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‘Non-Western lingo was used to show that relations with China are considered independent of the West’

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The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Turkey, who met with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and then President Erdoğan in Ankara yesterday, can be seen as an opportunity to put relations back on track after they were strained by the domestic political agenda during the election period. In particular, Wang’s emphasis on the need to encourage more Chinese companies to invest and do business in Turkey seems to have pleased Ankara, which is seeking foreign investment in the midst of an economic crunch.

Indeed, the center of gravity of the meeting was the Central Corridor from Beijing to London, with Turkey at its center. While President Erdoğan expressed his desire to accelerate cooperation in the context of harmonizing the Belt and Road Initiative and the Central Corridor, Wang Yi, who is also a Politburo Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Director of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, stated that “they are ready to enhance mutual strategic trust and deepen cooperation with Turkey”.

The Chinese Foreign Minister emphasized that they support Turkey to play an important role in the regional and international arena and that they oppose any foreign interference in Turkey’s internal affairs.

Chinese media also highlighted President Erdoğan’s telling Wang that they “do not support NATO’s increasing activities in the Asia-Pacific” and emphasizing their commitment to the “one-China” principle.

The Uighur issue, seen as one of the most critical problems in the relations between the two countries, was glossed over with a sentence such as “The situation of Uighur Turks was also discussed on the occasion of the visit”, once again showing that the emphasis and statements made on the ‘Uighur issue’ during the election period were handled in the context of domestic politics.

‘Economy and trade dynamics are catalysts in Turkey-China relations’

Commenting on the visit to Harici, Istanbul Gedik University ASEAN Center Director Dr. Sibel Karabel pointed out the importance of timing conjuncturally and said the following:

“First of all, it is necessary to briefly evaluate the state of Turkey-China relations in the current conjuncture and the extent of economic and trade relations. The strategic partnership of the two countries should also be emphasized in this context. In 1971, diplomatic relations were established and as President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in the meeting, Turkey has been adhering to the ‘one China’ policy since then. In 2010, a strategic partnership was established. In 2015, Turkey officially joined the Belt and Road Initiative with a memorandum of understanding. And mutual commitments have been made to continuously increase the volume of bilateral trade and engagement between the two countries in the regional and global context.”

Stating that economic and commercial dynamics are “the catalyst” in Turkey-China relations, Karabel listed the following data: “When we evaluate the background of the Belt and Road Initiative, a target was set for the mutual trade volume between the two countries to reach 50 billion dollars as of 2015. We are talking about a trade volume of 33 billion dollars. On the other hand, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit against China, which unfortunately increases rapidly every year, especially between 2019 and 2022, is an important issue. In fact, in this context, the Belt and Road initiative is both an initiative that will highlight Turkey’s potential to become a center for transit trade and an initiative that has the caliber that can cure this problem. In other words, the investments made and planned to be made in the Belt and Road initiative have the potential to turn these trade dynamics between Turkey and China a little more in Turkey’s favor.”

Pointing out that Turkey is currently lagging behind this potential, Karabel summarizes the dynamics of the current commercial relationship as follows: “We know that the total investment of Chinese companies in the Belt and Road Initiative between 2013 and 2022 is approximately 1.4 trillion dollars. And in the same period, we see that the investments allocated to Turkey are 5.11 billion dollars. So our share in total investments is around 1.3 percent. And especially when we look at the trade balance between Turkey and China between 2019 and 2022, we see that imports have doubled. In other words, by nature, semi-finished goods are imported from China and processed and re-exported to the European Union countries. This is the dynamic of the trade relationship.”

Central Corridor emphasized

Sibel Karabel noted that the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor were particularly emphasized in the talks, and that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan drew attention to different energy fields, aviation fields, different sectors, and mentioned “improving the Belt and Road Initiative’s ability to respond to global threats and global challenges”.

Underlining the importance of Wang Yi’s emphasis on “developing strategic mutual trust and deepening cooperation mechanisms”, Karabel said, “Wang Yi even talked about a future-oriented and broad-targeted relationship dynamic in his meeting with President Erdoğan.”

‘A relationship within its own dynamics separate from the West’

On the other hand, drawing attention to President Erdoğan’s emphasis on the ‘One China policy’ and the fact that China’s development is not perceived as a threat by Turkey, Karabel stated that the expression “China’s development is perceived as a threat” is a Western jargon, and that it is a matter of how the West sees China: “The West perceive China’s development as a threat when evaluated from the realist paradigm in the context of the relative balance of power on the global level.”

