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‘Non-Western lingo was used to show that relations with China are considered independent of the West’

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The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Turkey, who met with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and then President Erdoğan in Ankara yesterday, can be seen as an opportunity to put relations back on track after they were strained by the domestic political agenda during the election period. In particular, Wang’s emphasis on the need to encourage more Chinese companies to invest and do business in Turkey seems to have pleased Ankara, which is seeking foreign investment in the midst of an economic crunch.

Indeed, the center of gravity of the meeting was the Central Corridor from Beijing to London, with Turkey at its center. While President Erdoğan expressed his desire to accelerate cooperation in the context of harmonizing the Belt and Road Initiative and the Central Corridor, Wang Yi, who is also a Politburo Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Director of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, stated that “they are ready to enhance mutual strategic trust and deepen cooperation with Turkey”.

The Chinese Foreign Minister emphasized that they support Turkey to play an important role in the regional and international arena and that they oppose any foreign interference in Turkey’s internal affairs.

Chinese media also highlighted President Erdoğan’s telling Wang that they “do not support NATO’s increasing activities in the Asia-Pacific” and emphasizing their commitment to the “one-China” principle.

The Uighur issue, seen as one of the most critical problems in the relations between the two countries, was glossed over with a sentence such as “The situation of Uighur Turks was also discussed on the occasion of the visit”, once again showing that the emphasis and statements made on the ‘Uighur issue’ during the election period were handled in the context of domestic politics.

‘Economy and trade dynamics are catalysts in Turkey-China relations’

Commenting on the visit to Harici, Istanbul Gedik University ASEAN Center Director Dr. Sibel Karabel pointed out the importance of timing conjuncturally and said the following:

“First of all, it is necessary to briefly evaluate the state of Turkey-China relations in the current conjuncture and the extent of economic and trade relations. The strategic partnership of the two countries should also be emphasized in this context. In 1971, diplomatic relations were established and as President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in the meeting, Turkey has been adhering to the ‘one China’ policy since then. In 2010, a strategic partnership was established. In 2015, Turkey officially joined the Belt and Road Initiative with a memorandum of understanding. And mutual commitments have been made to continuously increase the volume of bilateral trade and engagement between the two countries in the regional and global context.”

Stating that economic and commercial dynamics are “the catalyst” in Turkey-China relations, Karabel listed the following data: “When we evaluate the background of the Belt and Road Initiative, a target was set for the mutual trade volume between the two countries to reach 50 billion dollars as of 2015. We are talking about a trade volume of 33 billion dollars. On the other hand, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit against China, which unfortunately increases rapidly every year, especially between 2019 and 2022, is an important issue. In fact, in this context, the Belt and Road initiative is both an initiative that will highlight Turkey’s potential to become a center for transit trade and an initiative that has the caliber that can cure this problem. In other words, the investments made and planned to be made in the Belt and Road initiative have the potential to turn these trade dynamics between Turkey and China a little more in Turkey’s favor.”

Pointing out that Turkey is currently lagging behind this potential, Karabel summarizes the dynamics of the current commercial relationship as follows: “We know that the total investment of Chinese companies in the Belt and Road Initiative between 2013 and 2022 is approximately 1.4 trillion dollars. And in the same period, we see that the investments allocated to Turkey are 5.11 billion dollars. So our share in total investments is around 1.3 percent. And especially when we look at the trade balance between Turkey and China between 2019 and 2022, we see that imports have doubled. In other words, by nature, semi-finished goods are imported from China and processed and re-exported to the European Union countries. This is the dynamic of the trade relationship.”

Central Corridor emphasized

Sibel Karabel noted that the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor were particularly emphasized in the talks, and that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan drew attention to different energy fields, aviation fields, different sectors, and mentioned “improving the Belt and Road Initiative’s ability to respond to global threats and global challenges”.

Underlining the importance of Wang Yi’s emphasis on “developing strategic mutual trust and deepening cooperation mechanisms”, Karabel said, “Wang Yi even talked about a future-oriented and broad-targeted relationship dynamic in his meeting with President Erdoğan.”

‘A relationship within its own dynamics separate from the West’

On the other hand, drawing attention to President Erdoğan’s emphasis on the ‘One China policy’ and the fact that China’s development is not perceived as a threat by Turkey, Karabel stated that the expression “China’s development is perceived as a threat” is a Western jargon, and that it is a matter of how the West sees China: “The West perceive China’s development as a threat when evaluated from the realist paradigm in the context of the relative balance of power on the global level.”

In this context, Karabel said that Erdoğan’s statement that “they do not see China’s development as a threat” can also be considered as a “tacit reference” to NATO documents and commented as follows “In fact, there is a tacit emphasis here that Turkey’s relations with China are independent from the West and have their own dynamics. This is an important emphasis.”

