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Afghanistan-Iran and its water rights

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A dam near completion on the Helmand River in Afghanistan has become the center of disagreement between Afghanistan and Iran as both the neighbors’ dispute over water rights.

Afghanistan is considered as a self-sufficient water country but the irregularity and lack of structure has made it one of the lowest levels of water storage capacity in the world. There is estimation of at least 75 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water annually, where much of it is coming from big river basins such as the Amu, Helmand, Harirud-Murghab and Kabul. Mainly, these waters flow to the neighboring countries including Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Afghanistan has failed to bring its water under control in the last 20 years or at least make a good deal with its neighbor over it. There was some “water strategy” on the paper to regularize the inflow of water, but apparently it was in vain. This came when the Afghan farmers moved to the urban centers to secure their livelihoods due to lack of water irrigation and insufficient water that badly affected their agricultural output.

At the same time, Afghanistan becomes an electricity-importer state while some of its water from major rivers, including Helmand River, flows to the neighboring countries. Afghanistan had decided to supervise these waters and tried to build dams to generate electricity.

In that purpose, the Afghan government has started to invest in construction of new dams in the Helmand River, a tributary considered the lifeline of water in Afghanistan, and its basin covers approximately 49pc of the surface area of the country.

But apparently Iran is not happy with the process and after failing to reach any consensus on the area of diplomacy, now it has tried to threaten the Afghan government to reopen the flow of water.

Iran warns Afghanistan over water rights

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has openly called on the Afghan leaders not to violate water rights of the Iranian people and said his government is determined to defend this right.

Raisi warned the Taliban not to violate water rights of the people of Sistan and Baluchistan over their shared Helmand River, and called on the Taliban to take his world “seriously”.

Raisi also said that the Taliban should allow Iranian hydrologists to check the water levels of the river.

President Ebrahim Raisi during the inauguration ceremony of a project to supply water from the Gulf of Oman Iran’s eastern cities on May 18, 2023.

This is not the stop point as his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian also came up with the same warning and said Iran will use “pressure as a tool,” to make the Taliban agree to allow its water from the Helmand River to flow inside Iran.

Amirabdollahian raised the water issue during his trip to southeastern border provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, where he is scheduled to follow up on the case of Iran’s water rights, which has not become a center of a dispute with its neighbor Afghanistan.

Based on the 1973 treaty between Iran and Afghanistan, Amirabdollahian said that the people of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan have “a natural right” to benefit from the water that flows into the country from Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the Iranian Space Agency said satellite images showed that the Afghan government prevented water from reaching the Iranian side of the border in some places by creating numerous dams and diverting the flow of water.

The agency said it was ready to submit the images, captured by the Iranian-made Khayyam satellite, to the Foreign Ministry.

Afghan-Iran FMs spoke on phone

Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Mawlavi Amir Khan Muttaqi held a telephonic conversation with Iranian counterpart Amirabdullahian, where the two sides discussed the expansion of cooperation in different sectors including trade, electricity, railway, common border, water and release of Afghan prisoners in Iran.

During the talk, Muttaqi expressed his satisfaction with the recent visit of the Afghanistan trade delegation headed by the country’s minister of commerce and industry to Iran, and stressed that the two sides should intensify work to implement the Khaf-Herat railway project.

However, Muttaqi said that due to a drop in rainfall in the western parts of Afghanistan, the country has seen a significant drop in the amount of water in the Helmand River.

Taliban Spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid also said that due to severe drought, the water levels have dropped but said Kabul is “committed” to fulfill its obligation in the water treaty.

Inappropriate statements harm ties  

At the same time, Mujahid warned Iran over “inappropriate statements”, saying such behavior could harm ties between the two countries and should not be repeated.

Iranian officials have always stressed the importance of the implementation of the 1973 Helmand River treaty between Iran and Afghanistan, but Kabul says that drought and climate change has significantly reduced the level of water. At the same time Iran has been suffering from drought for some 30 years, but has worsened over the past decade, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization.  The Iran Meteorological Organization says that an estimated 97pc of the country now faces some level of drought.

