komeito coalition falls below 233, an intense struggle could unfold as all parties maneuver to secure enough seats for either an LDP-led ruling coalition or a CDP-led bloc.

However, a resolution will need to be reached quickly. A special session of parliament is scheduled for next month to formally elect the new prime minister.

ASIA

Taliban denies Pakistan claims Jaffar Express “terrorists” were in contact with leaders in Afghanistan

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The recent attack on the Jafar Express passenger train in the Pakistani province of Balochistan by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has sparked a number of reactions, including strong condemnation from the National Resistance Front and some Afghan jihadi organizations. Many people asked for designation of the BLA as a terrorist group.

Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesman Shafqat Ali Khan said that “India has been involved in terrorism. In the particular attack on Jaffar Express, the terrorists had been in contact with their handlers and ring leaders in Afghanistan.” The statement came a day after the rescue operation for the Jaffar Express attack was completed and all the 33 BLA fighters, who hijacked the Jaffar Express which was carrying over 400 passengers, were killed.

The Pakistani military said that 21 passengers have been killed and the remaining hostages have been freed. And also, four Pakistani security forces killed during the rescue operation in the Mushqaf area of the Bolan district.

Shafqat Ali Khan added that “the terrorists have safe havens in Afghanistan, and Pakistan has repeatedly urged the Afghan interim government to prevent groups like the BLA from using its soil for terrorism.”

Pakistani Director General Inter-Services Public Relations Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said that the Jaffar Express incident changed the rules of the game.

“Whoever did this will be hunted down and brought to justice,” he said, adding that the terrorists had nothing to do with Islam, Pakistan and Balochistan. In a statement, the ISPR said that intelligence reports have unequivocally confirmed that the attack was orchestrated and directed by terrorist ring leaders operating from Afghanistan, who were in direct communication with the terrorists throughout the incident.

Taliban urges Pakistan to restrain from irresponsible statement rather resolve their own security issues.

The Taliban Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Abdul Qahar Balki asked Pakistan to refrain from giving irresponsible remarks and instead focus on the security situation and internal issues of the country.

“We categorically reject baseless allegations by a Pakistani army spokesman linking the attack on a passenger train in Balochistan province with Afghanistan, and urge the Pakistani side to focus on resolving their own security and internal problems instead of such irresponsible remarks,” Balkhi added.

Balkhi furthered that “no members of Balouch opposition have presence in Afghanistan, nor have they ever had or have any links with the Islamic Emirate.”

He expressed his saddened by the loss of life of innocents in the incident, lamenting that “sacrificing civilians for political objectives is unjustifiable”.

Baloch struggle against injustices.

The incident came despite the fact that the Baloch struggle against injustices by the Pakistani military began in 1948. These struggles are in response to systematic discrimination, political marginalization, the “kill and dump” policy, and the unjust exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources.

Given these facts, a fundamental question arises: What is the difference between the oppression of the Pakistani military against the Baloch and the oppression of the same military’s proxy forces in the form of the Taliban against the people of Afghanistan?

“What difference should there be between the BLA and those who have condemned it, to call one a terrorist group and consider themselves legitimate fighters, while both groups have resorted to armed resistance in response to injustice and oppression,” Rahmatullah Nabil former Afghan spy head said.

It seems that condemning the Baloch freedom movement indicates a double policy that can add to the distrust of the narrative of the struggle of these movements. “I think it is essential to address such issues by paying attention to the historical and social roots of the conflicts and responding to them with a fair and impartial approach.”

 

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Premier Li calls for accelerated efforts to meet China’s economic goals

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang has urged officials to do their utmost in the race to achieve key targets, such as maintaining an economic growth rate of around 5%, as set out in the “two sessions” held last week.

“We must improve measures and accelerate their implementation, race against time amidst various uncertainties, and work quickly and proactively,” Li said on Wednesday at a State Council meeting, one day after the conclusion of the annual meetings of China’s top legislative and advisory bodies.

As Beijing outlined a series of policies to boost growth in the face of economic headwinds, Li called on all state institutions to “take the initiative to fulfill their responsibilities and take more positive steps to complete their tasks.”

