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Beijing and Moscow could use SCO for counter-terrorism cooperation

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Terrorist attacks last month, one in Moscow and another a few days later in Pakistan that killed five Chinese workers, have raised alarm bells in Russia and China, key members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security bloc.

With China set to chair the SCO from July, analysts say they expect Beijing to focus more on counter-terrorism in the region and encourage greater security cooperation among member states.

Analysts also believe the attacks will bring Russia and China closer together as they seek to eliminate foreign forces they believe are trying to destabilise the region.

Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia, told the South China Morning Post that while counter-terrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks are likely to “refocus attention on this issue”.

Counter-terrorism to top agenda

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to reduce border tensions, the SCO has traditionally focused on fighting the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.

As the group has expanded to include India, Pakistan and, most recently, Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues such as economic cooperation.

Gunmen opened fire on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, killing at least 140 people in the deadliest attack in Russia for two decades.

Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), an Afghanistan-based branch of Daesh.

Less than a week later, a suicide bomber killed five Chinese workers in northwestern Pakistan, the latest in a series of terrorist attacks in the South Asian country apparently targeting Chinese interests. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Russia, Pakistan and Iran, all members of the SCO, have suffered attacks organised by ISIL-H within their borders.

“Officially, counter-terrorism will be the main theme of the SCO,” said David Arase, professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.

“If an actor outside Central Asia, such as Russia, is attacked, China and its interests in Central Asia may also be targeted,” he told the Post: “ISIS-H represents the ‘three evils’ – terrorism, separatism and religious extremism – that are China’s nightmare because it wants an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”

In the wake of the two attacks in Russia and Pakistan, the bloc may seek to strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation through joint training exercises or increased intelligence sharing and coordination against armed groups such as ISIL-H, Arase said.

But it can be difficult to decide who does what within the organisation in an “environment of conflicting interests and mistrust”, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states have increased.

India and China, for example, remain at odds over conflicting border claims and Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects. India’s relationship with Pakistan also remains strained.

Thomas Wilkins, Associate Professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that the fight against terrorism would be a “central theme” of the SCO and a “prominent” item on its agenda.

He said the terrorist attack in Russia ticked the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, two of the “three evils” the SCO was established to combat.

Wilkins said the SCO already had a regional counter-terrorism structure for sharing information, and resources had been mobilised in response to the Moscow attacks.

Rapprochement within the bloc against the West could increase

In addition to an SCO response, the recent terrorist attacks could bring countries within the bloc closer together against actions they believe are backed by the West, analysts say.
Beijing and Moscow may call on SCO to cooperate against terrorism

Russian officials blamed not only Ukraine but also the West for last month’s terrorist attack in Moscow, claiming that US and British intelligence had helped Ukraine organise the attack.

“They are trying to make us believe that the terrorist attack was not carried out by the Kiev regime, but by supporters of radical Islamic ideology, possibly members of the Afghan branch [of the Islamic State],” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said last month: “This is evidenced by the fact that as soon as the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall was reported, the West began to insist that Ukraine was not involved in the crime.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping has also repeatedly called on SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by fomenting unrest.

“We must be extremely vigilant against foreign powers provoking a ‘new Cold War’ and creating conflicts in the region, and resolutely oppose any interference in any country’s internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.

Experts say the SCO, which was created to resolve border disputes, has evolved into a Moscow- and Beijing-led organisation that provides security governance in Central Asia, where the threat of terrorism exists and could spill over into Russia and China.Beyond its institutional functions, the SCO also serves to keep Western powers such as the US out of Central Asia and to provide a common platform against “Western hegemony”.”Since its continuous expansion, it has formed a geopolitical bloc encompassing most of Eastern Eurasia, in contrast to the NATO bloc of Western Eurasia,” says Thomas Wilkins. The SCO was created in part to prevent “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continue to work closely to minimise such possibilities.

Li Lifan, head of the SCO Centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to fight the “three evils”, adding that the SCO will help deepen cooperation between countries.

