A report titled The Future of the World Order, presented at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), emphasized that the world is undergoing a deep and prolonged crisis, fundamentally altering the existing order.

Experts noted that while risks like climate change were previously at the forefront, the agenda for the past two years has been dominated by wars, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts, which have reached a new dimension due to the actions of the US.

Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist at VEB, stated during a session titled “The Future of the World Order: Between Conflict and Cooperation,” “It is a well-known fact that the world is in a crisis. The real question is how long this crisis has been going on and how much longer it will last.”

Boris Titov, the Presidential Special Representative for Relations with International Organizations to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals, described the current situation not as a tactical crisis like the one in 2014–2015, but as a global one. “In our view, we are witnessing a change of an era, a global transformation of the development model,” he remarked.

The new face of crisis: War and geopolitical risks

Chief Economist Klepach highlighted that 2024 has seen the most intense military conflicts of the last 60 years, adding that 2025 is likely to be similar. He also pointed out that alongside global issues, problems directly affecting human health, such as clean water scarcity and air and food pollution, have become prominent.

“What is happening in the world, particularly in African and Asian countries, is a truly massive challenge. These are issues of social paralysis, poverty, migration, food security, and demographics,” Klepach added.

He noted that the number of people suffering from hunger worldwide began to rise again after 2020, and the coronavirus pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of healthcare systems.

Klepach stressed that the report’s purpose is not merely to list problems but also to identify “windows of opportunity and the need for solutions.” The report seeks ways to establish a new system of international security and trust, new international economic relations, and technological partnerships.

‘The business world has adapted to sanctions’

Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), mentioned that over 200 company representatives were interviewed during the report’s preparation, and most of them look to the future with confidence.

According to Shokhin, the business community has grown accustomed to the pressure of sanctions and tight monetary policy. He said that entrepreneurs have weathered many crises, and every crisis presents an opportunity for growth.

The report identifies the instability of the global financial system as the most significant challenge for companies. Shokhin recalled that the Russian business community faced restrictions on cross-border payments in 2022 and noted that various tools have been developed to overcome this problem.

He argued that the failure to create the “BRICS Pay” platform during Russia’s BRICS presidency was not a defeat.

Shokhin asserted that globalization continues to exist, albeit in an “imperialist” rather than a liberal form. “Leading countries decide for themselves how to control markets and spheres of influence,” he said.

The struggle for hierarchy in a multipolar order

Dmitry Belousov from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TsMAKP) stated that Russia is facing fundamental restrictions. He noted that while the country successfully navigated the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions amounting to an economic war, it now confronts the challenge of a stagnant workforce.

Belousov highlighted Russia’s effectiveness in collaboration, citing “the African” Pushkin and “the Dane” Dal as examples.

Fyodor Voytolovsky, Director of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, argued that the emerging multipolar world order is, in many ways, suitable for Russia as a global player.

“However, we must understand that this is not a flat structure. A struggle for the hierarchy of this multipolar world order is currently underway at both global and regional levels,” Voytolovsky said.

According to Voytolovsky, there are trends toward establishing new models of mutual dependence on one hand, while on the other, established actors, particularly the US and its allies, are making a concerted effort to maintain and strengthen their positions. He also added that countries like China and India are competing for status in this new model.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved the final version of a strategy that will shape the development of the Russian Federation’s Navy until 2050.

In an interview with the newspaper Argumenty i Fakty, Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia and Chairman of the Russian Maritime Board, stated, “The decision to prepare the strategy was made at a meeting in the Kremlin last July. On the president’s instructions, the Ministry of Defense prepared a draft, which was later developed by the Russian Maritime Board, taking into account the proposals of federal agencies and organizations. The final version of the strategy was submitted to the president for review and was approved on May 30.”

Patrushev noted that this development once again highlights that building a powerful and modern navy is among the priority tasks for the Russian state.

