Diplomacy
Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam inauguration reignites Nile River tensions
With Ethiopia’s inauguration of the Renaissance Dam last Tuesday, Addis Ababa has entered a new period of tension in its relations with the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan.
Cairo and Khartoum have long expressed their complete opposition to any “unilateral steps” that would harm water resources in the Eastern Nile basin, emphasizing that their water security is inextricably linked.
The Nile River originates in the tropical region of East Africa and consists of two main tributaries: the White Nile, which rises from Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile, which rises from Lake Tana in Ethiopia.
These two rivers merge in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and flow northward, eventually emptying into the Mediterranean Sea.
While Ethiopia focuses on the potential benefits of the dam, the calculations in Khartoum and Cairo are becoming more complex.
Sudan’s Roseires Dam concern
For Sudan, the ecosystem of the Blue Nile will be negatively affected if approximately 300 cubic meters of water per second are not released. The size of the Renaissance Dam and its direct impact on the Roseires Dam, located about 100 kilometers away, are sources of serious concern.
The Roseires Dam, a hydroelectric power station, is situated on the Blue Nile in the Sudanese city of Ed-Damazin. Constructed between 1961 and 1966, the dam is used for irrigation and electricity generation, featuring a plant with a capacity of 280 megawatts.
Upgrades were made in 2013 to increase the dam’s storage and power generation capacity. This dam is considered the backbone of Sudan’s electricity grid, providing the country with clean and cheap electricity.
The safe filling and operation of both the Renaissance and Roseires dams depend on full compliance with the daily exchange of data between the two facilities.
Although this was stipulated in the 2015 Framework Agreement, the absence of a signed binding agreement means that commitments are not being fulfilled.
This situation jeopardizes the operation of the Roseires Dam due to a lack of information regarding discharge data, the safety status of the Renaissance Dam, emergency plans, and other technical operational matters.
Sudan argues that the necessary coordination must be based on a written agreement that guarantees the sharing of data on the filling and discharging of the dams.
Such an agreement should include a commitment to full cooperation to ensure the two dams operate in harmony, as the filling rules for the Roseires Dam depend on the amount of water released from the Renaissance Dam and the flood season.
Egypt’s search for alternatives
Egypt, meanwhile, continues to reject Addis Ababa’s policies regarding the dam, its future, and its negative impacts on the country’s water resources.
Egypt’s annual share of water from the Nile River is approximately 55 billion cubic meters, 80% of which is used in agriculture. Since Ethiopia began constructing and impounding water at the dam, the Egyptian government has resorted to various policies to reduce water consumption.
Chief among these measures are reducing the cultivation area for rice and focusing on crops that consume less water, such as corn, potatoes, and clover.
The government has also turned to projects like seawater desalination plants, wastewater treatment facilities, and the rehabilitation of thousands of kilometers of water canals to prevent water waste.
However, these measures and projects have not stopped Cairo from pursuing political and diplomatic efforts to compel Ethiopia to sign a binding legal agreement that secures the historical water shares of the downstream countries.
The historical roots of the dispute
The water dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia is not rooted solely in the Renaissance Dam but in the Nile waters themselves and whether Ethiopia recognizes Egypt’s 55.5 billion cubic meter share, established by the 1929 and 1959 agreements.
Ethiopia does not recognize these historical agreements, particularly the 1902 agreement signed between the then-Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II and Great Britain, which colonized Egypt and Sudan.
Addis Ababa argues that these agreements were signed during the colonial era and therefore cannot be inherited, while Egypt strictly adheres to the theory of state succession to international treaties.
This deep disagreement led to Egypt’s refusal to join the Nile Basin Countries Framework Agreement, signed in 2010 and known as the Entebbe Agreement. While Ethiopia and other countries ratified the agreement starting in 2013, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and the Democratic Republic of Congo did not become parties to it.
Egypt’s reservations at the time centered on Article 14b concerning water security and Article 8 regarding prior notification for projects. Egypt demanded that it and Sudan be informed and their approval obtained before the implementation of any project.