“Today, the global security situation is complex and extremist ideas are constantly spreading. Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double-active era’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s safety of life and property,” Li said, adding that after assuming the chairmanship, China will not only strengthen regional anti-terrorism cooperation, but also tackle transnational organised crime and modern technology crime to “safeguard regional and even global peace and stability”.

DIPLOMACY

EU, Mercosur aim to finalize trade deal by early December

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The European Commission and Mercosur countries are working to complete negotiations on a long-anticipated trade deal by early December, sources familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.

Farmers are expected to rally against the deal in Brussels on Wednesday, with additional protests in France later in the week.

The upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro was initially seen as the ideal opportunity to finalize the agreement, which has been under negotiation for nearly 25 years.

“All the cards are on the table,” said one person familiar with the EU-Mercosur talks. “They want to ensure a near-finalized deal, so Ursula [von der Leyen] doesn’t make the trip in vain.” However, the signing of the agreement might be delayed over concerns that China could overshadow the summit.

A European Commission official confirmed that face-to-face talks are scheduled for the week of November 25 in Brazil to resolve any outstanding issues. While the official refrained from specifying a completion date, they emphasized that the Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia—are pushing to sign the agreement promptly.

Uruguay is set to host the Mercosur summit from December 2–4, with Argentina, under newly elected Javier Milei, assuming the bloc’s presidency.

China concerns accelerate EU-Mercosur deal timeline

This “cows-for-cars” trade deal would eliminate trade barriers and establish a common market encompassing around 800 million people, representing 20% of global GDP. For European countries, particularly Germany, this agreement is viewed as overdue, especially given China’s expanding economic footprint in South America, where European firms are increasingly being sidelined.

“If we don’t reach a trade agreement with [Mercosur], China will inevitably fill the void,” remarked Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign minister, on Tuesday. Citing data, she added that Chinese investment in Latin America surged 34-fold between 2020 and 2022.

Those familiar with the negotiations indicated that certain issues remain unresolved, including public procurement regulations, environmental provisions, and the legal structure of the agreement.

Mercosur nations are particularly keen on securing more flexibility from the EU and additional time for local firms to compete with European counterparts. Brazil has also expressed a desire to protect its domestic automotive industry from EU imports, especially electric vehicles.

France’s reluctance and Macron’s challenges

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas recently stated to POLITICO that Mercosur countries are eager to finalize the deal before the Mercosur summit. However, Primas remains skeptical that the agreement will enable the EU to effectively counter China’s influence in Latin America.

Amid concerns over a potential surge in agricultural imports, France successfully blocked the Mercosur negotiations in January, just as they were nearing completion. This time, however, President Emmanuel Macron faces a tougher challenge, especially after recent electoral setbacks in the European Parliament and National Assembly.

In a recent letter published in Le Monde, over 600 French MPs from both parliamentary chambers urged von der Leyen not to proceed with the deal, citing unmet democratic, economic, environmental, and social standards for an agreement with Mercosur.

Paris falls short of blocking coalition

Despite recent efforts to secure opposition, Paris is unlikely to gather the qualified minority—representing at least 35% of the EU population—needed to block the deal when it comes to a vote among EU member states.

France has also launched a diplomatic campaign to persuade other EU nations to oppose the agreement. However, two diplomats with direct knowledge report that Italy has not been swayed.

Italy remains cautious in supporting the deal, wary of the potential for political fallout like that seen in France.

‘France’s opposition is symbolic; the battle is lost’

Over the weekend, Macron traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to visit Buenos Aires on November 20.

Although French ministers have vehemently opposed the deal and increased efforts to build a blocking minority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has kept a low profile. Barnier is expected to meet with von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels today (November 13) and will likely address the Mercosur agreement, which he opposes in its current form.

Critics argue that France’s resistance is mostly symbolic, and that Paris has already lost this battle.

For years, France has insisted on incorporating the Paris Agreement and enacting legally binding deforestation commitments as part of the Mercosur deal. In response, the European Commission has indicated its intent to support French demands in the final phase of negotiations, although Mercosur countries have repeatedly signaled their resistance to any form of sanctions.