In this context, Karabel said that Erdoğan’s statement that “they do not see China’s development as a threat” can also be considered as a “tacit reference” to NATO documents and commented as follows “In fact, there is a tacit emphasis here that Turkey’s relations with China are independent from the West and have their own dynamics. This is an important emphasis.”

The importance of the Central Corridor and Turkey increased after the Ukraine crisis

Karabel also touched upon the importance of the Ukraine issue in the bilateral relations and discussed this in the context of Turkey’s growing importance in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor:

“The Belt and Road Initiative is actually a very dynamic initiative and is being pursued under the direction of the National Planning Commission in China. It is not only a matter of combining the plans, projects and infrastructure lines that were declared in 2013 and have been rigidly and rigidly implemented since then, but also the articulation of previous mechanisms and projects into the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, the Central Corridor, where Turkey is located, is actually more prominent in the context of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, one of the biggest trademarks of the Central Corridor is that it is more advantageous than the Northern Corridor and the Southern Corridor. On the trade route from China to Europe, it has a cost advantage because it stops at fewer countries. There is also a very serious saving in time. It significantly reduces the number of days of transportation. In fact, before Ukraine, the route that China tended to use more was the Northern route. Now there are more countries on the Southern route. There are countries subject to sanctions etc. So now, after the Ukraine incident, the importance of the Middle Corridor has increased a bit more for China.”

The course of relations with the US, EU and China reflects the new era of Turkish foreign policy

On the other hand, evaluating the visit together with the NATO summit, Karabel points out that events and sectors are intertwined with each other and that this situation reflects the new era of Turkish foreign policy:

“At the NATO summit, the F-16s came to the fore, especially in the Swedish issue, and on the other hand, Turkey’s integration with the European Union and the European Union membership negotiation process were brought back to the agenda. The revival of Turkey’s full membership negotiations with the EU is a step towards revitalizing the almost frozen relationship. Turkey’s relations with the European Union do not only consist of membership negotiations. That is an important part, but there are also acute issues. For example, the Customs Union, modernization of the Customs Union negotiations, visa liberalization. In fact, there are a number of acute mini-sectoral issues. Therefore, on the one hand, there is an effort to revitalize these, and on the other hand, there is an effort to carry out relations with the United States in a way to develop relations on a more common ground, such as the F-16 issue.

On the other hand, as a result of the conjunctural developments in relations with China and Asia, we observe that Turkey’s leverage is actually increasing, especially in issues such as being an epicenter of transportation and turning this structural trade balance in its relations with China more in its favor. These are indeed conjunctural and historical opportunities, important opportunities.”

DIPLOMACY

Chinese satellite company to challenge Musk’s Starlink in Brazil

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A Chinese state-backed company is set to launch a satellite internet service in Brazil, aiming to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Spacesail, a developer of high-speed internet services via satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), made the announcement during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Brazil. The visit marked the signing of an expanded partnership with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This development follows ongoing tensions between Musk, owner of SpaceX and its Starlink subsidiary, and Brazilian authorities over allegations of misinformation on his X social media network.

According to Chinese state media, Spacesail has partnered with Brazil’s state-owned Telebrás to deliver satellite communications and broadband internet to underserved areas.

A spokesperson for the Brazilian communications ministry stated that the companies would assess demand in regions lacking fiber-optic infrastructure, with plans to launch the service by 2026.

“Spacesail is committed to being Brazil’s long-term partner,” CEO Jie Zheng told reporters on Tuesday.

Musk-Lula tensions highlight Starlink’s market dominance

Brazil is actively encouraging competitors to Starlink, which controls nearly 50% of the satellite internet market in Latin America.

Earlier this year, Musk faced legal challenges in Brazil after refusing to comply with court orders to remove accounts allegedly promoting extremist content on X. This led to a temporary ban on the platform and fines for Starlink, further straining Musk’s relationship with Brazil’s left-wing government.

Tensions resurfaced recently when Brazil’s First Lady, Rosângela Lula da Silva, addressed Musk during an event on social media regulation.

Spacesail’s announcement aligns with concerns over waning U.S. influence in South America, often regarded as Washington’s “backyard.”

During his diplomatic tour, Xi Jinping attended the opening of a Chinese-built mega-port in Peru before traveling to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit. In Brasília, he and Lula upgraded their bilateral relationship to a “Sino-Brazilian community with a shared future”, emphasizing a fairer, more sustainable world.

The two leaders signed 37 agreements spanning agriculture, trade, infrastructure, technology, and industry. However, Brazil declined to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signaling confidence in securing Chinese investments without full membership.

Operating under the name Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, Spacesail plans to accelerate satellite deployment with a target of 15,000 LEO satellites by 2030. The company launched its first rounds of satellites in August and October this year, showcasing its rapid growth and potential to disrupt the market.

