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US-Europe productivity gap widens

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The US overtaking Europe in productivity has fuelled fears that the EU is facing a ‘competitiveness crisis’, with policymakers calling for more public and private investment.

New data released on Friday showed that productivity in the eurozone fell by 1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, while in the US it rose by 2.6 per cent over the same period, the Financial Times reported. Labour productivity growth in the US has been more than double that of the eurozone and the UK over the past two decades.

Bart van Ark, chief executive of the UK-based Productivity Institute, said: “In the long run, productivity growth in the US is expected to be higher than in Europe. Europe is not showing the same dynamism. This is widening the growth gap between the US and the EU,” said Bart van Ark.

Some economists argue that the US is growing faster than the eurozone partly because its population is younger, growing faster and working longer hours. But much of the output gap is due to the fact that people in the US produce more for every hour they work.

According to the FT, EU policymakers see this trend as deeply worrying and a reflection of a long-standing failure to catch up with US levels of private and public investment.

US worker productivity outperforms EU

Output per hour worked, a standard measure of labour productivity, has increased by more than 6 per cent in the US non-farm business sector since 2019, according to official data. This outpaces the eurozone and the UK, which grew by around 1 per cent over the same period.

In contrast to the ‘green’ stimulus in the US, the Eurozone has received less fiscal support from governments and has experienced a much larger rise in energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine. The fragmentation of Europe’s financial markets, fiscal policy and regulation also makes it more vulnerable to external pressures than the US.

While there is no doubt that short-term factors have fuelled the US recovery, some economists say there is more to it. Gilles Moëc, chief economist at insurance company Axa, said: “Productivity in the eurozone has stalled. Now that the recovery has been going on for so long, we have to think about the possibility that something structural is going on,” said Gilles Moëc, chief economist at insurance company Axa.

Moëc estimates that if eurozone productivity continues to lag the US by the same amount, GDP growth will be one percentage point lower each year.

European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Isabel Schnabel said last month that it was “more urgent than ever” for eurozone leaders to close the productivity gap with the US.

This is needed to tackle the “competitiveness crisis” as EU producers face higher energy prices and greater labour challenges than their American or Chinese counterparts, Schnabel said.

The ECB is also weighing when to cut record-high interest rates amid fears that falling productivity will increase labour costs for eurozone companies, raising the risk that inflation will remain high.

Schnabel said one of the main reasons for the eurozone’s weakness was its failure to capitalise on productivity gains from digital technologies, as the US did earlier. Schnabel said that promoting competition will be part of the solution, and called for faster and more effective implementation of the EU’s Next Generation Public Investment Programme.

Mario Draghi, the former head of the ECB, will report to the EU president later this year on more ambitious proposals to boost the EU’s competitiveness. Draghi is reported to have told the bloc’s finance ministers that they would need to find ‘enormous amounts of money, both public and private, in a relatively short period of time’ to boost investment to US levels.

EU decline is temporary, some economists say

However, not all economists are convinced that the recent US strength is evidence of a structural shift.

Erik Neilsen, chief economist at UniCredit, argues that the current weakness in the eurozone is a ‘statistical phenomenon’, as employers who struggled to hire in the post-credit upswing are now hoarding labour in the downturn. In his view, productivity could recover as the ECB’s tight policy squeezes demand until workers are eventually laid off.

Catherine Mann, an outside member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, also told the FT last month that while US labour productivity figures look ‘very attractive’, they are driven by demand factors, notably a budget deficit of over 6%.

By contrast, demand is more subdued in the eurozone and the UK, where the economy entered a technical recession in the fourth quarter.

Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics said there were reasons to be optimistic about European productivity. “If we are indeed on the verge of a new technology-driven productivity boom centred on artificial intelligence and related services, it would be very pessimistic to assume that it will bypass the eurozone altogether,” Vistesen said.

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AI spending heads toward $7 trillion as analysts warn of market bubble risks

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Massive financial resources directed into artificial intelligence technologies are driving companies into dangerous territory for global markets.

If expected productivity gains fail to materialize despite these immense capital flows, the artificial intelligence sector faces the risk of inflating into a giant bubble.

The Wall Street Journal reported that should such a scenario unfold, a widespread collapse capable of shaking the entire financial system and dragging down the broader market will become inevitable.

Estimates by McKinsey & Company project that global spending on data center construction alone could reach $7 trillion by 2030.

According to the newspaper, if these massive investments fail to deliver adequate productivity gains, the global economy will suffer a severe blow.

Should the sector as a whole turn out to be a bubble, the resulting damage will spread directly across the broader financial system.

While market observers note that a major crash—whether sooner or later—would drag all equity markets down with it, declines in AI-related stocks are currently being offset by gains in other sectors.

However, the first concrete signs of emerging vulnerability appeared in the memory chip market, where a sector-specific bubble formed and burst within just four months.

South Korean market shaken by sharp drop

In June, shares of South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix, the world’s two largest memory chip makers, sank by more than 12%.

The sharp sell-off pulled down the country’s broader stock index. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index dropped 10%, triggering an automatic 20-minute trading halt.

Growing investor anxiety over artificial intelligence triggered the steep decline in the two giant companies, which together account for half of the total market capitalization of the Kospi index.

US equity markets also felt the ripple effects during the same period. The Nasdaq index closed down 2.2%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, marking their worst single-day performances in two weeks.

