According to claims, Türkiye and Israel are negotiating a mechanism to prevent direct conflict in Syria amid rising tensions. It is alleged that the parties are considering establishing a communication line.

Türkiye and Israel, seeking to increase their influence in Syria after the end of the Bashar al-Assad administration, are reportedly in contact to establish a de-confliction line to prevent mutual misunderstandings or direct conflict. According to Western officials speaking to Middle East Eye, these talks gained momentum after Israel bombed the T4 airbase, where Türkiye wanted to deploy.

The report states that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes progress has been made on a de-confliction arrangement with Türkiye after the attacks, and that negotiations are ongoing. It was noted that Netanyahu is particularly insistent that no armed elements, including the Turkish military presence, be present in the southern regions of Syria.

Another source confirmed that direct contact was established between Ankara and Tel Aviv after the attacks on the T4 base, and that these contacts aimed to establish a de-confliction line. The source commented, “Immediately after the attacks, Turkish and Israeli officials said they did not want to clash with each other, using similar expressions. These statements seemed coordinated.”

It is suggested that Israel may remain silent or even accept the establishment of Turkish military bases in Hama and Palmyra, even if it uses harsh rhetoric in public. The same source argued that the US also favors reducing tensions in the region and therefore indirectly supports the process.

Sources speaking to Middle East Eye claimed that Netanyahu informed his counterparts that he had “limited time to attack the T4 base before Türkiye started to deploy militarily.” According to this, Netanyahu said that “after Türkiye enters, the base will be closed to Israeli operations.” The report stated, “The Turkish army being attacked by Israel, even by mistake, would carry the risk of triggering a major conflict. However, bringing air defense systems to the bases would also deter Israeli planes from operating in the region.”

Immediately after the air strikes, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused Ankara of trying to establish a “protectorate regime” in Syria. Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also said that he had “warned” Syrian President and HTŞ leader Abu Ahmed Shara about “enemy forces.”

Despite Israel’s harsh messages after the T4 attack, signals of softening were later given from both Türkiye and Israel. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a statement to Reuters that Türkiye has no intention of direct military conflict with Israel. Similar statements came from senior Israeli officials as well.

Netanyahu, in a meeting with US President Donald Trump, stated that Israel does not want conflict with Türkiye on Syrian territory and that they discussed steps to eliminate this risk with Trump. Netanyahu pointed to Trump’s good relations with President Erdoğan, suggesting that Washington could play a mediating role.

Trump also said in the meeting, “If you have a problem with Türkiye, I believe I can solve it. I hope it won’t be necessary.” Trump, who referred to Erdoğan as “my great friend,” made remarkable statements for Erdoğan: “He achieved what no one has done for 2000 years, he took Syria.”

The normalization process between Türkiye and Israel, which began in mid-2023, was interrupted by the large-scale military operation launched by Israel in Gaza on October 7.

The Israel Manufacturers Association has warned that the 17% tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on Israeli products could deal a $2.3 billion blow to the Israeli economy, potentially causing between 18,000 and 26,000 job losses.

This warning came hours before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s departure to Washington.

While Israel had hoped to avoid the tariffs announced by Trump, it removed all taxes on goods imported from the US last week. However, it still faces a 17% tariff from the US.

According to The Times of Israel, Israel Manufacturers Association President Dr. Ron Tomer, in a letter to Netanyahu, requested an urgent initiative with the Trump administration to remove these tariffs by using all possible means.

According to the analysis published by the association and presented to Netanyahu, if the tariff remains at 17%, Israel’s exports will suffer a $2.3 billion loss, and between 18,000 and 26,000 Israelis will be at risk of losing their jobs.

The association also warned that if Trump expands the tariffs to include the pharmaceutical and chip sectors, which have not yet been affected, the damage to Israel’s exports could reach $3 billion.

The areas expected to be most affected include biotechnology, plastics, metals, chemicals and fuels, and high technology, including robotics and electronic components.

The US is Israel’s largest trading partner. In 2024, the US imported over $13.5 billion worth of products from Israel.

