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What caused the global internet outage?

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Today’s (Friday 19 July) problems with Microsoft’s cloud services have gone down in history as one of the biggest IT outages ever, affecting countless businesses and individuals around the world.

According to the Financial Times (FT), it is yet another example of how a small technical change by a company unknown to many outside the IT industry can cause widespread havoc.

Companies are grappling with problems affecting computers, servers and other IT equipment running Microsoft Windows. Users of affected computers are experiencing a ‘blue screen of death’ indicating that Windows cannot load. They have seen it.

Microsoft blamed a buggy update from security software vendor CrowdStrike. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz said in a post on X that the cause of the problems was “a bug found in a single content update for Windows”.

Kurtz said PCs and servers running Apple’s MacOS and the open-source Linux operating system, which is widely used in Internet infrastructure, were not affected.

“This is not a security incident or a cyber attack. The problem has been identified, isolated and a fix has been issued,” the CrowdStrike CEO said.

CrowdStrike is one of the largest providers of ‘endpoint’ security software that protects the connections between computer networks and remote devices connected to corporate networks, from laptops, phones and servers to retail payment terminals and ATMs. Any of these devices running Windows could be affected by the bug.

Customers of Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform, much of which runs on Windows, have also reported problems. The IT outage has affected airlines, banks and publishers from the US and Europe to Australia, Japan and India.

This morning’s global IT outage is unprecedented in terms of the range and scale of systems affected,’ said Harjinder Lallie, a cyber security expert at the University of Warwick.

CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company founded in 2011 and based in Austin, Texas. Its Falcon software is designed to stop cyberattacks and includes a range of products that run on individual devices and are delivered via the cloud.

The company’s revenue rose by a third to $3.1 billion in its latest fiscal year, which ended in January, while net income narrowed to $90.6 million from a loss of $183.2 million a year earlier.

CrowdStrike says it is “the cloud security provider of choice for 62 of the Fortune 100”, with more than 29,000 companies using its products.

The Nasdaq-listed company joined the S&P 500 last month.

CrowdStrike’s shares had more than doubled over the past year before Friday’s outage, giving the company a market capitalisation of $83.5 billion. However, the shares fell sharply before the Nasdaq opened in New York on Friday.

While CrowdStrike says a ‘fix is in place’, it is unclear how long it will take to roll out to the large number of affected customers and all employee devices.

Vasileios Karagiannopoulos, a cybersecurity researcher at the University of Portsmouth, said the problems “could take days, if not weeks, to resolve”.

Karagianopoulos added that the problems were ‘so global and so widespread across systems that IT support may be sparse due to demand’.

Cybersecurity researcher Kevin Beaumont said in social media posts that CrowdStrike customers were going through an ‘incredibly painful’ process to resolve the issue.

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Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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