Diplomacy
Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam inauguration reignites Nile River tensions
With Ethiopia’s inauguration of the Renaissance Dam last Tuesday, Addis Ababa has entered a new period of tension in its relations with the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan.
Cairo and Khartoum have long expressed their complete opposition to any “unilateral steps” that would harm water resources in the Eastern Nile basin, emphasizing that their water security is inextricably linked.
The Nile River originates in the tropical region of East Africa and consists of two main tributaries: the White Nile, which rises from Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile, which rises from Lake Tana in Ethiopia.
These two rivers merge in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and flow northward, eventually emptying into the Mediterranean Sea.
While Ethiopia focuses on the potential benefits of the dam, the calculations in Khartoum and Cairo are becoming more complex.
Sudan’s Roseires Dam concern
For Sudan, the ecosystem of the Blue Nile will be negatively affected if approximately 300 cubic meters of water per second are not released. The size of the Renaissance Dam and its direct impact on the Roseires Dam, located about 100 kilometers away, are sources of serious concern.
The Roseires Dam, a hydroelectric power station, is situated on the Blue Nile in the Sudanese city of Ed-Damazin. Constructed between 1961 and 1966, the dam is used for irrigation and electricity generation, featuring a plant with a capacity of 280 megawatts.
Upgrades were made in 2013 to increase the dam’s storage and power generation capacity. This dam is considered the backbone of Sudan’s electricity grid, providing the country with clean and cheap electricity.
The safe filling and operation of both the Renaissance and Roseires dams depend on full compliance with the daily exchange of data between the two facilities.
Although this was stipulated in the 2015 Framework Agreement, the absence of a signed binding agreement means that commitments are not being fulfilled.
This situation jeopardizes the operation of the Roseires Dam due to a lack of information regarding discharge data, the safety status of the Renaissance Dam, emergency plans, and other technical operational matters.
Sudan argues that the necessary coordination must be based on a written agreement that guarantees the sharing of data on the filling and discharging of the dams.
Such an agreement should include a commitment to full cooperation to ensure the two dams operate in harmony, as the filling rules for the Roseires Dam depend on the amount of water released from the Renaissance Dam and the flood season.
Egypt’s search for alternatives
Egypt, meanwhile, continues to reject Addis Ababa’s policies regarding the dam, its future, and its negative impacts on the country’s water resources.
Egypt’s annual share of water from the Nile River is approximately 55 billion cubic meters, 80% of which is used in agriculture. Since Ethiopia began constructing and impounding water at the dam, the Egyptian government has resorted to various policies to reduce water consumption.
Chief among these measures are reducing the cultivation area for rice and focusing on crops that consume less water, such as corn, potatoes, and clover.
The government has also turned to projects like seawater desalination plants, wastewater treatment facilities, and the rehabilitation of thousands of kilometers of water canals to prevent water waste.
However, these measures and projects have not stopped Cairo from pursuing political and diplomatic efforts to compel Ethiopia to sign a binding legal agreement that secures the historical water shares of the downstream countries.
The historical roots of the dispute
The water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia is not rooted solely in the Renaissance Dam but in the Nile waters themselves and whether Ethiopia recognizes Egypt’s 55.5 billion cubic meter share, established by the 1929 and 1959 agreements.
Ethiopia does not recognize these historical agreements, particularly the 1902 agreement signed between the then-Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II and Great Britain, which colonized Egypt and Sudan.
Addis Ababa argues that these agreements were signed during the colonial era and therefore cannot be inherited, while Egypt strictly adheres to the theory of state succession to international treaties.
This deep disagreement led to Egypt’s refusal to join the Nile Basin Countries Framework Agreement, signed in 2010 and known as the Entebbe Agreement. While Ethiopia and other countries ratified the agreement starting in 2013, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and the Democratic Republic of Congo did not become parties to it.
Egypt’s reservations at the time centered on Article 14b concerning water security and Article 8 regarding prior notification for projects. Egypt demanded that it and Sudan be informed and their approval obtained before the implementation of any project.
At the Kinshasa meeting in May 2009, Egypt insisted that the legal framework of the agreement include text in Article 14b on water security, explicitly stating that Egypt’s historical water share would not be touched.
