Diplomacy
‘Taiwanese politician’s visit is part of US strategy to contain China’
China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai’s visit to the United States, saying Beijing will take strong steps to protect its sovereignty. Experts described the visit as part of the US strategy to “contain” China.
Lai, a candidate to become Taiwan’s next president in elections in January, landed in New York on his way to Paraguay for the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected President Santiago Pena.
Arriving in New York late Saturday, Lai was greeted by Ingrid Larson, Director of the Washington Office of the American Institute, the “de facto mission” of the United States in Taiwan, and Hsiao Bi-khim, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York.
Lai met with Taiwanese living in the United States at a private dinner, where he delivered a speech advocating for the independence of the island.
Lai is also expected to make another “stopover” in San Francisco on his way back to Taipei on Wednesday.
Beijing: One-China principle and China’s sovereignty are violated
Shortly after Lai arrived in New York on a scheduled flight from Taipei, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that it “opposes any visit to the United States by Taiwan independence supporters.”
Describing Lai as “clinging stubbornly to the separatist position for ‘independence’,” the statement said, “We firmly oppose any visit by ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists to the US in any name or under whatever pretext.”
The statement noted that the arrangements engaged by the US and Taiwan authorities for Lai’s political activities in the name of a “stopover” violate the principle of “one China” and undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Emphasizing that the Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests and a “red line” that must not be crossed, the statement said, “urge the US to abide by the one-China principle and to deliver on its commitment not to support Taiwan’s independence.”
The statement said that the incident “once again shows the fundamental cause of the continued tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the Taiwan authorities’ attempt to solicit US support for ‘Taiwan independence’ and that the US is bent on using Taiwan to contain China.” The statement added that China is closely following the developments and will “take resolute and strong measures” to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Election campaign
Laura Rosenberger, president of the American Institute in Taiwan, said on X (Twitter) that she will host Lai in San Francisco on his way home on Wednesday.
Currently a candidate for the separatist Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) 2024 election for Taiwan’s regional leader, Lai has been trying to persuade voters on the island and supporters in the United States with narratives of “Taiwan independence” versus “Chinese reunification” and “democracy versus authoritarianism.”
On the other hand, Lai’s visits come at a time when Beijing and Washington are trying to improve relations.
This also includes a possible visit to the United States by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which could pave the way for a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.
The Taiwan Foreign Ministry announced earlier this month that Lai would attend the August 15 inauguration of newly elected President Santiago Pena of Paraguay as a representative of Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen and make “stopovers” in New York and San Francisco prior to and after his trip.
Paraguay is among the few countries that officially recognize Taiwan.
Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen also made “stopovers” in the United States in early April before and after her visits to Guatemala and Belize and met with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
In response to the visit, the Chinese military organized a 3-day military drill around the island.
In the context of the “One China” principle, Beijing opposes Taiwan establishing independent diplomatic relations with countries around the world and considers these talks as “interference in its internal affairs”.
Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal: Proxy war against China over Taiwan
Evaluating the Taiwanese leader’s visit and the US policy on Taiwan, Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal said that the Washington administration is waging a proxy war against China over Taiwan.
Noting that especially if Biden is re-elected, the US will try to strengthen its position against China and accelerate the proxy war over Taiwan, Ünal stated that this is how he sees things going if there is no radical change in American foreign policy.
‘Ideal scenario for the American arms industry’
“From the point of view of the American arms industry, this is the ideal scenario,” Prof. Ünal said, adding, “Think of the investment in the arms industry in Ukraine, and think of the dimensions of a struggle against China. In addition, the US will arm its allies in the Asia-Pacific in such a situation, which it has already started to do. So the Pentagon budget would also be increased in such a situation,” he continued.
‘It would have a negative impact on the American economy and society’
Noting that this is a great scenario for the US deep state, Ünal emphasized that if they insist on this scenario, it will blow up in America’s hands: “Even if certain groups benefit from it, this scenario will have a fundamentally bad impact on the American economy. There is no budget for the basic expenses of the country, but there is a budget for weapons. Of course, this would deepen the problems in the country, accelerate social, social and economic disintegration.”
He added that if US expectations in Ukraine collapse, then it will be difficult for the US to engage in such a struggle with China.
Prof. Ünal also drew attention to the pro-independence groups in Taiwan and suggested that these groups may have forced the US to make these visits in order to confirm their last trump card against “reunification”.
Prof. Dr. Barış Doster: Part of Washington’s strategy to contain China
Stating that Lai’s visit should be read within the framework of broader US policies, Prof. Dr. Barış Doster said:
“First of all, this visit of the politician in Taiwan cannot be considered independently from the US strategy of provoking China and encircling and encircling China from its immediate vicinity, and in this context, the plans to include countries in China’s immediate vicinity in this strategy through organizations such as AUKUS and QUAD. Former US Speaker of the House Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was one of the pioneering steps of this strategy. Obviously, such moves by the US will continue.”
Secondly, emphasizing economic factors, Doster said that the US is lagging behind in the economic race with China, and therefore Washington, aware of the fact that it cannot prevent Beijing economically, has no other leverage left but to increase such tensions and strengthen its military buildup to encircle China.
‘Contrary to US promises to China’
These actions are in violation of the agreements and promises the US has made with China, Doster said, adding that these provocations will continue, but the US has no intention of risking a direct confrontation and military escalation with China over it.
The US administration had adopted the ‘One China’ principle in its diplomatic recognition of China. In 1979, it declared this in writing. At the first meeting between China and the US in 1972, the US said, “I recognize Taiwan and China as one piece.” By 1979, the parties mutually recognized each other. In 1979, the US said, ‘I no longer recognize the government in Taiwan as the representative of China, but rather the People’s Republic of China established by the Chinese Communist Party. It recognized Taiwan as part of mainland China, that is, the one-China principle. “We respect the One China principle and will continue our relations with Taiwan at the economic, cultural and informal levels,” the United States said in 1979.
Since then, however, the US has taken many actions that violate this principle, systematically sending arms to Taiwan, quadrupling the number of troops on the island, the Pentagon allocating a special budget to support Taiwan, and Washington signing a trade agreement with Taiwan. Diplomatically, the United States has also continued to violate, hosting the leader of Taiwan in the country, as well as a visit by former House of Representatives Pelosi.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
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