Although Chinese leaders emphasized their confidence in the future of the world’s second-largest economy, they also highlighted ongoing challenges such as weak domestic demand and intensifying trade frictions with the US during the two sessions.

According to a summary of Wednesday’s meeting reported by Xinhua, Li asked officials to “closely monitor changes in the situation and make good policy preparations to ensure they can be launched in a timely manner and deliver results as soon as possible.”

In his work report last week, Li emphasized that China’s growth target of around 5% for 2025 underscored the leadership’s determination to tackle challenges and achieve results.

While China announced further fiscal stimulus measures during the two sessions, following a package in the last quarter of 2024, it faces uncertainties not only domestically but also externally, particularly due to the trade war with US President Donald Trump.

At Wednesday’s State Council meeting, a work plan was discussed and adopted that clarified the division of key tasks for this year among different departments and emphasized inter-departmental coordination.

According to a separate meeting held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the same day, these tasks include expanding the scale of 5G telecom technology applications and accelerating the development of 6G.

Li Lecheng, the Party Secretary of the Ministry, pledged to continue efforts to upgrade traditional industries, accelerate the digitalization and green transformation of the manufacturing sector, and accelerate the application of artificial intelligence, especially in areas such as electric vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, 1.664 million electric bicycles were sold and replaced nationwide from January 1 to Tuesday, accounting for 120.4% of the total number in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a leading state-owned bank, pledged on Wednesday to provide at least 6 trillion yuan (829.2 billion US dollars) in financing to private enterprises over the next three years, Xinhua reported.

Bank Chairman Liao Lin said at an event in Beijing that the aim was to “support businesses to stick to their core businesses” and “help the economy continue to recover and improve.”

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Zhao Leji misses key political meetings, citing respiratory infection

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For the first time in recent history, the head of China’s top legislature was absent from the closing of the parliamentary meeting known as the “two sessions” on Tuesday.

Zhao Leji, 68, the third-ranking official and chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC), was unable to attend due to a “respiratory infection,” according to his deputy, Li Hongzhong, who presided over the closing ceremony.

Zhao last appeared in public on Saturday at the first meeting of the NPC presidium.

For the first time in decades, not all members of the Politburo Standing Committee attended the closing meeting of the NPC.

However, Zhao’s name was mentioned when Li announced the voting results of the NPC’s annual work report.

“The deputies of the NPC listened to and reviewed the work report presented by Chairman Zhao Leji on behalf of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. The session fully approved the work of the Standing Committee over the past year, agreed with the tasks proposed in the report for the coming year, and decided to approve the report,” Li said.

According to Li, the work report was approved by an overwhelming majority.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang both appeared relieved as they left the stage after the ceremony concluded.

For the first time since the pandemic, Covid-19 tests were not required to attend the two sessions.

Zhao was also absent from the closing of the annual session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on Monday, which was attended by the other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee, including President Xi.

Since the 1980s, it has become a political norm for all top leaders of the ruling party to attend the opening and closing ceremonies of the annual NPC and CPPCC sessions as a political endorsement of the national legislative and political advisory sessions.

The annual event also serves as a platform for party and government leaders to hear the views of non-party Chinese elites on China’s most pressing issues.

In addition to missing the closing of the CPPCC, Zhao also did not attend two meetings of the NPC’s presidium on Monday, which are usually overseen by the NPC chairman. Instead, state news agency Xinhua said that NPC Vice Chairman Li Hongzhong was “entrusted by Zhao Leji” to preside over the two meetings.

At the meeting where Zhao last appeared in public on March 8 at the NPC presidium, it was decided to submit the draft decision on the amendment of the Deputies Law and the draft revisions to the government work report and the central and local government budgets to the NPC for consideration.

Zhao, who was promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee in 2017, served as secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party’s top anti-corruption and political discipline body, until 2022, succeeding Wang Qishan.

At the 20th Party Congress in 2022, he was reappointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, becoming the third-ranking member. In March 2023, he was appointed chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, succeeding Li Zhanshu.

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