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CDU motion passes with AfD support, breaching German ‘firewall’

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Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) have taken a significant step, potentially breaching the established “firewall” policy against the far-right, by passing a motion on immigration with the support of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). This action marks a notable shift in German politics.

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the main opposition CDU, announced the party’s new strategy last Friday following a knife attack in Aschaffenburg. He stated that his party would pursue non-binding motions “regardless of who voted in favor of them.” The attack involved an Afghan national, who had come to Germany as an asylum seeker and was subsequently arrested on suspicion of murder.

Merz’s move was widely viewed as a departure from established norms. Germany’s “firewall” has traditionally aimed to prevent any targeted cooperation between mainstream parties and the far-right.

While it was unclear whether the two CDU/CSU motions would pass, the main motion was narrowly approved with 348 votes in favor, 344 against, and ten abstentions.

The combined support from the CDU/CSU, the AfD, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), and some independent members marked the first instance in the history of the modern German parliament where a motion passed solely with the backing of the AfD. The second motion was rejected.

Merz defended his party’s actions against criticisms, while members of the SPD shouted “shame on you” at Merz and the CDU/CSU following the result. The current minority government, caused by the collapse of Scholz’s coalition, has created opportunities for new majorities.

Merz stated that he did not desire AfD support, but in a speech prior to the vote, he asserted that he preferred to change the current migration policy, which he believes contributed to the attack, rather than maintain the status quo.

Merz’s motion calls for the government to implement permanent border controls and to turn back all asylum seekers at the border, among other measures. The plan would deny entry to asylum seekers without a valid identity card or entry document, tighten immigration procedures, and impose stricter penalties for illegal entry.

Rolf Mützenich, the SPD parliamentary group leader, described the CDU/CSU’s actions as an abandonment of the political center of the parliament. He further stated that the vote, which occurred hours after the parliament commemorated the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp, would be a historic event.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz sharply criticized the CDU/CSU after the vote, stating that migration regulations are an integral part of Germany’s legal order. He emphasized that the CDU/CSU motion contradicted both the Federal Constitution and EU law.

Britta Haßelmann, parliamentary leader of the Greens, remarked to Merz, “When you look at the face of the AfD, you realize what has happened today, and you are responsible for it.”

Merz defended his position, saying he was “not seeking a majority in this parliament outside the democratic center.” He added, “If there has been a [different] majority today, I regret that.”

The AfD, however, celebrated the vote as a “historic moment.” Bernd Baumann, the party’s chief spokesman, stated, “Mr. Merz, you helped make this happen.” Baumann argued that this marked the start of a new era of cooperation with the CDU/CSU.

“Today is a historic moment. It means the end of the red-green coalition and the beginning of a new era in Germany. We will lead this change,” Baumann said.

AfD co-chairwoman and chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel, accused mainstream parties of disrespecting German voters by their attitude towards her party. “The so-called firewall is nothing more than an anti-democratic cartel agreement aimed at excluding millions of voters,” Weidel said during the Bundestag debate.

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BSW leader questions election validity after narrow Bundestag miss

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The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which missed the Bundestag by approximately 13,000 votes and secured 4.97% of the vote, issued its first official statement on the elections today.

BSW leader Wagenknecht is calling for a legal review of the election results, citing that many Germans residing abroad were unable to vote due to restrictive time constraints.

“If a party is expelled from the Bundestag because it received 13,400 fewer votes, this raises the question of the legal validity of the election result. We will analyze this and consult legal experts,” Wagenknecht stated at the press conference.

While Wagenknecht was self-critical regarding her party’s electoral performance, she also strongly criticized the media and polling agencies.

Shortly before election day, Forsa published a poll indicating BSW support at 3%. Wagenknecht characterized this as “a targeted campaign to manipulate voting behavior,” emphasizing that this figure fell outside the typical margin of error for polls.

