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‘Non-Western lingo was used to show that relations with China are considered independent of the West’

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The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Turkey, who met with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and then President Erdoğan in Ankara yesterday, can be seen as an opportunity to put relations back on track after they were strained by the domestic political agenda during the election period. In particular, Wang’s emphasis on the need to encourage more Chinese companies to invest and do business in Turkey seems to have pleased Ankara, which is seeking foreign investment in the midst of an economic crunch.

Indeed, the center of gravity of the meeting was the Central Corridor from Beijing to London, with Turkey at its center. While President Erdoğan expressed his desire to accelerate cooperation in the context of harmonizing the Belt and Road Initiative and the Central Corridor, Wang Yi, who is also a Politburo Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Director of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, stated that “they are ready to enhance mutual strategic trust and deepen cooperation with Turkey”.

The Chinese Foreign Minister emphasized that they support Turkey to play an important role in the regional and international arena and that they oppose any foreign interference in Turkey’s internal affairs.

Chinese media also highlighted President Erdoğan’s telling Wang that they “do not support NATO’s increasing activities in the Asia-Pacific” and emphasizing their commitment to the “one-China” principle.

The Uighur issue, seen as one of the most critical problems in the relations between the two countries, was glossed over with a sentence such as “The situation of Uighur Turks was also discussed on the occasion of the visit”, once again showing that the emphasis and statements made on the ‘Uighur issue’ during the election period were handled in the context of domestic politics.

‘Economy and trade dynamics are catalysts in Turkey-China relations’

Commenting on the visit to Harici, Istanbul Gedik University ASEAN Center Director Dr. Sibel Karabel pointed out the importance of timing conjuncturally and said the following:

“First of all, it is necessary to briefly evaluate the state of Turkey-China relations in the current conjuncture and the extent of economic and trade relations. The strategic partnership of the two countries should also be emphasized in this context. In 1971, diplomatic relations were established and as President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in the meeting, Turkey has been adhering to the ‘one China’ policy since then. In 2010, a strategic partnership was established. In 2015, Turkey officially joined the Belt and Road Initiative with a memorandum of understanding. And mutual commitments have been made to continuously increase the volume of bilateral trade and engagement between the two countries in the regional and global context.”

Stating that economic and commercial dynamics are “the catalyst” in Turkey-China relations, Karabel listed the following data: “When we evaluate the background of the Belt and Road Initiative, a target was set for the mutual trade volume between the two countries to reach 50 billion dollars as of 2015. We are talking about a trade volume of 33 billion dollars. On the other hand, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit against China, which unfortunately increases rapidly every year, especially between 2019 and 2022, is an important issue. In fact, in this context, the Belt and Road initiative is both an initiative that will highlight Turkey’s potential to become a center for transit trade and an initiative that has the caliber that can cure this problem. In other words, the investments made and planned to be made in the Belt and Road initiative have the potential to turn these trade dynamics between Turkey and China a little more in Turkey’s favor.”

Pointing out that Turkey is currently lagging behind this potential, Karabel summarizes the dynamics of the current commercial relationship as follows: “We know that the total investment of Chinese companies in the Belt and Road Initiative between 2013 and 2022 is approximately 1.4 trillion dollars. And in the same period, we see that the investments allocated to Turkey are 5.11 billion dollars. So our share in total investments is around 1.3 percent. And especially when we look at the trade balance between Turkey and China between 2019 and 2022, we see that imports have doubled. In other words, by nature, semi-finished goods are imported from China and processed and re-exported to the European Union countries. This is the dynamic of the trade relationship.”

Central Corridor emphasized

Sibel Karabel noted that the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor were particularly emphasized in the talks, and that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan drew attention to different energy fields, aviation fields, different sectors, and mentioned “improving the Belt and Road Initiative’s ability to respond to global threats and global challenges”.

Underlining the importance of Wang Yi’s emphasis on “developing strategic mutual trust and deepening cooperation mechanisms”, Karabel said, “Wang Yi even talked about a future-oriented and broad-targeted relationship dynamic in his meeting with President Erdoğan.”

