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MIDDLE EAST

Does India take advantage of current rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan?

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At the height of the current tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, India condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes in Paktika province in eastern Afghanistan with a delay of two weeks. India is the second country that has officially reacted to these attacks.

In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India supported the position of the Taliban and condemned the killing of civilians in Pakistan’s attacks. Delhi made no mention of Pakistan’s claim that it had struck four hideouts of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a group that has become a security problem for the Pakistani military. Delhi ironically said that “Islamabad always blames its neighbors.”

Pakistan traditionally holds India and Afghanistan responsible for internal insurgencies and attacks by terrorist and separatist groups on its soil. Recently, Pakistani officials accused the Afghan Taliban of colluding with India to destabilize Pakistan.

Trust-building

India’s new stance can be described as a clever political game or even political opportunism. India, which has always considered the Taliban as Pakistan’s proxy force in the region and was one of the main supporters of the former Afghan government, now plans to use the tension between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan to get closer to the Taliban.

Over the past three years, New Delhi has tried to reduce its longstanding mistrust with the Taliban. Expelling the ambassador and diplomats of the previous government from Delhi, handing over the Afghan embassy and consulates in India to the Taliban, cutting ties with former allies such as the leaders of the resistance front, and stopping the issuance of visas to former officials have been part of this trust building and rapprochement.

Revival of lost influence

Afghanistan has always been important for Delhi due to its geographical proximity to Pakistan. Pakistan says that Delhi’s purpose in getting closer to Afghanistan was to destabilize the tense areas in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

India has traditionally supported Afghan governments against Pakistan. Due to the dispute with Pakistan over the “Durand Line”, Afghanistan has had enough incentive to get closer to India. India has also provided various economic, technical and diplomatic assistance to Afghanistan to strengthen this relationship.

With the return of the Taliban, India was forced to close its embassy and consulates in Kabul, Balkh, Herat, Nangarhar and Kandahar provinces. Following this, India severed all ties – even people-to-people links – with Afghanistan.

Thousands of Afghan students were prevented from continuing their studies in Indian universities due to lack of visas. After the political collapse in Afghanistan, many believed that the history of India’s influence in Afghanistan was also over.

But the Taliban, unlike the previous period, is trying to establish relations with all countries in the region and is not dependent on a particular country, and took steps to strengthen relations with India.

Yaqoob Mujahid, the Minister of Defense of the Taliban, in an unprecedented statement said that the Taliban is ready to send its forces to India for training. India also responded to the goodwill of the Taliban by sending its diplomats to Kabul.

Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian about expanding relations with Afghanistan through Chabahar port. The government of Iran said that “the talk about Afghanistan was made because of the interest of the Indian side.”

India is seriously trying to reduce the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan and strengthen its relations through Chabahar.

Approaching the enemy border

The importance of India’s efforts to improve relations with the Taliban and open a foothold in Afghanistan should be seen from the eyes of Pakistan. Islamabad has consistently complained about India’s diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, especially in its border areas.

Pakistan considers India a vital threat and does not accept the country’s proximity to its borders. In the previous government of Afghanistan, relations between Kabul and Islamabad were cold.

Pakistani officials had repeatedly expressed concern about the activities of Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar in meetings with Afghan leaders. Even some Pakistani leaders had made cooperation in securing peace and stability in Afghanistan conditional on reducing relations with India and closing the country’s embassies in the mentioned cities.

Analysts are unanimous on the point that Pakistan considers Afghanistan as a barrier or an area free of Indian influence. This country has continuously supported the paramilitary groups and the subversive central government in order to establish a pro-Pakistan government.

India sees an opportunity to expand its influence in Afghanistan in the worsening relations between Islamabad and the Taliban. However, it is not clear how far this tension will make the Afghan Taliban rely on Delhi.

What is certain is that Pakistan finds the closeness of the Taliban and India intolerable, just as it was angry about the close relations of the former Afghan government with New Delhi.

Of course, we should not ignore the fact that the Afghan Taliban is as much a double-edged sword for Delhi as it is for Pakistan. Because the Afghan Taliban has not cut off its relations with militant and terrorist groups.

Strengthening the Afghan Taliban also means strengthening Pakistani militant Islamist groups, which Delhi considers a tool in the hands of Pakistan and a threat to its national security.

Rising unrest in Pakistan by TTP, a close ally of the Afghani Taliban has benefited India

In recent decades, part of India’s strategy in Afghanistan has been to weaken Pakistan. Supporting separatist groups and creating unrest in Pakistan is an important part of this policy.

Rising unrest in Pakistan by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, has benefited India. From 2020 until now, the level of insecurity in Pakistan has increased steadily and 2024 was the most unstable year in Pakistan in a decade.