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China refuses to meet with U.S. Defence Secretary

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China has reportedly refused to meet with the United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus in Laos this week.

According to CNN, Austin sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, during the event as part of ongoing efforts to maintain military communication channels between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. However, a senior defence official traveling with Austin in Laos revealed that China rejected the offer, citing the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan as a key factor.

Three weeks ago, the United States approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which included the provision of advanced surface-to-air missiles—marking the first time Taiwan has received such systems. China condemned the sale and vowed to take “resolute countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty.

China’s decision to decline the meeting in Laos follows just days after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held what the U.S. described as a “cordial and constructive” meeting in San Francisco. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that the dialogue was “wide-ranging” and not focused on mediating between Beijing and the incoming U.S. administration.

Relations between the two nations have remained strained since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, which prompted China to sever multiple lines of communication with the United States, including those related to military and climate cooperation. While military-to-military communication had recently resumed following the Biden-Xi meeting, this latest refusal highlights continued tensions in U.S.-China relations.

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G20 calls for more aid for Gaza, two-state solution and peace in Ukraine

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The leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies issued a joint statement on Monday calling for a global deal to fight hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The joint statement was approved by members of the group, but not unanimously. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and reforms to the United Nations Security Council to allow it to expand beyond its current five permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting, which officially ends on Wednesday, experts doubted that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would be able to persuade the assembled leaders to reach an agreement at a meeting fraught with uncertainty over the new administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and heightened global tensions due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Argentina objected to some language in early drafts and was the only country not to endorse the entire document.

Still, the fact that a joint statement was issued was a ‘success’ for Lula.

The declaration condemned wars and called for peace, but did not condemn any crimes.

Gaza and Ukraine on the agenda

Referring to the ‘catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon’, the declaration stressed the need to increase humanitarian aid and better protect civilians.

“We reaffirm the Palestinian right to self-determination and reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of a two-state solution, with Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace,” it said.

Israeli attacks have so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza and more than 3,500 in Lebanon, according to local health officials.

Biden, who met with G20 leaders before the statement was issued, suggested that ‘Hamas is solely responsible for the war’ and called on other leaders to ‘increase pressure on Hamas’ to accept a ceasefire agreement.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles, allowing it to strike Russia, was also on the agenda for the meeting.

“The United States strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. I think everyone around this table should do the same,” Biden said at the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting, sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead. The G20 statement highlighted the ‘humanitarian suffering in Ukraine’ and called for peace, without mentioning Russia.

Billionaire tax and the fight against hunger

The statement called for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula also supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people worldwide, including about 100 in Latin America.

The declaration also included a clause promoting gender equality.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration but had problems with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Far-right President Javier Milei described the agenda as a ‘supranational programme of a socialist nature’. He also objected to calls to regulate hate speech on social media, which Milei said violated national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Much of the declaration focuses on Lula’s priority of eradicating hunger.

The Brazilian government stressed that Lula’s launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty on Monday was at least as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 countries had signed the plan, the Brazilian government said. The plan is also supported by organisations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Call for United Nations reform

Leaders have pledged to work for ‘transformative reform’ of the UN Security Council to ‘adapt it to the realities and demands of the 21st century, making it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable’.

Nearly eighty years after the founding of the United Nations, almost all countries agree that the Security Council needs to be expanded to reflect the world of the 21st century and to include more voices. The main dilemma and the biggest disagreement are how to do this. The G20 statement did not answer this question.

“We call for an expanded composition of the Security Council that improves the representation of underrepresented and under-represented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

Shortly before the UN summit in September, the United States announced its support for two new non-permanent seats for African countries and a first non-permanent seat for small island developing states. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – prefer each other’s proposals for permanent seats. The larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries, including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico, wants additional non-permanent seats for longer terms.

Xi backs calls for reform and equality

Speaking at the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the interests of the so-called global south, which includes emerging economies, and called for reform of international institutions and consensus on how to achieve parity in finance, trade, digital technology, and the environment.

The Chinese leader said artificial intelligence should not be ‘a game of rich countries and the rich’ and stressed the need to improve digital governance for inclusive economic globalization.

Xi reiterated host Brazil’s call for greater economic equality, including poverty eradication and reform of institutions such as global creditors for developing countries.

Xi called for reform of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism to return to normal operation “as soon as possible”. The mechanism remains in limbo as the U.S. has blocked appointments to the Appellate Body over concerns of judicial activism.

China had filed a dispute settlement case at the WTO after the European Union imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last month.

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