Tomer stated in his letter that the tariffs could negatively impact Israel’s overall economic competitiveness, its capacity to attract investment, and its technological superiority. In a worse-case scenario, taxes on electronic products could also directly and negatively affect the export of software and IT services, he warned.

“In light of the expected serious consequences, the government needs to prevent the implementation of these tariffs by using all the diplomatic and economic tools at its disposal,” said Tomer, arguing that the damage to the Israeli economy could be prevented with decisive and rapid steps.

According to ten senior commanders and officials who spoke to Reuters, some Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq, known as Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), are prepared to lay down their arms for the first time to avoid a potential conflict with the US administration under President Donald Trump. Sources, including six local commanders from four major militia organizations, indicate that this move to de-escalate tensions follows private warnings issued by US officials to the Iraqi government since Trump took office in January. The US conveyed to Baghdad that these groups could face airstrikes if they are not disbanded.

Izzat al-Shahbandar, a Shiite politician close to the Iraqi government, told Reuters that discussions between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and militia leaders are “very advanced,” and the groups are responding positively to the US call for disarmament. “These groups are not being stubborn. They are aware that they could be targets of US attacks,” said Shahbandar.

The report stated that the six commanders who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity are from the following groups: Kata’ib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Brigades), Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (Movement of the Noble Ones), Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades), and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (Supporters of God’s Loyalists). A commander from Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the most influential organizations, allegedly said, “Trump is ready to take this war to a worse point. We want to prevent this disaster.”

According to the report, militia commanders stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has authorized them to take all necessary steps to avoid a devastating conflict with the US and Israel.

These organizations, part of the Iraqi Islamic Resistance, possess approximately 50,000 fighters and long-range missiles. Citing two security officials, Reuters reports that the Iraqi Islamic Resistance is “a key pillar of Iran’s regional proxy network.”

These organizations have claimed responsibility for dozens of missile and drone attacks targeting US interests in Israel and Syria since October 7.

Farhad Alaeddin, Prime Minister Sudani’s foreign policy advisor, told Reuters that the government aims to bring all weapons under state control and intends to achieve this “through constructive dialogue with various national actors.”

Two security officials close to the Sudani government reported that the prime minister is insistent on disarming all militias affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or the Quds Force.

According to officials and commanders, since mid-January, some groups have largely evacuated their headquarters and reduced their presence in major cities such as Mosul and Anbar, fearing airstrikes. It was also noted that many commanders have increased security measures during this time, changing their cell phones, vehicles, and residences more frequently.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that there have been instances in the past where militias have ceased attacks due to US pressure, but doubts remain about whether any disarmament will be long-term.

Shahbandar noted that a final agreement with the militia organizations has not yet been reached, and the disarmament mechanism is still under discussion. Options such as transforming the militias into political parties or integrating them into the Iraqi army are being considered.

Reuters included the following assessments in the report:

While the fate of any disarmament process remains uncertain, the discussions still indicate that the militias are preparing for the first time to yield to long-standing Western pressure.

This shift coincides with a fragile period for the “Axis of Resistance” that Tehran has built over decades. Iran’s regional proxy forces have been significantly impacted by the war that began after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been subjected to heavy Israeli attacks, and the Houthis in Yemen have been targeted by US air operations. The decline of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has also weakened Tehran’s influence.

Iraq is trying to balance its policies regarding militias with both Washington and Tehran. These groups were formed with Iran’s financial and military support after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and have grown into a force capable of rivaling the national army over time.

According to two government officials and two security sources, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, shortly after the start of American attacks on the Houthis, requested in a phone call with Prime Minister Sudani on March 16 that he prevent the militias from launching retaliatory attacks on Israel and US bases in the region in support of their allies.

Since the start of the Gaza war, Iraq-based militias have carried out dozens of drone and rocket attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas and killed three US soldiers in a drone operation near the Syrian border in Jordan last year.

Sudani’s former advisor, Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, stated on state television, “The US has long wanted these militias to be disbanded, but this time Washington may not accept ‘no’ for an answer. If we do not comply voluntarily, it may be imposed on us from the outside and by force.”