Furthermore, it demanded that Article 8, concerning the principle of prior notification for downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) to object before any project begins, be included in the main body of the agreement rather than in the annexes; however, these demands were not met regarding the Renaissance Dam.
Complex political conditions and a long negotiation process
In February 2011, the Ethiopian government announced the start of construction on the Renaissance Dam. Some observers viewed this move as taking advantage of the critical political situation in Egypt following the January 25th Revolution and the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.
In Sudan, the government of President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in April 2019, but the country quickly descended into political tension and has been the scene of a bloody conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023. This situation has weakened Khartoum’s negotiating position on the water issue.
While Egypt was preoccupied with its internal affairs, then-Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid the foundation stone for the project in April 2011, initially named “Millennium” and later changed to the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”
Zenawi later proposed the establishment of a tripartite technical committee composed of the water ministers of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia to study the dam issue and reach a common vision and agreement that would satisfy all parties.
The committee was formed in September 2011 and began its meetings two months later. This marked the beginning of a long negotiation process that included dozens of technical and ministerial-level meetings but failed to produce any solution.
In December 2023, Egypt announced the end of the negotiation process related to the dam due to, according to a statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation at the time, “Ethiopia’s persistent refusal for years to accept any technical or legal middle-ground solution that would safeguard the interests of all three countries.”
Is there a solution to the conflict?
Last Tuesday, coinciding with the inauguration celebrations for the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia, Cairo lodged a formal protest by sending a letter to the Security Council condemning a “unilateral act” contrary to international law.
In the letter from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cairo stated that the giant dam is a “unilateral act contrary to law and international customs.”
Egypt emphasized that it “will not allow Ethiopia’s attempts to unilaterally dominate the management of its water resources and reserves the right to take all measures guaranteed by international law and the UN Charter to defend the existential interests of its people.”
However, Egypt has not yet specified what these measures will be.
It is evident that the period after the dam’s commissioning will not be like the one before, especially since the dam has now become a fait accompli and given the political and economic challenges facing Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
Diplomacy
EU drafts emergency trade support package for Armenia to counter Russian import bans
The European Union is preparing emergency trade measures to support the Armenian economy following a series of import restrictions imposed by Russia.
The European Commission is working on a trade support program for Armenia to offset the impact of the Russian-imposed restrictions, according to a Financial Times report citing sources familiar with the matter.
Under the planned measures, tariffs on Armenian exports to the EU would be reduced. The framework, which covers approximately 20 product categories, is estimated to have an annual volume of around €420 million.
Sources indicated that the proposal could be formally presented in the coming weeks.
“The European Commission will propose autonomous trade measures to help more Armenian businesses access new market opportunities in the EU and to support the most affected sectors of the country’s economy,” European Commission Spokesperson Olof Gill said.
However, sources noted that the plan could encounter certain obstacles. Specifically, the export of Armenian brandy may trigger disputes with French producers.
Furthermore, Armenia’s landlocked geography complicates the transportation of perishable goods to European markets.
In late May, Russia banned the import of floral products from Armenia. The Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision (Rosselkhoznadzor) also halted the import and domestic distribution of all batches of Jermuk mineral water, citing exceedances of permitted levels of ions, chlorides, and sulfates.
The Russian restrictions also targeted brandies and wines from three Armenian producers, which Moscow alleged failed to meet mandatory standards. Additionally, limits were placed on imports of fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, greens, and strawberries.
Armenia’s Food Safety Inspection Body subsequently announced that it was conducting investigations to determine the causes of the restrictions and resolve the issue.
Following these developments, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the government was prepared to compensate affected farmers for their losses.
In early June, temporary restrictions on the import of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia came into effect. Cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches, and nectarines were included in the ban.
A temporary ban on certification procedures for live fish destined for export to Russia was also put into effect.
Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan announced on June 11 that Yerevan had applied to the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) regarding the barriers encountered in exporting goods to Russia.
Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) while simultaneously pursuing closer integration with the European Union.
Following the imposition of the Russian restrictions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU was preparing support for Yerevan in response to “economic pressure,” which includes financial assistance exceeding €50 million.
Diplomacy
Iran discloses 14-point draft US peace accord detailing sanctions relief, regional security measures
Iran’s official news agency, Mehr, has published the 14-point contents of a draft peace agreement reached between Iran and the United States. The document covers multiple critical issues, ranging from the cessation of military activities by both parties and the lifting of sanctions, to the status of the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear negotiations.
