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Beijing and Moscow could use SCO for counter-terrorism cooperation

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Terrorist attacks last month, one in Moscow and another a few days later in Pakistan that killed five Chinese workers, have raised alarm bells in Russia and China, key members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security bloc.

With China set to chair the SCO from July, analysts say they expect Beijing to focus more on counter-terrorism in the region and encourage greater security cooperation among member states.

Analysts also believe the attacks will bring Russia and China closer together as they seek to eliminate foreign forces they believe are trying to destabilise the region.

Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia, told the South China Morning Post that while counter-terrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks are likely to “refocus attention on this issue”.

Counter-terrorism to top agenda

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to reduce border tensions, the SCO has traditionally focused on fighting the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.

As the group has expanded to include India, Pakistan and, most recently, Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues such as economic cooperation.

Gunmen opened fire on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, killing at least 140 people in the deadliest attack in Russia for two decades.

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), an Afghanistan-based branch of Daesh.

Less than a week later, a suicide bomber killed five Chinese workers in northwestern Pakistan, the latest in a series of terrorist attacks in the South Asian country apparently targeting Chinese interests. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Russia, Pakistan and Iran, all members of the SCO, have suffered attacks organised by ISIL-H within their borders.

“Officially, counter-terrorism will be the main theme of the SCO,” said David Arase, professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.

“If an actor outside Central Asia, such as Russia, is attacked, China and its interests in Central Asia may also be targeted,” he told the Post: “ISIS-H represents the ‘three evils’ – terrorism, separatism and religious extremism – that are China’s nightmare because it wants an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”

In the wake of the two attacks in Russia and Pakistan, the bloc may seek to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation through joint training exercises or increased intelligence sharing and coordination against armed groups such as ISIL-H, Arase said.

But it can be difficult to decide who does what within the organisation in an “environment of conflicting interests and mistrust”, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states have increased.

India and China, for example, remain at odds over conflicting border claims and Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects. India’s relationship with Pakistan also remains strained.

Thomas Wilkins, Associate Professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that the fight against terrorism would be a “central theme” of the SCO and a “prominent” item on its agenda.

He said the terrorist attack in Russia ticked the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, two of the “three evils” the SCO was established to combat.

Wilkins said the SCO already had a regional counter-terrorism structure for sharing information, and resources had been mobilised in response to the Moscow attacks.

Rapprochement within the bloc against the West could increase

In addition to an SCO response, the recent terrorist attacks could bring countries within the bloc closer together against actions they believe are backed by the West, analysts say.
Beijing and Moscow may call on SCO to cooperate against terrorism

Russian officials blamed not only Ukraine but also the West for last month’s terrorist attack in Moscow, claiming that US and British intelligence had helped Ukraine organise the attack.

“They are trying to make us believe that the terrorist attack was not carried out by the Kiev regime, but by supporters of radical Islamic ideology, possibly members of the Afghan branch [of the Islamic State],” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said last month: “This is evidenced by the fact that as soon as the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall was reported, the West began to insist that Ukraine was not involved in the crime.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping has also repeatedly called on SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by fomenting unrest.

“We must be extremely vigilant against foreign powers provoking a ‘new Cold War’ and creating conflicts in the region, and resolutely oppose any interference in any country’s internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.

Experts say the SCO, which was created to resolve border disputes, has evolved into a Moscow- and Beijing-led organisation that provides security governance in Central Asia, where the threat of terrorism exists and could spill over into Russia and China.Beyond its institutional functions, the SCO also serves to keep Western powers such as the US out of Central Asia and to provide a common platform against “Western hegemony”.”Since its continuous expansion, it has formed a geopolitical bloc encompassing most of Eastern Eurasia, in contrast to the NATO bloc of Western Eurasia,” says Thomas Wilkins. The SCO was created in part to prevent “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continue to work closely to minimise such possibilities.

Li Lifan, head of the SCO Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to fight the “three evils”, adding that the SCO will help deepen cooperation between countries.

“Today, the global security situation is complex and extremist ideas are constantly spreading. Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double-active era’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s safety of life and property,” Li said, adding that after assuming the chairmanship, China will not only strengthen regional anti-terrorism cooperation, but also tackle transnational organised crime and modern technology crime to “safeguard regional and even global peace and stability”.

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Chinese satellite company to challenge Musk’s Starlink in Brazil

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A Chinese state-backed company is set to launch a satellite internet service in Brazil, aiming to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Spacesail, a developer of high-speed internet services via satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), made the announcement during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Brazil. The visit marked the signing of an expanded partnership with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This development follows ongoing tensions between Musk, owner of SpaceX and its Starlink subsidiary, and Brazilian authorities over allegations of misinformation on his X social media network.

According to Chinese state media, Spacesail has partnered with Brazil’s state-owned Telebrás to deliver satellite communications and broadband internet to underserved areas.

A spokesperson for the Brazilian communications ministry stated that the companies would assess demand in regions lacking fiber-optic infrastructure, with plans to launch the service by 2026.

“Spacesail is committed to being Brazil’s long-term partner,” CEO Jie Zheng told reporters on Tuesday.

Musk-Lula tensions highlight Starlink’s market dominance

Brazil is actively encouraging competitors to Starlink, which controls nearly 50% of the satellite internet market in Latin America.

Earlier this year, Musk faced legal challenges in Brazil after refusing to comply with court orders to remove accounts allegedly promoting extremist content on X. This led to a temporary ban on the platform and fines for Starlink, further straining Musk’s relationship with Brazil’s left-wing government.