‘A relationship within its own dynamics separate from the West’

On the other hand, drawing attention to President Erdoğan’s emphasis on the ‘One China policy’ and the fact that China’s development is not perceived as a threat by Turkey, Karabel stated that the expression “China’s development is perceived as a threat” is a Western jargon, and that it is a matter of how the West sees China: “The West perceive China’s development as a threat when evaluated from the realist paradigm in the context of the relative balance of power on the global level.”

In this context, Karabel said that Erdoğan’s statement that “they do not see China’s development as a threat” can also be considered as a “tacit reference” to NATO documents and commented as follows “In fact, there is a tacit emphasis here that Turkey’s relations with China are independent from the West and have their own dynamics. This is an important emphasis.”

The importance of the Central Corridor and Turkey increased after the Ukraine crisis

Karabel also touched upon the importance of the Ukraine issue in the bilateral relations and discussed this in the context of Turkey’s growing importance in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor:

“The Belt and Road Initiative is actually a very dynamic initiative and is being pursued under the direction of the National Planning Commission in China. It is not only a matter of combining the plans, projects and infrastructure lines that were declared in 2013 and have been rigidly and rigidly implemented since then, but also the articulation of previous mechanisms and projects into the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, the Central Corridor, where Turkey is located, is actually more prominent in the context of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, one of the biggest trademarks of the Central Corridor is that it is more advantageous than the Northern Corridor and the Southern Corridor. On the trade route from China to Europe, it has a cost advantage because it stops at fewer countries. There is also a very serious saving in time. It significantly reduces the number of days of transportation. In fact, before Ukraine, the route that China tended to use more was the Northern route. Now there are more countries on the Southern route. There are countries subject to sanctions etc. So now, after the Ukraine incident, the importance of the Middle Corridor has increased a bit more for China.”

The course of relations with the US, EU and China reflects the new era of Turkish foreign policy

On the other hand, evaluating the visit together with the NATO summit, Karabel points out that events and sectors are intertwined with each other and that this situation reflects the new era of Turkish foreign policy:

“At the NATO summit, the F-16s came to the fore, especially in the Swedish issue, and on the other hand, Turkey’s integration with the European Union and the European Union membership negotiation process were brought back to the agenda. The revival of Turkey’s full membership negotiations with the EU is a step towards revitalizing the almost frozen relationship. Turkey’s relations with the European Union do not only consist of membership negotiations. That is an important part, but there are also acute issues. For example, the Customs Union, modernization of the Customs Union negotiations, visa liberalization. In fact, there are a number of acute mini-sectoral issues. Therefore, on the one hand, there is an effort to revitalize these, and on the other hand, there is an effort to carry out relations with the United States in a way to develop relations on a more common ground, such as the F-16 issue.

On the other hand, as a result of the conjunctural developments in relations with China and Asia, we observe that Turkey’s leverage is actually increasing, especially in issues such as being an epicenter of transportation and turning this structural trade balance in its relations with China more in its favor. These are indeed conjunctural and historical opportunities, important opportunities.”

Diplomacy

New Pope Leo XIV delivers message of peace

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From his first moments on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, Pope Leo XIV gave important clues about what kind of leader he would be for the 1.4 billion-member Catholic Church.

The US “Cardinal Robert Prevost,” as he was known before becoming Pope Leo XIV, was elected as the new pope by the world’s cardinals on Thursday, the second day of the conclave held to elect the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away last month.

Leo, who made history as the first US pope, also holds dual citizenship in Peru, where he served as a missionary for decades before becoming a cardinal.

The first clue Leo gave was the name he chose. Popes usually use this choice to give the first important signal about the priorities of their new papacy.

Francis had taken his name from St. Francis of Assisi, who in the 13th century rejected wealth and wanted to care for the poor.

The last pope to take the name Leo, Leo XIII, had focused during his papacy from 1878 to 1903 on defending the rights of workers, demanding fair wages, fair working conditions, and the right to join unions.