Nevertheless, The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the disruption has not yet produced catastrophic consequences for the rest of the market.

While the bursting of massive historical bubbles resulted in disaster for national economies, smaller and localized bubbles in recent years have failed to paralyze broader economic growth.

The primary reason for this resilience is that these recent investments were not predominantly funded through leverage and bank credit.

When those localized bubbles burst, investors suffered wealth losses, but the financial system remained intact.

Russell Napier, a global macroeconomic strategist and keeper of the Library of Mistakes, a financial history archive in Edinburgh, evaluated the current market posture:

“The banking system is in superb condition, which means there will always be enough credit available to blow the next bubble.”

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Anthropic AI models breach corporate systems after escaping isolated test environment

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Anthropic has announced that several of its advanced artificial intelligence models escaped an isolated testing environment and accessed the live internet.

In a review published Thursday night, the company stated that in three separate incidents dating back to April, the models independently breached the systems of multiple companies without the AI developer’s knowledge.

Anthropic said the incidents involved an unreleased internal research test model, alongside its Opus 4.7 and Mythos 5 models.

Mythos was made available last month to a limited audience composed of technology companies and cybersecurity researchers, an initiative also known as Project Glasswing.

The AI developer did not disclose which companies were breached, but said the affected firms were informed of the incidents on Monday.

Anthropic noted that it conducted the review after OpenAI revealed last week that two of its most powerful models had breached containment, escaped their testing environment, and infiltrated several entities, including the AI platform Hugging Face and cloud provider Modal Labs.

System misconfiguration allowed internet access

Anthropic stated that it examined more than 140,000 tests to find evidence of whether Claude could gain access to the internet from test environments designed to be isolated.

The evaluations included “capture-the-flag” exercises, in which Claude was instructed to breach other systems to obtain information. This is a method frequently used by experts to assess a model’s hacking capabilities.

The San Francisco-based company stated that a “misconfiguration” in systems operated by Anthropic and its testing partner left the models with live internet access, enabling them to infiltrate external systems.

Anthropic said it approached remediation efforts “with full ownership of the responsibility.”

Neither Anthropic nor the affected organizations detected the unauthorized entries at the time they occurred.

Anthropic added that it may examine its logs more extensively, noting that the findings gave the company “cautious optimism” that such risks can be overcome through increased investment and more stringent safeguards.

David Allott, a cybersecurity expert, told the BBC: “The overarching lesson here is not that AI has developed fundamentally new attack vectors.”

“Instead, it means that AI agents can combine capabilities, acquire credentials and system access to act autonomously, while adapting scope and scale at machine speed,” Allott said.

The developments come as technology companies invest billions of dollars to develop AI agents capable of independently executing a range of tasks, from research and customer support to cybersecurity.

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Elon Musk’s America PAC plans $100 million field operation for 2026 Republican midterm push

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Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is returning to the political spending arena with a new field program designed to help elect Republicans in at least eight states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Musk has authorized his political action committee, America PAC, to spend between $100 million and $120 million on a new ground game focused on conservative voter turnout for the 2026 midterms, according to a Thursday report by The New York Times, which cited two unnamed sources informed about the plans.

America PAC funneled more than $250 million into Donald Trump’s reelection campaign in 2024, a expenditure that established Musk as the largest political donor in US history.

The New York Times reported that America PAC is reviving its spending initiatives and has reached out to other Republicans in recent weeks regarding the new field operations.

The effort is also being coordinated with other Republican Party spending groups, according to the report.

The newspaper identified targeted Senate races in the states of Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, while noting that discussions are also underway regarding contests in North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.

The political action committee is additionally expected to deploy funds for House of Representatives elections in Washington, Wisconsin, and California.

The news comes a day after Axios first reported that America PAC’s operations were resuming, with a focus on driving Republican turnout during the non-presidential election cycle.

A spokesperson for America PAC declined to comment on The New York Times report but confirmed the Axios reporting to The Hill. The spokesperson stated that the spending group was “excited” to contribute to efforts to maintain the Republican majorities in Congress this fall.

“The President’s political team and the rest of the GOP apparatus have built a world-class operation that has Republicans well-positioned to make history and retain control of Congress this fall,” America PAC spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in a statement. “We’re excited to be part of the team again.”

The campaign will reportedly target Republican voters through door-to-door canvassing, mailers, and digital advertisements, enabling other groups to concentrate their resources on television advertising.

The developments were reported days after Musk told The Economist magazine that he had gotten “carried away” during his brief foray into politics.

The SpaceX CEO entered the political arena during the 2024 election, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Trump’s presidential campaign and accompanying the candidate on the campaign trail.

Musk went on to lead Trump’s cost-cutting initiative, known as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which executed sweeping employment and funding reductions across the federal government. Those efforts sparked controversy for Musk and his enterprise empire, including Tesla, whose shares fell sharply during his period of political involvement.

Musk departed the White House in late May 2025, and DOGE officially terminated its operations on July 4.

Shortly after leaving government, Musk and Trump engaged in a public dispute over the president’s sweeping spending legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” During the friction, Musk threatened to form a third party, though the initiative never materialized.

Musk and the US President appeared to resolve their differences last year, with the tech billionaire most recently joining Trump alongside other technology leaders on a trip to China in May.

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