According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), analysts warn that discounted imports from China will increase the economic dangers to Europe from Donald Trump’s tariffs, prompting Brussels to prepare measures to protect itself from a wave of cheap goods from Asia.

The direct impact of the US President’s 20% tax on EU products has triggered fears about the outlook for bloc manufacturers, who are already struggling due to US taxes on automobiles and steel.

However, the severity of the tariffs Trump has imposed on economies such as China and Vietnam means that Brussels is on alert against the possibility of Asian-origin products such as electrical goods and machine tools being directed to its own markets.

Officials said the European Commission is preparing new emergency tariffs to respond to this and is increasing surveillance of import flows.

“The sudden trade shock to Asia will likely spill over to Europe as well,” said Robin Winkler, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist for Germany.

Chinese manufacturers will try to sell more of their products in Europe and elsewhere because they face “a tough tariff wall in the US.”

A senior EU diplomat said, “We will have to take protection measures for more of our sectors. We are very concerned that this will be another point of tension with China. I don’t think they will change their models of exporting excess capacity.”

The diplomat added that the EU already applies tariffs of up to 35% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and Brussels may have to apply “much higher” tariffs on other products.

The EU is among the economies subject to a higher tax than the 10% basic tariff that the White House applies to all partners except Canada and Mexico, but China has been hit even harder.

While some commentators have noted that the tariffs could bring the EU and China closer together, Brussels has been on edge for months over the risk that Chinese manufacturers will try to increase their market share through discounts in the face of US obstacles.

Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that high taxes on Asian countries could lead these countries to direct their extra capacity to Europe, which could have “major consequences” for continental industries.

The EU had to struggle with similar pressures during Trump’s first term. Following Trump’s implementation of similar measures, Brussels imposed a 25% “safeguard” tariff on steel imports above a quota in 2018. The aim was to prevent exporters such as China from directing their products to the single market due to US barriers.

Officials say they are ready to take action again. A senior Commission official said, “We can close our markets due to an unexpected sudden influx of imports. We have been applying this to steel for some time and we will see if we need it for other sectors as well.”

However, previous experiences show how difficult it is to combat China’s subsidized production. According to the OECD, EU steel production shrank in 2024, while other countries continued to increase their production.

According to the OECD’s latest figures, global excess steel capacity, estimated at 602 million tons in 2024, is expected to reach 721 million tons in 2027, which is more than five times the EU’s steel production.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the world would be “largely harmed” by the US’s new tariffs, stating that the EU is ready to retaliate but will first try to negotiate a deal.

Trump announced a 20% tariff on the EU as part of “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s largest trading partners.

The US President has long accused the EU of “unfair trade practices.”

Leyen stated on Thursday, April 3, that the bloc is “ready to respond” to US tariffs but emphasized that she prefers to negotiate to “remove remaining obstacles to transatlantic trade.”

Speaking during a visit to Uzbekistan, Leyen said, “We have completed the first package of counter-measures in response to the tariffs on steel. We are now preparing for more counter-measures to protect our interests and businesses should negotiations fail.”

Brussels will impose taxes on up to €26 billion worth of US goods on April 12 in response to steel and aluminum tariffs. Retaliation has not yet occurred against the 25% tariff on automobile exports announced last week.

Extending an olive branch to Trump, Leyen acknowledged that some countries “unfairly benefit” from global trade rules. However, she warned that “resorting to tariffs as your first and last resort will not solve the problem,” adding that tariffs would “harm consumers around the world” and increase the costs of groceries, medicine, and transportation.

Leyen pledged that the EU would “defend” targeted sectors, including automobiles and steel, and protect its market from dumped goods forcibly removed from the US market.

The Commission President added, “We will also closely monitor what the indirect effects of these tariffs might be because we cannot absorb global overcapacities, nor can we accept that our markets are being dumped into. Europe has everything it needs to weather this storm. We are in this together. If you deal with one of us, you deal with all of us.”

Behind the scenes, however, leaders are lobbying to ensure their industries are protected from EU countermeasures. France is trying to block proposed EU measures against bourbon whiskey, while Ireland has requested dairy taxes be lowered.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, one of Trump’s allies in Europe, previously stated that tariffs are “not appropriate for either side” and that she would seek an agreement with the US to “avoid a trade war.”

Trump accused the EU of targeting the US with a 39% tariff rate, a figure the commission states is 1%. The US President based this figure on other factors, such as VAT reaching 27% in some member states and restrictions on the import of chlorine-washed chicken and other agricultural products.

The White House is also targeting the bloc’s regulations and digital taxes on technology companies. In 2023, the EU exported €503 billion worth of goods to the US, yielding a surplus of €157 billion, but it had a deficit of €109 billion in services.

The EU may target US services by suspending certain intellectual property rights and excluding companies from public procurement contracts under the enforcement regulation. A step beyond this would be the first-time use of the “anti-coercion” instrument, but any measure will require the approval of a majority of member states.

According to plans drawn up by a coalition of Western countries, NATO could play a key role in assisting a proposed European military mission to guarantee a peace agreement in Ukraine.

The proposal, discussed in talks led by France and the United Kingdom, envisions using NATO’s command and control structures to deploy an “assurance force” in Ukraine, according to officials familiar with the plans who spoke to the Financial Times (FT).

According to the proposal, this force would also benefit from the alliance’s joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. Officials stated that the proposal is one of many options being discussed and could be modified before a final agreement.

NATO’s involvement is also seen by supporters of the “assurance force” as a way to indirectly involve the US in the effort and secure Washington’s tacit support.

US President Donald Trump has refused to be directly involved in any European-led mission, but the US’s military capabilities in Europe are an integral part of all NATO operations.

One of the officials said, “If we are going to deploy assets [to Ukraine] from dozens of countries, NATO is really the only [command and control] option we have available.”

The purpose of this force is to provide assurance of Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s security if a ceasefire with Russia is implemented and to deter Moscow from attacking again.

The “coalition” talks, led by Paris and London with the participation of leaders and ministers from about 30 countries, have repeatedly emphasized that some form of “emergency support” from the US is critical for any deployment. The US is not a member of the coalition.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also attended the leaders’ meetings and sent senior NATO officials to the group’s technical-level meetings. NATO’s headquarters in Brussels will also host the next meeting of the coalition defense ministers next week.

Another official said, “Politicians and diplomats don’t really know what it means to carry something like this out. You need soldiers from the beginning.”

NATO’s command and control structures and other assets can be used for non-NATO missions, including those carried out by the EU. However, this requires unanimous approval from the alliance members.

Some members of the coalition are hesitant to involve the military alliance in any final proposal, as Trump has stated that he does not want to be involved in any way in Ukraine after accepting a ceasefire.

Some countries, including Italy, have instead called for the UN to play a coordinating role in peacekeeping operations. Other countries, wary of Russian and Chinese vetoes in the UN Security Council, oppose this.