At the Kinshasa meeting in May 2009, Egypt insisted that the legal framework of the agreement include text in Article 14b on water security, explicitly stating that Egypt’s historical water share would not be touched.
Furthermore, it demanded that Article 8, concerning the principle of prior notification for downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) to object before any project begins, be included in the main body of the agreement rather than in the annexes; however, these demands were not met regarding the Renaissance Dam.
Complex political conditions and a long negotiation process
In February 2011, the Ethiopian government announced the start of construction on the Renaissance Dam. Some observers viewed this move as taking advantage of the critical political situation in Egypt following the January 25th Revolution and the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.
In Sudan, the government of President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in April 2019, but the country quickly descended into political tension and has been the scene of a bloody conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023. This situation has weakened Khartoum’s negotiating position on the water issue.
While Egypt was preoccupied with its internal affairs, then-Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid the foundation stone for the project in April 2011, initially named “Millennium” and later changed to the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”
Zenawi later proposed the establishment of a tripartite technical committee composed of the water ministers of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia to study the dam issue and reach a common vision and agreement that would satisfy all parties.
The committee was formed in September 2011 and began its meetings two months later. This marked the beginning of a long negotiation process that included dozens of technical and ministerial-level meetings but failed to produce any solution.
In December 2023, Egypt announced the end of the negotiation process related to the dam due to, according to a statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation at the time, “Ethiopia’s persistent refusal for years to accept any technical or legal middle-ground solution that would safeguard the interests of all three countries.”
Is there a solution to the conflict?
Last Tuesday, coinciding with the inauguration celebrations for the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia, Cairo lodged a formal protest by sending a letter to the Security Council condemning a “unilateral act” contrary to international law.
In the letter from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cairo stated that the giant dam is a “unilateral act contrary to law and international customs.”
Egypt emphasized that it “will not allow Ethiopia’s attempts to unilaterally dominate the management of its water resources and reserves the right to take all measures guaranteed by international law and the UN Charter to defend the existential interests of its people.”
However, Egypt has not yet specified what these measures will be.
It is evident that the period after the dam’s commissioning will not be like the one before, especially since the dam has now become a fait accompli and given the political and economic challenges facing Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
Diplomacy
Ukraine targets first prototype of European Freyja missile defense system in early 2027
As Ukraine continues to lobby allies for new weapons capabilities to counter Russian missile strikes, the country aims to have a prototype of the Freyja anti-ballistic system, developed in partnership with European allies, ready in the first half of next year.
David Aloyan, deputy secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council and director of the Freyja project, stated—as reported by Reuters—that an international steering committee tasked with calculating research and development costs will meet for the first time in the near future.
The anti-ballistic coalition was officially established two weeks ago at a summit held in the French capital, Paris. The summit was attended by leaders of 10 European nations, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside roughly 12 defense industry contractors.
Providing details on the timeline, Aloyan said: “We have an ambitious goal because we are working on a very tight schedule. We aim to have a viable prototype that can show its first practical results in the first half of next year.”
Ukraine remains chronically dependent on US-made Patriot air defense systems, which are currently the only weapons capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s hypersonic and high-velocity ballistic missiles. However, Patriot deliveries have faced persistent disruptions driven by political fluctuations, low inventory levels, and extended production cycles.
The Russian military intensified its ballistic missile strikes this month against the capital, Kyiv, and the southern port city of Odesa. Facing salvos of dozens of missiles, Ukraine was unable to destroy the majority of incoming targets due to a severe shortage of interceptor munitions.
The Ukrainian government has indicated that it is prepared to contribute a launch vehicle and an interceptor missile to the Freyja initiative. In comments made this month, President Zelenskyy remarked that the project has now become purely a “matter of testing,” expressing hope that the system will become operational within a year.
Kyiv expects its allies to provide specialized expertise and technology in advanced radars, sensors, and missile guidance and control electronics. Defense contractors participating in the project include Eurosam—the consortium behind the SAMP/T system—as well as Leonardo, Thales, and Saab.