Tensions resurfaced recently when Brazil’s First Lady, Rosângela Lula da Silva, addressed Musk during an event on social media regulation.

Spacesail’s announcement aligns with concerns over waning U.S. influence in South America, often regarded as Washington’s “backyard.”

During his diplomatic tour, Xi Jinping attended the opening of a Chinese-built mega-port in Peru before traveling to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit. In Brasília, he and Lula upgraded their bilateral relationship to a “Sino-Brazilian community with a shared future”, emphasizing a fairer, more sustainable world.

The two leaders signed 37 agreements spanning agriculture, trade, infrastructure, technology, and industry. However, Brazil declined to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signaling confidence in securing Chinese investments without full membership.

Operating under the name Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, Spacesail plans to accelerate satellite deployment with a target of 15,000 LEO satellites by 2030. The company launched its first rounds of satellites in August and October this year, showcasing its rapid growth and potential to disrupt the market.

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China refuses to meet with U.S. Defence Secretary

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China has reportedly refused to meet with the United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus in Laos this week.

According to CNN, Austin sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, during the event as part of ongoing efforts to maintain military communication channels between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. However, a senior defence official traveling with Austin in Laos revealed that China rejected the offer, citing the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan as a key factor.

Three weeks ago, the United States approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which included the provision of advanced surface-to-air missiles—marking the first time Taiwan has received such systems. China condemned the sale and vowed to take “resolute countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty.

China’s decision to decline the meeting in Laos follows just days after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held what the U.S. described as a “cordial and constructive” meeting in San Francisco. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that the dialogue was “wide-ranging” and not focused on mediating between Beijing and the incoming U.S. administration.

Relations between the two nations have remained strained since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, which prompted China to sever multiple lines of communication with the United States, including those related to military and climate cooperation. While military-to-military communication had recently resumed following the Biden-Xi meeting, this latest refusal highlights continued tensions in U.S.-China relations.

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G20 calls for more aid for Gaza, two-state solution and peace in Ukraine

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The leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies issued a joint statement on Monday calling for a global deal to fight hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The joint statement was approved by members of the group, but not unanimously. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and reforms to the United Nations Security Council to allow it to expand beyond its current five permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting, which officially ends on Wednesday, experts doubted that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would be able to persuade the assembled leaders to reach an agreement at a meeting fraught with uncertainty over the new administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and heightened global tensions due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Argentina objected to some language in early drafts and was the only country not to endorse the entire document.

Still, the fact that a joint statement was issued was a ‘success’ for Lula.

The declaration condemned wars and called for peace, but did not condemn any crimes.

Gaza and Ukraine on the agenda

Referring to the ‘catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon’, the declaration stressed the need to increase humanitarian aid and better protect civilians.

“We reaffirm the Palestinian right to self-determination and reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of a two-state solution, with Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace,” it said.

Israeli attacks have so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza and more than 3,500 in Lebanon, according to local health officials.

Biden, who met with G20 leaders before the statement was issued, suggested that ‘Hamas is solely responsible for the war’ and called on other leaders to ‘increase pressure on Hamas’ to accept a ceasefire agreement.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles, allowing it to strike Russia, was also on the agenda for the meeting.

“The United States strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. I think everyone around this table should do the same,” Biden said at the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting, sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead. The G20 statement highlighted the ‘humanitarian suffering in Ukraine’ and called for peace, without mentioning Russia.

Billionaire tax and the fight against hunger

The statement called for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula also supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people worldwide, including about 100 in Latin America.

The declaration also included a clause promoting gender equality.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration but had problems with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Far-right President Javier Milei described the agenda as a ‘supranational programme of a socialist nature’. He also objected to calls to regulate hate speech on social media, which Milei said violated national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Much of the declaration focuses on Lula’s priority of eradicating hunger.

The Brazilian government stressed that Lula’s launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty on Monday was at least as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 countries had signed the plan, the Brazilian government said. The plan is also supported by organisations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Call for United Nations reform

Leaders have pledged to work for ‘transformative reform’ of the UN Security Council to ‘adapt it to the realities and demands of the 21st century, making it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable’.

Nearly eighty years after the founding of the United Nations, almost all countries agree that the Security Council needs to be expanded to reflect the world of the 21st century and to include more voices. The main dilemma and the biggest disagreement are how to do this. The G20 statement did not answer this question.

“We call for an expanded composition of the Security Council that improves the representation of underrepresented and under-represented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

Shortly before the UN summit in September, the United States announced its support for two new non-permanent seats for African countries and a first non-permanent seat for small island developing states. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – prefer each other’s proposals for permanent seats. The larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries, including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico, wants additional non-permanent seats for longer terms.

Xi backs calls for reform and equality

Speaking at the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the interests of the so-called global south, which includes emerging economies, and called for reform of international institutions and consensus on how to achieve parity in finance, trade, digital technology, and the environment.

The Chinese leader said artificial intelligence should not be ‘a game of rich countries and the rich’ and stressed the need to improve digital governance for inclusive economic globalization.

Xi reiterated host Brazil’s call for greater economic equality, including poverty eradication and reform of institutions such as global creditors for developing countries.

Xi called for reform of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism to return to normal operation “as soon as possible”. The mechanism remains in limbo as the U.S. has blocked appointments to the Appellate Body over concerns of judicial activism.

China had filed a dispute settlement case at the WTO after the European Union imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last month.

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