Germany concludes 2024 with unprecedented milestones in the armament and defense industry, solidifying its position as a key global player in military exports and domestic modernization. On Wednesday, the Bundestag Budget Committee approved 38 new armament projects, raising the total to 97—significantly surpassing the 55 projects approved last year.

Additionally, German arms exports reached a historic high, exceeding the 2023 record before the year’s end, now standing at €13.2 billion. For context, this figure was just €4 billion a decade ago.

Ukraine emerged as the largest recipient, accounting for 62% of Germany’s military equipment exports. Other major recipients include Turkey, Israel, India, and strategic Asian partners aiming to reduce reliance on Russian arms. These markets reflect Berlin’s strategy to support allies in the power dynamics against China and Russia.

Domestically, Germany has accelerated modernization across all branches of its armed forces. Highlights include substantial investments in the Bundeswehr’s digitalization, air defense systems, and naval capabilities. Among the notable projects: The procurement of 212CD class submarines jointly developed with Norway, with costs estimated at €4.7 billion. These submarines, optimized for deployment in the North Atlantic, are designed to counter Russia’s Northern Fleet. Construction of F127 air defense frigates at an estimated cost of €15 billion, equipped with Lockheed Martin Canada’s CMS 330 system, promoting “Europeanized” production free from U.S. export restrictions.

While Germany leads in advanced submarine classes, its frigate production reflects a blend of domestic and international systems, underscoring the collaborative nature of European defense manufacturing.

The approved projects span multiple military branches, including rocket artillery, thermal imaging equipment, and IT systems for the “Digitalization of Land Operations” project, Patriot missiles, Iris-T air defense systems, and space surveillance radar for the Air Force, and new data centers and armored vehicles for cyber forces. The 38 new projects alone account for €21 billion, with additional costs anticipated for future phases.

The German arms industry achieved record-breaking exports in 2024, with licenses totaling €13.2 billion by December 17. This marks a 200% increase compared to 2014. Arms deliveries to Ukraine played a pivotal role, with licenses worth €8.1 billion granted in 2024 alone.

Germany’s export strategy reflects its geopolitical alignment. Turkey, despite previously strained relations, ranked fifth in exports with €230.8 million. In Asia, Singapore and South Korea emerged as significant buyers, with licenses valued at €1.218 billion and €256.4 million, respectively. Germany has also deepened ties with India, authorizing licenses worth €437.6 million over the past two years to reduce New Delhi’s reliance on Russian defense supplies.

The Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) has reaffirmed its commitment to withdrawing Germany from the European Union (EU) and the eurozone should it come to power. This proposal, often referred to as ‘Dexit,’ forms a key component of the party’s draft election manifesto, which was distributed to its members ahead of a party conference in early January. The manifesto reiterates a stance initially introduced during the European election campaign in the summer.

The AfD envisions replacing the EU with a “Europe of the homelands,” described as a coalition of sovereign states engaged in a common market and an “economic and interest community.” The party also advocates for Germany to abandon the euro, the shared currency implemented in 2002, proposing instead a so-called “transfer union.”

While the manifesto acknowledges that a sudden departure would be detrimental, it suggests renegotiating Germany’s relationships with both EU member states and other European nations. To further this agenda, the AfD calls for a nationwide referendum on the issue.

Despite the AfD’s ambitions, legal experts point out that leaving the EU would be constitutionally challenging for Germany. Germany’s EU membership is enshrined in its constitution, and any exit would require a two-thirds majority in parliament—a hurdle that makes a unilateral withdrawal virtually impossible.

Even AfD leaders appear divided on the immediacy of a ‘Dexit.’ Co-chairman Tino Chrupalla admitted in February 2024 that it may already be “too late” for Germany to leave the EU, while Alice Weidel, the party’s other co-leader and candidate for chancellor, described Dexit as merely a “Plan B” in a recent Financial Times interview.

The AfD’s proposal has drawn sharp criticism from leading German economic institutions and industry groups. A May study by the German Economic Institute (Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, IW) warned that leaving the EU could cost Germany €690 billion over five years, reduce GDP by 5.6%, and lead to 2.5 million fewer jobs—economic impacts comparable to the combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis.

