Europe
German industrial employment shrinks as service sector expands

Germany has lost nearly 250,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The decline in manufacturing jobs appears to have been obscured by a broader shift in employment trends.
According to Bundesbank data, the number of jobs in Germany rose by 4.8% between early 2020 and November of the previous year. This increase was driven by growth in service sectors, including real estate, healthcare, communications, and public administration.
However, among the most severely affected industrial sectors, such as automotive industry suppliers, the losses were substantial. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), an industry group, reported that approximately 11,000 jobs were lost last year alone among German car suppliers, marking them as one of the first sectors to announce layoffs as car production started to decrease.
Gesamtmetall, the lobby group for employers in the metal and electrical industries, has cautioned about further job reductions. They estimate that up to 300,000 more of its members could be made redundant within the next five years, representing a decline of about 7%.
Declining values of industrial companies in the DAX
The contraction of German industry is also reflected in the decreasing market capitalization of the sector. According to the Financial Times (FT), DAX constituents Volkswagen, Thyssenkrupp, and BASF have lost €50 billion, or 34%, of their market value over the last five years.
From 2010 to 2014, automakers in the DAX index were, on average, valued higher than their peers in other sectors. However, as demand started to stagnate, valuations declined.
VW’s deliveries to customers last year decreased by almost a fifth compared to 2019, before the pandemic. In other industrial sectors, steelmaker Thyssenkrupp announced plans to cut production capacity by up to a quarter and reduce 40% of jobs. BASF intends to cut costs by €2 billion annually at its Ludwigshafen center, the world’s largest chemical plant.
The biggest challenge: Energy costs
A major challenge for German industry is energy costs, which are significantly higher than those of its competitors in the US and China.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Germany, formerly Gazprom’s largest European customer, has increasingly transitioned to more expensive energy sources.
While the country remains Europe’s largest gas consumer, industry, especially steel and chemicals, accounts for 60% of Germany’s total consumption.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, energy-intensive companies in Germany are now producing approximately 20% less than before the war.
Tens of thousands of workers in the chemical industry under threat
From BASF, the world’s largest manufacturer, to numerous small family-owned businesses, Germany’s extensive chemical industry is among the most severely impacted.
According to Destatis data, around 40% of employment and over half of the revenues in Germany’s chemical industry are dependent on so-called basic chemicals, most of which are derived from gas and crude oil.
Producers of these materials, used in plastics, fertilizers, and coatings, depend on affordable energy to maintain their slim profit margins in a highly competitive market.
Germany’s chemical and energy industry union IG BCE warned in January that over 200 plants had either reduced capacity or shut down, endangering 25,000 jobs.
The sector, which also provides supplies to other industries, has long served as an indicator of industrial demand.
Corporate stress level in Germany above the European average
Corporate distress in Germany remains elevated and is projected to rise over the next 12 months, as restructuring experts at the US law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges told the FT.
The quarterly distress index, based on the financial health of approximately 3,750 listed European companies, estimates that in the most pessimistic scenario, Germany’s score could nearly double, reaching levels not seen since the peak of the pandemic.
The index employs 16 metrics to gauge corporate distress, including profitability, bankruptcy risk, and changes in valuation.
In contrast, according to the study, Britain, France, Spain, and Italy remain well below pandemic levels, even in the worst-case scenario.
Call for the next German government to ‘exit the crisis’
“Industry, property, and retail are the biggest drivers of distress in Europe, and Germany has two of them,” stated Andrew Wilkinson, partner and co-head of Weil’s restructuring practice in London.
Peter Leibinger, President of the Federation of German Industry, urged the next German government to prioritize strategies to steer the country out of the “deep economic crisis.”
“Order books are empty, machines are idle, and companies are looking abroad for investments. I don’t remember such a bad mood among industrial companies,” Leibinger said.
Europe
France bans Israeli arms manufacturers from Paris Air Show

France has banned four Israeli arms manufacturers from the Paris Air Show, escalating diplomatic tensions over the Gaza conflict and leading to accusations of discrimination.
This decision marks the latest sign of escalating tensions between the two countries over Israel’s occupation and blockade of Gaza.
The booths of Elbit Systems, Rafael, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), and Uvision were blocked off with black barriers on Monday after they refused to comply with the French government’s directive not to display offensive weapons.
In a statement, the Israeli Ministry of Defense declared, “This outrageous and unprecedented decision is the product of political and commercial concerns,” accusing France of trying to remove “weapons that are competitors to French industry” from the show.
“This decision was made at a time when Israel is fighting a necessary and just war to eliminate the nuclear and ballistic threat that endangers the Middle East, Europe, and the entire world,” the statement continued.
