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Tajikistan worries what comes next in Afghanistan

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Tajikistan and Afghanistan are separated by just a few yards of water, the narrow Panj River, and the two neighbors are very close to each other. Interestingly, there are no walls or fences along the borders between the northern sides.

The Taliban are not taking control of the border, where Tajikistan sees it as a threat. Taliban came to power in August 2021, and since then Tajikistan did not recognize it and instead expressed concerns about rising insurgency in Afghanistan.

But still the Taliban are seen in bordering areas near to Tajikistan and their white flags can be seen flying in the village along the river.

The border, which runs through the Pamir Mountains, is now considered as a security alert for the Tajikistan side and reportedly stationed more troops there to safeguard the border.

Tajikistan fears that instability could spread from Afghanistan to Tajikistan, and terrorist groups like Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda are finding footholds in northern Afghanistan which is a direct threat to Tajikistan’s peace and stability.

Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon, said that they have encountered several attempts in recent years where the terrorist groups wanted to breach the border. Addressing the fifth Central Asian Summit in Dushanbe, Rahmon said that not long ago, Tajikistan had thwarted two such attempts, aimed at carrying out terrorist attacks in Dushanbe, the capital city and other regions.

Tajikistan supports peace and stability in the region

However, he also spoke about the region’s commitment to peace and sustainable development, and emphasized the importance of expanding trade, fostering economic relations with the neighbors and the region. He also stressed the significance of cultural and humanitarian cooperation, and the creation of a Central Asian Midia Association in order to address security challenges in the Central Asian states.

The river border – Tajikistan to the left, Afghanistan to the right

Specifically, regarding Afghanistan, Rahmon said that Tajikistan is committed to providing favorable socio-economic conditions and facilitating humanitarian aid delivery to stabilize the situation in the country.

But he reiterated his country’s concern over the increase in terrorist groups activities within Afghanistan’s borders. He also spoke about a surge in drug smuggling along the border with Afghanistan. “In 2022, we will have confiscated approximately five tons of narcotics along the Afghan border, which saw an increase of 22 percent from 2021,” the president added.

Tajikistan calls for regional unity to deal with security challenges  

Focusing on these challenges, Rahmon emphasized a need for regional cooperation and unity to meet the security challenges. This comes while a militant from Jamaat Ansarullah (Tajikistani Taliban) made an appearance in a 13:31 minute video. He appeared with an American rifle on his side, calling on his countrymen to take up arms and not be afraid of accusations such as terrorism.

In the video, he mentioned Afghanistan as a country where the Mujahideen are now governing, and also referred to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) that is also close to seizing power in Pakistan. He also spoke about the success of Jaish al Adl in Iran.

This comes as Tajikistan special forces have recently killed three members of the Jamaat Ansarullah, after they reportedly entered into Tajikistan illegally from Afghanistan. Tajikistan forces also said they seized a large cache of weapons and ammunition.

Terrorists illegally crossed into Tajikistan

The terrorists illegally crossed the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border on the night of August 30, quoting Tajikistan’s State Security Council, local news outlets reported, adding that they entered the country through the Kevron district of Darvaz region, in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan.

AKIPress reported that Tajikistan’s counter-terrorism unit established a cordon around the location where the group was hiding and called on them to surrender.

“The terrorists did not obey the orders of the security forces and opened fire. As a result of the shootout, three members of the armed terrorist group were neutralized,” AKIPress cited a statement from the State Security Committee.

The committee said they seized five Kalashnikov assault rifles, two M-16 sniper rifles, an M-4 carbine, four pistols, 13 hand grenades, magazines for weapons and cartridges, various devices, including night vision binoculars, 30 packs of explosives, 162 detonator capsules, remote controls for explosives, $10,000 in cash, medical supplies, and body armor.

Moreover, on April 26 of this year, two members of the organization also illegally crossed the state border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan in the Dashti Yazgulyam section of Vanj district in order to commit a terrorist act. As a result of the anti-terrorist operation, the terrorists were neutralized.”

Tajikistan has tightened security in border with Afghanistan

Meanwhile, the government of Tajikistan already tightened security in its nearly 850-mile-long border with Afghanistan, and it has been closed since 2022. To maintain security, Tajikistan located 20,000 troops to the area bordering Afghanistan, this also resulted in the cut off the flow of refugees from Afghanistan. At the same time, the Taliban also stops Afghans who want to cross the border.

This comes as last month, the Taliban rejected a UN Security Council report, claiming that several terrorist groups, including IS, are present in Afghanistan and have access to weapons left by US-led foreign forces.

Neighboring Pakistan also accused Kabul for doing little to control TTP militants who have unleashed a spate of terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

Two days ago, Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar claimed that US military equipment left behind during the American withdrawal from Afghanistan had fallen into militant hands and ultimately made its way to the TTP.

However, Tajikistan is the only neighbor that has openly adopted a hostile attitude toward the Taliban since their takeover. Meanwhile, Tajikistan has been the main supporter of the anti-Taliban resistance since the 1990s. It is widely believed that Tajikistan again becomes a sanctuary for resistance leaders.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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