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Japan, UK to launch bilateral economic dialogue ahead of potential Trump tariffs

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Japan and the UK are set to initiate an economic version of the “two plus two” dialogue—a regular meeting between foreign and trade ministers—due to rising concerns about possible tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, are scheduled to meet in Rio de Janeiro during the upcoming G20 Summit on Monday, November 18. According to officials from both governments, the goal is to establish a bilateral economic dialogue.

This development follows Trump’s recent election victory and his anticipated return to the White House in January. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other nations, including Japan and the UK.

The Japan-UK economic dialogue aims to strengthen cooperation in upholding the international economic order, including principles of free trade.

Topics at the meeting will cover a wide range of strategic and geopolitical issues. Both partners are expected to explore ways to initiate a trade dialogue with the U.S. to prevent a potential tariff hike. Sources indicate that countermeasures may also be on the table if U.S. import tariffs do increase.

In 2023, 20% of Japan’s exports and 15% of the UK’s exports were destined for the U.S., underscoring the potential economic impact of increased tariffs.

Additionally, the UK hopes that a strengthened partnership with Japan can help offset its reduced influence since leaving the European Union (EU) in 2020.

During the previous Trump administration, the EU (of which the UK was then a member) imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and motorcycles in response to Washington’s high import duties.

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Azerbaijan plans to boost oil and gas production as it hosts COP29

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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. As the host nation, Azerbaijan is also looking to expand its fossil fuel production, positioning itself at the intersection of climate policy and energy expansion.

According to the Financial Times, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) is set to increase production of new fossil fuel sources during the COP29 summit. The summit, a key gathering on global climate change, underscores a paradox for Azerbaijan: pledging climate action while pursuing expanded oil and gas output.

A report by campaign group Global Witness, which analyzed data from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, estimates that 44% of SOCAR’s production will be new oil and gas by 2050—the second-highest proportion among national oil companies globally. This report examined production projections based on both developed and undeveloped fields as well as undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new long-term oil and gas projects conflict with the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the target set by the Paris Agreement. This expansion aligns Azerbaijan with Europe’s aim to diversify energy sources, especially given the EU’s push to replace Russian gas following the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, SOCAR has increased production in recent years as Europe seeks to replace Russian natural gas with resources from other nations, including Azerbaijan. This has drawn criticism, particularly as Azerbaijan—through Muhtar Babayev, COP29 President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources—continues to call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

At COP28 last year in Dubai, almost 200 nations committed to phasing out fossil fuels by mid-century. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has signed multiple oil and gas deals since securing COP29 hosting rights, including SOCAR’s first international investment in upstream oil and gas—a $468 million stake in UAE gas projects.

“Azerbaijan is Europe’s strategic supplier of natural gas and is expanding capacity to meet European energy demands after the 2022 supply disruptions,” a COP29 spokesperson stated. Additionally, Azerbaijan is “expanding its renewable energy exports to serve the region and European markets,” he added. SOCAR did not respond to requests for comment.

Azerbaijan’s COP presidency has sparked criticism, echoing concerns raised during the UAE’s COP28 role. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN climate panel, expressed disappointment: “It is deeply disturbing that they can’t even seem to draw a ‘sanitary cordon’ around the COP presidency to prevent fossil fuel interests from undermining its purpose.”

Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard—attending COP29—remarked that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy also includes renewable energy initiatives, with Ørsted, a prominent wind energy company, present at the summit. However, European diplomats told the Financial Times that Azerbaijani officials have raised gas deal discussions alongside climate negotiations, mainly in relation to replacing Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine, with this contract ending soon.

According to Bloomberg, companies in Hungary and Slovakia are finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to substitute gas from the Ukrainian pipeline. Energy analysts have cautioned that this agreement could mask continued Russian gas flows. Additionally, a recent report from Chatham House highlighted Azerbaijan’s strategy to secure long-term European gas supply agreements.

“By positioning itself at the heart of the multilateral climate process, the Azerbaijani government may seek to shape the global energy transition dialogue to ensure its oil and gas reserves remain profitable as long as possible,” the report suggests.

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