Jesuit commentator Thomas Reese, who closely follows the papacy, claimed, “Cardinal Prevost shows his commitment to the church’s social teaching by choosing the name Leo XIV.”

Leo’s second message was his choice of language and words, which clearly emphasized the need for peace. Francis had also often focused on this issue.

Speaking to the crowd gathered in St. Peter’s Square, the new Pope chose Italian and Spanish, and did not mention the US.

Leo’s first public words were, “La pace sia con tutti voi!” (“Peace be with all of you!”)

Before entering the secret conclave on May 7, the world’s cardinals had issued a statement condemning the conflicts in “Ukraine, the Middle East, and many other regions of the world” and making a “heartfelt call” for peace.

The new pope stated that he wanted to “share God’s peace,” describing it as “an unarmed peace and a disarming peace,” and added that he was “humble and determined.”

Leo also recounted Pope Francis, who passed away, blessing the crowd in Rome for the last time on Easter Sunday, one day before his death.

The new Pope said, “Pope Francis’s weak but always courageous voice is still in our ears.”

Leo asked for permission to give the blessing Francis had given a few weeks earlier and said, “God loves us, God loves everyone, and evil will not prevail. We are in God’s hands.”

According to Reuters, Leo’s third clue was his choice of clothing. Unlike Francis, who rejected all symbols of the papacy, including on his first day after being elected in 2013, Leo wore the traditional red papal cape over his white cassock.

Thus, although Leo followed Francis’s tradition, he showed that he was “a new and different pope.”

On the other hand, although the new pope is US, there is no sign yet that relations between the Donald Trump administration and the Vatican will be much better.

Furthermore, a social media account opened in the new pope’s name appears to have repeatedly criticized the Trump administration, especially Vice President JD Vance, in the months and years before he began his papal duties.

A series of posts published under the “Robert Prevost” account show that the Chicago-born Cardinal shared an article criticizing Vance’s interpretation of faith and the strict immigration policies he advocated along with President Donald Trump.

In mid-April, the same account reposted someone else’s criticism of Trump’s meeting with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele in the Oval Office and pointed to an op-ed by Washington, D.C. Auxiliary Catholic Bishop Evelio Menjivar, which drew attention to the suffering of migrants deported to El Salvador by the Trump administration.

The op-ed reposted by Prevost asks, “Don’t you see the suffering? Doesn’t your conscience bother you?”

As a more striking example, in February, this account shared an op-ed published in the liberal-leaning Catholic newspaper National Catholic Reporter, titled “JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others”.

Catholics are the largest Christian denomination in the US, and Trump heavily sought Catholic votes in key states to win the 2024 presidential election.

Trump appointed several Catholics, as well as Vance, to high cabinet positions. Pope Francis, who died on April 21, had regularly criticized the Trump administration and had once sharply rebuked Vance for his interpretation of the church’s teaching on love.

Like his predecessor, Leo also comes from a “more progressive and inclusive” wing of Catholicism, but still seems to defend traditional Catholic views on issues like LGBT rights.

The President on Thursday immediately congratulated Leo, who spent most of his adult life in Peru, on his election and promised to meet with the new pope soon.

Trump wrote on Truth Social, “It is a great honor to realize that he is the first American pope. How exciting and what a great honor for our country. I look forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV. It will be a very meaningful moment!”

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US and United Kingdom sign limited trade deal

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The US and the United Kingdom have signed a significant trade agreement after years of negotiations.

Under the agreement, the 10% “reciprocal” tariff rate applied to British goods remains unchanged, while the United Kingdom will benefit from exemptions on steel and automobiles and increased market access for agricultural exports.

The agreement also leaves the door open for further negotiations in the future. US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “The final details will be written in the coming weeks.”

Speaking by phone at the White House press conference, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the agreement as “historic,” stating, “This will increase trade between our countries. It will not only protect jobs but also create employment and open up market access.”

