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CDU motion passes with AfD support, breaching German ‘firewall’

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Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) have taken a significant step, potentially breaching the established “firewall” policy against the far-right, by passing a motion on immigration with the support of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). This action marks a notable shift in German politics.

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the main opposition CDU, announced the party’s new strategy last Friday following a knife attack in Aschaffenburg. He stated that his party would pursue non-binding motions “regardless of who voted in favor of them.” The attack involved an Afghan national, who had come to Germany as an asylum seeker and was subsequently arrested on suspicion of murder.

Merz’s move was widely viewed as a departure from established norms. Germany’s “firewall” has traditionally aimed to prevent any targeted cooperation between mainstream parties and the far-right.

While it was unclear whether the two CDU/CSU motions would pass, the main motion was narrowly approved with 348 votes in favor, 344 against, and ten abstentions.

The combined support from the CDU/CSU, the AfD, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), and some independent members marked the first instance in the history of the modern German parliament where a motion passed solely with the backing of the AfD. The second motion was rejected.

Merz defended his party’s actions against criticisms, while members of the SPD shouted “shame on you” at Merz and the CDU/CSU following the result. The current minority government, caused by the collapse of Scholz’s coalition, has created opportunities for new majorities.

Merz stated that he did not desire AfD support, but in a speech prior to the vote, he asserted that he preferred to change the current migration policy, which he believes contributed to the attack, rather than maintain the status quo.

Merz’s motion calls for the government to implement permanent border controls and to turn back all asylum seekers at the border, among other measures. The plan would deny entry to asylum seekers without a valid identity card or entry document, tighten immigration procedures, and impose stricter penalties for illegal entry.

Rolf Mützenich, the SPD parliamentary group leader, described the CDU/CSU’s actions as an abandonment of the political center of the parliament. He further stated that the vote, which occurred hours after the parliament commemorated the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp, would be a historic event.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz sharply criticized the CDU/CSU after the vote, stating that migration regulations are an integral part of Germany’s legal order. He emphasized that the CDU/CSU motion contradicted both the Federal Constitution and EU law.

Britta Haßelmann, parliamentary leader of the Greens, remarked to Merz, “When you look at the face of the AfD, you realize what has happened today, and you are responsible for it.”

Merz defended his position, saying he was “not seeking a majority in this parliament outside the democratic center.” He added, “If there has been a [different] majority today, I regret that.”

The AfD, however, celebrated the vote as a “historic moment.” Bernd Baumann, the party’s chief spokesman, stated, “Mr. Merz, you helped make this happen.” Baumann argued that this marked the start of a new era of cooperation with the CDU/CSU.

“Today is a historic moment. It means the end of the red-green coalition and the beginning of a new era in Germany. We will lead this change,” Baumann said.

AfD co-chairwoman and chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel, accused mainstream parties of disrespecting German voters by their attitude towards her party. “The so-called firewall is nothing more than an anti-democratic cartel agreement aimed at excluding millions of voters,” Weidel said during the Bundestag debate.

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German elections pave the way for a potential CDU-SPD grand coalition

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After the 23 February German federal elections, all eyes turned to the coalition scenarios and the program of the next chancellor. With the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerging as the leading party, it is almost certain that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor and form the government.

At this point, since the CDU has not been able to secure a majority, the question of who will knock on the door for a coalition is on the agenda. Merz and his party, which closed the door to the second-ranked Alternative for Germany (AfD), are likely to mobilize for a “grand coalition” with the SPD.

Looking at the numbers, the fact that the FDP, the junior partner of the previous traffic-light coalition, and the new left-wing party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), failed to pass the threshold and are now out of parliament seems to favor the CDU-SPD coalition. With these two parties out of parliament, the possible grand coalition automatically has a majority of seats.

On the other hand, if the BSW, which seems to have fallen short of the threshold by around 2,000 votes, manages to enter parliament after objections, the CDU-SPD coalition will need a third party. The biggest third-party candidate for such a coalition seems to be the Greens.

The SPD’s worst result since the Second World War also weakens the party’s hand in a possible coalition. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to serve as a caretaker, it seems less likely that he will remain at the head of the party. The most likely candidate to lead the SPD is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Pistorius’ personal popularity, supported by the media, seems to even surpass Merz: Public broadcaster ARD asked voters which candidate they would most like to see become chancellor. Among those nominated by the parties, Friedrich Merz came first with 34%, but the person with the strongest voter support (though not one of the main candidates) was Boris Pistorius with 47%.

Party co-chairman Lars Klingbeil will head the SPD’s parliamentary group. So far, Klingbeil has been tight-lipped about whether the party would accept an alliance with the CDU.

In any case, there are other, bigger problems beyond the numbers. Some disputes between the CDU and the SPD, and between the CDU and the Greens, could come to the fore in a possible coalition. These include the war in Ukraine, transatlantic relations, the issue of migration and defense spending, and the debate on the constitutional debt brake.

On the issue of migration, for example, the CDU and its leader Merz have shown that they will not hesitate to side with the AfD. According to the exit polls of public broadcaster ZDF, voters made it clear that their biggest concerns were immigration and security (44%), followed by the state of the economy (35%).