The German Association of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (Bundesverband mittelständische Wirtschaft, BVMW) was even more scathing, describing the AfD’s plans as an “economic kamikaze mission.”

AfD spokesperson Ronald Gläser dismissed these concerns, arguing that Germany could secure similar benefits through alternative agreements outside the EU framework. Citing Brexit, he suggested that fears of economic disaster were exaggerated: “All the fear scenarios about Brexit went more or less smoothly.”

Gläser contended that Germany’s economic prowess would sustain demand for its products across Europe even outside the EU, pointing to Switzerland’s non-EU membership as a comparable example.

Public sentiment, however, does not align with the AfD’s position. A recent poll by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), affiliated with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), found that 87% of Germans would vote to remain in the EU if a referendum were held. Despite this, Gläser argued that policy decisions should prioritize what is “necessary and important” over public opinion.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

The seventh EU-Western Balkans Summit, happening since the 2018 Sofia Summit, took place in Brussels on December 18th. The event brought together leaders from six Western Balkan nations alongside 27 EU heads of state and government. The summit followed the adoption of enlargement conclusions by the Council of the EU on Tuesday and preceded Thursday’s high-level European Council meeting.

The summit concluded with the Brussels declaration, reaffirming the commitment to a shared future and enlargement.

The EU-Western Balkan Summit took place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine war on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration and conflicts in the Middle East. Following its last enlargement with Croatia’s membership in 2013, geopolitical developments have since prompted the European Union to intensify its enlargement efforts.

In line with that, The Brussels Declaration, published after the Summit, stated “We share a common future and face urgent challenges that we can only overcome together. We owe it to our citizens to build a future of peace and prosperity, based on shared principles values, and common interests. The summit highlighted the importance of enlargement as a strategic investment in peace and security, as the new European Council President, Former Portugal Prime Minister Antonio Costa said: “Enlargement is the best geostrategic investment in our peace, security, and stability that we all can make.”

The Belgian Prime Minister, De Croo, also reaffirmed this statement by indicating that in today’s geopolitical landscape, it is essential to emphasize that the EU is the Western Balkans’ only true partner and that their aspirations to join the European Union are genuine. However, he warned that concrete steps on reforms should be taken to prevent another 2004 scenario, where ten countries became members of the Union at once.

‘Significant process in Montenegro and Albania’

Costa pointed to the significant progress achieved in the past year, particularly by Montenegro and Albania, as evidence of a “new momentum.” Costa noted a collective sense of responsibility among leaders and a renewed determination to accelerate the process, adding, “We should use this momentum to its fullest and create all the conditions necessary for enlargement because there is no doubt that the future of the Western Balkans is in our Union.”

Before the Summit, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis emphasized the urgency of accelerating Serbia’s path toward EU membership, calling it a cornerstone of stability in the Western Balkans. “It’s time to send a clear message to Serbia and its people: we want Serbia to become part of the European family,” he stated while noting that Serbia must align its foreign policy decisions with those of the EU.

‘Greece is the guardian of Albania’s European trajectory’

On Albania, Mitsotakis positioned Greece as “the guardian of Albania’s European trajectory,” stressing that issues related to the Greek national minority, including property rights and self-identification, are tied to Albania’s EU accession, not just bilateral concerns. He expressed satisfaction with Albania’s recent progress, marking it as a significant step forward.

On the same day of the Summit, the Union and Albania also signed a partnership agreement on security and defense, expanding the cooperation in fighting security menaces.

‘Neighborhood dilemmas and bilateral disputes’ are obstacles

Costa acknowledged the challenges facing the EU-Western Balkans relationship, emphasizing the need to resolve bilateral disputes and neighbourhood dilemmas. “Accession will be merit-based,” while answering a journalist’s question on possible member state blockages in Western Balkan countries.

The Declaration also stressed the critical need for reconciliation and good neighbourly relations, particularly between Pristina and Belgrade. The leaders stressed that the normalization of relations is vital for both parties and a prerequisite for further EU support. The EU urged the implementation of agreements like the Prespa Accord and the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, warning that further financial support hinges on tangible progress.

The EU also reiterated its commitment to the Green Agenda, urging Western Balkan partners to align their climate policies with EU standards and to work towards decarbonizing the region.