Fire Point, the Ukrainian missile and drone manufacturer that developed the Flamingo cruise missile, announced that it will serve as the primary industrial partner for the project. The company disclosed last month that it had reached an agreement with German defense producer Hensoldt to supply the radar components required for the initiative.
The Freyja project stands out as an effort to construct a lower-cost alternative to the Patriot system, on which many European nations also rely. Other European air defense assets, such as the Franco-Italian SAMP/T and the German-made IRIS-T, have not yet demonstrated sufficient operational capability in intercepting ballistic missiles.
Zelenskyy likened the operational framework of the Freyja coalition to a Lego arrangement, in which defense industry leaders assemble interconnected components.
Emphasizing the flexibility of the design, Aloyan noted that manufacturers have been tasked with developing a system architecture featuring interchangeable components, stating:
“The core logic of this system is that it possesses an open architecture. If Denmark says, ‘I want a Freyja system configured with a Danish-made Weibel radar,’ that is possible. If Sweden states that it wishes to integrate a Saab system, that presents no issue either.”
Aloyan added that establishing a dedicated administrative body or fund to direct all project contributions and secure stable, continuous financing remains among the options under consideration.
The Ukrainian official stressed that direct corporate participation alongside sovereign governments would streamline bureaucracy, concluding: “The coalition must advance on practical grounds rather than political ones.”
Diplomacy
US expands Middle East air operations using German bases as regional casualties rise
Germany continues to provide crucial logistical support to the US military as Washington prepares for a major expansion of the war against Iran, utilizing its extensive network of installations across the country.
According to a report by German Foreign Policy, US fighter jets and troops are being routed through Ramstein Air Base—mirroring operations conducted prior to the outbreak of hostilities and throughout the first 40 days of the conflict—where forces remain stationed ahead of an announced wave of heavy airstrikes.
Spangdahlem Air Base is playing an equally vital role in the logistical pipeline. F-16 fighter jets stationed at the site were redeployed last week to staging areas in the Middle East, having returned from combat missions in the region only a few weeks prior.
Meanwhile, Landstuhl Regional Medical Center—the largest US military hospital outside the United States—serves as a critical medical hub. In recent days, approximately one dozen US service members, including several with severe injuries, were evacuated to the facility for treatment.
Medical staffing at Landstuhl has been expanded significantly in anticipation of a further rise in casualties.
Ramstein
The US armed forces are drawing heavily on their military infrastructure in Germany to execute troop concentrations directed at Iran.
Ramstein Air Base near Kaiserslautern—the largest US Air Force installation outside the US and headquarters for US Air Force forces in Europe and Africa—is operating continuously to facilitate the deployment.
Ramstein has long drawn international attention for housing a satellite relay station used to control US military drone operations across Africa, the Near East, and the Middle East.
Data streams for other operational maneuvers are also routed through Ramstein, specifically those serving the war in Iran.
Furthermore, the installation operates as a permanent logistical turnstile for the conflict. Shortly after the outbreak of hostilties, Spanish military aircraft that were denied permission by Madrid to participate in the war effort were rerouted to Ramstein.
In contrast to the Spanish government, Berlin has raised no objections to providing logistical support for the military campaign against Iran.
On Wednesday, a US E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) aircraft landed at Ramstein after departing Robins Air Force Base in the US state of Georgia, before proceeding toward the Middle East.
The aircraft provides real-time relay and tactical coordination between fighter jets and bombers during airborne strike operations.
Spangdahlem
Spangdahlem Air Base, located in the Eifel region, is serving as a key node in reinforcing the US Air Force presence in the Middle East ahead of a comprehensive expansion of the war.
Last week, US F-16 fighters permanently stationed at Spangdahlem were dispatched to the Middle East.
Their movement was complemented by F-35 jets deployed from RAF Lakenheath, northeast of Cambridge, and additional F-16s launched from Aviano Air Base in northeastern Italy.
The Spangdahlem-based F-16s had returned from combat operations in the war zone just weeks earlier.