Taliban Spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said the Islamic Emirate is committed to the water treaty of Helmand signed in 1973 between Afghanistan and Iran.

To overcome the drought, Iran has called on the Taliban to open the gates of the Kajaki,” a major hydroelectric power dam in Afghanistan on the river’s path.

However, the dam has been dried up due to severe drought, but the Iranian authorities doubt Taliban’s statement and say they need to go and see from near.

“Until Iran’s technical experts are not allowed to visit the water flow and upstream of Hirmand according to the Hirmand Treaty, especially Article 5 of Protocol No. 1 of that treaty, any comments regarding the reduction in Hirmand water are not acceptable,” Iranian media Mehr reporting citing the country’s foreign ministry’s statement.

Diverting the river’s water flow and non-cooperation on the part of Afghan officials cannot be justified by making political statements, the statement reads.

Still friendly negotiations on table

Iran said that so far negotiations and talks have been held in a friendly atmosphere and by adhering to the principle of good neighborliness, and expects that such talks should continue to resolve any kind of issues as other options are also on the table.

The statement furthered that Iran has the right to use other options and reserves to take necessary actions to defend from its water interest, but called on Afghanistan to fulfill its responsibility based on the agreement.

Responding to the statement, Taliban said that the water agreement between Afghanistan and Iran was signed half a century ago in 1973 and is still valid.

“The Islamic Emirate is committed to implementing its obligations,” Taliban foreign ministry said in a statement, and accused the Iranian side of lacking information on current water level and circumstances in the region.

Taliban said that Iranian officials should first complete their information about Helmand water and then express their demand with appropriate words.

Taliban once again retreated that “inappropriate” statements can harm the political relations between the two neighboring countries which is not in the interest of each side.

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Pentagon plans covert spy ring for economic war on China, report says

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The US Department of War (Pentagon) is reportedly planning to establish an extensive network of deep-cover agents to wage economic warfare against China and other adversaries of the US.

According to a report by The Washington Post citing six sources familiar with the initiative, the plan has not yet been put into effect. The newspaper reported that the initiative remains at the planning stage. The Pentagon, however, denies that any such initiative exists.

The report said the operatives would pose as entrepreneurs or private sector employees while concealing their ties to the US government. The network’s mission would be to gather economic intelligence and counter China.

The programme is led by Tom Rakusa, who spent 39 years at the CIA. Rakusa serves as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg.

The proposed spy network is seen as part of a broader policy by the Donald Trump administration to sharpen economic competition with other countries.

The US is already resorting to tariffs, export controls, and investment in strategic sectors, alongside expanding its economic intelligence gathering.

According to The Washington Post, the new initiative demonstrates the Pentagon’s growing influence under the Trump administration. The department is currently seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.

Trade war flares up again with Trump’s return to the White House

The trade friction between the US and China flared up again following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In April 2025, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%.

In May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described China as the primary geopolitical challenge facing Washington. Rubio said that to avoid war, the two sides needed to manage their conflict of interests.

In July, Chinese expert Zheng Yongnian did not simply warn that underestimating the US could prove to be a “fatal mistake”; he stated it explicitly.

According to Zheng’s assessment, the US maintains its primacy through the role of the dollar, its military superiority, and its technological advantages.

Even so, the two sides agreed in June to declare a truce and lower tariffs. In autumn 2026, the US and China extended their trade truce until 10 January 2027.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would give the parties more time to discuss economic issues.

Trade deals do not eliminate the strategic contradictions between the two countries. Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar likened the race between the two nations for commercial, technological, and geopolitical influence to the 19th-century “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires.

Foroohar cited China’s standing in shipbuilding and commercial maritime transport, as well as its expanding footprint in overseas ports, among its key advantages.