Wagenknecht also made several accusations against the media. She contended that since the autumn, an “unprecedented” negative media campaign had been directed against her party and herself, alleging that her party had been labeled “pro-Putin,” had a “distorted image” portrayed, and had its “prospects for success systematically lowered.”

Wagenknecht asserted that “every opportunity for negative news, no matter how trivial, is widely publicized nationwide, while the party’s content is no longer reported.”

The German Journalists’ Association (DJV) rejected the accusations against the media. “The reporting in this election has certainly taken place under difficult circumstances, but in our view, it has been of a high standard and, thanks to the new formats, the smaller parties have also received more coverage,” DJV President Mika Beuster said on Monday.

Beuster maintained that Wagenknecht was, among other things, a regular guest on talk shows and therefore could not complain about the lack of media coverage.

Referring to the circulation of initial figures on social media early Sunday, which purportedly predicted the BSW’s failure and were allegedly falsified, Wagenknecht described this as “similarly arrogant and, in this case, criminally appropriate.”

Wagenknecht did not directly answer a journalist’s question about whether she would resign. “I know that they would very much like to hear that now, and that is precisely why I will not do them that favor,” Wagenknecht responded.

At the beginning of the press conference, Wagenknecht also acknowledged the party’s own shortcomings. “A young party loses particularly quickly when high expectations are not realized,” she said, referencing, for example, the dilemma surrounding discussions on participation in government in the East German states.

Approximately 213,000 voters abroad had applied for postal voting certificates, but many were apparently unable to cast their votes in time for the snap election due to insufficient time.

Before the election, constitutional lawyers indicated that this presented an opportunity for a retrospective complaint.

According to Infratest Dimap, approximately 400,000 votes for the BSW came from individuals who had not previously voted, compared to 440,000 for the SPD, around 350,000 for the Left Party, and around 260,000 for the FDP. The CDU/CSU lost around 220,000 voters to the BSW, while the Greens and AfD lost around 150,000 and 60,000 votes, respectively.

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Election results confirm deepening divide between eastern and western Germany

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On 23 February, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerged as the leading party, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured second place in the early federal elections. These results highlighted a stark division between eastern and western Germany.

As the European Parliament (EP) elections last June demonstrated, the AfD has solidified its position as the strongest party in eastern Germany, where it garnered 32% of the votes—nearly one in three voters supported the party. For instance, in Saxony, Maximilian Krah, a controversial AfD candidate, is expected to win his constituency with over 40% of the vote.

“I look forward to watching the self-destruction of the CDU live in the Bundestag soon. Merz is leading his party into a loose state, and it’s called the Afghanistan coalition,” Krah told Euractiv in a written statement.

It remains unclear whether Krah’s victory will be sufficient for him to enter the Bundestag under Germany’s new election procedure. Additional local constituency victories could secure more seats for the AfD based on its initial vote share in Saxony.

In western Germany, the CDU/CSU declared victory as the clear leader, securing 30.8% of the vote. The AfD surpassed the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to become the second-largest party in the west, with 17.7% of the vote.

In addition to the CDU’s success in some eastern constituencies, the SPD and the Greens also won in certain western regions. However, the biggest surprise came from Berlin, where Die Linke (The Left Party) emerged victorious with nearly 20% of the vote.

After years of decline, Die Linke , which had been polling at just 3% a few months ago, benefited from the focus on immigration policy and the question of how to deal with the AfD during the final stages of the election campaign. A significant portion of the SPD and Green voter base quickly shifted to Die Linke . Thousands of new members have registered in recent weeks, boosting the party above the 5% threshold; current estimates place it between 8% and 9%.

During the campaign, Die Linke initially aimed for three direct mandates, as surpassing the 5% threshold was considered nearly impossible. In the end, the party won several constituencies outright, including four in Berlin: Ines Schwerdtner in Berlin-Lichtenberg, Gregor Gysi in Treptow-Köpenick, Pascal Meiser in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, and Ferat Koçak in Neukölln. Neukölln marked the first “western constituency” won by the party.