Although the agreement is far from a comprehensive free trade agreement, the United Kingdom became the first country to sign such a deal with Trump.

British automotive sector breathes a sigh of relief

The most significant change is the exemption from the general 25% additional tariff applied to steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Under the agreement, tariffs on British car exports will be reduced to 10%, with an annual quota of 100,000 units.

British prime ministerial sources say this figure is almost equal to the total amount the United Kingdom exported last year. If this quota is exceeded, vehicles will be subject to the 25% tariff.

On the other hand, this rate is four times the 2.5% tariff the UK benefited from before Trump’s second presidential term.

Nevertheless, the reduction in tariffs will provide much-needed relief to British car manufacturers, who exported £9 billion last year and are the United Kingdom’s largest goods exporter to the US.

Reciprocal steps in the steel and aerospace sectors

The agreement completely removes tariffs for the UK’s struggling steel industry, which is facing a crisis under the threat of blast furnace closures and job losses.

The US is currently the United Kingdom’s second most important steel export market after the EU: the American market accounts for 9% of the country’s steel exports by value and 7% by volume.

The US also promises exemptions for UK aerospace parts, while in return, the United Kingdom gains “preferential access” to aerospace components.

Speaking in the Oval Office, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, “We have agreed to allow Rolls Royce engines and aircraft parts of that nature to be imported tariff-free.”

Initially, aerospace parts, including those previously exempted for security reasons, were included in the general 10% reciprocal tariff.

London did not compromise on digital tax

It came as a surprise to many that the United Kingdom did not compromise on the digital services tax despite US pressure to reduce the tax. The 2% tax targets the revenues of tech giants like Amazon, Meta, and Google and is estimated to generate £800 million this year. This tax had long drawn criticism from the US on the grounds that it discriminated against American companies.

But as POLITICO first reported on Thursday, the tax did not change as part of the agreement.

Instead, both countries decided to work on a digital trade agreement to eliminate bureaucracy for exporters and simplify customs procedures.

Christine Bliss, President of the Coalition of Services Industries, said in a statement, “The UK’s digital services tax needs to be discussed and addressed in more detail to ensure it is applied fairly to American service providers.”

The technology agreement also envisages greater cooperation in areas such as biotechnology, life sciences, quantum computing, nuclear fusion, and aerospace.

There was also no compromise on the United Kingdom’s online safety rules, which was a great relief for campaigners.

The London government had announced last month, under pressure from Washington, that online safety rules would be reviewed in trade talks with the US, drawing significant backlash.

The United Kingdom’s US Ambassador Peter Mandelson told POLITICO he was “very pleased with the outcome,” adding that his country had “achieved all its main demands and that the agreement will now open the door to a deeper and longer-term US-UK technology partnership.”

Reciprocal market openness and food standards in agriculture

In a move met with skepticism by the agricultural lobby in Great Britain, the countries signed a new reciprocal market access agreement on beef. Under the agreement, British farmers were granted a tariff-free quota of 13,000 metric tons and a reduced tariff rate of between 4% and 10%.

On the other hand, US farmers will also be able to export the same amount of beef to the UK tariff-free.

But more importantly, all imported meat must comply with United Kingdom food standards. This means British farmers can breathe a sigh of relief that hormone-treated beef will not be arriving at their doors anytime soon.

Food standards had been a contentious issue since the United Kingdom-US free trade agreement negotiations began under the first Trump administration in May 2020.

A boon for ethanol exports to the US

In a surprise move, the US was also granted a new tariff-free ethanol quota for the first 1.4 billion liters. Previously, US ethanol exported to the United Kingdom was subject to a tariff of between 10% and 50%, depending on its use.

Speaking at the White House press conference, Trump said the agreement would “significantly” increase market access for American beef, ethanol, and almost all products produced by large farmers.

According to White House documents, the agreement will create “$5 billion in new export opportunities for US farmers, ranchers, and producers.” More than $700 million of this figure will come from ethanol exports, and $250 million from other agricultural products such as beef.

