Middle East
US balances support and sanctions for Syria’s new Julani-led government
The US is holding the stick of sanctions while also offering support to the new Damascus government led by former al-Qaeda leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani (Ahmed al-Sharaa).
Tom Barrack, the US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria, who has emerged as one of the biggest supporters of the Julani administration, has made another in a series of statements.
Barrack told al-Sharaa to reconsider his policies and adopt a “more inclusive” approach following last week’s clashes in Suwayda, which raised the possibility of a new sectarian war. Otherwise, he said, al-Sharaa would risk losing international support and facing the country’s fragmentation.
Speaking to Reuters in Beirut, where he was visiting to discuss the disarmament of Hezbollah, the envoy said that in private talks with Julani, he advised him to reconsider elements of the pre-war army structure, reduce “Islamist indoctrination,” and accept regional security assistance.
Barrack: Sharaa risks losing the momentum that brought him to power if he doesn’t make changes
Barrack argued that without rapid change, al-Sharaa risks losing the momentum that brought him to power.
Barrack said, “Sharaa should say: ‘I will adapt quickly, because if I do not, I will lose the universal momentum that is behind me.'”
The envoy also said that Julani could “mature as a president and say, ‘The right thing for me is not to pursue my own agenda, which has not been very effective.'”
Barrack also said the new government should consider being “faster and more inclusive” in integrating minorities into the power structure, but he denied reports that HTS-affiliated security forces were responsible for violations against Druze civilians.
According to the American diplomat, there is still no alternative to the current administration
Barrack suggested that ISIS militants may have disguised themselves in government uniforms and that videos posted on social media were unreliable as they could be easily manipulated. He claimed, “Syrian soldiers did not enter the city. These atrocities are not being committed by Syrian regime forces. They are not even in the city because they agreed with Israel that they would not enter.”
Arguing that the risks in Syria are dangerously high and that there is no “succession plan” or viable alternative to the country’s new government, Barrack said, “There is no Plan B for this Syrian regime. If this Syrian regime fails, someone is trying to provoke its failure. To what end? There is no successor.”
When asked if Syria could follow the terrible scenarios of Libya and Afghanistan, he replied, “Yes, and even worse.”
The Julani government has not been hostile to Israel from the outset
Barrack confirmed that the US does not support Israel’s airstrikes on Syria, saying the attacks increase the “confusion” in Syria.
Barrack said his message to Israel is to engage in dialogue to address its concerns about Syria’s new leaders, and that the US could play the role of an “honest broker” to help resolve any concerns.
He said that the Julani government has stated from the beginning that it is not an enemy of Israel and could normalize relations when the time is right.
The special envoy claimed that the US does not dictate what Syria’s political structure should be, saying it demands nothing but stability, unity, justice, and inclusivity.
Barrack said, “If they establish a federalist government, that is their decision. And the answer to the problem is that everyone may now need to adapt.”
Lifting the Caesar Act in Congress will be made conditional
On Tuesday, the US House Financial Services Committee passed a bill introduced by New York Republican Congressman Mike Lawler that would allow President Donald Trump to permanently lift significant sanctions on Syria within two years, provided the new government meets a series of conditions, including the release of political prisoners arrested by the deposed former leader Bashar al-Assad.
Trump had already lifted many sanctions on Syria. However, many members of Congress from both parties are skeptical of Trump’s embrace of the new Syrian leader so quickly.
In this context, Lawler’s proposal to impose conditions on the remaining US sanctions has led to an unprecedented alliance between “conservatives” and “progressives” who prefer the complete removal of sanctions.
In another example of bipartisan cooperation, two centrist Democratic lawmakers, Brad Sherman of California and Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, helped Republicans advance the Lawler plan. Florida Representative Byron Donalds, who is close to Trump, voted “no” along with all other Democrats.
Lawler told Semafor, “The goal here is very clear: to ensure that this government can really establish itself and succeed. For that, of course, economic cooperation and the easing of sanctions need to begin.”
Nevertheless, the Representative added that he “thinks it would be foolish to lift all sanctions immediately without a truly stable situation on the ground,” pointing to the possibility of a “coup or the collapse of this newly established government.”
Lawler said he has been “in contact with members of the White House” about his legislation.
A 2-year transition period for the complete removal of sanctions
Donalds told Semafor, “I understand what Mike is trying to do, but I don’t think we should get ahead of the White House. A lot has changed on the ground; let’s give the president some time.”
Under current law, Trump has the authority to waive the remaining US sanctions on Syria under a law known as the Caesar Act every 180 days.
Lawler’s bill gives the new administration two years to certify that the new Syrian government has met the specified conditions before sanctions can be lifted completely.
Members of Congress who advocate for the complete removal of sanctions rather than Lawler’s solution include conservative Representative Joe Wilson, who called on the committee to “reconsider the measure,” and Representative Maxine Waters of California, the top Democrat on the Financial Services Committee.
Wilson said he supported an amendment proposed by Waters to Lawler’s bill on Tuesday, which was rejected.
Regarding Waters’ proposal, Wilson said, “Yes, she is right. It is very gratifying that the president has indicated he wants to give Syria a chance. The way to do that is to lift the sanctions completely so that the business community knows it can invest.”
Some Democrats were undecided before the vote. Greg Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Semafor it was a “delicate situation.”
“If you lift all the sanctions at once, you know what that means. At the same time, you want to make sure that progress is being made. Maybe when I get out, I can tell you exactly what I think,” Meeks said, ultimately voting against the bill.
Amendment for “reasonable steps to protect religious and ethnic minorities”
The president cannot permanently lift the sanctions imposed by the Caesar Act unless Congress repeals the law (or allows it to expire in 2029).
Lawler acknowledged that “the administration’s position will be vital” to securing enough support in the House and Senate.
On the other hand, he expressed concerns about lifting sanctions following the events in Suwayda last week, where sectarian violence led to the death of a US citizen.
Lawler voted yes after accepting an amendment that added a new condition for lifting sanctions: “reasonable steps to protect religious and ethnic minorities.”
As the Trump administration tries to include Syria in the Abraham Accords, Lawler expressed optimism that his proposal could be a useful tool in this regard.
In May, the president had promised the new Syrian president that sanctions would be eased if Damascus agreed to normalize relations with Tel Aviv.
“This can be used as a tool to help normalize economic ties with the Israelis in practice,” Lawler said.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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