The importance of the Central Corridor and Turkey increased after the Ukraine crisis

Karabel also touched upon the importance of the Ukraine issue in the bilateral relations and discussed this in the context of Turkey’s growing importance in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor:

“The Belt and Road Initiative is actually a very dynamic initiative and is being pursued under the direction of the National Planning Commission in China. It is not only a matter of combining the plans, projects and infrastructure lines that were declared in 2013 and have been rigidly and rigidly implemented since then, but also the articulation of previous mechanisms and projects into the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, the Central Corridor, where Turkey is located, is actually more prominent in the context of Ukraine. As a matter of fact, one of the biggest trademarks of the Central Corridor is that it is more advantageous than the Northern Corridor and the Southern Corridor. On the trade route from China to Europe, it has a cost advantage because it stops at fewer countries. There is also a very serious saving in time. It significantly reduces the number of days of transportation. In fact, before Ukraine, the route that China tended to use more was the Northern route. Now there are more countries on the Southern route. There are countries subject to sanctions etc. So now, after the Ukraine incident, the importance of the Middle Corridor has increased a bit more for China.”

The course of relations with the US, EU and China reflects the new era of Turkish foreign policy

On the other hand, evaluating the visit together with the NATO summit, Karabel points out that events and sectors are intertwined with each other and that this situation reflects the new era of Turkish foreign policy:

“At the NATO summit, the F-16s came to the fore, especially in the Swedish issue, and on the other hand, Turkey’s integration with the European Union and the European Union membership negotiation process were brought back to the agenda. The revival of Turkey’s full membership negotiations with the EU is a step towards revitalizing the almost frozen relationship. Turkey’s relations with the European Union do not only consist of membership negotiations. That is an important part, but there are also acute issues. For example, the Customs Union, modernization of the Customs Union negotiations, visa liberalization. In fact, there are a number of acute mini-sectoral issues. Therefore, on the one hand, there is an effort to revitalize these, and on the other hand, there is an effort to carry out relations with the United States in a way to develop relations on a more common ground, such as the F-16 issue.

On the other hand, as a result of the conjunctural developments in relations with China and Asia, we observe that Turkey’s leverage is actually increasing, especially in issues such as being an epicenter of transportation and turning this structural trade balance in its relations with China more in its favor. These are indeed conjunctural and historical opportunities, important opportunities.”

DIPLOMACY

EU, Mercosur aim to finalize trade deal by early December

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The European Commission and Mercosur countries are working to complete negotiations on a long-anticipated trade deal by early December, sources familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.

Farmers are expected to rally against the deal in Brussels on Wednesday, with additional protests in France later in the week.

The upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro was initially seen as the ideal opportunity to finalize the agreement, which has been under negotiation for nearly 25 years.

“All the cards are on the table,” said one person familiar with the EU-Mercosur talks. “They want to ensure a near-finalized deal, so Ursula [von der Leyen] doesn’t make the trip in vain.” However, the signing of the agreement might be delayed over concerns that China could overshadow the summit.

A European Commission official confirmed that face-to-face talks are scheduled for the week of November 25 in Brazil to resolve any outstanding issues. While the official refrained from specifying a completion date, they emphasized that the Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia—are pushing to sign the agreement promptly.

Uruguay is set to host the Mercosur summit from December 2–4, with Argentina, under newly elected Javier Milei, assuming the bloc’s presidency.

China concerns accelerate EU-Mercosur deal timeline

This “cows-for-cars” trade deal would eliminate trade barriers and establish a common market encompassing around 800 million people, representing 20% of global GDP. For European countries, particularly Germany, this agreement is viewed as overdue, especially given China’s expanding economic footprint in South America, where European firms are increasingly being sidelined.

“If we don’t reach a trade agreement with [Mercosur], China will inevitably fill the void,” remarked Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign minister, on Tuesday. Citing data, she added that Chinese investment in Latin America surged 34-fold between 2020 and 2022.

Those familiar with the negotiations indicated that certain issues remain unresolved, including public procurement regulations, environmental provisions, and the legal structure of the agreement.

Mercosur nations are particularly keen on securing more flexibility from the EU and additional time for local firms to compete with European counterparts. Brazil has also expressed a desire to protect its domestic automotive industry from EU imports, especially electric vehicles.

France’s reluctance and Macron’s challenges

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas recently stated to POLITICO that Mercosur countries are eager to finalize the deal before the Mercosur summit. However, Primas remains skeptical that the agreement will enable the EU to effectively counter China’s influence in Latin America.

Amid concerns over a potential surge in agricultural imports, France successfully blocked the Mercosur negotiations in January, just as they were nearing completion. This time, however, President Emmanuel Macron faces a tougher challenge, especially after recent electoral setbacks in the European Parliament and National Assembly.

In a recent letter published in Le Monde, over 600 French MPs from both parliamentary chambers urged von der Leyen not to proceed with the deal, citing unmet democratic, economic, environmental, and social standards for an agreement with Mercosur.

Paris falls short of blocking coalition

Despite recent efforts to secure opposition, Paris is unlikely to gather the qualified minority—representing at least 35% of the EU population—needed to block the deal when it comes to a vote among EU member states.