Diplomatic relations between Israel and France have deteriorated in recent months as French President Emmanuel Macron has intensified his criticism of the ongoing war in Gaza.
Macron is also spearheading an international initiative for the recognition of a Palestinian state, a move that Israel’s right-wing government is determined to block. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has condemned this initiative.
On the other hand, Macron has supported Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran’s nuclear threat, endorsing its actions against Iran.
According to French officials, the French government repeatedly communicated the ground rules to Israel over the past few weeks. Four of the nine Israeli companies participating in the Paris Air Show complied with the order not to display offensive weapons, and their booths remained open. The Israeli Ministry of Defense’s booths were also open on Monday.
A French official stated that the Israeli companies, which design and manufacture everything from unmanned aerial vehicles and air defense systems to missiles and aircraft, would be allowed to reopen their exhibits if they made the required changes.
IAI’s CEO, Boaz Levy, said the company tried to negotiate with the organizers but found its booth “closed off by black walls built overnight” on Monday morning.
“This kind of behavior is unacceptable and discriminates against us as Israelis and Jews, as all other participants in this air show were not subjected to these restrictions,” Levy added.
This is not the first time France and Israel have clashed over aviation and defense exhibitions since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023. After the French government decided that Israeli companies should not exhibit offensive weapons, dozens of Israeli firms were excluded from the Eurosatory exhibition in June 2024 and the Euronaval exhibition in November 2024.
The air show’s organizers announced that discussions are ongoing with various parties to “find a suitable solution to the situation.”
SIAE, a subsidiary of the French Aerospace Industries Association which organizes the event, stated that it had complied with “the instruction of the relevant French authorities to remove certain equipment exhibited at the Israeli stands” before the event.
SIAE added that the companies in question “still received permission to exhibit at the show.”
Europe
European gas prices rise amid fears of an escalating Middle East conflict

European natural gas prices have risen as traders prepare for the possibility of an escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the associated risks to global energy supply.
According to a report from Bloomberg, benchmark futures, which followed a volatile course in the previous session, increased by as much as 1.8%. US President Donald Trump demanded the evacuation of Tehran and later said that his early departure from the G7 summit in Canada had “nothing to do” with ceasefire efforts between Israel and Iran.
Although Europe appears to be in a good position regarding supply for now, its heavy dependence on the global flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) makes prices susceptible to sharp movements if geopolitical developments pose a risk to international energy trade. The continent will need more fuel in the coming months to replenish its natural gas storage, which fell to a three-year low this winter.
The most significant threat comes from the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz if the war escalates, thereby blocking shipments from Qatar, the largest LNG exporter. As the strait is also a vital route for oil shipments from the region, traders are closely monitoring tanker movements.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Frederik Witzemann, the impact of the conflict on international gas markets has been limited so far. Modest imports by China have made more fuel available for other buyers, such as Egypt, which rushed to find alternative suppliers after Israel cut off its flows.
Additionally, traders are following the European Union’s plans to phase out its dependence on Russian pipeline gas and LNG supplies by the end of 2027. This supply currently accounts for about 13% of the region’s imports. On Tuesday, the European Commission will announce its detailed proposals regarding the ban on these flows.
The Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s benchmark natural gas price, rose by 0.6% to €38.12 per megawatt-hour at 8:52 AM in Amsterdam.
Europe
Germany holds first national veterans’ day since World War II

On Sunday, June 15, Germany held its first celebration for military veterans since the Second World War.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius joined current and former soldiers and members of the public for events across the country, including a “veterans’ village” constructed in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin.
This marks a historic shift in a country where anything that could be seen as a “display of militarism” has been considered taboo for decades.
The new commemoration, established by a parliamentary resolution passed last year, is designed to “express gratitude, appreciation, and respect” for the Bundeswehr, Germany’s federal army.
The German Bundestag emphasized that the day also aims to deepen the bond between the military and the German people. At the ceremony in Berlin, Bundestag President Julia Klöckner of the CDU described the Bundeswehr as a “parliamentary army,” stating that this places a special responsibility on lawmakers.
She also acknowledged the demanding and often stressful nature of military service, stressing the need to provide soldiers with appropriate support.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz also stated on the social media platform X, “The Bundeswehr is an integral part of our society,” adding that those who serve or have served in the military deserve widespread appreciation, respect, and recognition.
“There won’t be tanks and fighter jets. We’re not there yet. But we are taking a really good first step,” Lieutenant Colonel Michael Krause, head of the newly established national veterans’ office, told the Financial Times (FT), comparing it to major military events in other countries.