Pakistan believes that the insecurity and violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is organized from the soil of Afghanistan and that the Afghan Taliban have collaborated with India.

Understanding the depth of these tensions, India has taken steps to intensify the differences between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban by supporting the Taliban. India seeks to increase the dependence of the Afghan Taliban on New Delhi in order to exploit these relations in the long run to weaken Pakistan.

The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India can probably increase Islamabad’s skepticism towards the Taliban. To solve the problem of militants, Pakistan has increased military and political pressure on the Taliban. However, this pressure will make the Afghan Taliban more inclined towards Delhi.

Despite the absence of three years in the diplomatic arena of Afghanistan, India has been able to advance its goals. Pakistan has suffered the most from the recent developments in Afghanistan. The increase in insecurity in Pakistan is largely related to the events after the fall of the republican system in Afghanistan.

MIDDLE EAST

Thousands protest Netanyahu government in Israel

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In Israel, tens of thousands of people are demonstrating against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government’s attempt to dismiss Ronen Bar, the Director of the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet or Shabak), and the decision to resume attacks on Gaza.

The focal point of the protests was West Jerusalem, where the Knesset (Parliament), the Prime Minister’s Office, and other government buildings are located.

Demonstrators blocked Highway 1, one of the country’s main arteries between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, in the early hours of the morning, causing long queues.

Subsequently, tens of thousands of people gathered in the square in West Jerusalem, near the Knesset, ministries, and state buildings, protesting and calling for the resignation of the Netanyahu government and early elections.

Demonstrators carrying Israeli flags and yellow ribbons representing the Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip were joined by former senior politicians such as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon.

Protesters, who were demonstrating against the government’s decision to resume attacks on the Gaza Strip, chanted slogans and carried posters and banners accusing Netanyahu of “risking the lives of Israeli captives by launching an attack on Gaza for political reasons.”

Meanwhile, some citizens participating in the demonstrations in West Jerusalem stopped their vehicles in traffic and carried out acts of civil disobedience, causing traffic congestion in many parts of West Jerusalem.

Yair Lapid, leader of the main opposition party Yesh Atid (There is a Future) in Israel, called on Israelis to participate in the demonstrations in a post on his social media account.

Stating that they “decided to take to the streets because the Netanyahu government has lost its legitimacy,” Lapid said that “silence in the face of the destruction caused by the government gives the government more time to tear the country apart.”

According to The Times of Israel, Brigadier General (Ret.) Amir Haskel of the Israeli Air Force was taken into custody by Israeli police near Netanyahu’s home in West Jerusalem while chanting slogans with a megaphone.

Netanyahu’s announcement on March 16 that he would dismiss Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar was met with intense reaction from the opposition and Netanyahu’s opponents.

The Israeli Attorney General’s Office warned that the move could be unlawful because Shin Bet was investigating two files in which Netanyahu’s close advisors were being investigated.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office stated that Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara had “perversely exceeded her authority.”

While Israel was experiencing a political crisis, the Netanyahu government broke the ceasefire with Hamas on March 18 and launched violent attacks on the Gaza Strip.

In the air strikes carried out by the Israeli army on the Gaza Strip on the morning of March 18, at least 400 people, mostly women and children, lost their lives, and more than 500 Palestinians were injured.

In a statement made by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, it was stated that the attacks were launched upon the instructions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and that action would be taken against Hamas with “increasing military force.”

Hamas, on the other hand, announced that “Israel did not keep its promises and resumed its genocide against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip by not fulfilling its responsibilities in the presence of the mediating countries regarding the ceasefire.”

The families of the Israeli captives in the Gaza Strip accused the Netanyahu government of “giving up on the captives” by breaking the ceasefire, and stated that the government’s justification for restarting the war to bring back the captives was “a complete deception.”

Opposition parties in Israel also pointed out that the attacks had resumed under the shadow of controversial political steps, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s dismissal of the director of the domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet.

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MIDDLE EAST

Israel resumes massacre in Gaza after US green light

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After failing to impose its terms on Hamas, Israel, in violation of the ceasefire agreement, launched an intense aerial assault on Gaza. With the approval of the US, the attacks in the early morning resulted in the deaths of Gazan children in their sleep.

Israel announced the end of the ceasefire and began conducting heavy airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Tent camps where displaced Palestinians had sought refuge were also bombed, causing fires.

In a few hours, the number of people killed in the Israeli attacks exceeded 205, and the number of injured surpassed 300. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 113 of the victims were killed in the southern part of the region. Many families were completely wiped out, and children were killed in their sleep. Images of dead babies emerged from hospitals.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated in a post on the social media platform X that the Israeli army was striking Hamas targets in Gaza. The statement cited Hamas’s “continued refusal to release hostages” and “Trump’s Middle East Representative Steve Witkoff turning down all proposals offered by mediators” as the reasons for the attacks.