6 Billion euro worth ‘growth plan’

The initiative to double up the economies of the Western Balkans is one of the most ambitious projects.

The EU has launched a Growth Plan on November 8, 2023 to accelerate the socio-economic convergence of Western Balkans. The Plan aims to accelerate the region’s integration by advancing economic convergence, regional cooperation, and reforms. It seeks to integrate Western Balkan partners into the EU’s single market, enhance regional economic ties, and boost socio-economic reforms with increased pre-accession funding.

As von der Leyen stated in the press conference, the EU aims to bring Western Balkan countries closer to the Union level. The economies of Western Balkan countries currently stand at 35% of the EU’s economic level.

Central to the plan is the €6 billion Reform and Growth Facility for 2024-2027, combining grants (2 billion) and concessional loans (4 billion) tied to reform implementation. During the Summit, the leaders called for the swift implementation of Reform Agendas by the partners, which will serve as the foundation for the Growth Plan aimed at doubling economic growth in the region over the next decade.

Mobilizing Western Balkans against Russia

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who is known for her hawk-stance on Moscow, stated before the Summit that Russia “does not want peace,” emphasizing the need for Europe to fully support Ukraine.

She argued that while some seek quick solutions, the reality is that Russia’s stance creates a significant challenge. Strengthening Ukraine on the battlefield will also empower its position in negotiations, which benefits Europe. Kallas also expressed her goal to see significant progress in the EU enlargement process during her five-year term.

The Declaration highlighted unity again, against Russia, by commending Western Balkan partners to be aligned with EU foreign policy, emphasizing the enforcement of sanctions and combating circumvention. The Declaration also stressed “The Western Balkans partners should use the EU’s mechanism for joint purchases of gas and LNG in order to reduce their dependency on Russian gas.”

Migration management and regional security also take centre stage, with calls for stronger visa alignment and crackdowns on organized crime and trafficking. Moreover, combating hybrid threats and disinformation were stressed, as these topics have been placed in the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

As the EU remains the primary investor and trading partner for the Western Balkans, the summit concluded with a strong call for continued alignment with EU values and principles.

The leaders emphasized that actions must speak louder than words, particularly in implementing reform agendas. However, these conditionalities may lead to frustration if tangible results are not achieved promptly. Moreover, the EU’s own political crisis, economic instability, new configuration of the European Parliament and possibly renewed transatlantic relations may affect this ambitious process in the upcoming years.

Sofia to Brussels: Timeline of the EU-Western Balkan summits

2018 Sofia: The first ever EU-Western Balkan summit ended with the Sofia Declaration. It outlined new measures for enhanced cooperation in areas such as the rule of law, good governance, security, migration, socio-economic development and connectivity.

2020 Zagreb: At the Zagreb summit, EU leaders adopted the Zagreb Declaration, reaffirming their support for the Western Balkans’ European perspective and transformation. Leaders also discussed joint efforts to combat COVID-19, support for the health sector, and economic recovery. Due to the pandemic, the summit was held via videoconference.

2021 Brdo: At the Brdo summit on October 6, EU leaders and Western Balkans partners adopted the Brdo Declaration, outlining initiatives to support connectivity, green and digital transitions, and political and security cooperation in the region.

2022 Brussels: EU and Western Balkans leaders met in Brussels on June 23rd, to discuss EU integration progress, challenges from Russia’s war in Ukraine, and key investments under the Western Balkans’ economic and investment plan, as well as geostrategic issues.

2022 Tirana: On December 6, the first-ever EU-Western Balkans summit in the region took place in Tirana. The summit focused on reinforcing the strategic partnership between the EU and the Western Balkans, emphasizing EU integration. Key discussions included tackling the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War, enhancing political and policy engagement, strengthening security, combating terrorism and organized crime, and addressing migration challenges. The summit concluded with the issuance of the Tirana declaration.

2023 Brussels: On December 13, EU and Western Balkans leaders met in Brussels to reaffirm the region’s EU membership perspective. Key discussions included advancing gradual integration, building an economic foundation for the future with the newly introduced Growth Plan, mitigating the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and strengthening security and resilience. The summit concluded with the issuance of the Brussels Declaration.

These summits brought together the 27 EU member states and six Western Balkan nations so far, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo.