Erdogan’s statements caused a storm in Greece. The reason for the unrest is that the dispute, which previously focused on the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, extends directly to mainland Greece and the ability to “hit” outside the NATO umbrella, that is, the existence of ‘Tayfun’ (Typhoon).

The ongoing strategic problems between Türkiye and Greece are growing away from context by verbal quarrels. While these quarrels occasionally cause tension to escalate, the actual situation, which is the main reason for the debate, continues to function in the area. President Tayyip Erdogan’s warning to Athens over Tayfun missiles was handled through its bitterness rather than the actual situation that caused that warning, and it resonated in the Atlantic capitals only through its dosage.

Erdogan’s ‘Tayfun’ statement

While President Erdogan was explaining Türkiye’s advances in the defense industry at a youth meeting in Samsun, he brought the issue to Tayfun, Türkiye’s first ‘short-range ballistic missile’ that the public was aware of when it was test-fired in October: “…Now we have started to make our own missiles. Of course, this production frightens the Greek. When you say ‘Tayfun’ (Typhoon), the Greek is scared. They (Greece) say it will hit Athens. Of course, it will hit. If you try to buy something (to arm) from here and there, from America to the islands, a country like Türkiye will not be a bystander. It has to do something.”

Why did it cause unrest?

Erdogan’s statements were widely debated in Greece. The dominant view in the press is that the rhetoric in the statement was the most aggressive so far. The issue was addressed by the determinations of whether Greece was within the range of Tayfun. The reason for this tension is that the dispute, which previously focused on the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, extends directly to mainland Greece. In other words, President Erdogan, by referring to the land intervention earlier, said “We can come suddenly one night” for the islands whose sovereignty, which are miles away from the mainland of Greece, is controversial or should be disarmed according to international agreements. This time, Erdogan’s statement directly targeted Greece. Almost all the country’s newspapers used the same headline: “If they don’t stand still, we’ll shoot.” One of the reasons why President Erdogan’s statement created indignation different from his previous statements is the opportunity and ability to “shoot” outside the NATO umbrella, that is, the existence of Tayfun.

‘North Korea’ analogy

The response to President Erdogan’s remarks was given with “North Korea” analogy. Greece’s Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said Erdogan’s remarks were “unacceptable”, with reference to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (KDHC), which is not internationally recognized and frequently finds itself on the agenda by missile attempts, he said, “There is and should be no place for North Korean attitudes in the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO).”

The U.S. deems the remarks provocative

Erdogan’s statements also received comment from the United States, which is at the center of the Ankara-Athens tensions with its military buildup in Greece. At a daily press conference, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price answered a question about President Erdogan’s remarks: “Well, look, we regret this escalation of provocative statements. It is especially regrettable at a time when unity and cooperation is needed most among our own NATO Allies. We urge all our allies to avoid threats and provocative rhetoric. All that an escalation of rhetoric will do is to raise tensions and to distract us from the unity of purpose, the unity of purpose that we need to confront any number of challenges, not the least of which, of course, is the threat that the Alliance potentially faces from Russia.”

The truth that is overshadowed by the quarrels

The bitter causes of the tension between Greece and Türkiye seem to be losing their importance in all the “grumbling”. The disputes between the two countries fall into below categories:

• Islands, islets, and rocks in Aegean sovereignty disputes
• Military buildup on the Aegean islands, which were given to Greece provided that these islands are demilitarized
• Airspace dispute largely arising from the sovereignty debate on the islands
• Continental shelf and exclusive economic zone dispute arise from the island in Eastern Mediterranean
• A new crisis recently added to the above historical problems between the two countries: making Greece and the controversial islands a U.S. base.

In all these categories, it is possible to say that great progress has been made in favor of Athens outside the airspace: its sovereignty has opened some controversial islands to settlement, despite the high cost they have brought, and if not, it has erected their flag. According to international agreements, Greece has stacked weapons on the islands that need to be disarmed, and it continue to stack them. It managed to sign mutual EEZ treaties with many countries on the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean… Among these quarrels, we can say that “Greek ship has sailed.”