According to Mehr, the 14-point draft text includes the following provisions:
- The immediate and permanent cessation of military activities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
- A commitment by the US to refrain from interfering in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect Iranian sovereignty.
- The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
- A commitment by the US to withdraw its troops from the regions surrounding Iran.
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, subject to Iran’s approval.
- The suspension of sanctions targeting the sale of petroleum, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, alongside granting Iran full access to its financial assets.
- The presentation by the US and its allies of reconstruction plans for Iran valued at a minimum of $300 billion.
- The holding of negotiations within 60 days to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and to fully lift US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as resolutions of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors.
- Iran’s reaffirmation of its commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and its pledge not to produce nuclear weapons.
- A commitment by the US not to increase its military presence in the region and to refrain from imposing new sanctions.
- The release of $24 billion of Iran’s frozen funds during the 60-day final negotiation process, with half of this amount to be provided to Iran before negotiations begin.
- The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to oversee the implementation of the agreement.
- The endorsement of the final agreement by a UNSC resolution.
- Final negotiations will not commence until half of Iran’s frozen funds are released, sanctions on Iranian oil are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted. The final agreement will only cover the future of enriched materials and uranium enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and Iran’s economic development program. Discussions regarding Iran’s missile program and its support for resistance groups are strictly excluded from the agenda.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), citing a source, under the terms of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be gradually reopened to maritime traffic during the first 30 days following the signing of the accord as mines are cleared. Furthermore, Iran has committed to refraining from charging transit fees for vessels for a period of 60 days, while the US will lift its naval blockade in return.
The newspaper also reported that the agreement includes Iran’s renunciation of acquiring or developing nuclear weapons. Tehran and Washington will conduct negotiations within 60 days to determine the steps to be taken regarding Iran’s existing stockpiles of enriched uranium.
The FT noted that Iran currently possesses more than 9 metric tons of enriched uranium, of which approximately 440 kilograms has been enriched to near-weapons-grade levels.
Sources speaking to the newspaper stated that the easing of sanctions against Iran would be gradual and contingent upon progress made in the negotiations that will commence after the signing of the agreement.
The signing of the peace agreement between the US and Iran has been confirmed by US President Donald Trump, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi. The official signing ceremony is scheduled to take place on Friday, June 19.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a report from the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, reported that Tehran was preparing to cancel the negotiations, but was persuaded to proceed after Trump made concessions.
“Following the attack on Beirut, Iran had canceled the negotiations and was prepared to strike the Zionist regime. However, in the end, last-minute concessions by the US President—including promises regarding the preservation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers, including from Lebanon, and the lifting of the blockade—convinced Tehran to abandon this decision,” the report stated.
Previously, US President Donald Trump announced that the agreement would first be signed electronically, after which the parties would meet face-to-face within a week at a location in Europe to sign the accord.
Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif indicated that the ceremony would take place in Switzerland.
Diplomacy
OPEC oil output falls to lowest level since 2000 amid Iran disruption
OPEC oil production fell in May to its lowest monthly level in more than two decades, according to a Reuters survey.
The decline was driven by a US naval blockade that curtailed Iranian exports and by reduced shipments from other Gulf producers following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the survey, output from OPEC’s 11 members fell by 1.06 million barrels per day from the previous month to 16.13 million bpd. Reuters data show this was the lowest monthly level recorded since at least 2000.
The figure was well below levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when collapsing demand triggered a sharp downturn in oil markets. Production data from the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1, were not included in the total.
The survey found that the steepest production decline occurred in Iran, reflecting the impact of the US blockade launched on April 13. Iranian crude oil and condensate exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years. Saudi Arabia’s output also continued to decline.
By contrast, sources surveyed by Reuters said Iraq managed to increase production due to stronger domestic consumption. Output in Venezuela and Nigeria also rose during the month.
Eight members of the broader OPEC+ alliance had agreed to raise production quotas for May. However, the conflict involving Iran and the US blockade prevented those increases from materializing.
The Reuters survey is based on oil-flow data from LSEG, shipment information from firms including Kpler, data provided by oil companies and OPEC sources, and information from industry consultants.
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