These aircraft are specialized in Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) missions, designed to neutralize hostile air defense systems.
David Deptula, a retired US Air Force lieutenant general and dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Washington, told the US military newspaper Stars and Stripes that deploying fighter jets in such large numbers from all three US Air Force units in Europe to the Arabian Peninsula was highly unusual.
However, Deptula noted that toward the end of the Cold War, the US Air Force maintained nine operational units in Europe rather than three, pointing to a long-term decline in overall force capacity.
Landstuhl
Alongside Ramstein and Spangdahlem, Landstuhl Regional Medical Center—the largest American military hospital outside the US—is being utilized with heightened intensity in connection with the war in Iran.
In recent days, approximately 12 severely wounded US service members were evacuated from Jordan to Landstuhl for specialized care.
The arrivals have drawn public scrutiny, in part because the Trump administration has reported US casualty figures far less frequently than previous administrations.
While the death of US military personnel must be publicly disclosed under statutory requirements, observers in the US note that these requirements do not extend to private military contractors, who constitute a significant share of personnel on US military bases.
Following recent admissions by the Pentagon that three US service members were killed in Iranian strikes near Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, investigations by US news outlets revealed that roughly 100 US military personnel were wounded between June 7 and last weekend.
Material damage from Iranian retaliation
In addition to figures on wounded US military personnel, initial investigative media reports have begun detailing the extent of structural damage inflicted on American weaponry and military infrastructure.
As reported by The New York Times on Wednesday, Iranian forces concentrated their strikes this month on nine locations with a US military presence, down from 18 during the first 40 days of the war.
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was struck four times. According to the newspaper, drone strikes destroyed three buildings, two hangars, and structures believed to serve as living quarters.
Tower 22, a US military outpost in far northeastern Jordan along the Syrian border, also sustained severe damage.
In addition, hangars and a radar system at two other military bases in Jordan were hit, as was King Hussein International Airport, where US personnel are stationed.
In Bahrain, at least one warehouse was damaged, while a military tent was destroyed at Erbil International Airport in northern Iraq, where US troops are deployed.
Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait was also struck, and a radar system at Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base—which had been operational for only six months—was destroyed.
These incidents represent only a portion of the damage confirmed to date.
Undisclosed US casualties
Beyond Washington’s public statements, preparations behind the scenes are underscored by the recent deployment of more than 150 additional US medical personnel to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center.
Should US President Donald Trump order an expansion of US attacks, officials anticipate a parallel escalation in Iranian retaliatory strikes and a corresponding rise in US casualties.
These casualties will include severely wounded personnel who will be evacuated to Germany for medical treatment.
Servicemen killed in Iranian counterattacks are also likely to be routed through Germany before their remains are repatriated to the US. Flights operated by Air Force Mortuary Affairs Operations (AFMAO) carrying fallen personnel from the combat zone to the US routinely make layovers at Ramstein.
This procedure was followed during the recent repatriation of the bodies of four US soldiers killed in the Middle East. Flights from Ramstein to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware reportedly take between nine and ten hours.
Legal implications for Berlin
To expand a war of aggression that violates international law, President Trump has formally announced upcoming US strikes on civilian infrastructure—actions that constitute war crimes.
The announcement of an intent to order war crimes carries serious legal implications for the German government.
Germany continues to allow the US armed forces to utilize military infrastructure on its territory, including Ramstein, Spangdahlem, and Landstuhl, and grants overflight rights without hesitation.
According to Michael Riegner, professor of public law, international law, and comparative law at the University of Erfurt and director of the university’s Global Justice Clinic, the argument that this support carries no legal consequences is untenable.
Riegner argues that limiting Article 26, Paragraph 1 of the German Basic Law strictly to the Bundeswehr is legally unacceptable.
The constitutional clause mandates punishment for “acts tending to upset the peaceful relations between nations, especially an act preparing for a war of aggression.”
Riegner contends that anyone who assists in the execution of a war of aggression is guilty of aiding and abetting an unlawful act.
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