Until recently, no one in the party seriously expected Meiser to win the Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg constituency. Former Thuringian Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow won the Erfurt-Weimar-Weimarer Land II constituency, while Sören Pellmann retained the Leipzig II constituency.

While Die Linke remained below its previous peaks in eastern German states, repeating its relatively poor 2021 performance with minor improvements, it made significant gains in western Germany, where it had performed disastrously in recent state elections. Notably, the party exceeded 5% in Bavaria.

The overall trend reflects a shift in the center of gravity of Die Linke’s electorate toward the west. The party achieved above-average results in university towns where the Greens had previously excelled. For example, in the Münster constituency, Die Linke won 12.5% of the second votes (+7.5 percentage points), in Bonn 12.5% (+7), and in Heidelberg 10.1% (+5.3).

The Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by Die Linke defectors, disappointed. After major successes in three state elections in eastern Germany in September 2024 and subsequent entry into two state governments, the BSW steadily declined in polls. Some polling organizations consistently underestimated the party by three or four percentage points, which may have influenced voters. The Forsa poll published just before the election showed the BSW at around 3%, prompting strong reactions from the party, which described it as a form of “disinformation.”

At approximately 82.5%, turnout was significantly higher than in 2021 (76.4%) and reached its highest level since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.

Demographically, Die Linke achieved surprising success among first-time voters, leading with 27%. Among young women in urban areas, support for Die Linke reached 34%, followed by the Greens with 22% and the SPD with 12%. Among older men in rural areas, the CDU led with 42%, followed by the AfD and SPD with 18% each.

Voting patterns among economically disadvantaged voters were as follows: AfD 37%, CDU 18%, SPD 12%, Die Linke 11%, Greens 7%, and BSW 7%. The AfD increased its share in this segment by 18 points compared to the 2021 federal elections.

The AfD also gained ground among workers and employees. In 2021, the CDU received 20%, the SPD 26%, and the AfD 21%. In contrast, yesterday’s elections saw the AfD receive 38%, the CDU 22%, and the SPD 12%.

This trend is reflected in other survey questions: 75% of AfD voters expressed fear of being unable to pay their bills due to rising prices, compared to 60% of Die Linke voters. While the overall average is 53%, CDU, SPD, and Green voters are below this figure: 46%, 43%, and 28%, respectively.

Whereas in 2022 only 39% of German voters considered the economic situation bad, this figure has risen to 83%, with 96% of AfD voters sharing this view.

The Greens tend to attract upper-income voters, while the AfD, Die Linke , and to a lesser extent the CDU/CSU seem to draw support from lower-income groups.

Regarding the source of the AfD’s votes, “non-voters” constitute the largest group: 1,830,000. This is followed by the CDU (830,000), the FDP (750,000), the SPD (630,000), Die Linke (90,000), and the Greens (70,000). Only 60,000 votes shifted from the AfD to the BSW, indicating that right-wing and left-wing parties with anti-immigration rhetoric, particularly in eastern Germany, have distinct voter bases and that there was no significant shift from the AfD to the “left.”

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German elections pave the way for a potential CDU-SPD grand coalition

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After the 23 February German federal elections, all eyes turned to the coalition scenarios and the program of the next chancellor. With the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerging as the leading party, it is almost certain that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor and form the government.

At this point, since the CDU has not been able to secure a majority, the question of who will knock on the door for a coalition is on the agenda. Merz and his party, which closed the door to the second-ranked Alternative for Germany (AfD), are likely to mobilize for a “grand coalition” with the SPD.

Looking at the numbers, the fact that the FDP, the junior partner of the previous traffic-light coalition, and the new left-wing party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), failed to pass the threshold and are now out of parliament seems to favor the CDU-SPD coalition. With these two parties out of parliament, the possible grand coalition automatically has a majority of seats.