The statement signaled that Israel would expand its attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also claimed that they had relaunched the attacks because Hamas refused to release the Israeli captives. Katz said, “If Hamas does not release all the captives, the gates of hell will open in Gaza.” Katz stated that they would continue the attacks until they achieved their goals.

The Israeli army also announced that the order to attack was given by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz. The army emphasized that it would continue the airstrikes “as long as necessary” and was ready to move the surprise attack beyond the air operation if ordered.

Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir is managing the attacks from the army headquarters together with Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar.

US support for Israel, which broke the ceasefire and began targeting civilians again with attacks on Gaza, was not delayed. The White House announced that Israel had consulted with the US regarding the attacks.

Speaking to Fox News, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, using the expression “Doomsday will break out,” stated that Trump was not afraid to support Israel.

In a written statement from Hamas, it was stated that the Israeli government had broken the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on January 19 and had declared war on the Gaza Strip.

The statement reminded that the Palestinian people were subjected to a barbaric war as well as systematic starvation policies, and added, “We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Zionist Nazi occupiers responsible for the consequences of the treacherous attacks against Gaza and the defenseless Palestinian people.”

The statement said, “Netanyahu and his radical government, by deciding to undermine the ceasefire agreement, are endangering the lives of the captives in the Gaza Strip and dragging their fate into uncertainty. We call on the mediators to hold Netanyahu and the Zionist occupier responsible for undermining the ceasefire.”

In the statement, Arab countries and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) were called upon to fulfill their responsibilities and stand by the Palestinian people and break the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was called upon to convene urgently.

In its statement, Hamas requested that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue and that Israeli forces withdraw, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2735.

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, involved Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of some of the Israeli hostages. In the second phase, which was supposed to begin after the completion of the first phase, Israel was expected to withdraw completely from Gaza, and the remaining hostages held by Hamas were to be released gradually.

However, if the second phase were to begin and Israel were to withdraw its soldiers from Gaza, Netanyahu’s government was likely to collapse. Unwilling to take this risk, Netanyahu tried to extend the first phase and rescue the Israeli hostages by pressuring Hamas together with the mediators, instead of moving on to the second phase of the agreement. However, Hamas did not accept this and demanded that the agreement be implemented in full.

Meanwhile, Israel’s attack move came after Prime Minister Netanyahu removed Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin-Bet internal intelligence organization, and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, from the country’s negotiation team. Netanyahu argued that he made these changes because the intelligence officials were acting “too softly” in the negotiations.

There is a tension between Israel’s security institutions and the Netanyahu government, the roots of which date back to before the October 7 raid. Due to this tension, which has been increasing since October 7, the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi resigned earlier this month. Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar was fired by Netanyahu. Reactions from the opposition that Netanyahu was trying to fire Bar for personal reasons increased calls for street protests. With this attack move, Netanyahu has also set a barrier to the major protests planned for tomorrow.

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MIDDLE EAST

Türkiye to double electricity exports to Iraq, reaching 600 MW

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Türkiye is set to double its electricity exports to Iraq, raising the capacity to 600 megawatts. As summer approaches, the Baghdad administration is seeking alternative energy sources to replace those from Iran, which is currently under US sanctions.

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced on Sunday that “All necessary logistical and infrastructure preparations have been completed to increase the electricity supply capacity via the Iraq-Türkiye interconnection line to 600 megawatts.”

During a visit to Iraq, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar met with various officials, including Iraqi Minister of Electricity Ziyad Ali Fadel. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity stated that Bayraktar confirmed the electricity supply would increase “in the coming months.”

The National reported that in July of last year, Baghdad and Ankara inaugurated the electricity line, which currently supplies 300 MW of electricity to Iraq.

Under the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran initiated by US President Donald Trump, Washington revoked the waiver last week that permitted Iraq to import energy from Iran.

Despite being the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iraq struggles to meet its electricity demand due to decades of war, mismanagement, and corruption. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kazimi said in 2020 that the country had spent at least $60 billion on the electricity sector since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad sources approximately one-third of its electricity from Iran. Iraq buys 50 million cubic meters of natural gas and 500 megawatts of electricity daily from Iran. Iraqi officials have stated that US sanctions will only impact electricity imports.

Since 2018, Washington has granted waivers allowing Iraq to import energy from Iran for specific periods, typically ranging from 45 to 120 days. However, the US seeks to reduce Iraq’s reliance on Iran and continues to apply pressure to achieve this.

Iraq has taken steps in recent years to develop its natural gas resources and address the deficit in the electricity sector. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, the country’s natural gas reserves are approximately 3.714 billion cubic meters.

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