France has also launched a diplomatic campaign to persuade other EU nations to oppose the agreement. However, two diplomats with direct knowledge report that Italy has not been swayed.

Italy remains cautious in supporting the deal, wary of the potential for political fallout like that seen in France.

‘France’s opposition is symbolic; the battle is lost’

Over the weekend, Macron traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to visit Buenos Aires on November 20.

Although French ministers have vehemently opposed the deal and increased efforts to build a blocking minority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has kept a low profile. Barnier is expected to meet with von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels today (November 13) and will likely address the Mercosur agreement, which he opposes in its current form.

Critics argue that France’s resistance is mostly symbolic, and that Paris has already lost this battle.

For years, France has insisted on incorporating the Paris Agreement and enacting legally binding deforestation commitments as part of the Mercosur deal. In response, the European Commission has indicated its intent to support French demands in the final phase of negotiations, although Mercosur countries have repeatedly signaled their resistance to any form of sanctions.

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Japan, UK to launch bilateral economic dialogue ahead of potential Trump tariffs

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Japan and the UK are set to initiate an economic version of the “two plus two” dialogue—a regular meeting between foreign and trade ministers—due to rising concerns about possible tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, are scheduled to meet in Rio de Janeiro during the upcoming G20 Summit on Monday, November 18. According to officials from both governments, the goal is to establish a bilateral economic dialogue.

This development follows Trump’s recent election victory and his anticipated return to the White House in January. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other nations, including Japan and the UK.

The Japan-UK economic dialogue aims to strengthen cooperation in upholding the international economic order, including principles of free trade.

Topics at the meeting will cover a wide range of strategic and geopolitical issues. Both partners are expected to explore ways to initiate a trade dialogue with the U.S. to prevent a potential tariff hike. Sources indicate that countermeasures may also be on the table if U.S. import tariffs do increase.

In 2023, 20% of Japan’s exports and 15% of the UK’s exports were destined for the U.S., underscoring the potential economic impact of increased tariffs.

Additionally, the UK hopes that a strengthened partnership with Japan can help offset its reduced influence since leaving the European Union (EU) in 2020.

During the previous Trump administration, the EU (of which the UK was then a member) imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and motorcycles in response to Washington’s high import duties.

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Azerbaijan plans to boost oil and gas production as it hosts COP29

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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. As the host nation, Azerbaijan is also looking to expand its fossil fuel production, positioning itself at the intersection of climate policy and energy expansion.

According to the Financial Times, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) is set to increase production of new fossil fuel sources during the COP29 summit. The summit, a key gathering on global climate change, underscores a paradox for Azerbaijan: pledging climate action while pursuing expanded oil and gas output.

A report by campaign group Global Witness, which analyzed data from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, estimates that 44% of SOCAR’s production will be new oil and gas by 2050—the second-highest proportion among national oil companies globally. This report examined production projections based on both developed and undeveloped fields as well as undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new long-term oil and gas projects conflict with the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the target set by the Paris Agreement. This expansion aligns Azerbaijan with Europe’s aim to diversify energy sources, especially given the EU’s push to replace Russian gas following the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, SOCAR has increased production in recent years as Europe seeks to replace Russian natural gas with resources from other nations, including Azerbaijan. This has drawn criticism, particularly as Azerbaijan—through Muhtar Babayev, COP29 President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources—continues to call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

At COP28 last year in Dubai, almost 200 nations committed to phasing out fossil fuels by mid-century. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has signed multiple oil and gas deals since securing COP29 hosting rights, including SOCAR’s first international investment in upstream oil and gas—a $468 million stake in UAE gas projects.

“Azerbaijan is Europe’s strategic supplier of natural gas and is expanding capacity to meet European energy demands after the 2022 supply disruptions,” a COP29 spokesperson stated. Additionally, Azerbaijan is “expanding its renewable energy exports to serve the region and European markets,” he added. SOCAR did not respond to requests for comment.

Azerbaijan’s COP presidency has sparked criticism, echoing concerns raised during the UAE’s COP28 role. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN climate panel, expressed disappointment: “It is deeply disturbing that they can’t even seem to draw a ‘sanitary cordon’ around the COP presidency to prevent fossil fuel interests from undermining its purpose.”

Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard—attending COP29—remarked that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy also includes renewable energy initiatives, with Ørsted, a prominent wind energy company, present at the summit. However, European diplomats told the Financial Times that Azerbaijani officials have raised gas deal discussions alongside climate negotiations, mainly in relation to replacing Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine, with this contract ending soon.

According to Bloomberg, companies in Hungary and Slovakia are finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to substitute gas from the Ukrainian pipeline. Energy analysts have cautioned that this agreement could mask continued Russian gas flows. Additionally, a recent report from Chatham House highlighted Azerbaijan’s strategy to secure long-term European gas supply agreements.

“By positioning itself at the heart of the multilateral climate process, the Azerbaijani government may seek to shape the global energy transition dialogue to ensure its oil and gas reserves remain profitable as long as possible,” the report suggests.

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