On the other hand, if the BSW, which seems to have fallen short of the threshold by around 2,000 votes, manages to enter parliament after objections, the CDU-SPD coalition will need a third party. The biggest third-party candidate for such a coalition seems to be the Greens.

The SPD’s worst result since the Second World War also weakens the party’s hand in a possible coalition. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to serve as a caretaker, it seems less likely that he will remain at the head of the party. The most likely candidate to lead the SPD is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Pistorius’ personal popularity, supported by the media, seems to even surpass Merz: Public broadcaster ARD asked voters which candidate they would most like to see become chancellor. Among those nominated by the parties, Friedrich Merz came first with 34%, but the person with the strongest voter support (though not one of the main candidates) was Boris Pistorius with 47%.

Party co-chairman Lars Klingbeil will head the SPD’s parliamentary group. So far, Klingbeil has been tight-lipped about whether the party would accept an alliance with the CDU.

In any case, there are other, bigger problems beyond the numbers. Some disputes between the CDU and the SPD, and between the CDU and the Greens, could come to the fore in a possible coalition. These include the war in Ukraine, transatlantic relations, the issue of migration and defense spending, and the debate on the constitutional debt brake.

On the issue of migration, for example, the CDU and its leader Merz have shown that they will not hesitate to side with the AfD. According to the exit polls of public broadcaster ZDF, voters made it clear that their biggest concerns were immigration and security (44%), followed by the state of the economy (35%).

The debate on defense spending and the constitutional debt brake could be Merz’s soft underbelly, since the CDU, which is also fiscally “conservative,” has long opposed any change or relaxation of the debt brake clause, which limits state debt to 0.35% of GDP. Merz had signaled before the elections that this position could be relaxed.

The two parties that will play a critical role in the new parliament, Die Linke (Left Party) and AfD, will also be decisive. The Left Party is in favor of lifting the debt brake but also wants to reduce the defense budget and opposes Merz’s platform on many other issues, including taxation and immigration. This could make any deal involving this party extremely difficult.

The AfD, on the other hand, wants to stick to the country’s strict debt limits but is in favor of increasing defense spending. And given the party’s warm relations with the new US government across the Atlantic, it is unlikely that Alice Weidel and her colleagues will oppose Trump’s demand for more European defense spending.

The failure of the “mainstream” parties to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament will also make it more difficult to pass the debt-ceiling reform. According to Bloomberg , this could lead to “some creative alternatives.”

The new chancellor could ask parliament to temporarily suspend the constitutional rule and allow higher spending. The most important risk to watch in such a scenario would be any litigation at the country’s Federal Constitutional Court. While it is difficult to predict how the court will react, it may be more inclined to an immediate suspension, especially given the current geopolitical challenges.

In addition, Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, had declared before the elections that he was also cold to an alliance with the SPD. One can imagine what the CSU, which does not even accept the SPD, would say about a federal coalition with the Greens.

However, the Greens seem to have left the door open for a coalition. When asked whether the Greens would contact the CDU for a possible coalition, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said that it was Merz’s prerogative to initiate such talks, but he also made it clear that the Greens were willing to participate in a coalition.

“This is the only possibility,” Habeck told public broadcaster ZDF. “What this result means has to be understood: We are in a very difficult situation,” Habeck said.

German business executives have already begun to assess the election results in terms of “stability” and “competitiveness.” Christian Bruch, CEO of Siemens Energy, said in an emailed statement: “It is important that the democratic center parties form a stable government as soon as possible to address these challenges as soon as possible. Germany must quickly regain its competitiveness. Steps in energy policy are vital for this,” he said.

Bruch’s comments are in line with a statement made last night by Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, speaking in his capacity as head of Germany’s banking lobby. “Germany now needs a government that is willing to act and can do so quickly. The challenges facing our country are enormous: the economy urgently needs a fresh start with fundamental reforms,” Sewing said.

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