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Iran’s evolving relations with Taliban

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Since Amir Khan Muttaqi, Taliban’s Minister of Foreign Affairs has sarcastically told Iran that the number of executions in that country is more than the number of prisoners inside Afghanistan, the representative of Iran has increased meetings with the Taliban officials aimed at keeping the ties normal.

Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s ambassador in Kabul, in a meeting with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs of Taliban said that such statements should not harm the relations between the two sides. Recently, the Taliban and Iranian officials have openly criticized each other, and also, they had issues over water, triggering border clashes between the security forces of the two neighbors. Iran, which played a key role in the Taliban’s rise again to power, did not foresee facing such a situation.

This shows that the policy of being kind to the Taliban is not working and has harmed Iran’s position as an important actor in regional affairs. But Iran has no other way out and needs Taliban support for the long-term due to the continuation of several political issues with its other neighboring countries and in the Middle East. Iran’s interaction with the Taliban is much stronger than the past government which was recognized by the international community.

The Taliban took power on 15 August 2021 following the chaotic withdrawal of US troops resulting in the collapse of the republic system.

Iran put weight behind the Taliban  

At that time, Hassan Rouhani, the former president of Iran, during his meeting with the then Afghan president Hamid Karzai, openly spoke about occupation without respecting the honor of the host and neighborliness.

However, the situation is completely different today. Iran is fully on the side of Taliban, in spite of countless aid, Iran also handed over the Afghan embassy in Tehran to the Taliban and gave them Euro packages, still the country doesn’t want to see its ties broken or harm with the Taliban.

Muttaqi in a meeting with religious scholars in Kabul questioned the inclusivity of the government in Iran. “Do you have an inclusive government in your country,” Muttaqi responded to Iran’s demand for formation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan.

“Do you give your citizens’ their rights? There are not as many prisoners in our prisons as you execute. Thousands of people have disappeared in your country and no one can dare to ask where they are,” Muttaqi told Iran.

Immediately after this statement, ambassador Qomi, went to meet senior Taliban officials. In the past days, he met with Baradar and Muttaqi and asked them to soften their media statements towards Iran and expressed concern about the damage to the relations between the two sides.

Iran’s supreme called Taliban “reality” in Afghanistan

At least in the last one decade, the relations between Iran and the Taliban have been very close and extensive. It has been reported that Tehran had officially invited the Taliban to celebrate the anniversary of the “Islamic Revolution” even before the Taliban took over Afghanistan.

Two years ago, when the Taliban returned to power, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly welcomed the Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan. Although he did not directly name the Taliban, however, he welcomed it by referring to the “new reality” in Afghanistan, which is under the rule of the Taliban.

In addition to that, Iran kept its embassy in Kabul active after the return of the Taliban to power and has since supported the Taliban in important regional and international meetings. It seems that Iran has supported the Taliban during its war against the common enemy (US) and doesn’t want anything to spoil this relationship. This is another reason for Iran that is exercising immense caution in any issue related to the Taliban.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend

On the other hand, Iran and the Taliban have mutual and extensive interests in relation to al-Qaeda and the presence of this group in Afghanistan.

It has a great proverb that says that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” So now somehow the US is up to al-Qaeda and recently US drones killed the group’s leader in downtown Kabul. However, the Taliban rejected the news and said an investigation is underway and blamed the US for violating the airspace of Afghanistan.

The Taliban so far did not confirm the man killed was al-Qaeda’s leader. Despite the disappointment and failure of the Taliban to keep good ties with Iran, politics in Tehran define this country’s relationship with the Taliban and al-Qaeda as a tactic to reduce the risk of other terrorist groups against Iran.

On the other hand, these three sides have a common goal towards the US. Iran expects to increase threats against the US by helping al-Qaeda and Taliban and meanwhile, Tehran tries to reduce Islamic State (IS) threats against its security, because al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq has also cooperated with Iran’s overseas forces against IS.

Islamic State is a serious threat in region

Now that IS is a serious threat in the region, especially for Iran, the security and intelligence centers of the IRGC will do their best to fight against this group outside the borders of Iran.

At the moment, Tehran thinks that by having good ties with the Taliban, it can stop the threats of IS, and al-Qaeda has created a common denominator and a common language for the larger goals of uniting opposing Islamic ideologies against the US.

Enmity with US and IS will force Iran to pay more attention in its ties with the Taliban for a long time and will buy all the taunts of the Taliban with its heart and soul until the creation of an alternative structure in Afghanistan.

On the other side, the Taliban, with the illusion of victory and fearing Iran from expanding its relations with US and IS, get more concessions from Tehran and force this country not to support the military opponents of the Taliban in Afghanistan and reject the armed resistance against this group.

Last year, Qomi considered the resistance against the Taliban to be an US project. He said that America is “organizing a group under the title of Resistance Front, which is a lie”. He even denied the existence of resistance against the Taliban.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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