Some areas of Barmal district in Afghanistan’s Paktika province were targeted by the airstrikes of the Pakistan Army at a time when Mohammad Sadiq Khan, the country’s newly appointed representative for Afghanistan, was engaged in highly diplomatic and intensive talks with some high-ranking Taliban officials in the capital city, Kabul.
The Taliban claimed that more than 46 civilians (women and children) were killed as a result of this attack and denied Pakistan’s claim that the casualties were fighters of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Talian said that the majority of the casualties are civilians and Waziristan immigrants who lived in the areas in the last 10 years.
The Taliban have called this attack a clear violation of Afghan territory and have spoken of severe revenge. Also, the Taliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the charge d’affaires of the Pakistani Embassy in Kabul and handed him a letter with objectionable content.
In connection with this attack and its possible consequences, a few points can be speculated.
First,
The world’s silence regarding Pakistan’s daily light attack on Afghanistan is surprising. Not any of the countries in the world, not even the United Nations mentioned anything about the attack. Perhaps the world has realized that Pakistan has taken the risk of attacking Afghanistan not out of drunkenness but out of urgency and with the intention of suppressing TTP.
When the world has reached this understanding, the correctness of the Taliban’s claim of sheltering the TTP will become clearer than before, which will be to the detriment of this group. Pakistan’s weight in international relations can also be understood from the world’s silence, especially when the conflict in Afghanistan is in the middle.
On the other hand, it can also be understood that the Taliban are not important enough in the eyes of the world that an open violation of their sovereign territory would offend anyone, or a country and provoke a reaction. Of course, the loss of statelessness can also be strongly felt. If Afghanistan had a strong and legitimate government, maybe Pakistan would not have been so bold. In that case, if Pakistan had attacked, it would definitely have faced the overwhelming reaction of the countries.
Second,
The well-known movements against the Taliban, like the countries of the world and the United Nations, have given themselves to heavy silence. Indeed, some people have condemned, exactly those who do not want anything from the Taliban, except the reopening of girls’ schools, regardless of the quality of the content of the educational curriculum.
For example, the National Assembly for the Salvation of Afghanistan, the National Resistance Front, the Freedom Front, the Supreme Council of the National Resistance for Salvation, etc., are the current anti-Taliban movements that have avoided condemning the attack so far.
These groups know very well that TTP is walking under the shadow of Afghan Taliban and Pakistan’s concern is understandable in their opinion. Not only that, but they may also be happy with Pakistan’s attack, because while the relationship between Islamabad and the Taliban is strained, the problem of terrorists taking shelter in Afghanistan becomes more apparent, which will be to the detriment of the Kabul regime.
If the tension between Pakistan and the Taliban increases, the former may also establish contact with the opposing current groups, and the reaction to the recent attack can close the door of communication. Even the criticisms of the citizens are more towards the Taliban than towards Pakistan. It is not known how this group understands the silence of the world and the minimal reactions of its opposing forces and citizens.
Third,
Until now, Pakistan has tried to convince the Afghan Taliban to curb the TTP by resorting to dialogue, but it has not succeeded. The re-appointment of Sadiq Khan has no meaning except Islamabad giving importance to negotiations. Now, the attack on Paktika showed that the Pakistani army likes to avoid resorting to force in parallel with negotiations – what is not known is whether Islamabad will achieve its goal or not.
More importantly, by doing this, Pakistan showed that the Afghan Taliban, with the dismissal of Asif Durrani, the re-appointment of Sadiq Khan and his dispatch to Kabul, should not be trapped in the illusion that Islamabad is bound to sit around the negotiating table. To say that Sadiq Khan was not aware of the quality of the “souvenirs” he presented to the Taliban may not be true. Because the current Pakistani civilians and military have reached a consensus to curb TTP.
However, what is clear is Pakistan’s avoidance of a “decisive war” with the Taliban. For now, Islamabad’s preference is to launch sporadic airstrikes and at the same time keep the door open to dialogue. That’s it. Of course, the Taliban also hate to enter the war and instead, they seek to establish a government and extend the life of their rule, not to get involved with Pakistan, which was and is their serious supporter.
Fourth,
It should also be said about the possible response of the Taliban. Although this group has spoken of revenge, the fulfillment of the promise, if not impossible, is not very likely. The fact is that the Taliban do not have the ability to retaliate against Pakistan’s attack.
If they are determined to attack, this is different from border conflicts, which are largely unorganized. In this case, the next reaction will be followed by Islamabad, and again, not this country, but the Taliban will suffer. We all remember Pakistan’s immediate response to Iran’s missile attack. That act of Pakistan showed that it is no joke in defending its territory. It is unlikely that the Taliban did not understand this point.
Apart from that, the Taliban cannot be considered as Iran or Israel if the people of the world are watching the response of this group. As the attack on Taliban territory has not been reacted to, the silence of this group will not be accompanied by sarcasm but with the silence of the world.
If we pay close attention, Pakistan’s open attack reminds viewers, readers and listeners of Israel’s air attack on post-Assad Syrian territory. Therefore, as the new rulers of Damascus have been silent, the new rulers of Kabul will do the same.
But one factor can provoke the Taliban – Zalmay Khalilzad’s statements (Forer US peace envoy). He has claimed on his X page that the Taliban will probably respond. Khalilzad’s view towards Pakistan is very unfavorable. For this reason, a few days before the US sanctioned its missile program, it not only supported, but also demanded more sanctions. He is also unhappy with the imprisonment of Imran Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House may not benefit Pakistan, because his view is not favorable towards this country. Therefore, Khalilzad may encourage parts of the Taliban to attack.
There are already reports doing rounds in the media that Taliban and Pakistani border troops on Friday engaged in intense clashes in Dand-e-Patan district of Afghanistan’s Paktia province.
Local sources said that the clashes lasted for several hours, with both sides exchanging heavy fire. The Taliban and Pakistani officials did not comment on the incident so far. There is also no immediate report on the casualties.