Tom Bradshaw, President of the National Farmers Union, said, “Our biggest concern is that the heavy burden of tariff removal in other sectors of the economy is being placed on the shoulders of two agricultural sectors,” adding that British agriculture “cannot continue to bear such imbalances in future negotiations.”

Bradshaw also added that the inclusion of bioethanol in the agreement “raises concerns for British arable farmers,” and said they were examining what this means for the sustainability of domestic bioethanol production and its potential impact on their members.

The White House also announced that the countries have decided to work together to improve industrial and agricultural market access.

Preferential treatment for pharmaceuticals

The agreement will also allow Britain to negotiate a preferential outcome on pharmaceutical tariffs, even though the US has not yet imposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

Pharmaceuticals are the United Kingdom’s second largest export item to the US. The UK exported £6.6 billion worth of pharmaceuticals last year, and this figure accounted for 11.1% of the country’s total exports to the US.

On April 1, Trump launched an investigation into the impact of pharmaceutical imports on national security and announced on Tuesday that he would impose tariffs on this sector “in the next two weeks.”

On the other hand, it is not yet clear whether the United Kingdom will receive preferential treatment regarding the tariffs Trump will impose on the film industry.

Over the weekend, the US President threatened to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films, saying that incentives offered by other countries to attract filmmakers to their countries posed a threat to US national security.

Caroline Dinenage, Chair of the Culture Committee, argued that tariffs on films were “contrary to the interests of American companies” due to “investments in UK facilities and talent based on intellectual property rights held by the US.”

Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said, “At this stage, it is not clear exactly what kind of tariffs the US is proposing to apply in relation to films.”

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Trump administration eyes tariff reduction ahead of China negotiations

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The Trump administration in the US is considering a “dramatic tariff reduction” in talks with China this weekend to ease tensions and alleviate the economic strain both sides have begun to feel.

According to sources close to the preparations for the talks, which will begin on Saturday in Geneva led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, the US side aims to reduce tariffs to below 60% as a first step it believes China might accept, according to Bloomberg.

If progress is made in the two-day talks, these reductions could be implemented next week.

The sources stated that the talks would be preliminary in nature and aimed at airing grievances rather than finding solutions to the long list of issues between the two sides.

The same sources added that the situation is uncertain and a reduction in tariffs in the near term is not guaranteed.

According to the information received, high on the US wish list is the removal of China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements used in magnet production, which have disrupted various industries. Progress has also been made on fentanyl.

The sources stated that separate talks could soon be held on reducing China’s exports of this opioid derivative, which has contributed to the increase in overdose deaths in recent years.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, “The sole purpose of the administration in these negotiations is to advance President Trump’s America First economic agenda towards fair and reciprocal trade relations. All discussions about ‘target’ tariff rates are baseless speculation.”

The biggest challenge facing the Trump administration is the extremely high level of tariffs between the world’s two largest economies. US tariffs on many Chinese imports have reached 145%.

In statements made on Thursday, US officials, including President Donald Trump, clearly indicated their intention to lower the tariffs they rapidly increased in response to China’s retaliation against the tariffs announced on April 2.

Trump told reporters on Thursday while outlining a US-UK trade deal, “They can’t go up any higher, they’re at 145%, so we know they’re coming down. I think we’re going to have a good weekend with China.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC, “De-escalating, bringing these rates down to where they could be, where they should be, I think that’s Scott Bessent’s goal. I think that’s the Chinese delegation’s goal. And that’s the good outcome the President is hoping for, a world where there’s de-escalation, where we’re back together, and we’re working on a big deal.”

US stock markets rose on Thursday as investors reacted positively to Trump’s comments on the trade talks with China.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials are cautious about their goals in the talks. On Thursday, Beijing reiterated its call for the Trump administration to lift the unilateral tariffs it imposed on China.

Ministry of Commerce spokesman He Yadong said the US “should approach the talks with sincerity and be ready to correct its mistakes.”

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