‘A first in modern history’

Highlighting the significance of the strategy, Patrushev remarked, “Without going into details, let me say that this is the first time such a strategic planning document has been adopted in modern history. Russia’s position as one of the world’s greatest naval powers is gradually being restored. It is impossible to carry out such work without a long-term vision of the development scenarios in the World Ocean, the evolution of challenges and threats, and, of course, without defining the goals and tasks facing the Russian Navy.”

‘Special military operation’ experience considered

Patrushev explained that the strategy analyzes the development of the global military-political situation, the likelihood and nature of potential armed conflicts, and the capabilities of leading naval powers. He also noted that the current state and capabilities of the Navy were assessed, including the experience gained from the “special military operation.”

Patrushev concluded, “The fundamental requirements for the future combat structure of the Navy, its main tasks in peacetime and wartime, and the mechanisms for shaping the future outlook of the Naval Forces have been formulated. In short, a significant long-term document has been adopted that answers the question of what Russia’s naval power should be to effectively defend our country’s interests in the World Ocean.”

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has reportedly conducted a large-scale attack with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), allegedly launched from trucks, on four strategic bomber bases within Russian territory.

According to a report by the BBC, citing sources within the SBU, “Operation Spider’s Web” targeted the Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast, Dyagilevo in Ryazan, Belaya in Irkutsk, and the Ivanovo airbase in Ivanovo.

Ukrainian sources claimed that more than 40 Russian aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers, were hit in the attacks, causing damage exceeding $2 billion.

Targeted bases and regional confirmations

Murmansk Governor Andrey Chibis confirmed a UAV attack on the region, stating that air defense systems were operational and law enforcement and emergency services were on duty.

Olenegorsk residents reported hearing explosions and seeing fires, and it was learned that entry and exit to the city were prohibited.

The Baza Telegram channel, known for its proximity to law enforcement agencies, wrote that the UAVs attacking the airport took off from a truck parked near Olenegorsk on the morning of June 1. The channel claimed that the truck driver might have been unaware of the cargo and had been detained. The Olenya airbase houses Tu-22M3 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Additionally, Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev reported that UAVs attacked a military unit in the village of Sredniy in the Usolskiy district. Kobzev also stated that “something was dropped on an old building” in Novomaltinsk and said that Siberia had been subjected to a UAV attack for the first time.

As in Murmansk, it was alleged here too that the UAVs were launched from a truck. FSB, Rosgvardiya, and Ministry of Emergency Situations teams were dispatched to the scene.

The Belaya military airbase, home to the 200th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Brest Red Banner Regiment, which has Tu-22M3 strategic bombers in its inventory, is located in the Usolskiy district. Local residents also indicated that this base was the target.

Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov also confirmed the attack on the region. Malkov announced that a part of a downed UAV damaged the roof of a house but no one was injured.

According to Ostorozhno Novosti, the target of the attack was the Dyagilevo airfield, which houses Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers.

It was stated that A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft, used by Russian troops to detect Ukrainian air defense systems, might have been hit at the Ivanovo airfield. Officials did not make a statement regarding this attack.

Ukrainian intelligence claimed responsibility for the attack

According to RBC-Ukraine, more than 40 aircraft, including A-50, Tu-95, and Tu-22M3, were hit as a result of the operation personally led by SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk.

The total cost of the attacks was reported to exceed $2 billion. In a video showing explosion footage from Ukrainian sources, a voice, assessed to be Malyuk’s, is heard saying, “Belaya airfield, how beautiful the enemy’s strategic aviation looks now.”

Reactions from Russian Telegram channels

The Fighterbomber Telegram channel wrote that the UAVs were used at very short range, making it “impossible to save the aircraft from attack, like countering with Pantsir, S-300 and similar systems.”

The author stated, “Today will later be remembered as a black day for Russian long-range aviation. And the day is not over yet.”

The Rybar Telegram channel recalled that Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft have not been in production for a long time, so the losses cannot be replaced.

The channel’s author assessed, “This is, without exaggeration, a very serious blow to the strategic component, resulting from both serious miscalculations in the work of intelligence agencies and a negligent attitude towards aircraft left in the open without protection even after all the attacks.”