Germany is channeling money and resources into its armed forces in response to NATO’s concerns about “Russian aggression.” The new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has pledged to make Germany’s military the “strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Sarah Brockmeier-Large from the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt said that the fact politicians finally agreed to hold a veterans’ day is “a symbol of a growing appreciation in German society that we need functioning armed forces and that soldiers provide a vital public service.”
Berlin’s role in two world wars created a deep-seated skepticism toward military power after 1945, particularly in West Germany, leading to the emergence of a strong pacifist movement.
For decades, the term “veteran” was mostly associated with those who fought in Adolf Hitler’s Wehrmacht, not with those who served in the Bundeswehr, which was founded in 1955 and placed under strict parliamentary control.
“We couldn’t be proud of our old wars. That’s why in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, there was no veteran culture in the German Bundeswehr,” said Patrick Sensburg, president of the German reservists’ association.
During the Cold War, when Germany was divided, the Bundeswehr only participated in operations outside NATO territory to assist with natural disasters.
After “reunification” in 1990, the National People’s Army of the German Democratic Republic was disbanded, and a small number of its soldiers joined the Bundeswehr.
The newly unified army soon began participating in combat operations abroad. German warplanes helped bomb the former Yugoslavia during the NATO-led Kosovo mission in 1999.
But the most significant event for the veterans’ movement was the participation of 93,000 German soldiers in the US-led war in Afghanistan over nearly 20 years. Initially declared a German peacekeeping mission, it evolved into a combat operation as Bundeswehr troops fought the Taliban.
A total of 59 German soldiers were killed in the conflict, which also claimed the lives of about 3,000 American and allied soldiers and more than 100,000 Afghan civilians.
Those who served in Afghanistan, including many who returned home with physical and psychological wounds, initiated a grassroots movement to establish a veterans’ day, inspired by events like Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, Armed Forces Day in Great Britain, or Veterans Day in the US.
In 2012, an attempt by then-defense minister Thomas de Maizière to introduce the idea failed due to widespread political opposition.
“I think it was too early,” said military historian Sönke Neitzel, noting that at the time, Germany’s combat operations in Afghanistan were still seen as something that “should never have happened.”
But the pressure from former soldiers and the associations established to care for them continued.
Last year, German lawmakers approved a new plan to celebrate veterans “publicly and visibly” every year on June 15. Defense Minister Pistorius called it a “strong, important, and, yes, overdue sign of appreciation and gratitude.”
There is still opposition to the idea. Die Linke (The Left Party), which received 9% of the vote in the February parliamentary elections, organized an event in Berlin on Sunday titled, “We will not celebrate your wars.”
The party argued that the new veterans’ day was designed to “make war acceptable” and create “cannon fodder” for the German armed forces, at a time when military leaders are warning they need to recruit tens of thousands of additional soldiers in the coming years.
In the eastern states, formerly part of the German Democratic Republic, there is widespread opposition to Germany being one of Ukraine’s largest arms suppliers, partly due to the region’s historical ties with Russia.
But Katja Hoyer, a historian and author of the book Beyond the Wall: East Germany 1949-1990, argued that East Germans, who are disproportionately represented in the lower ranks of the Bundeswehr, still show broad support for the military and those who have served in it.
“The idea of rearming and strengthening the Bundeswehr is not a problem for many East Germans. There is a difference between the attitude towards the military in general and the attitude towards this conflict [in Ukraine],” she said.
The establishment of an annual event has been welcomed by veterans, although some remain cautious.
Thorsten Gärtner, a senior sergeant in the Bundeswehr who served five tours in Afghanistan and suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder, said he still does not always feel comfortable wearing his uniform on public transport in Berlin.
“I hope that one day it will be like in other countries, like the US, with an ID card for veterans and a 10% discount everywhere. I doubt that will happen. It’s not yet accepted. It will take a very long time,” Gärtner said.
Meanwhile, Prince Harry of the United Kingdom also released a video message in German to commemorate Germany’s first Veterans’ Day.
In his message, the Duke of Sussex wore various ceremonial medals, including the Afghanistan Campaign Medal, the Golden Jubilee Medal, the Diamond Jubilee Medal, and the Platinum Jubilee Medal.
Beginning his message in fluent German, the prince greeted viewers with “Guten Tag Deutschland” (Good Day Germany) before switching to English.
Prince Harry claimed it was a “great honor” to be tasked with delivering a message to the Germans on their inaugural Veterans’ Day. He said, “The warmth, enthusiasm, and unwavering support shown by the German people to our global community of wounded soldiers was truly impressive. You have certainly delivered on your promise to create a home of respect.”
Prince Harry praised the strength and resilience of veterans, describing them as “living testaments to resilience and moral courage.”
“Today, let us together renew our commitment to serve one another, to protect the freedoms that define who we are, for the enduring promise of peace, dignity, and democracy,” he added.
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