A contradiction…

On the other hand, the fact that the United States came into play as an “old ally” is another topic. “There are nine US bases right now. Against whom were they established? The answer they give is ‘against Russia.’ We don’t buy it, take no offense,” Erdogan had said about the U.S. bases in Greece. Erdogan has several statements implying that Athens is being used as a pawn and that the main “enemy” against Türkiye is the United States. So, is the AK Party government following policies in accordance with the definition of “main enemy”, it is controversial.

Of course, this does not mean that Türkiye has not done anything. The agreement signed with Libya in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Egyptian route, which was noticed and tried to be corrected, even though it was late, and the diplomatic initiatives before the United Nations are some of the important steps taken by Türkiye.

Greece’s success lies in its handling of the problem as an “East-West problem” since the beginning, rather than its diplomatic genius. Türkiye’s real confrontation with the problem, which has been kept waiting at the door of the Western camp for many years, is considered new in this sense. What Athens has succeeded in is demanding that the U.S. and the EU react to Türkiye in all matters, arguing that it is a “victim of Turkish aggression”. The success of Turkish officials in this regard should not be underestimated.

Tayfun effect

So, how can Türkiye eliminate both the steps taken by Greece in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean with the assurance of the Atlantic and the threats directed at itself through Greece?

It is true that the greatest guarantee of peace is deterrence. The first element of deterrence is undoubtedly military power. In this respect, Tayfun, Türkiye’s first short-range ballistic missile launched from Rize in its first attempt and reaching Sinop offshore in 456 seconds over the Black Sea, is a critical defense industry move beyond popular discussions.

The missile doubles the range of the most advanced missile Türkiye has ever produced. More importantly, it exceeds the 300 km range limit of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) to which Türkiye participated in 1997. The regime’s overt goal is to prevent a handful of US-led countries with the ability and capability to produce their own ballistic missiles from accessing this highly deterrent technology. Although the details of Tayfun’s production have not been shared with the public, according to the most probable result of this restriction, Türkiye can produce these deterrent missiles, which it cannot buy due to the agreement it is a party to, with its own means and capability.

It is not clear when Tayfun will enter the inventory, but after the release of the trial footage in mid-October, some media outlets, fed by the call to war, reported the footage by stating that “its range reaches Greece.” Greek press, which “outperform” Turkish media on the issue of publicity, kept the development on the agenda with the same topics for days.

Tayfun missile is a critical threshold for the Turkish defense industry, although its importance cannot be fully perceived due to its focus on Greece. There are very few countries in the world that can produce short-range missiles with their own means. Rather than using this technology, which is described as “deterrent”, it is important that it is included in the inventory of a country. Greece seems to be more aware of this issue than Türkiye.

Diplomatic attack

The second element of deterrence, which is as important as the first, is building regional-territorial alliances based on common interests. Taking more determined diplomatic steps for Egypt and Syria in the Eastern Mediterranean has become an indispensable necessity. Türkiye should find a way to break the surrounding circle for itself with fair economic agreements and social and cultural projects that pursue common interests with the countries of the region.

Today, unless there is a direct attack from the disputed islands, it is a remote possibility for Türkiye to bring up the military option. However, every position to be gained in the Eastern Mediterranean will weaken the hand of Greece in the Aegean. The maritime boundary delimitation agreement with Libya must also be quickly put on the agenda with Egypt. On the other hand, natural gas exploration efforts, which have been suspended for two years due to talks with Greece, should be brought up again, perhaps the first route could be Libya’s territorial waters. Of course, not to drag the TRNC, which is the biggest trump card in the Eastern Mediterranean, to the unsolvable processes of the United Nations again and to accelerate the concrete steps towards the recognition of the TRNC as an independent state will strengthen Türkiye’s hand and deterrence.