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Japan plans curbs on short-term home sales to cool urban prices

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Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to restrict short-term property trading to rein in surging home prices in major urban centres, particularly Tokyo.

Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party aims to make support for working households a core priority ahead of local elections scheduled for April next year.

The LDP’s research commission on housing and land policy met on Wednesday to discuss the issue.

According to a report by the Nikkei Asia newspaper, Commission Chair and LDP lawmaker Midori Matsushima said at the opening of the meeting: “Prices of newly built condominiums across Tokyo’s 23 wards have doubled over the past decade. We must work on measures ensuring that people who wish to live in these homes can actually afford to buy them.”

Homeownership in the capital has become virtually unattainable for broad segments of the population. According to data from the Real Estate Economic Institute, the average sale price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose %18.5 in fiscal 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching 137.84 million yen (around $872,000).

Meanwhile, statistics from the Ministry of Labour show that the average annual income of a full-time worker in the capital remained at 6.78 million yen in fiscal 2025. This widening gap between incomes and residential property prices is directly shaping political priorities.

During its campaign for the House of Representatives election in February, the LDP pledged to curb speculative transactions across metropolitan Tokyo and other regions. Earlier this month, a party project team focused on policies concerning foreign nationals also submitted a recommendation urging the government to introduce immediate tax measures against rising home prices.

Under current legislation, profits realized from properties sold within five years of acquisition are classified as “short-term capital gains”. These returns face a tax rate approaching %40, including income tax and local inhabitant tax.

Although this rate is twice the approximately %20 levied as “long-term capital gains” tax on properties held for more than five years, several party members argue it remains insufficient to deter speculation. Calls to tighten the framework may be considered as part of the annual tax reform package to be drafted in December alongside the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.

The ruling bloc wants to present concrete housing pledges to voters heading to the polls in April across numerous urban centres, including 22 of Tokyo’s wards where local assembly terms expire.

“We need to support families with children, who are typically at the stage of purchasing a home,” a senior LDP official said.

Opposition parties are also preparing alternative proposals that target not only prospective homebuyers, but also residents forced into the rental market by high property prices and now affected by escalating rents.

Tax steps take precedence over limits on foreign buyers

Several countries seeking answers to housing affordability pressures have imposed direct restrictions on foreign purchasers. In South Korea, real estate policies played a major part in the declining public approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung.

In August 2025, authorities in Seoul introduced an approval requirement for foreign nationals buying homes in the capital and adjacent areas, while also mandating that buyers reside in the properties for at least two years.

Canada and Australia have enacted temporary bans on foreign residential purchases, while Singapore levies a %60 additional stamp duty on foreign buyers.

The role of overseas investors in Japan’s property market also drew debate during the February election. However, restrictions aimed directly at foreign nationals are viewed as potentially conflicting with international trade and services agreements.

Consequently, rather than imposing restrictions based on the nationality of buyers, the government is discussing tax measures aimed at speculative real estate deals, such as rapid resales.

Fears that sharp market measures could shake regional banks

Concerns have also surfaced that aggressive steps to force down prices could harm the wider national economy.

A senior LDP tax official cautioned that a steep drop in land prices could weaken local financial institutions, warning: “We must consider the impact on regional banks.”

The real estate sector accounts for roughly %18 of total lending by Japanese banks. This proportion sits well above the %10 level recorded during Japan’s bubble economy of the mid-to-late 1980s.

At certain regional banks, property lending accounts for nearly half of total loan portfolios.

According to March 2025 data from the Financial Services Agency, approximately one-quarter of all loans extended by regional banks to the real estate sector are concentrated directly in Tokyo’s five central wards.

Buoyant asset valuations, supported in part by rising stock indices, have underpinned strong public approval for the Takaichi administration. Observers note that property interventions designed to cool the market could drag down equity prices and weaken the government’s standing.

A senior official on the LDP research commission stressed that decision-makers must act with caution regarding the scope and timing of any measures intended to bring price increases under control.

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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