The debate on defense spending and the constitutional debt brake could be Merz’s soft underbelly, since the CDU, which is also fiscally “conservative,” has long opposed any change or relaxation of the debt brake clause, which limits state debt to 0.35% of GDP. Merz had signaled before the elections that this position could be relaxed.

The two parties that will play a critical role in the new parliament, Die Linke (Left Party) and AfD, will also be decisive. The Left Party is in favor of lifting the debt brake but also wants to reduce the defense budget and opposes Merz’s platform on many other issues, including taxation and immigration. This could make any deal involving this party extremely difficult.

The AfD, on the other hand, wants to stick to the country’s strict debt limits but is in favor of increasing defense spending. And given the party’s warm relations with the new US government across the Atlantic, it is unlikely that Alice Weidel and her colleagues will oppose Trump’s demand for more European defense spending.

The failure of the “mainstream” parties to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament will also make it more difficult to pass the debt-ceiling reform. According to Bloomberg , this could lead to “some creative alternatives.”

The new chancellor could ask parliament to temporarily suspend the constitutional rule and allow higher spending. The most important risk to watch in such a scenario would be any litigation at the country’s Federal Constitutional Court. While it is difficult to predict how the court will react, it may be more inclined to an immediate suspension, especially given the current geopolitical challenges.

In addition, Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, had declared before the elections that he was also cold to an alliance with the SPD. One can imagine what the CSU, which does not even accept the SPD, would say about a federal coalition with the Greens.

However, the Greens seem to have left the door open for a coalition. When asked whether the Greens would contact the CDU for a possible coalition, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said that it was Merz’s prerogative to initiate such talks, but he also made it clear that the Greens were willing to participate in a coalition.

“This is the only possibility,” Habeck told public broadcaster ZDF. “What this result means has to be understood: We are in a very difficult situation,” Habeck said.

German business executives have already begun to assess the election results in terms of “stability” and “competitiveness.” Christian Bruch, CEO of Siemens Energy, said in an emailed statement: “It is important that the democratic center parties form a stable government as soon as possible to address these challenges as soon as possible. Germany must quickly regain its competitiveness. Steps in energy policy are vital for this,” he said.

Bruch’s comments are in line with a statement made last night by Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, speaking in his capacity as head of Germany’s banking lobby. “Germany now needs a government that is willing to act and can do so quickly. The challenges facing our country are enormous: the economy urgently needs a fresh start with fundamental reforms,” Sewing said.

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Friedrich Merz calls for stronger European defense amid declining US interest

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Friedrich Merz, whose CDU party won the German elections and is almost certain to become the next German Chancellor, promised in his victory speech to move quickly to “unite Europe” and “achieve independence” from the United States.

Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won 28.5% of the vote on Sunday, needing at least one coalition partner to secure a parliamentary majority. Germany’s right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its vote share to 21%, its highest ever, and came second, while the Free Democrats (FDP) and the new left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to secure enough votes to enter the Bundestag, raising the prospect of a CDU-SPD coalition.

However, the strong performances of the AfD and the left-wing Die Linke (Left Party) risk limiting Merz’s room for maneuver to increase investments, including expanding the defense budget.

A few hours after the polls closed, Merz declared that Germany must fundamentally reform its security arrangements and end its decades-long dependence on Washington. He said that US President Donald Trump was “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate.

“I am in close contact with the EU heads of government, with many prime ministers. It must be an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that step by step we can achieve our independence from the US,” Merz said.

While Merz argued that it was clear that “at least this American government” was “largely indifferent” to the fate of Europe, he said he was keen to form a government “as soon as possible” given the huge challenges facing Germany and Europe, adding that “the world will not wait for us.”

Merz, who is on track to become Germany’s new leader, said the Trump administration does not care about Europe and has aligned itself with Russia. Merz warned that the continent urgently needs to strengthen its defenses and even find a replacement for NATO within months.

“I am very curious to see how we move towards the NATO summit at the end of June. Will we still be talking about NATO in its current form, or will we have to build an independent European defense capability much more quickly?” Merz asked.

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Rheinmetall secures €260 million contract for military logistics support

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German arms company Rheinmetall announced on Wednesday that it has signed an agreement with the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) to provide logistical support during the redeployment of troops both at home and abroad.

Europe’s largest ammunition manufacturer said the framework agreement with the German army, worth €260 million ($271 million), is valid for three years and can be extended until the end of 2029.

Under the contract, Rheinmetall will provide specified services in line with national defense requirements and mutual defense obligations. The company is thus expanding its logistics support services for the redeployment of forces.

The order comes at a time of increased interest in European defense groups after US President Donald Trump urged Europe to increase investment in the sector, raising expectations of increased military spending.

Rheinmetall shares, which have risen nearly tenfold since the Ukraine war, rose 0.7% yesterday.

Rheinmetall said the deal is not limited to providing services to the Bundeswehr, but also covers allied armed forces such as NATO.

“Due to its central position in Europe, Germany is both a transit country and a logistical hub for collective defense. It therefore plays a key role in the redeployment of forces within NATO and the EU,” Rheinmetall said.

CEO Armin Papperger told Reuters last week that he expected the company to continue growing faster than previously thought, given the Trump administration’s calls for Europe to increase defense spending and take responsibility for its own security.

Papperger said increasing Germany’s defense budget to 2.5% or 3% of GDP from the current 2% would mean an annual defense investment of €60 billion to €70 billion.

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